Olivia Siong Channel NewsAsia 22 Jun 13;
SINGAPORE: Singaporeans were greeted with blue skies on Saturday afternoon after days of unhealthy and hazardous PSI levels.
The day's three-hour reading reached a high of 326 at 10am before dropping to 73 at 5pm and 6pm, the lowest recorded for the day.
Singapore leaders have however urged citizens to be prepared for a prolonged period of haze, with Minister of Environment and Water Resources Vivian Balakrishnan saying that the blue skies are likely to be temporary.
The National Environment Agency (NEA) said the improvement on Saturday was due to a temporary area free of dense haze upwind of Singapore and transient changes in local wind conditions.
Hazy conditions can still be expected on Sunday as dry conditions and winds blowing from the southwest or west persist.
The 24-hour PSI reading for Sunday is expected to be in the “very unhealthy” range of 201-300.
NEA has also advised vulnerable groups like the elderly, children and people with chronic lung and heart diseases to avoid all outdoor activity on Sunday. They should wear an N95 mask if prolonged outdoor activity is unavoidable.
Healthy people should avoid prolonged or strenuous outdoor physical exertion.
The Ministry of Environment and Water Resources said there are sufficient N95 masks nationally, and that people should only buy them when required and not stockpile.
NEA added that there were 118 hotspots detected in Sumatra on Saturday. This is an increase from the 19 hotspots detected on Friday.
However it added that the low number of hotspots detected on Friday may be due to heavy cloud cover, and that it does not necessarily co-relate with the PSI levels seen in Singapore.
- CNA/jc
Short lived respite from haze
Woo Sian Boon Today Online 23 Jun 13;
SINGAPORE - All over the island today, people basked in the clear skies in the afternoon - which appeared suddenly after the three-hour Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) reading hit 326 at 10am - and embraced the sunshine, some returning to their favourite outdoor activities after being cooped up to avoid the haze.
But the respite - which was attributed to a temporary change of wind conditions in Singapore - was to be short lived. At the daily briefing today, the National Environment Agency (NEA) said the good visibility - the quality of the air remained poor as the PM2.5 concentration was still much higher than the normal levels - would only last “a few hours”.At 4pm,the 24-hour PM2.5 concentration, or very fine particulate matter, was between 207 and 246 micrograms per cubic metre - much higher than the normal levels of between 20 and 40 micrograms per cubic metre - the authorities warned that the public should still be wearing N95 masks if prolonged or outdoor activity is unavoidable.
Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources Deputy Secretary Tan Gee Keow said: “This is yet another example of the three-hour PSI versus the 24-hour PSI readings. Within three hours, you may see blue skies but over time, these conditions will change.”
Referring to the Government’s advisories, Ms Tan said: “We’ve always given it based on 24-hour PSI, because that’s what the science and research is based on - the 24-hour exposure.”
The Singapore Metrological Service’s Patrica Ee explained that the change in wind conditions caused a “less-dense” portion of the haze plume to be blown over the Republic.
However, as dry weather conditions and winds blowing from the southwest or western direction continue to persist, hazy conditions are likely to return tomorrow.
Despite the respite, the NEA said that the 24hr PSI remained in the unhealthy range (201 to 300) today and it is expected to stay the same range tomorrow.
There were 118 hotspots detected today. There were only 19 detected yesterday but the low number was because of the thick cloud cover which affected the detection.
During the briefing, the Ministry of Health’s Group Director of Public Health Derrick Heng also allayed public concern that PM2.5 particulates would be lodged in the lungs and may lead to cancer.
He said: “It is true that some of the smaller particles may be absorbed in the lungs, and that’s where they may cause some irritation and inflammation… but I won’t go so far as to say that they will... be in (the lungs) forever.”
Ms Tan also reiterated that there are sufficient N95 masks “to go around nationally” and that there is no need for healthy persons to “go into a panic” and stockpile masks.
She said: “The reason why we are putting up the advisories and these air quality measurements is to make plain and transparent what’s going on. People should only buy masks when required as per some of the situations stated in the health advisories. If you are a healthy person, there is no need to stockpile.”
For tomorrow, the authorities advise healthy persons to avoid prolonged or strenuous outdoor physical exertion, while N95 masks are only required to be worn if strenuous activities outdoors cannot be avoided.
The elderly, pregnant women, and children as well as persons with chronic lung disease, heart disease or stroke should avoid outdoor activities and wear N95 masks if these are unavoidable.
Singapore gets a breather
Grace Chua Environment Correspondent Straits Times 23 Jun 13;
Singapore enjoyed its first glimpse of blue skies in a week as the three-hour Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) fell to 73 yesterday.
People were out and about lapping up the brief respite in the afternoon from the haze but the bad news is: It's only temporary.
Winds had pushed the thick plume of haze over Singapore northwards and eastwards, so that the island state lay under a small gap in the enveloping smoke.
As the skies cleared around 4pm, people emerged to play sports or visit outdoor attractions.
Tourist Ashok Saxena, 49, from New Delhi, was at the end of his holiday here and had been frustrated by the haze till yesterday, when he finally managed to visit Gardens By The Bay. "We're trying to make the most of the remaining time here and it's good that the skies are clearing up," he said.
But as fires in Sumatra continue to burn, the weather remains dry, and the wind blows haze over from the west and south-west, the air quality here is likely to remain bleak in the days ahead.
The 24-hour PSI, a measure of air quality, is expected to be in the "Very Unhealthy" range of 201 to 300, at least until 6pm today. That means children, the elderly, pregnant women and those with heart or lung disease should avoid all outdoor activity. The elderly and ill should wear N95 masks if they cannot avoid outdoor activity.
Those who are healthy should avoid prolonged and strenuous outdoor activity.
Additional reporting by Walter Sim
Haze draws scientists to Orchard Road
Lim Yan Liang Straits Times 23 Jun 13;
Shoppers along Orchard Road yesterday afternoon may have encountered an odd sight: two "ghost-busters" equipped with handheld and backpack scanners.
Actually research scientists, Mexican Erik Velasco and Swiss Gideon Aschwanden, from the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology, have collected pollutant data along Orchard Road every weekday for nearly two months for an ongoing project. They went out to log information on a Saturday for the first time yesterday as they felt the haze would offer too useful a data set to pass up.
"The haze has provided us with some very interesting information," said Dr Velasco, 39, with what looked like a futuristic iron in each hand.
One machine measures the number of dust particles in the air, while the other breaks them down by size: from PM10, the particles measured by PSI readings all the way down to tiny PM1 particles that are especially dangerous.
For example, Dr Velasco said their readings found that at the peak of the haze on Friday evening, there were some 15 times as many pollutants in the air compared to just a fortnight ago.
Cars and industry, which have always been major contributors of pollutants, are now contributing less than 10 per cent to pollution.
"At least for now, wildfires are the main contributor of pollution," he said.
They said Singaporeans who believe shopping centres would provide some respite would be wrong - particle levels in malls are seldom much lower than outdoors because of human traffic, restaurants, and air filters that are cleaned only occasionally.
Both researchers stressed their data was preliminary and variables had to be factored in, but they have collected data in Orchard Road over 20 times.
Asked for a health tip before parting ways - the scientists were testing different forms of public transport - they stressed the importance of wearing N95 masks correctly.
"Remember, air takes the path of least resistance," smiled Dr Aschwanden, 29, whose 8kg backpack had sensors tracking everything from GPS and temperature to hydrocarbons, humidity and pressure.
A cloud over economic growth prospects
Fiona Chan Senior Economics Correspondent
Straits Times 23 Jun 13;
Singapore's worst-ever haze is casting a pall over not only its skyline, but also the prospects for its economic growth this year.
Economic watchers are starting to total up the possible damage to the Republic's economy after Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong last week raised the possibility that the haze might last for several weeks or more.
"The main thing to watch will be the duration of the haze. If it continues through to end-August, when the dry season is likely to end, then the cumulative impact will be quite large," said UOB economist Francis Tan.
He estimates that if the haze lasts for most of the third quarter, that could shave off 0.3 to 0.5 percentage point from his current forecast of 3 per cent economic growth this year.
This forecast is on the high side of the Government's official tip of 1 to 3 per cent growth.
A 0.3 percentage point cut in Mr Tan's projection works out to about $1.1 billion in real gross domestic product, he said.
Using another measure, Barclays economist Joey Chew suggests any estimate of the haze's cost should start at $300 million a month, which works out to about 1 per cent of monthly GDP.
This would be the loss if tourism revenue declines 10 per cent and retailers and dining joints lose another 10 per cent in domestic sales, Ms Chew said.
"The costs escalate if the situation starts affecting construction and other parts of manufacturing," she added.
"Our initial assessment is the haze could have quite a limited impact on the economy, but the situation is fluid now and it's hard to tell."
The sectors likely to be worst hit are tourism and services, as people stay indoors just as Singapore gears up for the annual summer holidays and the Great Singapore Sale.
"We are already seeing high levels of complaints from visitors and people starting to leave early," said PwC partner See Hong Pek.
"If the haze continues, this will be felt further through cancellations and, in a worst-case scenario, flight cancellations or re-routing."
For every potential tourist who avoids Singapore, the economy will lose $1,500 - the estimated average tourist expenditure here, said CIMB economist Song Seng Wun. Tourism makes up 5 to 6 per cent of a year's economic output.
If the smog lasts, the impact will also spread to other "outdoor" industries such as construction and ship building, Mr See said.
Construction accounts for about 7 per cent of GDP, while transport engineering - which covers aerospace, marine and offshore engineering and land transport - makes up another 3 per cent.
Then there is the indirect impact on economic activity as people modify their usual behaviour as a result of the haze, said DBS economist Irvin Seah.
"If schools and childcare centres have to be closed, workers with children will have to go on leave, on top of those taking medical leave," he said.
Health-care costs will increase and productivity will suffer as a result of people taking leave, working less efficiently or leaving work earlier, added Mr Paul Kent, director of economics and regulation, at KPMG in Singapore.
One way to gauge the impact of the ongoing haze on the economy is to compare it to previous smog situations.
The 2006 haze was estimated to have cost US$50 million (S$64.3 million) while the cost of the 1997 haze was put at US$300 million, brokerage CLSA said in a report. It added that those estimates seemed low when taking into account both the direct and indirect costs of the haze.
In any case, most economists agree that the haze will prove more expensive to Singapore's economy this time.
"The cost will most likely be worse than in previous episodes given the relative severity of the air pollution this time," said Mr Seah.
"In addition, sectors directly affected by the haze, such as tourism, now contribute a larger share of GDP."
The timing of the haze also hits just as Singapore's economy is feeling the drag of the United States' impending exit from its stimulus policy and China's growth slowdown.
Coming on top of domestic restructuring pains, this means that even a small drag could prove significant for the economy's already tepid growth outlook this year.
CIMB's Mr Song noted that in the last serious haze episode, in 1997, the economy was faring much better before the Asian financial crisis.
"The haze barely made a dent on full-year growth, which was about 10 per cent," he said. "But we have less room this time. Much will depend on the severity of this latest episode."
Still, in the bigger scheme of things, economists do not expect the whole economy to be derailed by the haze.
"The full-year projection of 1 to 3 per cent growth can still be achieved because we are likely to see a strong rebound in activities in the fourth quarter, led by the return of tourists and the construction sector," said Mr Song.
"Recall the Bangkok floods 2011: there was a big hit to the economy in the fourth quarter but then a big rebound in the first quarter of 2012."
The burning question
Crisp satellite images help point to severity and location of haze-causing fires
Chang Ailien Straits Times 23 Jun 13;
Q: How long has the Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing (Crisp) been monitoring the haze-causing fires?
We've been monitoring the forest fires and haze via a suite of satellites for 16 years now. Apart from 1997 - when the severe El Nino conditions saw widespread fires in Indonesia and Borneo blazing out of control - the number of hot spots and the size of the fires have remained pretty constant from year to year. The same holds true this year; it's not an El Nino year.
(El Nino, a weather phenomenon which results in the warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, is associated with higher than normal temperatures and diminished rainfall.)
Q: How accurate are these satellite images?
We are able to see anything 50cm or larger. On a daily basis, we use the low-resolution, wide-coverage satellites to scan the whole region for hot spots. If these are detected, our system automatically notifies us. We then search for suitable high-resolution satellite passes to capture detailed imagery over the hot spots. These high-resolution images, like a telescope, cover a much smaller area: 15km to 60km, compared with 2,300km. We need to steer the satellite to focus on the areas on fire. Crisp scientists then carry out a detailed analysis of the type, severity and location of fires and haze using the high-resolution imagery.
Q: Why is the haze so severe this time?
On the ground, the fires now are nowhere near the size and severity of those in 1997 but, this time, we have been unlucky because the winds brought the haze over to Singapore. Then, wild fires and human burning hit Sumatra, Kalimantan, East Malaysia and Brunei. At this time, only the Riau province has large clusters of fires.
Generally, during the south- west monsoon, the winds push the pollutants from the Riau fires further up north, bypassing Singapore altogether and sparing us. The Riau fires almost never affect us. But this year, there was a sudden tropical storm off Taiwan and a smaller storm in the South China Sea, which altered the course of the wind and directed it straight to Singapore. At the same time, the storms are drawing the clouds and moisture away from this region, and creating the perfect hot dry conditions for burning. Without moisture in the air, rain-seeding will not work.
Q: Who is to blame?
As we can see from our images, the fires are in the forest fringes and from plantations. We can see rectangular grids, some with rows of crops on fire. There are even man-made canals in the forest, possibly used for controlling the fire. We have the exact coordinates of all the fires, which we also send to the National Environment Agency. This information can be matched with concession maps showing who owns the land.
Q: What can we expect next?
The storms are weakening and weather experts expect them to dissipate early in the week. When this happens, we should get some respite, as the wind will hopefully change direction and we could get some rain. Traditionally, we've always been more concerned about the hot spots in South Sumatra that come to life around July and August, as the winds then could bring some haze towards Singapore. Right now, we are experiencing only the start of the burning season, so there could be more haze to come. Hopefully, we will get favourable wind conditions that will channel the haze away from Singapore.
Q: What's the damage on the ground in Indonesia?
What some call damage, others call development. Crisp did a study of regional deforestation recently. Using mainly satellite images, we generated a regional land cover map, one for the year 2000 and one for 2010. Our studies showed that Indonesia had lost 10 per cent of its total forests - an area more than 120 times the size of Singapore - to commercial use over the decade. This includes close to 20 per cent of its peat swamps. A lot of the forests are cleared with fires, which results in carbon being released into the air. This is particularly so for peat swamps, which are huge carbon stores.
The effects on global warming are likely to be huge but scientists are still working hard to quantify them. Indonesia is also home to one of the world's largest forests. The destruction of forests and peat swamps is a tremendous loss to biodiversity.
ailien@sph.com.sg
KWOH LEONG KEONG
Mr Kwoh Leong Keong, 55, is the director of the Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing (Crisp) at the National University of Singapore.
Crisp has operated a remote sensing satellite ground station since 1995 to acquire images of the earth's surface, getting data from more than 10 satellites.
The satellites orbit 600km to 800km above the earth, circling the globe about 16 times daily at tremendous speeds of about 25,000kmh.
Pictures are sent via microwaves to the centre's ground station. Crisp can produce full-resolution images a mere 10 minutes after a satellite has passed a location. The centre conducts research in the processing, analysis and applications of satellite remote sensing data.
It has used this information in ocean and coastal studies and in environmental monitoring, including the daily monitoring of the regional forest fires.
Mr Kwoh is credited with playing a key role in establishing and upgrading the Crisp remote sensing ground station. A trained surveyor, he has an engineering science master's degree in remote sensing.
He is married with two sons, university students aged 23 and 21.
Background story
HAZE AND YOUR HEALTH
Dr See Kay Choong, a consultant at the National University Hospital's (NUH) division of respiratory and critical care medicine, gives some tips on how to cope with the haze.
Q: Should I wear a mask?
Yes, you need one which can filter out microscopic particles effectively. The N95 has been scientifically proven to do so.
The N95 mask can be used again but you need to ensure that it is not soiled, wet or damaged, or distorted. Once the shape is deformed, it no longer protects the user. Keep the N95 in a clean bag if you want to reuse it.
A regular surgical mask won't help, even if you wear two of them.
Most surgical masks do not effectively filter small particles from the air and do not prevent leakage around the edge of the mask when the user inhales.
If you cannot get hold of the N95 mask or an equivalent type like the R95, try to stay indoors and keep the air-conditioner on.
Q: What about working out?
Exercising outdoors when the PSI level is above 100 will negate any beneficial effects of the workout.
The best thing you can do is to stay indoors and have minimal contact with the external environment.
If the haze persists for a week or more, consider getting an air purifier.
Q: How can the haze affect me?
For the normal man in the street, short-term exposure of a few minutes with minimal activity is unlikely to have any lasting harmful effects.
But staying in the haze for longer periods could irritate and inflame your airways, lungs and eyes.
Studies have also shown that the haze can cause inflammation of other parts of the body and worsen existing lung and heart ailments.
Q: What symptoms can I expect?
You may get a runny nose, and those prone to asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease could see their condition worsening.
Your eyes could feel gritty and uncomfortable. You can alleviate the discomfort by rinsing them with water or eye-wash lotions.
Drink water to relieve throat irritation.
In the hospitals, we are prepared to see more patients with upper respiratory tract infections, rhinitis and asthma.
Keep in mind that some of the symptoms may not appear immediately, but could take a few days to show up.
Q: When should I get worried?
Seek medical help immediately if you have severe breathlessness or chest discomfort, particularly if you have a pre-existing illness.
Chang Ailien
