Imelda Saad Channel NewsAsia 25 Sep 14;
SINGAPORE: The Republic’s population grew 1.3 per cent between June 2013 and June 2014 - its slowest rate of growth in the last 10 years, according to figures released by the National Population and Talent Division (NPTD) on Thursday (Sep 25).
In actual figures, Singapore’s total population was 5.47 million as of June, up from 5.4 million a year ago, the NPTD said in its annual Population in Brief report.
The citizen population grew 0.9 per cent to 3.34 million, similar to last year’s growth rate, while the Permanent Resident (PR) population stood at 527,700, down from 531,200 the year before.
The Government plans to continue taking in between 15,000 and 25,000 new citizens each year to keep the citizen population from shrinking, the NPTD report said. To keep the PR population stable, it will grant about 30,000 PRs each year.
Making up the population numbers is an issue of quality as well as quantity, noted Associate Professor Tan Ern Ser, who heads the Social Lab at the Institute of Policy Studies. "I think we have to be concerned that the people we bring in have the qualities and skills needed by the kind of jobs that we have," he said.
"In some sectors it is not just about whether they will bring competition among Singaporeans but also do we have enough people in the first place? Even when we add in Singaporeans, do we even have enough people to service those kind of jobs and industries?"
Measures taken by the Government to mitigate the inflow of foreign manpower saw the growth for the non-resident population slowing to 2.9 per cent, down from 4 per cent the previous year. As of June, there were 1.6 million non-residents in Singapore, up from 1.55 million a year ago.
Foreign employment growth, mainly driven by the construction sector, continues to slow down - it is 3 per cent, compared to nearly 6 per cent the previous year and a peak of 8 per cent between 2011 and 2012.
"We don't expect the Government to relax the foreign workforce policy, especially for the non-construction sector. This is with the view to force the businesses to restructure their production process to raise their productivity," said Associate Professor Tan Khee Giap, Co-Director of the Asia Competitiveness Institute at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
This is in line with the latest policy to ensure Singaporeans and PRs are benefiting from Placed-and-Train programme, he said. "If this scheme is successful then it can help to mitigate the restrictive foreign workforce policy. Singaporeans and PRs are being encouraged to work in sectors with higher productivity, through on-the-job training or internships while they are in polytechnic or even university."
MORE ELDERLY, FEWER BABIES
Singaporeans are living longer, with the number of citizens aged 65 years old and above rising from 11.7 per cent last year to 12.4 per cent in 2014.
The report also found that there are fewer working citizens to support the growing number of elderly. There are currently 5.2 working citizens for each elderly person, down from 7.6 in 2004.
Fewer Singaporeans got married, with the number of marriages involving at least one citizen decreasing from 23,192 in 2012 to 21,842 in 2013. The median age at first marriage has remained stable for both genders, with men getting married at the median age of 30.1 and women at 27.8.
Fewer babies were born, with the resident total fertility rate dipping from 1.29 in 2012 to 1.19 last year. The decline was seen across all ethnic groups, with Chinese experiencing the largest decline, the report said.
- CNA/cy/xy
Population hits 5.47m but growth slowest in a decade
Neo Chai Chin Today Online 26 Sep 14;
SINGAPORE — Singapore society continued to age in the past year, as the Republic’s total population grew at its slowest in a decade, rising 1.3 per cent to reach 5.47 million in June.
The proportion of citizens aged 65 and above inched up to 12.4 per cent this year, up from 11.7 per cent last year. Citizens’ median age increased to 40.4 years, up from 40 last year.
The statistics were released yesterday by the National Population and Talent Division (NPTD) in its the annual Population in Brief report.
It also showed that the number of citizens rose by 0.9 per cent in the past year to 3.34 million, through births and immigration. There were 20,572 individuals granted citizenship last year, and 31,017 citizen births. The number of permanent residents held steady at 0.53 million.
The number of non-residents — largely comprised of foreigners working here and their families, as well as students — rose by 2.9 per cent, slower than the 4 per cent the previous year.
The NPTD said foreign employment growth — driven mainly by the construction sector — was 3 per cent, “a more sustainable pace” compared with the 5.9 per cent the previous year. Two-thirds of the increase in foreign labour in the past year, or about 22,000 out of about 33,000, was from construction, statistics showed.
Businesses will face a tight labour market going forward as the economy restructures, but Singapore will remain business-friendly and the Government will help businesses to grow and succeed here, said the NPTD. The slowdown in total population growth was the result of moderation in foreign employment growth, which the Government has taken concrete steps to achieve, it added.
Asked if Singapore’s economic growth projections -- 3 to 5 per cent annually until 2020 -- were sustainable in the face of slowing inflow of non-residents and a rapidly ageing citizen population, economist Shandre Thangavelu said the impact of an ageing population was felt even with a rapid increase in the foreign population. “In fact, there is no conclusive evidence that ageing will lead to slower or falling productivity growth as older workers have inherent acquired skills that will allow them to adapt and adopt to economic situations much better,” said Associate Professor Shandre, Regional Director of Southeast Asia at the University of Adelaide’s Institute of International Trade, who is based in Singapore. Slower diffusion of technology is possible, but the workforce is getting more educated. Singapore is reaching a stage of growth that requires effective use of all available resources including older workers, to maintain competitiveness and sustainable growth, he said.
Whether economic growth projections can be sustained depends a lot on achieving higher productivity, said DBS economist Irvin Seah. But instead of measuring productivity by output per worker, Singapore could use real median income instead. “In a small country where the economy is largely driven by external demand, (using a) GDP-per-worker measurement is totally off,” he said. “If you believe a person should be paid based on his productivity, his work rate, then wages is a measurement of his productivity.”
Immigration helps to balance the shrinking and ageing of the citizen population, said the NPTD. Four in 10 of new permanent residents last year were aged 21 to 30, while just over four in 10 new citizens last year were aged 20 and below. The number of overseas Singaporeans, meanwhile, increased to 212,200 this year, up from 207,000 last year.
On the population trends, National University of Singapore sociologist Tan Ern Ser said: “There are obvious benefits to having smaller population growth, but there are costs as well. We cannot always have our cake and eat it, sadly.”
Singapore population growth hits 10-year low: government
AFP AsiaOne 25 Sep 14;
SINGAPORE - Singapore's population grew at its slowest pace in a decade in the 12 months to June as the government tightened the inflow of foreign workers, official figures showed Thursday.
The statistics department said the city-state had a total population of 5.47 million people as of the end of June, up 1.3 per cent from the year before.
"This was the slowest growth in the last decade, driven by slower growth in non-resident population," it said.
The number of citizens stood at 3.34 million, up a slight 0.9 per cent from the year before, while those with permanent residency fell 0.7 per cent to 527,700, the department said in its latest population trends report.
According to the statistics, over 29 per cent of Singapore's population comprises "non-residents" - those working, studying or living in the country but not granted permanent residency.
Including permanent residents, the statistics show that foreigners account for nearly 40 per cent of Singapore's total population.
Complaints from citizens about overcrowding, foreign workers competing with locals for jobs and resentment over the bad habits of foreigners has made immigration a hot-button issue on the affluent but space-constricted island.
With the complaints becoming more strident especially on social media, the government has taken steps to slow down foreign hiring and the granting of permanent residency status.
The discontent spilled into the 2011 general elections when the ruling party garnered its lowest-ever vote count after more than 50 years in power, and analysts say it remains a key issue for the next election, which must be held before January 2017.
Singapore's fertility rate also fell to 1.19 babies per woman in 2013 from 1.29 in 2012, well below the 2.1 babies needed to naturally replenish the native-born population, the report said.
In January, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong urged young Singaporean couples to get off to a "galloping start" in the Lunar Year of the Horse by having more babies to boost the flagging birth rate.
Population grows to 5.47m, at slowest pace in 10 years
Kelly Tay The Business Times AsiaOne 26 Sep 14;
[SINGAPORE] The Republic's population growth has slid to its lowest in a decade, fertility rates have fallen further, and ageing continues at a rapid pace.
While these may have negative repercussions on the economy, some economists say the situation may not be as dire as generally predicted, since more older citizens are opting to work past retirement age.
Latest government figures released by the National Population and Talent Division (NPTD) on Thursday show that the total population grew at its slowest pace in 10 years, expanding just 1.3 per cent to 5.47 million as of June this year.
The easing in total population growth was driven by slower expansion in the non-resident population, which now stands at 1.6 million - an increase of 2.9 per cent compared to 4 per cent a year ago. This was, in turn, a result of the government's tight restrictions on foreign labour inflows, which saw foreign employment growth slow to 3 per cent versus 5.9 per cent the previous year.
By granting 20,000 new citizens and 30,000 new permanent residents (PRs) annually in the past few years, the government has kept immigration numbers stable. This is even as the citizen population continues to age, and as Singaporeans have fewer than enough babies to replace themselves. With increasing life expectancy and low fertility rates, there are more citizens in the older age groups today. The proportion of citizens aged 65 years and above rose to 12.4 per cent in 2014 from 11.7 per cent a year ago, while the median age of Singaporeans increased to 40.4 years from 40 years previously. This means the old-age support ratio - which is the number of citizens in the working age band of 20 to 64 needed to support one older citizen - is shrinking rapidly.
It fell from 11.4 in 1980 to 8.4 in 2000, before sinking further to 5.2 in 2014. At the same time, the resident total fertility rate (TFR) fell to 1.19 in 2013 from 1.29 in 2012, which was a "dragon year" on the Chinese zodiac. While NPTD said that the dip from 2012 to 2013 was gentler compared to previous post-dragon years, the overall TFR of 1.19 is far below the replacement level of 2.1.
Taken on their own, the latest population statistics paint a rather grey picture of Singapore's future. A shrivelling old-age support ratio would mean greater pressure on the working population and more stress on fiscal policy - worrying trends which population experts have long flagged.
But some economists told The Business Times that not all is doom and gloom.
Said UOB economist Francis Tan: "The support ratio worsening is just one side of things. Other factors are also at play here: the government is incentivising older workers to stay employed; people are questioning whether their retirement savings are enough so they're continuing to work; the government's foreign worker quotas are forcing companies to provide higher wages and that has enticed more elderly people at the margins to join the job market.
"Taken together, these conditions should make us less worried about this scary 5.2 old-age support ratio. I'm not saying the downward trend is not a concern, but I think we can't look at population numbers purely on their own - we need to look at labour market trends too." Indeed, according to figures from the Ministry of Manpower (MOM), the total labour force participation rate of residents aged 65-69 have increased dramatically from a decade ago. While this stood at 19.5 per cent in 2003, it climbed to 27.5 per cent five years later in 2008, before spiking up to 40.2 per cent in 2013.
And amid the tight labour market, MOM said in January this year that the labour force participation rate rose to a new high in 2013, driven by women and older residents.
Noted OCBC economist Selena Ling: "If the retirement age changes to 67, that will skew the ratio for sure as more elderly (persons) rejoin the workforce.
Then the reality may not be as bad as what the (population) numbers suggest."
Still, Mr Tan, Ms Ling, and other economists are concerned about the nation's lacklustre fertility rate and swiftly ageing population.
Said DBS economist Irvin Seah: "This demographic shift is perhaps the biggest challenge facing Singapore...
The situation isn't easy to reverse, and it will take more than conventional economic policy to resolve.
Mindsets will have to change."
