Luc Cohen PlanetArk 14 Aug 15;
A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday raised the likelihood that El Nino conditions would last into the Northern Hemisphere's early spring to 85 percent, boosting the probability that drought-stricken California could see increased rains.
The Climate Prediction Center, a National Weather Service agency, last month forecast an 80 percent chance that conditions would last through early spring. The CPC still says there is a more than 90 percent chance that El Nino conditions would last through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
The new forecast marginally raises the risk that the El Nino phenomenon, the warming of Pacific sea-surface temperatures, will unleash a period of extreme and potentially damaging weather across the globe.
Past instances have caused heavy rains and floods, hitting grain crops in South America, and scorching weather as far as Asia and East Africa.
But one potential El Nino beneficiary could be California, where record-low rainfall has prompted water usage restrictions and contributed to the spread of devastating wildfires.
"It definitely would increase the likelihood of heavy rains in the winter there, which would certainly improve their situation tremendously," said Donald Keeney, senior agricultural meteorologist with Maryland-based MDA Weather Services.
California could begin to get increased rainfall as early as October and definitely by November or December, Keeney said.
Rainfall will probably not increase in the Pacific Northwest states of Oregon and Washington, which are also suffering from droughts, although they could experience higher temperatures like much of the northern United States, Keeney said.
The CPC said the effects of El Nino were likely to remain minimal across the contiguous United States for the rest of the summer but would increase into the late fall and winter.
El Nino would probably contribute to a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, the CPC said. That would reduce the likelihood of storms disrupting energy operations in the Gulf of Mexico.
However, the agency said El Nino was likely to lead to above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and Eastern Pacific hurricane basins.
(Editing by W Simon and Lisa Von Ahn)
Federal experts: This El Nino may be historically strong
SETH BORENSTEIN Associated Press Yahoo News 14 Aug 15;
WASHINGTON (AP) — The current El Nino, nicknamed Bruce Lee, is already the second strongest on record for this time of year and could be one of the most potent weather changers of the past 65 years, federal meteorologists say.
But California and other drought struck areas better not count on El Nino rescuing them like in a Bruce Lee action movie, experts say.
"A big El Nino guarantees nothing," said Mike Halper, deputy director of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. "At this point there's no cause for rejoicing that El Nino is here to save the day."
Every few years, the winds shift and the water in the Pacific Ocean gets warmer than usual. The resulting El Nino (ehl NEEN'-yoh) changes weather worldwide, mostly affecting the United States in winter.
In addition to California, El Nino often brings heavy winter rain to much of the southern and eastern U.S.
It's also likely to make the northern winters warmer and southeastern U.S. winters a bit cooler, but not much, Halpert said. The middle of the U.S. usually doesn't get too much of an El Nino effect, he said.
California's state climatologist Michael Anderson noted that only half the time when there have been big El Ninos has there been meaningfully heavy rains. The state would need 1½ times its normal rainfall to get out of this extended drought and that's unlikely, Halpert said Thursday.
Still, this El Nino is shaping up to be up there with the record-setters, because of incredible warmth in the key part of the Pacific in the last three months, Halpert said. He said the current El Nino likely will rival ones in 1997-1998, 1982-83 and 1972-73.
NASA oceanographer Bill Patzert said satellite measurements show this El Nino to be currently more powerful than 1997-98, which often is thought of as the king. But that one started weaker and finished stronger, he said.
This El Nino is so strong a NOAA blog unofficially named it the "Bruce Lee" of El Ninos after the late movie action hero. The California-based Patzert, who points out that mudslides and other mayhem happens, compares it to Godzilla.
Economic studies favor the hero theme, showing that El Ninos tend to benefit the United States. Droughts and Atlantic hurricanes are reduced. California mudslides notwithstanding, the U.S. economy benefited by nearly $22 billion from that 1997-98 El Nino, according to a study.
El Nino does tend to cause problems elsewhere in the world. And while El Nino often puts a big damper on the Atlantic hurricane season, that means more storms in the Pacific, such as Hawaii, Halpert said. So far this year, tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific is far higher than normal.
NOAA's El Nino page: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
NASA's El Nino page: http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/elnino2015/index.html
