The last three years have been the hottest ever to be recorded
Andrew Griffin The Independent 6 Nov 17;
This year will be the hottest ever that wasn't affected by the El Nino weather event, according to the UN.
The prediction is a shock because El Nino has been used to explain rising temperatures and occasionally to suggest that the temperature isn't warming at all. The new finding shows that the climate is in fact warming rapidly, even without the effect of the El Nino which pushes up temperatures across the world.
Even accounting for that, this year will be one of the three warmest on record. Already, 2016 and 2015 were the hottest years yet.
In an announcement as annual UN climate change talks hosted by Fiji begin in Bonn, Germany, the WMO said the average global temperature from January to September 2017 was 1.1C above the pre-industrial era.
As a result of a powerful El Nino, 2016 is likely to remain the hottest year on record, but 2017 is expected to join 2015 as the second or third hottest year.
The years 2013 to 2017 are likely to be the hottest five-year period on record.
Parts of southern Europe including Italy, North Africa, parts of eastern and southern Africa and the Asian part of Russia experienced record warm conditions.
Other indicators of rising temperatures include Arctic sea ice, which was well below average throughout 2017 and was at record low-levels for the first four months of the year, while sea ice cover in Antarctica also hit record lows.
Globally, sea surface temperatures in 2017 are on track to be among the three highest on record, with some significant coral "bleaching" caused by over-warm oceans, including on Australia's Great Barrier Reef.
Major, high-impact hurricanes battered the US, with Harvey in August, followed by Irma and Maria in September.
Ophelia reached major hurricane status more than 600 miles further north-east than any previous North Atlantic hurricane and caused significant damage in Ireland.
While there is no clear evidence climate change is making hurricanes such as Harvey more or less frequent, it is likely human-induced global warming is making rainfall more intense and rising sea levels worsens storm surges, the WMO said.
During 2017, exceptionally heavy rain caused a landslide in Sierra Leone, many parts of the Indian subcontinent were hit by flooding, as was Peru and area of southern China, while east Africa remained gripped by drought.
Italy saw drought and record temperatures, heatwaves hit parts of South America, eastern Australia and southwest Asia, and wildfires raged in Chile, Portugal and the US.
WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas said: "The past three years have all been in the top three years in terms of temperature records. This is part of a long term warming trend.
"We have witnessed extraordinary weather, including temperatures topping 50C (122F) in Asia, record-breaking hurricanes in rapid succession in the Caribbean and Atlantic reaching as far as Ireland, devastating monsoon flooding affecting many millions of people and a relentless drought in East Africa.
"Many of these events - and detailed scientific studies will determine exactly how many - bear the tell-tale sign of climate change caused by increased greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities," he said.
Additional reporting by Press Association
2017 set to be one of top three hottest years on record
Data so far this year points to 2017 continuing a long-term trend of record breaking temperatures around the world, says World Meteorological Organization
Fiona Harvey in Bonn The Guardian 6 Nov 17;
2017 is set to be one of the hottest three years on record, provisional data suggests, confirming yet again a warming trend that scientists say bears the fingerprints of human actions.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said temperatures in the first nine months of this year were unlikely to have been higher than 2016, when there was a strong El Niño weather system, but higher than anything before 2015.
Petteri Taalas, secretary general of the WMO, said: “The past three years have all been in the top three years in terms of temperature records. This is part of a long term warming trend. We have witnessed extraordinary weather, including temperatures topping 50C in Asia, record-breaking hurricanes in rapid succession in the Caribbean and Atlantic reaching as far as Ireland, devastating monsoon flooding affecting many millions of people and a relentless drought in East Africa.”
He said further detailed scientific studies would be carried out, but that it was already possible to say many “bear the tell-tale sign of climate change” caused by increased greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities, such as burning fossil fuel and deforestation.
This recent increase in average global temperatures confirms a renewed warming trend in recent years, which had slowed its pace slightly in the previous decade, leading some climate sceptics to claim global warming had “paused”.
The results were revealed to delegates at the UN’s global climate talks being held in Bonn, Germany, this week and next. The COP23 talks, a follow-up to the landmark Paris agreement of 2015, will focus on a new process by which countries’ pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions can be toughened, in line with scientific advice.
Current pledges would, according to estimates, leave the world 3C warmer than in pre-industrial times. At that level, sea levels would rise, heatwaves and droughts would become more common in large swathes of the globe, and fiercer storms and floods would become more likely.
Patricia Espinosa, the UN’s climate chief, said the talks showed “unprecedented momentum”, but warned of the consequences of failure.
Recent research also found that the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are now higher than they have been for 800,000 years.
Scientists reacted with concern to the WMO’s findings, which are still provisional and only cover January to September. Martin Siegert, co-director of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College, London, said: “The state of our climate is being reset by humans. What were once one-in-a-hundred-year events are now turning into regular events. We see this in terms of extreme weather impacts, with examples from the south of the US this year. For the future we can expect more of the same.”
Richard Betts, professor of climate impacts at the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: “We expect developing countries to be hit the hardest in terms of human impact. Flooding will be a particular threat in south Asia, particularly due to increased rainfall and rising sea levels, and partly because of the large and growing numbers of people who have little choice about being in harm’s way.”
Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of WMO, said at the Bonn conference that he saw little likelihood of the warming trend being reversed in the short term. “This trend can be expected to continue for the coming 50 years. In this system, once you reach a certain level it does not drop soon.”
