Best of our wild blogs: 11 Dec 08


Full time job opportunities at Acres
Vet and volunteer coordinators wanted, on the Acres website

Orange-bellied Flowerpecker and melastoma
on the Bird Ecology Study Group blog

Nesting saga of Peaceful Doves: Part 6 of 6
on the Bird Ecology Study Group blog

What does a water quality laboratory look like?
on the Water Quality in Singapore blog

More updates on the budak blog
Wade for me and what's storking you and last light at sunset and Gnom gnom gnom

Translocation: mitigating human-elephant conflict in Malaysia
from Wild Asia's People, Travel and Conservation Features

BlueTube
Conservation International’s (CI) YouTube channel, on the MarineBio Blog


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'Sea People': What happened to Singapore's Orang Laut?

Letter to the Straits Times Forum 11 Dec 08;

I WAS delighted to skim through the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies publication, Singapore - The Unexpected Nation" by historian Edwin Lee. It is part of the History of Nation-Building Series. I totally welcome it.

However, I was intrigued that the learned writer found it expedient, in the chapter 'Beginnings: From Temasek to Singapore', to classify, quite explicitly, the Orang Laut as a separate community from the Malays.

I found his words in this regard most intriguing: 'A trading settlement began to form in Singapore in the late 13th century and grew in importance in the 14th century. This was Temasek, whose people were Malays, Orang Laut and Chinese. The Malays were the rulers who opened the port, for trade generates taxes and gifts and attracts foreign traders and people, increasing the population, all of which would contribute to the wealth and prestige of their kingdom. The Orang Laut, Malay for 'Sea People', were directed by the Malay rulers and chiefs to man war fleets and to harvest produce from the resource-rich marine environment.'

Is Dr Lee trying to provoke Singaporeans into searching for the descendants of the Orang Laut because they are part of our history and reportedly were the first to receive Stamford Raffles and introduce him to the Malay ruler in Singapore?

Today, because of the pragmatism of the Government, the Orang Laut live individually in HDB flats in Clementi and elsewhere in Singapore. But what happened to the Orang Laut as a micro Proto-Malay community within the larger Malay community?

There are many names for the Orang Laut, including Orang Kallang, Orang Seletar and Moken. I found their cousins in Pulau Karimun, living in houses on stilts by the sea. The Moken off the southern shores of Myanmar came to light after the tsunami. As the only people in the world to live permanently in the sea, they were quite used to the hazards of such a tough life, but I wonder what happened to them after Cyclone Nargis. The term Moken probably arose from their sale of fish in the delta area of Myanmar. Perhaps it is derived from the term 'mahu ikan' ('want fish').

Coming back to our Orang Laut, a university thesis, The Landed Sea-Gypsies, had been written in the 1970s by a neighbour of mine who spent two years researching the Orang Laut in the region. He stayed with them in the mangrove swamps of Singapore,where they caught fish and crab, reared dogs and moved on rafts. I kept a few of his photos. He also visited their kampungs on the Johor coastline and on Pulau Daik. You can see these kampungs from Pulau Ubin. Some helped to set up fishing kelongs.

I was told by an Orang Laut leader in Pulau Karimun that the Orang Kallang live nearby. Did the Orang Kallang migrate to Singapore from there or was it the other way around? He left me with two lnes from a typical Malay pantun:

Pulau Karimun ayernya sejuk

Jarang jarang mandi pagi

(Pulau Karimun the water is cold

Very seldom bathing in the morning)

From hazy memory, I recollect the last two lines:

Andai jodoh datang menjenguk

Pastikan kita bersua lagi

Perchance Fate peeps

We would certainly meet again.

Zainuddin Mohd Ismail


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Global warming fight: Singapore ranks 38th

Today Online 11 Dec 08;

POZNAN (Poland) — Sweden does the most of any country for tackling emissions of greenhouse gases, while Saudi Arabia does the least, according to a barometer published yesterday by watchdogs at the United Nations climate talks.

But the annual Climate Change Performance Index placed Sweden only fourth on its list, for no prizes were allotted for the top three places.

“Not a single country is to be judged as satisfactory with regard to protecting the climate,” the NGOs Germanwatch and Climate Action Network Europe said. Sweden’s placing was followed by Germany, France, India, Brazil, Britain and Denmark.

The bottom 10 — in descending order — were Greece, Malaysia, Cyprus, Russia, Australia, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, the United States, Canada and Saudi Arabia.

:Singapore came in at 38th, faring worse than Indonesia (27th) and Thailand (35th), but better than Japan (43rd) and China (49th).:

:The Climate Change Performance Index compares 57 states that together emit more than 90 per cent of the world’s annual output of carbon dioxide.

The benchmark is derived from 12 national indicators, based on the emissions level, emissions trend and climate policy. AFP

Sweden cleanest, S. Arabia dirtiest: climate index
Yahoo News 10 Dec 08;

POZNAN (AFP) – Sweden does the most of any country for tackling emissions of greenhouse gases, while Saudi Arabia does the least, according to a barometer published on Wednesday by watchdogs at the UN climate talks here.

But the annual "Climate Change Performance Index" placed Sweden only fourth on its list, for no prizes were allotted for the top three places.

"Not a single country is to be judged as satisfactory with regard to protecting the climate," the NGOs Germanwatch and Climate Action Network (CAN) Europe said.

No country had shown willingness "to engage themselves more strongly" to avoid dangerous climate change, they explained.

The groups categorised dangerous climate change as an increase in temperature beyond two degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial levels.

Sweden's fourth place was followed by Germany, France, India, Brazil, Britain and Denmark.

The bottom 10 were listed in descending order as Greece, Malaysia, Cyprus, Russia, Australia, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, the United States, Canada and Saudi Arabia.

The Climate Change Performance Index compares 57 states that together emit more than 90 percent of the world's annual output of carbon dioxide (CO2), the principal greenhouse gas.

The benchmark is derived from 12 national indicators, based on the emissions level, emissions trend and climate policy.

In last year's index, the top three places were awarded to Sweden, Germany and Iceland and the bottom three to Australia, the United States and Saudi Arabia.

The 2 C (3.6 F) warming target is embraced by the European Union (EU) as well as many green groups. Scientists are generally circumspect, saying there is no guarantee that achieving this figure will avoid inflicting bad damage to Earth's fragile climate system.

Singapore improves in climate-change index
It's now 38th, up from last year's 49th place
Shobana Kesava, Straits Times 12 Dec 08;

SINGAPORE improved on its ranking from last year but still placed 38th out of 57 economies in a climate change performance index released on Wednesday.

The barometer was published in Poznan, Poland, on the sidelines of an annual meeting held by the United Nations to find ways to mitigate climate change.

Last year, Singapore came in 49th.

Officials with the Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources, in Poznan for the 12-day conference that ends today, said they lacked details to assess why Singapore had not done better, despite its push to mitigate climate change.

But they felt that the island's lack of options for renewable energy, such as wind power, and the high volume of international air traffic might have contributed to its relatively low standing.

They conceded it was possible that Singapore's work in oil refining was also a factor.

The index by Germanwatch and Climate Action Network Europe compared 57 states that together emit more than 90 per cent of the world's annual output of carbon dioxide - the measure of greenhouse gases attributed to climate change.

Its benchmark is derived from 12 national indicators based on their emissions level, emission trend and climate policy.

Singapore fared worse than Indonesia (No. 27), but better than Japan (No. 43) and China (No. 49).

In descending order, Sweden, Germany and France were deemed to have done the most for climate change, while the United States, Canada and Saudi Arabia had done the least.

Due to lack of data, the index does not take into account the impact of deforestation, which wipes out the earth's most important carbon sinks. In some of the countries listed, deforestation accounts for more than 10 per cent of their total emissions.

'This may have depressed Singapore's ranking relative to countries in which deforestation and land-use changes account for a significant share of their total emissions,' said a ministry spokesman.

On the bright side, Singapore may have improved on its rankings because of the climate change strategy it unveiled in February.

The measures included a $170 million injection to facilitate research into clean energy sources such as solar power, and campaigns in the media to promote energy efficiency and reduce power usage.

A study has also been commissioned on Singapore's vulnerability to climate change.

The ministry is not hoping to improve on the country's standing in the index ahead of the crucial climate change meeting planned in Copenhagen next year, which will come up with a new international commitment for carbon emission reductions and replace the Kyoto Protocol adopted in Japan in 1997.

Instead, Singapore will continue to balance economic and environmental considerations to ensure it develops in a way which is sustainable and in the interest of Singaporeans. 'Singapore's interests and our responsibilities as a global citizen will drive policy, rather than concerns to improve rankings based on particular indices,' the spokesman said.


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Earth Hour in Singapore

Turning darkness into a green torch
Local businesses to join global effort on March 28 for a lights-out hour
Esther Ng, Today Online 11 Dec 08;

ON THE night of March 28, the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) hopes to get 1 million people in Singapore — not just individuals, but also businesses and even iconic buildings — to turn off the lights for an hour.

They would be joining a targeted 1 billion people, in 1,000 cities around the world, in flicking the switch for Earth Hour, which was first staged last year in Australia.

Earlier this year, a few businesses and scattered individuals in Singapore had joined in the voluntary blackout, but next year marks Singapore’s official participation, alongside more than 370 cities.

Already signed up for the big effort are organisations such as SingTel, Meritus Hotels and Resorts, Microsoft, the National Parks Board, the National University of Singapore and Weber Shandwick.

Marina Mandarin, for instance, will turn off the lights at its facade and all unoccupied rooms during the appointed hour which begins at 8.30pm. Guests will be invited to celebrate Earth Hour as well, with torches in their rooms that they can use.

Said marketing communications manager Rae Tang: “We’ll try to get our outlets, our restaurants and shops to observe as well. For the safety of our guests, the corridors will still be lit, but we’ll be dimming the lights in our atriums and lobbies.”

SingTel will reach out via SMS, Facebook and its MyBill portal to its subscribers and 11,000-odd employees.

WWF Singapore’s managing director Amy Ho said: “It’s a symbolic gesture to raise awareness on climate change among individuals and businesses, and it’s simple enough for everyone to participate.”

But with Earth Hour to fall during a prime time slot on Saturday — when many Singaporeans are expected to be out dining, shopping or partying — how much of an impact would the campaign have?

Earth Hour’s public relations manager Rachel Faulkner said: “All we’re asking is for people to change their behaviour just slightly — it’s only one hour of the whole year. Instead of going out, you can throw a candlelit dinner party at home. Or, you could go to a restaurant that is observing Earth Hour.”

The 8.30pm time slot was picked, she added, as it would be dark enough to make an impact when the lights go off, but not too late for children to participate.

“We hope these challenges will make people think about climate change and how small changes can make a huge difference on an on-going basis, like switching to energy saving appliances,” said Ms Faulkner.

The WWF will be speaking to restaurants, pubs, building owners and businesses to get them involved in Earth Hour.

Food #03, at Rowell Road, is one restaurant that will be taking part.

“We’re already observing Earth Hour. We do that once a month on a Saturday, from 9pm to midnight. And our customers love the ambience,” said director Mr Woon Tien Wee, 33.

First-year undergraduate Cindy Chng will also be participating. The 19-year-old worked with grassroots leaders in Keat Hong constituency to rally residents for a “Shanghai Nights” party held during Earth Hour earlier this year. “More than 500 people turned up and had a good time ... We’ll definitely do something next year,” said Cindy, who had spent this year’s Earth Hour star gazing with friends at the Chinese Gardens.


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Recession a setback for climate change talks

Michael Richardson, Straits Times 11 Dec 08;

OFFICIALS from Singapore and 185 other nations involved in trying to craft a new global climate change treaty are taking part in ministerial-level talks this week in Poznan, Poland. They are trying to narrow disagreements on an action plan to cut the more than 30 billion tonnes of global warming gases being spewed into the atmosphere each year.

The current round of talks is part of a process intended to lead to a final international agreement in Copenhagen in December next year. It was never going to be easy to conclude an effective successor pact to the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. But the difficulty in hammering out an accord among such a large number of countries with such divergent interests has been magnified by the slump in the global economy and the prices of the main fossil fuels - coal, oil and natural gas.

When prices were high for these fuels, it brought them closer to the cost of some renewable energy sources, including wind and solar power. The global recession is expected to reduce the rapid rise in global warming emissions.

But it is likely to be only a temporary respite. The chief concern now is to revive the very same economic growth that is contributing to climate change. Much of this growth will be energy-intensive. It will be based on fossil fuels and involve converting forests to farmland. Energy- related carbon dioxide accounts for 61 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, and forest conversion, about 20 per cent.

The longer and deeper the recession, the more difficult it will be to reach a post-Kyoto deal on comprehensive emission control. There is already intense wrangling over how to share the responsibilities and costs of limiting greenhouse gases because they affect competitive advantage among economies. In the worst case, the talks might collapse. Or they may have to be extended beyond the deadline next December.

China's climate change envoy Yu Qingtai said before the Poznan talks started that he was 'fairly pessimistic' about its prospects. Mr Yvo de Boer, the United Nations climate chief, admitted he was also worried about the outlook as governments focused on keeping their economies afloat. 'There's a risk that less public money will be available in the North for cooperation with the South on technology and capacity building,' he said.

Technology transfer is a make-or- break issue for China, which recently overtook the United States as the single biggest source of greenhouse gases. Dr Wan Gang, the Chinese Minister of Science and Technology, has said that developed economies should speed up the transfer of clean energy technologies to China and other developing nations. The International Energy Agency has calculated that an additional investment of US$44 trillion (S$66 trillion) in technologies to curb greenhouse gas emissions will be needed from 2010 to 2050 to ensure a climate-safe future.

Kyoto set no mandatory targets for developing countries. But now that China, India and other developing economies have emerged as major contributors to global emissions, they are under pressure to join a post-Kyoto accord.

Part of the price for doing so will be the transfer of technology and resources from industrialised countries. Yet, the current economic crisis is likely to result in less aid to developing nations. Even in good economic times, this would have been a difficult undertaking. Mr Robert Dixon, chief of the UN's Global Environment Fund, said that while governments can set policies, technology and resources come overwhelmingly from the private sector. As an example, he noted that 86 per cent of worldwide financial flows linked to clean energy technologies come from private business.

The recent sharp falls in the price of fossil fuels tend to reduce the incentive to switch to more expensive sources of alternative energy. But McKinsey & Co thinks that the best hope of slowing climate change in the current crisis is to promote energy conservation schemes. It reckons that emission-cutting measures, such as better building insulation and lower per-kilometre fuel consumption in vehicles, will pay for themselves over time via lower energy bills.

However, the McKinsey researchers found that the most costly projects, such as capturing carbon dioxide from coal-fired power plants and storing it underground, are likely to be casualties of a prolonged recession. Plans to expand nuclear power to generate electricity may also take a hit. These plants emit no carbon dioxide. But they need a lot of capital investment, which is in short supply now.

The writer is an energy and security specialist at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.


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Fifth of corals dead: only emission cuts can save the rest, says IUCN

IUCN 10 Dec 08;

The world has lost 19 percent of its coral reefs, according to the 2008 global update of the world’s reef status.

The report, released by the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, of which IUCN is a member, shows if current trends in carbon dioxide emissions continue, many of the remaining reefs may be lost over the next 20 to 40 years. This will have alarming consequences for some 500 million people who depend on coral reefs for their livelihoods.

Climate change is considered the biggest threat to coral reefs today. The main climate threats, such as increasing sea surface temperatures and seawater acidification, are being exacerbated by other threats including overfishing, pollution and invasive species.

“If nothing changes, we are looking at a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide in less than 50 years,” says Carl Gustaf Lundin, Head of the IUCN Global Marine Programme, one of the organizations behind the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network. “As this carbon is absorbed, the oceans will become more acidic, which is seriously damaging a wide range of marine life from corals to plankton communities and from lobsters to seagrasses.”

Encouragingly, 45 percent of the world’s reefs are currently healthy. Another sign of hope is the ability of some corals to recover after major bleaching events, caused by warming waters, and to adapt to climate change threats.

However, the report shows that, globally, the downward trend of recent years has not been reversed. Major threats in the last four years, including the Indian Ocean tsunami, more occurances of bleaching, outbreaks of coral diseases and ever-heavier human pressures, have slowed or reversed recovery of some coral reefs after the 1998 mass bleaching event.

“The report details the strong scientific consensus that climate change must be limited to the absolute minimum. If nothing is done to substantially cut emissions, we could effectively lose coral reefs as we know them, with major coral extinctions,” says Clive Wilkinson, Coordinator of the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network.

Corals have a higher chance of survival in times of climate change if other stress factors related to human activity are minimized. Well-managed marine protected areas can also boost the health of coral reefs, but proper enforcement is difficult, especially in remote areas where the most pristine reefs are found.

“Ten years after the world’s biggest coral bleaching event, we know that reefs can recover given the chance. Unfortunately, impacts on the scale of 1998 will reoccur in the near future, and there’s no time to lose if we want to give reefs and people a chance to suffer as little as possible,” says Dr David Obura, Chair of the IUCN Climate Change and Coral Reefs working group and Director of the Coastal Oceans Research and Development in the Indian Ocean Programme (CORDIO) in East Africa.

A new report on the state of Indian Ocean coral reefs, launched today by CORDIO, an organisation aligned with the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, states an overall trend of continued degradation, only alleviated by signs of recovery in some areas.

“With this report, the far-reaching degradation of Indian Ocean coral reefs has become evident,” says Olof Linden of the CORDIO network and Professor at the World Maritime University (WMU), Malmö, Sweden. “To save coral reefs, we must focus on helping corals to adapt to climate change and on diverting people away from destructive practices such as overfishing.”

Benefits of coral reefs
Coral reefs provide food, coastal protection, building materials and income from tourism for half a billion mostly poor people. The fish they provide is their main source of protein; the reefs themselves have proved to be an effective natural barrier against storm surges; and diving tourism is an important source of income.

Fifth of world's corals already dead, say experts
Yahoo News 10 Dec 08;

POZNAN, Poland (AFP) – Almost a fifth of the planet's coral reefs have died and carbon emissions are largely to blame, according to an NGO study released Wednesday.

The report, released by the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, warned that on current trends, growing levels of greenhouse gases will destroy many of the remaining reefs over the next 20 to 40 years.

"If nothing is done to substantially cut emissions, we could effectively lose coral reefs as we know them, with major coral extinctions," said Clive Wilkinson, the organisation's coordinator.

The paper was issued on the sidelines of the December 1-12 negotiations on a new global treaty on climate change, taking place under the UN flag.

Half a billion people around the world depend on coral reefs for food and tourism, according to a common estimate.

Experts say the coral die-off has several causes, including local pollution, overfishing and invasive species.

But, they say, rising ocean temperatures caused by the greenhouse effect, and acidification, caused by the ocean's absorption of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, are probably the biggest triggers.

"If nothing changes, we are looking at a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide in less than 50 years," said Carl Gustaf Lundin, head of the the global marine programme at the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, an umbrella network for more than a 1,000 NGOs and government groups.

"As this carbon is absorbed, the oceans will become more acidic, which is seriously damaging a wide range of marine life from corals to plankton communities and from lobsters to seagrasses."

Nearly half of global coral reefs are still healthy, but the overall downward trend shows no sign of stopping, the study found. It added, though, that the damage could be braked by strong conservation measures, such as properly policed marine parks.

Time running out on coral reefs as climate change becomes increasing threat
EurekAlert 10 Dec 08;

Increasing pressures from climate change will reach a tipping point in less than a decade triggering a significant decline in the health of the planet's coral reef ecosystems according to the findings in an international report issued today.

Released by the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network and the International Coral Reef Initiative, international governmental and scientific partnerships, "Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2008" provides both good and bad news while sounding the call for urgent global action to respond to climate change.

Coral reefs continue to be threatened from direct human activities of pollution and over-fishing, but now the threat of climate change is being recognized as the major threat to the future of reefs around the world. One fifth of the Earth's coral reefs have disappeared since 1950, and a NOAA authored report issued in July states that more that that nearly half of U.S. coral reef ecosystems are considered to be in "poor" or "fair" condition.

"Unless the world gets serious about reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the next few years, it is likely there will be massive bleaching and deaths of corals around the world," notes the report's lead editor and global coral authority Clive Wilkinson who coordinates the Global Coral Monitoring Network in Australia. "This will have significant impacts on the lives of the people in developing countries who are dependent on reefs for food, for tourism, and for protecting the land they live on."

This status report was put together from 370 contributors in 96 countries and states and is the most authoritative report on the world's coral reefs. The report presents regional assessments of the health coral reef ecosystems found throughout the world, the threats they face, and recommendations for action. A new feature of the 2008 reporting is publication of a separate report, "Socioeconomic Conditions along the World's Tropical Coasts: 2008," detailing socioeconomic data on how people use coral reefs in 27 developing tropical coastal countries.

The status report includes satellite date from NOAA's Coral Reef Watch project which measures stress to reefs from temperature globally and resulting bleaching. NOAA recently started tracking ocean acidification changes in the Caribbean.

Frequent or long-term bleaching kills or severely weakens corals, leaving them more vulnerable to disease, and resulting in a sea bottom covered with algae and sponges that may eventually smother remaining coral. Acidification is a growing threat that could imperil the ability of corals to build their skeletons. A number of recent studies demonstrate that ocean acidification is likely to harm coral reefs by slowing coral growth and making reefs more vulnerable to erosion and storms.

In good news the report, which is issued every four years, found that there was major recovery of reefs in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific from climate change induced bleaching events in 1998 - especially those reefs that were in protected areas. Other reefs cited as being in healthy condition included Australian reefs in general, most notably the Great Barrier Reef, the remote reef systems of the Pacific and Indian Ocean that suffer little human impacts and some small areas of the Caribbean.

The report also acknowledges that increased awareness such as that promoted by 2008 being designated "International Year of the Reef" is beginning to have an impact pointing to a series of major conservation initiatives that have been announced in recent years including the Coral Triangle Initiative in Asia, the Micronesia and Caribbean Challenges, and the creation of the two largest marine protected areas in the world: in the Phoenix Islands of Kiribati and the U.S. Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.

In addition to climate change, negative impacts to corals in the past four years included the Indian Ocean tsunami, hurricane damage which combined with bleaching has endangered wide ranges of Caribbean coral reefs, and increasing human activity pressures including pollution, development, deforestation and overfishing in East Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, populated areas of the Pacific and Caribbean. One particular threat is the increase in "bomb" and cyanide fishing in Asia and in Tanzania.

The assessment includes detailed recommendations to preserve and better manage reef ecosystems. Human pollution and fishing pressures have to be reduced while the development of sustainable tourism activities can protect the reefs while stimulating economic growth. The report also encourages increased use of marine protected areas as a means of ensuring reefs can continue to protect important fish nursery areas and serve as reservoirs of marine biodiversity.

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The Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network receives support from governmental and non-governmental organizations including the U.S. Department of State, NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), the World Bank and the WWF (World Wildlife Fund) to publish this survey of the health of the world's coral reefs and diagnoses solutions for halting and reversing their decline.


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Earth Hour to be huge call for climate action

WWF 10 Dec 08;

Poznan, Poland - Dozens of events around the world today marked the launch of the campaign for Earth Hour 2009, a global climate event for which 74 cities in 62 countries have already committed to switch off their lights at 8:30pm on March 28.

The Earth Hour 2009 campaign aims to have more than one billion people in 1,000 cities turn off lights for one hour in a graphic demonstration of support for determined international action on climate change.

A key event is scheduled for Poznan, Poland where world nations are currently meeting under the banner of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are charged with thrashing out a new international climate change agreement which needs to be signed off at next December’s UNFCCC summit.

“When leaders gather in Copenhagen to negotiate a new global deal on climate, they must feel that the eyes of the world are upon them,” said James Leape, Director General of WWF International. “Earth Hour provides an opportunity for the public to send a powerful signal that that they are watching and that they expect action.”

Cities already listed to participate in Earth Hour 2009 include Cape Town, Chicago, Copenhagen, Dubai, Hong Kong, Istanbul, Las Vegas, Lisbon, London, Los Angeles, Manila, Mexico City, Moscow, Nashville, Oslo, Rome, San Francisco, Singapore, Sydney, Toronto, and Warsaw.

Some of the international icons which will go dark for an hour in solidarity include the world’s tallest hotel tower (the Burj Dubaiin Dubai), the tallest towers in the Americas (the CN tower in Toronto) and the southern hemisphere (the Sky Tower in Auckland) and Moscow’s Federation Tower. Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf has confirmed his support for Earth Hour while Quirinale - the official residence of the President of the Italian Republic, Giorgio Napolitano – will also turn its lights off. Other landmarks which plan to merge into the night sky include the normally floodlit Table Mountain over Cape Town, South Africa and the Sydney Opera House.

“The global economic meltdown has demonstrated that the world can unite and take action in times of crisis,” said Kim Carstensen, who leads WWF’s Global Climate Initiative. “That same decisive, multilateral approach is needed as we face the rapidly escalating climate crisis. Turning 'off' for Earth Hour sends a powerful message to our leaders that they must do what’s necessary to secure the future of the Earth.”

Many organizations around the world announced their support for Earth Hour, including the C40 Large Cities Climate Leadership Group.

“The C40 Climate Leadership Group is about cities working together to drive down greenhouse gas emissions and that is why as Chair of the C40 I support Earth Hour,” said Toronto Mayor David Miller. “It's crucial that cities and the public come together to take action against climate change and Earth Hour provides a great platform to do that.”

Malaysian Prime Minister Endorses Global Effort: WWF’s Earth Hour
WWF Malaysia 10 Dec 08;

Kuala Lumpur - Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah bin Ahmad Badawi indicated his support and endorsement of Malaysia’s participation in Earth Hour 2009. To date, 74 cities in 62 countries have committed to switch off for WWF’s Earth Hour in 2009. WWF-Malaysia is currently discussing the potential participation of Malaysian cities in Earth Hour 2009 with relevant authorities. The campaign, which hopes to reach out to more than one billion people in 1,000 cities around the world, asks individuals, businesses and governments to switch off lights for just one hour on Saturday, 28th March 2009 at 8:30pm to create a platform of support for action on climate change.

Earth Hour aims to demonstrate unprecedented solidarity and provide a visual global mandate that will put the heat on world leaders meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009 to strike a new global deal on climate change.

The lights out initiative, which began in Sydney in 2007 as a public awareness raising campaign, has grown significantly over the past two years and now has 74 cities ready to flick the switch in 2009. Cities already committed include Los Angeles, Las Vegas, London, Hong Kong, Sydney, Rome, Manila, Oslo, Cape Town, Warsaw, Lisbon, Singapore, Istanbul, Mexico City, Toronto, Dubai and Copenhagen.

Some of the international icons which will go dark for an hour in solidarity include the world’s tallest hotel tower (the Burj Dubaiin Dubai), the tallest towers in the Americas (the CN tower in Toronto) and the southern hemisphere (the Sky Tower in Auckland) and Moscow’s Federation Tower. Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf has confirmed his support for Earth Hour while Quirinale - the official residence of the President of the Italian Republic, Giorgio Napolitano – will also turn its lights off. Other landmarks which plan to merge into the night sky include the normally floodlit Table Mountain over Cape Town, South Africa and the Sydney Opera House.

Director General of WWF International Jim Leape said, “When leaders gather in Copenhagen in December 2009 to negotiate a new deal on climate they must feel that the eyes of the world are upon them. Earth Hour provides an opportunity for the public to send a powerful signal that they are watching and expect action.”

Executive Director of Earth Hour Global, Mr Andy Ridley said 2009 was the planet’s ‘destiny year’, with critical decisions needed to be made at the Copenhagen meeting on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, “2009 is the year we decide the future of the earth. It is the year the world finally agrees on a plan to massively reduce carbon emissions across the globe. This is the time to invest in new ways of doing business in a new low carbon economy. We must all step over the line together. The sum of our actions today can change history and secure the future of our planet.”

The extensive WWF conservation network also has more than 30 teams working in countries such as Malaysia, Brazil, Greece, India, Peru, Spain, Switzerland and France, ready to support a local Earth Hour roll out.

If you would like to pledge your support of Earth Hour log on to www.earthhour.org and sign up. If your company would like to participate in Earth Hour, please call WWF-Malaysia at tel: 78033772 or e-mail: ARaj@wwf.org.my. WWF-Malaysia sincerely thanks our Earth Hour partner, Leo Burnett Malaysia, for their generous support.

For more information on Earth Hour, please click here

About Earth Hour:
Earth Hour is a global WWF climate change initiative. Individuals, businesses, governments and communities are invited to turn out their lights for one hour on Saturday March 28, 2009 at 8:30 PM to show their support for action on climate change. The event began in Sydney in 2007, when 2 million people switched off their lights. In 2008, more than 50 million people around the globe participated. In 2009, Earth Hour aims to reach out to 1 billion people in 1,000 cities


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Myanmar at centre of elephant smuggling trade: report

Yahoo News 11 Dec 08;

BANGKOK (AFP) – Myanmar is at the centre of an illegal trade in elephants and ivory, with more than 250 live animals smuggled out of the country in the past decade, a report said Wednesday.

Most of the elephants were destined for use in the tourist trekking industry in neighbouring Thailand, said the report by the wildlife trade monitoring network TRAFFIC.

Smuggling of live elephants and ivory is in "blatant contravention" of national laws and of the CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora), the group said.

"Our research found evidence of corruption allowing the illicit smuggling of ivory and elephants to take place," Chris Shepherd, senior programme officer with TRAFFIC, was quoted as saying in a statement.

"Females and juvenile elephants are particularly targeted to supply the demand from the tourism industry in Thailand, where they are put to work in elephant trekking centres," said Shepherd.

Smugglers took elephants over the frontier by bribing border officials, the report said, citing one guard as saying he had charged up to 200 dollars per animal because he was saving up to fly to Germany for the 2006 World Cup.

Yet no cross-border trade of live elephants had been reported to CITES by either Myanmar or Thailand, and some traders said elephants had disappeared from parts of Myanmar owing to numbers captured for the live trade, it said.

A survey by the group of 14 markets and three border markets in Thailand and China, which both adjoin Myanmar, also found 9,000 pieces of ivory and 16 whole tusks for sale, it said.

Reports of elephant disappearances and the amount of ivory on sale "suggests that trade poses a significant threat to the survival of Asian elephants in Myanmar," said Vincent Nijman, a co-author of the report.

Myanmar has the largest elephant population in Southeast Asia, with an estimated 4,000 to 5,000 animals, the report said.

TRAFFIC and conservation group WWF called on authorities in Myanmar to work closely with enforcement officers in Thailand and China to address the illegal trade.

"Both Thailand and China must do much more to increase enforcement and crack down on this insidious trade," Susan Lieberman, director of the WWF international species programme, was quoted as saying in the TRAFFIC statement.

It called for greater monitoring of domestic elephant populations in Myanmar, including the use of microchip and tattoo-based identification systems to prevent illegal cross-border movement.

Myanmar hot spot for elephant smuggling and ivory
WWF 10 Dec 08;

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia - Around 250 live Asian Elephants have been smuggled from Myanmar in the past decade, mostly destined for “elephant trekking” tourism activities in neighbouring Thailand, a new report by the wildlife trade monitoring network TRAFFIC reveals today.

Meanwhile blatant illegal ivory trade continues in Myanmar, with TRAFFIC surveys of 14 markets and three border markets in Thailand and China finding 9,000 pieces of ivory and 16 whole tusks for sale.

Retailers generally displayed ivory and other elephant parts quite openly and rarely hesitated in disclosing smuggling techniques and other illegal activities to TRAFFIC staff posing as potential buyers.

The smuggling of live elephants, ivory and other elephant parts out of Myanmar and into neighbouring China and Thailand occurs in blatant contravention of national laws and CITES (the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora).

Chris Shepherd, Senior Programme Officer with TRAFFIC, said the report confirmed a serious lack of law enforcement and a blatant disregard for international conventions and national laws in Myanmar and neighbouring states.

“Females and juvenile elephants are particularly targeted to supply the demand from the tourism industry in Thailand, where they are put to work in elephant trekking centres,” said Shepherd. “Our research found evidence of corruption allowing the illicit smuggling of ivory and elephants to take place.”

No cross-border trade of live elephants has been reported to CITES by either Myanmar or Thailand. Some traders questioned claimed elephants had disappeared from parts of Myanmar, owing to numbers captured for the live trade.

“Anecdotal reports of elephant disappearances, together with the large volume of ivory and elephant parts consistently observed for sale at markets over a period of several years suggests that trade poses a significant threat to the survival of Asian Elephants in Myanmar,” said Vincent Nijman, a co-author of the report.

TRAFFIC and WWF call on authorities in Myanmar to work closely with enforcement officers in neighbouring Thailand and China to address the illegal trade in live elephants and ivory.

“Both Thailand and China must do much more to increase enforcement and crack down on this insidious trade,” said Susan Lieberman, Director of WWF International’s Species Programme.

“Myanmar has the potential to become a major stronghold for Asian Elephants; it’s a pity that illegal capture and killing are pushing elephants towards extinction there,” said Ajay Desai, Co-Chair of the IUCN Asian Elephant Specialist Group, adding: “Neighboring countries need seriously to reconsider their policy on the use of captive elephants and also enforce laws to stop illegal trade in wildlife products.”

Both Thailand and Myanmar are also members of the ASEAN Wildlife Enforcement Network, a regional network established to promote cross-border collaboration to tackle illegal wildlife trade.


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Malaysian government pushes for palm oil biofuel

It will sell palm biodiesel at pumps, lobby IPPs to burn palm oil as fuel
Business Times 11 Dec 08;

(KUALA LUMPUR) Malaysia yesterday said that it would aim to convince independent power producers (IPPs) to boost the use of palm oil as a fuel, but industry observers remained sceptical because of the government's overly high subsidies to support the sector.

The world's second- largest palm producer said that it will sell palm biodiesel at domestic pumps in 2010, as well as lure IPPs to burn palm oil as biodiesel - measures aimed at mopping up excess stocks of the vegetable oil.

The announcement comes as palm oil prices have tumbled nearly two-thirds from a peak of RM4,486 (S$1,869) on a mix of surging stocks and funds fleeing commodity plays while new estates find it difficult to stay afloat.

'By January 2010, palm biodiesel will be available at all the pumps nationwide, of course within reasonable delivery distance,' Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Peter Chin told reporters, adding that the government was in talks with IPPs to burn the tropical oil as a fuel.

He declined to say how much palm oil will be channelled as biodiesel to the IPPs, which include YTL Power, Sime Darby, Tanjong plc and MRCB.

If biofuels are successfully implemented in the transport and industrial sectors, at least half a million tonnes of crude palm oil will be removed from the market in 2009, Mr Chin said.

Palm oil production in Malaysia for next year will stand at 18 million tonnes, the government has forecast, suggesting that less than 3 per cent of it will be removed, barely making a dent.

Malaysia has already put in place mandates for biodiesel use in government vehicles and will give aid to the industry to replant as part of the package of measures to boost demand for crude palm oil and curtail oversupply.

Industry watchers welcomed the measures but said that the government's reliance on a RM400 million fund drawn from taxing palm planters may not be enough to subsidise biodiesel for transport and power generation.

Of the amount, RM200 million was already earmarked for biodiesel and the rest for replanting.

'It's all a matter of cost,' said S Paramalingam, executive director of local brokerage Pelindung Bestari Sdn Bhd.

'The government has been talking about these measures for the longest time but with crude oil prices falling at a faster rate than palm oil, the subsidies may be much higher and there will be a reluctance to follow through.'

Now, palm biofuel would have to compete with cheap domestic petrol diesel, one of the lowest priced in Asia as the government still pays out subsidies from oil and gas export revenues.

In 2006, Malaysia took the lead in developing Asia's biodiesel industry and granted licences to more than 90 firms to set up plants with grandiose visions of introducing palm biodiesel into the domestic fuel market.

But until recently, sky-high prices and a preference to divert palm oil into the more lucrative food industry saw the government dragging its feet\. \-- Reuters


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Environment minister calls for a 'food Kyoto' as a billion people face starvation

Hilary Benn to propose global action to secure food supplies as population booms – along with starvation

Juliette Jowit, guardian.co.uk 10 Dec 08;

Britain and the world face a "perfect storm" of threats to food security unless world leaders agree a global deal to tackle rising prices and environmental damage, the environment secretary Hilary Benn will warn tonight.

Benn will say there are a range of threats to producing enough food to feed an expected global population of 9 billion people by the middle of this century and will call for an international agreement to tackle global warming.

Benn's speech to the Fabian Society in London comes just a day after the UN warned that the number of people facing starvation worldwide rose 40 million to 963 million during 2008, mostly as a result of rising food prices, which in turn have been blamed on soaring demand for crops for food and fuel, and higher oil costs. In the UK annual food prices were more than 10% higher during this summer, and the sector is a driver of overall national inflation of 4.4%, according to the Office for National Statistics.

"Global food production will need to double just to meet demand," Benn is expected to say. "We have the knowledge and the technology to do this, as things stand, but the perfect storm of climate change, environmental degradation and water and oil scarcity, threatens our ability to succeed."

In particular, the UK food system's "dependence on oil will have to change" to use more renewable energy. He also hints that more controversial genetically modified technology could also be needed, described as "new crops and technologies".

"As a world, we need to own up to the true scale of the problem," adds an advance copy of the speech. "And we need a long-term plan for dealing with it. We need... to create a kind of new Kyoto – a new global deal to secure the future of our food." A department spokesman said a global deal would need to cover environmental damage, food security and prices.

The speech is likely to be welcomed as recognition that the UK needs a firmer policy on food security. In 2006 Defra said food security was "not an issue of primary concern" in rich nations.

However the government should not rely on an international treaty instead of making changes to domestic policy, said Tim Lang, professor of food policy at City University in London.

Lang said it was essential to protect natural resources like water and soil, while also cutting meat and dairy production, freeing up land to grow more fruit and vegetables.

"We have got to decide whether we want cheap, unsustainable food or a sustainable food system," said Lang. "This is a new imperialism… we're using other people's land to feed ourselves, taking food out of the mouths of others."

In 2007 the UK produced 61% of the food it consumed, ranging from 100% of cereals to 10% of fruit.


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Insurance: Facing the Threats of Rising Natural Disasters While Driving Solutions to the Climate Change Challenge

UNEP 10 Dec 08;

UNEP Finance Initiative Members Underline Industry Role in Renewables to Current and Future Forest Carbon Projects

Poznan, 10 December 2008 - Weather-related natural disasters are now outstripping ones linked with earthquakes by an ever widening factor, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and insurers said today.

Thomas Loster, chair of Munich Re Foundation and a member of UNEP’s Finance Initiative, said: “Since the 1980s, earthquakes have risen by around 50 per cent but weather-related hazards such major floods have increased by as much as 350 per cent and those from wind storms have doubled”.

The rise, in the line with the kinds of forecasts by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are increasing risks for vulnerable communities and countries while putting strain on the global re-insurance and insurance markets.

A preliminary assessment of the costs and impacts of some key natural disasters, compiled by Munich Re’s NatCat Service, shows that the most costly event of 2008 was the earthquake in China in May.

However the largest numbers of significant disasters were weather-related by nine to ten with Cyclone Nargis, which hit Myanmar in May, claiming an estimated 84,500 lives.

It was thus the most deadly event of 2008 but also costly for the country triggering uninsured economic losses of $4 billion.

China suffered two major weather-related events too the worst of which was in January when extreme winter weather triggered losses of an estimated $20 billion followed by the May-June period when huge floods left a $2 billion loss tag.

Other significant events, the full details of which will come in Munich Re’s full report in 2009, included severe weather ones including typhoons in the United States.

In many ways 2008 proved to be a record-breaking year despite sea surface temperatures in places like the Caribbean being lower than in the previous years when, for example Hurricane Katrina struck the Louisiana coast in 2005.


Hurricane Fay set records by hitting the state of Florida a total of four times dumping almost 30 inches of rain on some parts of the state.

“Meanwhile Cuba suffered three hits this year and in total six hurricanes in a row all made landfall. Taken together these are really unusual, and record-breaking events,” said Mr Loster.


Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary General and UNEP Executive Director, said:” The re-insurance and insurance industry has for many years been on the front line in terms of climate change. UNEP has been working with the industry since 1992”.

“The industry is not only vulnerable to rising weather-related disasters however. It is also has an important role in the profitability and viability of many of the solutions- from creative insurance policies and products that can assist home-owners and businesses in at-risk areas up to new and innovative ones that cover operators of wind farms against unusually calm and economically challenging weather conditions,” he added.


Insuring a Renewable Future

UNEP for example has been working with Paris Re, a European company, to develop a cost-effective and tailored weather derivative in Mexico.


The wind resource, even in very windy areas, can vary as much as 10 to 20 per cent between years.


The policy, based on one developed for farmers in Mexico and in Ethiopia, triggers a payout to a renewable energy generator when wind levels drop below a certain predetermined level.


Eric Usher, Head of UNEP’s Renewable Energy Finance Unit, said: “Previous attempts at such instruments have often proven too be expensive to be utilized, costing operators as much as 16 per cent of their monthly revenues. In contrast the derivative developed for the market in Mexico is likely to be a in the range of 3 per cent making it much more attractive”.


UNEP is now working with a consortium of MunichRe, RSA Insurance Group, CarbonRe, and insurance companies from a number of developing countries to develop a Global Renewable Energy Insurance Facility.

The Facility, which is expected to be launched next month, aims to bring a wider range of innovative insurance and risk management products to assist the growth of renewables and clean energy in developing economies.


“Perhaps the biggest challenge to the industry’s creativity is now emerging - how to underwrite the profitability of carbon markets and carbon funding as it relates to forests,” said Mr Steiner.


Insuring Future Forests

Under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol developed countries can offset some of their domestic emissions by funding projects such a renewable energy and certain types of forestry ones in developing countries.


But of the roughly 4,000 projects registered or in the pipeline of the Clean Development Mechanism, only 27 or 0.7 per cent are for “afforestation and refforestation” says a report issued today by UNEP FI.


The value of forestry credits or “Certified Emission Reductions” have been trading on forward markets at 2-3 Euros per equivalent tonne of C02, it says.


Credits for other kinds of CDM projects such as wind power and fuel-switching trade between 65 per cent and 80 per cent higher.

The report outlines a variety of challenges that need to be overcome, challenges that will become ever more pressing if Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) emerge as part of a new post-2012 global climate deal at next year’s UN climate convention meeting in Copenhagen.


Up to 20 per cent of current greenhouse gas emissions are as a result of deforestation and nations are mid-way through negotiations that could see developing countries paid to keep their forests intact.


However a wide variety of issues remain to be resolved not least how to ensure that a forest involved in such a scheme does not disappear overnight and release its carbon into the atmosphere as a result of say fire, floods or win storms.


Experts believe the insurance industry could play a key role in realizing the success of REDD.


A survey of 18 leading insurance and re-insurance companies in Canada, Europe and Japan underline the challenges and opportunities.

Currently, 40 per cent of those questioned said they were involved in forest insurance at some level and in some countries covering perils ranging from fire to damage from snow, hail, pests, wind storms and earthquakes.


However the vast majority are cover private, commercial or industrial forests rather than the public or natural ones which would be part of a REDD regime.


This is because privately held forests tend to have sophisticated risk management systems in place such as fire-fighting personnel and equipment.


The survey also found that unlimited or catastrophic losses are a key concern for the industry in terms of the forest sector but that firms are now increasing the development of new kinds of products.

Long standing, state-run forest insurance schemes do operate in countries such as Norway which could provide a key to the kind of public-private insurance partnerships that might unlock the potential of any future REDD regime.

Paul Clements-Hunt, Head of UNEP FI, said: “Forests have so far made a totally insignificant contribution to the overall CDM projects despite the enormous potential to contribute to not only combating climate change, but triggering significant financial flows to developing economies”.

“Our new report and survey indicates that hybrid, public-private insurance solutions may well be needed to kick-start the forest carbon market and to support the multi-trillion dollar potential of the reduced emissions from deforestation agenda that may emerge in 2009”.

2008 One Of The Worst Years For Disaster Losses: Insurer
Megan Rowling and Alister Doyle, PlanetArk 11 Dec 08;

POZNAN - Weather-related disasters and earthquakes are likely to make 2008 the second most costly year for insurers after 2005, when Hurricane Katrina struck the United States, a leading insurer said on Wednesday.

Losses in 2008 are around $160 billion so far, Thomas Loster, chair of Munich Re Foundation, told Reuters on the sidelines of December 1-12 climate talks in Poznan, Poland.

He said it was likely to have been surpassed only by 2005, when Katrina contributed to losses of $220 billion.

Cyclone Nargis, which hit Myanmar in May, was the most deadly event of 2008 so far, claiming an estimated 84,500 lives. The most costly was May's earthquake in China.

Munich Re said in a study with the U.N. Environment Programme that weather-related disasters seemed to be on the rise, in line with forecasts by the U.N. Climate Panel that blames mankind for global warming.

"Since the 1980s, earthquakes have risen by around 50 percent but weather-related hazards such as major floods have increased by as much as 350 percent and those from wind storms have doubled," the report said.

The rise in more extreme weather is leading to greater risks for vulnerable countries and communities while straining global insurance markets, the organizations said in a statement.

Hurricane Fay set records by hitting Florida four times and dumping almost 30 inches of rain on some areas in 2008.

U.N. climate talks in Poznan, meant to drive agreement next year on a new climate treaty, have focused on ways to insure developing countries against disasters and help them put in place prevention measures.

A proposal from the Munich Climate Insurance Initiative, a coalition of insurers, non-governmental organizations and climate change experts, outlines a mechanism to manage climate risk that could be part of a new global pact on climate change due to replace or extend the Kyoto Protocol from 2013.

The proposal says premiums for insuring property and infrastructure in developing countries from extreme events would be between $3 billion and $5 billion per year. Adding insurance for medium-scale losses and prevention measures would raise the annual cost to around $10 billion.

"I am surprised countries have not blinked at this yet," said Koko Warner from the United Nations University, who presented the proposal to negotiators. "It made us nervous but we had to say what the cost would be."

(Editing by Andrew Roche)


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Setting climate change targets will not save the world, warns Bjorn Lomborg

Setting new targets on reducing carbon emissions will do nothing to save the world from global warming, a leading environmentalist has warned as ministers meet at a landmark climate change conference.

Louise Gray, The Telegraph 10 Dec 08;

Almost 200 countries have gathered for a UN Climate Change Conference in Poznan, Poland, to decide on a replacement to the Kyoto Protocol.

The most pressing issue is seen as being whether the world can agree targets to reduce carbon emissions.

However, Bjorn Lomborg, professor at Copenhagen Business School and author of the Skeptical Environmentalist, said the meeting is focusing on the wrong area.

He said targets will be difficult to police, expensive to achieve and almost impossible to agree on.

Instead he said the world should be investing heavily in new technologies like carbon capture and storage, that stores carbon underground so that poorer countries like China can continue to burn coal without harming the environment.

"We need to reduce carbon emissions but this will not be done by setting unrealistic targets but by investing in research and development to encourage new technology," he said.

"The main problem is as long as it is expensive to cut CO2 it is going to be uphill all the way and we will get people breaking promises rather than delivering. Instead we should be making cheaper technologies available so it is easy to make cuts.

"For example if solar panels were cheaper than fossil fuels we might get somewhere."

More than 100 ministers are gathering for the crucial final days of the conference when the issues of targets will be debated, alongside deforestation and adaptation to climate change.

In the past the US has been unwilling to commit to such cuts fearing it may cripple industry.

But environmentalists argue that unless powerful countries like the US sign up it will be difficult to persuade developing countries like China to cut emissions.

At the same time the EU is set to decide on a target to cut carbon emissions by 20 per cent by 2020.

It comes as a House of Lords report recommended that the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), that has set up a carbon market where industries pay for the right to pollute, should be strengthened.

Meanwhile Hilary Benn, the environment minister, said in a speech that the world needs a global agreement on food security in the same way as the Kyoto Protocol brought countries together on climate change.

He says the agreement could ensure fair trade, affordable prices and supply of food.

Addressing the Fabian Society, Mr Benn said: "By 2050 there will be nine billion of us living on this small and fragile planet. And the question is: do we have the capacity to feed the equivalent of another two Chinas?

"Global food production will need to double just to meet demand. We have the knowledge and the technology to do this, as things stand, but the perfect storm of climate change, environmental degradation and water and oil scarcity, threatens our ability to succeed.

"The single most important step we can take is to agree a new climate deal in Copenhagen next year. And my message to all those gathering in Poznan this week to lay the foundations of that agreement is that we need it, not just to secure our climate, but also to secure our food and water for the future."


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Carbon Trade In U.N. Climate Spotlight

Gerard Wynn and Gabriela Baczynska, PlanetArk 10 Dec 08;

POZNAN - Tropical forests and coal plants may get money to curb greenhouse gases under a United Nations-led carbon market from 2013 if climate negotiators meeting in Poland can defuse criticism of the present scheme.

Senior officials from about 190 countries have been meeting in the western Polish city of Poznan for talks, which began on December 1 and will end on Friday, to push for agreement on a new climate treaty, including rules for an expanded carbon offset market, by the end of next year.

The U.N.-led carbon offsetting scheme allows developed countries to lay off their greenhouse gas emissions and meet climate targets by funding cuts in developing nations.

Development groups and delegates at the climate talks criticized the scheme for helping Africa too little, producing too few emissions cuts, and, in some cases, claiming to avoid emissions that would not have happened anyway.

Carbon markets also face plunging prices, as sliding economies and industrial output dent greenhouse gas emissions and demand for offsets.

"Projects that have entered the pipeline will result in $25 billion of capital investment, will boost technology transfer developing countries," said the U.N. climate chief Yvo de Boer on Tuesday, supporting the clean development mechanism (CDM).

Carbon offsetting drives additional emissions cuts outside the industrialized countries most to blame for global warming, by funding projects, such as wind power and improved efficiency in developing nations.

"The wider the search the more likely you'll come up with emissions cuts that are relatively cheap and the more likely you get higher (climate) ambition," said Henry Derwent, head of the Geneva-based International Emissions Trading Association (IETA).

CDM BOTTLENECK

U.N. negotiators and country delegates proposed draft measures to unblock the bottleneck of CDM projects, including to set deadlines for approval by a U.N. vetting panel.

If approved, wind power projects in the CDM pipeline would equal about one-fifth of global, installed wind capacity now, said Steve Sawyer, head of the Global Wind Energy Council.

But the scheme has not helped small projects, said John Christensen of the United Nations Environment Program RISO research center. About 10 of 4,000 planned projects were in the building sector, which accounts for one-third of greenhouse gases.

U.N. officials accept that some projects have not avoided emissions, for example, a hydropower plant that claims offsets even though it was profitable and would have been built anyway.

Carbon traders want broader rules which will allow more projects, by judging these more simply against the carbon emissions of rival energy sources in a particular region, including high-carbon coal.

"Can we just look at this as 'yes, we as a society realize that wind is good for fighting global warming'," said Marc Stuart, co-founder of UK-based project developer EcoSecurities.

Similar ideas for scaling up the scheme being discussed in Poznan include allowing steel or cement companies to earn offsets if they beat best practice energy efficiency.

Also up for debate is allowing rich countries to lay off their own emissions by funding projects to trap carbon emissions from coal plants, called carbon capture and storage (CCS).

"There are very strong feelings on both sides," U.N. climate chief de Boer said on Tuesday.

There were also big differences on the idea of using offset projects to conserve tropical forests, the destruction of which accounts for about one-fifth of global greenhouse gases.

A key issue is whether the U.N. meeting will specify the rights of indigenous people who live in threatened forests, when defining "reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation." (REDD)

Several indigenous peoples groups shouted "No rights, no REDD," on the sidelines of the Poznan conference.

Some delegates and negotiators said the financial crisis could make it harder to agree on new emissions-cutting goals before current targets expire under the Kyoto Protocol in 2012. That would further weaken demand for offsets.

(Editing by Karen Foster)


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Poorest need $1 bln for urgent climate projects

Megan Rowling, PlanetArk 11 Dec 08;

POZNAN - Rich nations will be asked to contribute $1 billion to a fund to help the poorest countries implement urgent projects to adapt to climate change, a top official said on Wednesday.

Boni Biagini, who runs the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) which was set up under U.N. auspices in 2001, said funds would be raised based on an evaluation of plans from 38 of the world's poorest countries.

"They are pretty satisfied about this amount. They say $2 billion would be better, but let's start with $1 billion at least and of course scale up," she told Reuters on the sidelines of U.N. climate change talks in Poznan, Poland.

Ten more countries are still preparing programs of action to adapt to the impacts of global warming.

The LDCF was established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and is managed by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), a major international funder of environmental projects.

So far, rich countries have pledged only $172 million to the fund, with Germany, Denmark, Britain and the Netherlands contributing the most.

The United States has yet to give any money, but Biagini said she hoped that would change under the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama.

"It is the largest economy in the world and this is a fund for the poor ... so I am making my plea to the United States of America to give a contribution to the poor," she said.

Biagini said the United States had declined to contribute in the past, arguing incorrectly that the fund was part of the Kyoto Protocol, which it has not ratified.

Saleemul Huq, an adaptation expert at the International Institute for Environment and Development, said Washington could donate because the fund was part of the UNFCCC, of which the United States is a member country.

"Obama has a golden opportunity to move away from the absolutely shameless past of the Bush (administration) by making a major contribution of maybe $100 million or more," he said.

Many poor nations have complained about what they regard as delays in accessing cash from the fund. So far just one project has started in Bhutan, which aims to reduce the risks from glacial lakes that may overflow as rising temperatures melt ice.

Quamrul Islam Chowdhury, a negotiator from Bangladesh, told Reuters the Poznan talks had agreed the GEF should work with U.N. agencies developing the adaptation projects to speed up the process. Poor countries would also get assistance to build their capacity to adapt to climate change.

"This is one step in the right direction," he said.

Biagini said 24 projects were close to implementation, including measures to protect coastal areas from rising seas and to help farmers adjust to unpredictable weather.

(Editing by Mark Trevelyan)

Poor countries 'need carbon cuts'
Richard Black, BBC News 9 Dec 08;

People in developing countries will need to make big cuts in greenhouse gas emissions if "dangerous" climate change is to be avoided, a report warns.

Researchers at the Third World Network calculate that even if rich nations make deep cuts, the developing world will face per-capita reductions of 60%.

It suggests this would pose challenges to these countries' development.

Meanwhile, another report warns that current proposals for cutting developed world emissions do not go far enough.

The Global Climate Network, an alliance of research groups, says that current pledges by the EU and by US President-elect Barack Obama will not put the world on track to halving emissions by 2050.

Both reports have been under discussion here at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) conference in Poznan, Poland.

Growth curve

"The figures are very grim," said Martin Khor, director of the Malaysia-based Third World Network.

"They're grim if we go for a 50% [global] cut by 2050, and we may need more - I think we only went for a 50% figure so as not to scare politicians."

Halving global emissions by 2050 (relative to a 1990 baseline) would mean that they are unlikely to rise more than 2.5C above the pre-industrial average, according to calculations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Further IPCC analyses suggest this would avoid some of the most serious potential climate impacts.

The leaders of the G8 major industrialised nations endorsed the global target at their summit this year in Japan.

A number of countries, including the UK, want to keep their own emissions in 2050 80% below the 1990 baseline.

If the entire industrialised world took on this commitment, the Third World Network calculates, developing nations would have to cut their emissions by 23% in order for the world to hit its 50% target.

But because the populations of developing countries are growing, this 23% figure translates to a per-capita cut of 60%.

If the developing world made a more modest commitment, to keep its per-capita emissions constant at 1990 levels, population growth would still mean that the total emissions from these countries would double by 2050, scuppering any chance of a global 50% cut.

Although some developing countries have established plans for improving energy efficiency and curbing the rate at which their emissions are rising, there is no appetite within the bloc for an actual cut, and industrialised nations are not pressing them to take on firm targets.

Without such a commitment, this report suggests, there is little chance of avoiding temperature rises that are likely to bring major impacts, if the IPCC is right.

Cooking up

Ewah Eleri, executive director of the International Centre for Energy, Environment and Development based in the Nigerian capital, Abuja, said there were some obvious easy ways for the poorest developing countries to reduce emissions.

One would be to replace traditional open wood-burning stoves with more efficient models.

"Being able to introduce efficient wood stoves is not rocket science," he told BBC News.

"But it holds a lot of promise in terms of reducing the health hazard to men, women and children who work in the kitchen."

Making the switch across Nigeria could probably reduce the country's emissions by 20-30%.

Globally, he said, about two billion people use wood as their primary fuel; and switching them all to locally-made efficient stoves would cost about $6bn.

Mr Eleri said that although developing countries could do more, the lead has to be taken by the West.

The EU has staked a claim to that lead by vowing to cut its emissions by 20% by 2020, or by 30% if there is a global deal.

Mr Obama has proposed a more modest goal - bringing US emissions down by 2020 to the level they were at in 1990.

The analysis by the Global Climate Network suggests these pledges are not enough to halve global emissions by 2050, even if they are implemented.

There is, it says, a "mitigation gap".

"We have got to unlock emissions growth in developing countries," said the organisation's co-ordinator Andrew Pendleton, who is based at the Institute for Public and Policy Research (IPPR) in London.

"But we have got to find an equitable way of doing that."

The clear message from putting these two reports together was, he said, that richer nations will have to get finance and clean technology into the developing world if they want to turn the goal of a 50% cut into reality.

Asian Development Bank sets up carbon fund
Yahoo News 10 Dec 08;

POZNAN, Poland (AFP) – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday said it would launch a new fund next month, helped by pledges of 100 million dollars, to promote low-carbon projects in Asia.

The scheme seeks to ease the deepening worry surrounding the future of the carbon market beyond the end of 2012, when current provisions under the Kyoto Protocol run out, the ADB said at the UN climate talks in Poznan.

Over 100 million dollars have been promised to the new Future Carbon Fund, which will begin operations on January 30, ADB Vice President Ursula Schaefer-Preuss said at a press conference.

The money has been pledged mainly by European countries, led by Finland, Sweden and the Belgian province of Flanders, and the goal is to eventually top this up to 200 million dollars with the help of the private sector, she said.

One of the drivers for the Future Carbon Fund is concern about what will happen beyond 2012, she said.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, rich countries that have ratified the pact are required to curb their emissions of greenhouse gases by the end of 2012 compared to a benchmark year of 1990.

They can use several market-based tools to achieve this target, including the so-called Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), under which they gain carbon credits that can be bought and sold with other signatories.

The credits are gained by investing in projects in poor countries that are calculated to mitigate carbon emissions there.

But negotiations on a treaty that goes beyond Kyoto's 2012 commitments are moving slowly.

Corporations are keen on reaping carbon credits, but unsure about committing to investment if there could be a delay in getting the return, said Schaefer-Preuss.

"We believe the short remaining time under the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period, and [an] uncertain regulatory framework beyond 2012, is beginning to hamper the trade in carbon credits, which in turn is reflected in the initiation of new low-carbon projects in developing countries," said Schaefer-Preuss.

The main innovation of the Future Carbon Fund will be to make finance available upfront to project developers instead of the standard "payment on delivery" method, she said.

Likely projects will be in renewable energy, energy efficiency, sustainable transport and urban sanitation.

The announcement was made on the sidelines of the December 1-12 talks under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), tasked with advancing towards agreement, in December 2009, for the post-2012 treaty.


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All eyes on EU as UN climate talks stumble on

Simon Sturdee Yahoo News 10 Dec 08;

POZNAN, Poland (AFP) – UN talks on crafting a new climate change treaty inched forward on Wednesday, with delegates hoping the EU would spur the process by approving its own pact at a crunch summit.

The conference in the Polish city of Poznan, gathering more than 11,600 participants from around the world, reaches a climax on Thursday with the start of two days of ministerial-level talks.

Some 150 environment ministers and top government officials were expected, as well as UN head Ban Ki-moon and US senators John Kerry and Amy Klobuchar -- two figures seen as the eyes and ears of president-elect Barack Obama.

Negotiations among the 192-members UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are mid-way through a two-year "roadmap" set down on the Indonesian island of Bali last year.

They are aiming for a deal in Copenhagen in December 2009 for a far-reaching pact that would roll back the peril of global warming.

It would take effect from 2012, when provisions expire under the UNFCCC's Kyoto Protocol.

This is proving a tall order, with the complex discussions in Poznan centered on how to share out the commitments and costs of cutting the carbon pollution that stokes global warming.

Rich countries acknowledge their historic role in pushing up global temperatures but they say emerging powers like China and India must also take action.

Developing and poorer nations hit back with the argument that the industrialised world should lead by example, and foot the bill for clean-energy technology and coping with the impact of global warming.

"It is going slow. But at this stage, there is some progress." South Africa's minister of environment and tourism, Marthinus van Schalkwyk, told AFP.

Negotiators agreed that by next June they would whittle down a 100-page document, stuffed with hundreds of sometimes conflicting proposals, into a workable blueprint for action beyond 2012, said a UN source.

"It's quite significant," the source said.

Pressure group Greenpeace complained that the talks were becoming bogged down and, in a large banner hung above the entrance to Poznan train station, urged ministers to "get serious."

The World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) said activists wearing eyeball costumes would greet ministers as they arrived, demonstrating the world is "eagerly observing the negotiations and expects constructive conclusions."

France's climate ambassador Brice Lalonde said hopes of a breakthrough at Poznan had always been misplaced.

"Poznan was never going to be a conference where a spectacular outcome was to be expected," Lalonde told reporters. "We hope for a spectacular outcome in Copenhagen next year."

But delegates also wondered how the Bali "roadmap" will look after an EU summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday that will aim to hammer out an accord over Europe's climate plan.

The EU, credited with salvaging the Kyoto Protocol after the United States refused to ratify it in 2001, has championed demands for a tough post-2012 pact.

Its programme sets down the most ambitious goals of any advanced economy, including 20 percent less greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 compared with 1990 levels, increased use of renewable energy sources and overall energy savings.

But a major sticking point is the plan to require industry to start buying its polluting rights via auction, raising objections from economic powerhouse Germany and coal-heavy eastern Europe countries like Poland.

"You can see the US and China moving (on climate change). We will destroy or undermine that movement if we go flaky in Europe now," leading economist Nicholas Stern, author of a landmark 2006 report on climate change, said in Poznan on Tuesday.

German Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel told reporters on Wednesday that the EU risked losing its vanguard role and giving the impression it was "no longer serious" on climate change if no deal was struck in Brussels.

EU failure could torpedo UN climate talks, warns climate guru
Marlowe Hood Yahoo News 10 Dec 08;

POZNAN, Poland (AFP) – Failure by Europe's leaders to back a climate action plan at their summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday could badly damage negotiations for a global deal, top economist Nicholas Stern said at the UN talks here.

Stern also warned that the peril from global warming and the price tag for fighting it were higher than he had estimated in his benchmark 2006 report, known as the Stern Review.

"It would be absolute madness now for Europe to be divided, to lose the cohesion that it has got," Stern said on the sidelines of the December 1-12 talks under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

"That's why it is important at the end of this week that Europe gets behind its action plan to deliver at least 20 percent cuts (in its emissions) by 2020," he said at a dinner for business and environmental leaders.

France and other richer EU members are pushing for the adoption of an ambitious energy package at a summit meeting of the European Union's 27 member states in Brussels.

But the bloc's newest members, led by Poland, have threatened to back out unless concessions are made to ease their transition to less carbon intensive economies.

A botched deal, Stern said, would torpedo a fragile consensus that is building within and beyond the UN process.

"You can see that the US and China are moving," he said, pointing to Obama's aim to reduce US emissions by 80 percent by 2050, and a new recognition in Beijing on the need to build a low-carbon economy.

"We will destroy or undermine that movement if we go flaky in Europe now -- it would just be intolerable."

Stern also cautioned that the cost of bringing down atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations enough to prevent catastrophic climate change was almost certainly higher than he originally estimated.

"The situation in terms of risk looks worse than we thought a couple of years ago -- emissions are increasing faster, the capacity of the Earth to absorb is less," he said.

The Stern Review had suggested a safe target would be to limit CO2 levels to between 450 and 550 parts per million (ppm).

The cost of reaching this would be about one percent of GDP for keeping CO2 levels below 550 ppm, based on a doubling of the world's economy over the next 40 years.

On Tuesday, though, Stern said it was safer to lower this upper ceiling from 550 ppm to 500 ppm.

Achieving this would cost about 50 trillion dollars or about two percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

"An insurance policy of two percent that buys us enormous reductions in risks -- plus a safer, quieter, more energy secure world -- is still a very good deal," he said.

Some 150 environment ministers meet in Poznan on Thursday and Friday to push the UN talks forward, even as European heads of state gather in Brussels.

"I think we are going a bit slowly here in Poznan. What we should be thinking about is a shared understanding of at least 50 percent global (emissions) cuts by 2050, and at least 80 percent cuts by rich countries," Stern said.

The European climate-energy plan, covering the period 2013-2020, would replace its current system of trading carbon pollution quotas, and could become a model for a global scheme.

Ex-Soviet bloc countries in EU have said they need a substantially longer transition period before switching entirely to the auction system.

Call for no delay on climate deal
Richard Black, BBC News 10 Dec 08;

As ministers begin two days of talks on climate change, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the world's financial woes must not block climate progress.

Ministers from 189 nations aim to finalise agreements drawn up here at the annual UN climate conference.

As they talk, EU heads of state will be meeting in Brussels to agree energy and climate reforms including promises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

EU leadership is widely seen as crucial in reaching a new global climate deal.

The Poznan talks mark the half-way point in a two-year process initiated at the UN talks in Bali last year. Over the last year, governments have submitted ideas on what they would like to see in a new global pact, which is supposed to be finalised by next year's meeting in Copenhagen.

'Unprecedented crises'

However, environmental groups are concerned that as governments in the EU and elsewhere reach for ways to tackle the global financial crisis, they will put climate change to one side.

Mr Ban said that must not happen.

"We are going through unprecedented multiple crises starting from global financial crisis, food crisis and also climate change crisis," he told BBC News.

"If we take action today it may not be too late. But if we take action tomorrow, we may have to regret it for not only us, but for coming generations and even for planet Earth."

The Poznan talks must set the stage for an agreement next December that includes "ratifiable, balanced and ambitious" targets for reducing the emissions of developed nations, he added.

UK energy and climate secretary Ed Miliband agreed.

"While these are challenging economic times, the world must not turn its back on climate change; indeed we must step up the pace," he said.

"So all of us at Poznan have a duty to come here and show the path to a deep and comprehensive deal."

Protection fund

Many of the documents under discussion for the last two weeks have been agreed with little demur.

However, there have been serious wrangles over some issues which could not be resolved before the ministerial segment.

One concerns the UN Adaptation Fund, a pot of money that is designed to help developing countries protect their societies and economies against potential impacts of climate change.

Current proposals see the World Bank as a major player in managing the money.

Developing countries are unhappy with this, and want a separate body set up that would, as they see it, be more responsive to their needs.

"There needs to be more equity in the process," said Harjeet Singh, a campaigner with Action Aid in India.

"The most vulnerable countries should be able to get more from the fund, and it must be responsive to the national adaptation plans that governments have drawn up."

The sting in the tail for developing countries is that the wrangle could delay the first payments from the fund.

No Obama role

Many observers here feel there are two issues that have reduced the impetus for progress here.

One is the fact that the EU has yet to agree its climate and energy package, under which the bloc is set to pledge emissions cuts of 20% from 1990 levels by 2020, or by 30% if there is a global deal.

"The EU is to be blamed here," said Mr Singh. "If the EU had concluded its agreement by now, others would have followed suit."

The other issue is that the US delegation here represents the outgoing administration of George Bush, with the incoming one of Barack Obama playing no visible role, despite the proposals he has floated on reducing US emissions.

The EU package could yet unravel - though few believe it will - or it could be weakened by concessions to countries such as Poland which believe it will incur unpalatable costs.

In addition, the bloc has not yet published proposals on giving financial assistance for developing countries that could help them restrain the growth in their carbon emissions.

This will be a key ingredient of any agreement in Copenhagen, and developing nations will need to study it - as they will Mr Obama's eventual policies - before deciding how far they are prepared to go in a package.

It may mean, some observers say, that the timescale is too tight to reach a Copenhagen deal that includes the "ratifiable, balanced and ambitious" targets that Mr Ban considers necessary.


EU lead on climate change under threat
The European Union's global leadership on climate change is under threat as Germany heads a rebellion to protect industry from the extra cost of tough environmental targets.
Bruno Waterfield, The Telegraph 10 Dec 08;

Europe's leaders are gathering in Brussels for a battle over how to enforce an EU target to reduce CO2 emissions 20 per cent by 2020 – a decision that was taken before the economic slump.

Diplomats and officials fear that environmental pledges made in rosier economic times will be an early casualty of the global downturn damaging the EU's role on the world stage as broker of global climate change talks to be held in Copenhagen next year.

Nicolas Sarkozy, who currently holds the EU's rotating presidency, has written to heads of state and government warning that "key questions still remain open" over "decisions with highly significant implications".

"I am determined to ensure that the European Council lives up to its responsibility and to citizens' expectations," he wrote.

"I am sure that each one of us will be able to show the vision and spirit of compromise necessary for success."

President Sarkozy has also told EU leaders that unless they agree on climate change by Friday night he will summon them to an emergency Brussels summit during the holiday period between Christmas and the New Year.

Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, is deeply concerned that plans to charge European industry for permits to produce CO2 will drive manufacturing companies outside Europe where costs are lower.

Chancellor Merkel has told Mr Sarkozy that Berlin will block success at the EU summit unless Germany, Europe's largest economy, is given concessions to protect key manufacturing industries, such as steel, aluminium, cement or automobiles.

"It must not take decisions that would endanger jobs or investments in Germany," she told Germany's top-selling Bild newspaper earlier this week. "I will make sure of that."

One German study has shown that the EU CO2 targets could see 300,000 jobs lost by 2020 as key industrial sectors shift production to more competitive countries outside Europe, a process known as "carbon leakage".


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Sun's Cycles Can Forecast Floods, Drought?

Carolyn Barry, National Geographic News 10 Dec 08;

The sun's fluctuations can help predict extreme climatic events on Earth decades ahead of time, new research suggests.

Solar cycles are 11-year phases during which the sun's activity ebbs and flows, accompanied by an increase in sunspots on the sun's surface. (Watch a video of how solar storms cause "sun quakes.")

The cycles, which are driven by the sun's magnetic turbulence, may influence weather systems on Earth, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a periodic climatic system associated with floods and droughts mostly in the Southern Hemisphere.

"The sun is the engine of our climate," said lead study author Robert Baker, of the University of New England in Australia.

"It's like a vibrating string—its past vibrations can be used to predict future vibrations."

Those vibrations are the cyclical "twisting and untwisting" of magnetic fields that cause the sun's poles to flip at the start of each new cycle.

Climate and Sun Similarities

Longer magnetic cycles of about 90 years and 400 years are also found in astronomy records.

The Southern Oscillation Index, which measures the El Niño-Southern Oscillation system, seems to correspond with a 90-year sun cycle, Baker found.

For instance, the current index reading closely follows a trend observed in the 1920s.

Periods of greater solar disturbances are associated with rainy periods, whereas a calmer sun dovetailed with times of drought in Australia, Baker said.

The research appears in a recent edition of the journal Geographical Research.

Floods of the Future?

Data from the 1940s, coupled with astrophysicists' calculations of future solar cycles, could predict droughts and floods as far off as 2030, Baker said.

"We can look into the future based on the past to make predictions 10 to 20 years ahead."

El Niño and La Niña, which creates opposite climatic effects from El Niño, also affect North America.

That means long-range forecasting is possible for water availability in Mexico and the western United States, where droughts are often severe, Baker said.

How solar cycles may influence Earth's weather systems is not well understood, but Baker speculated that cosmic radiation is a factor.

For instance, Baker's research shows that periods of high cosmic radiation coincide with particularly long La Niñas, Baker said.

"This [area of research] is something that warrants further investigation," he said.

If the current index continues to mimic the 1920s cycle, then 2009 is set to be another cool year relative to the 1990s.

However, the next few years may be a little harder to predict, he added.

That's because the sun has already defied its typical 11-year cycle: The new round was supposed to begin in 2007, but only recently got underway.

Longer-term trends may also be influencing the timing of the new cycle, Baker said. The larger 400-year magnetic cycle, for instance, is expected to end in 2020.

Doubtful

However, other scientists have misgivings about the strength of the research and its value in predicting climate events.

Stuart Larsen, a climate ecologist at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, believes that solar cycles may "play a role in driving climatic variation."

But he's doubtful of Baker's work, calling it "statistically flawed."

"No causal link between El Niño events and solar variability has been demonstrated, and I think it is very unlikely that any direct link exists," said Larsen, who was not involved in the research.

Julie Arblaster is a climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne.

"While there may be some influence of the solar and magnetic cycles on the [Southern Oscillation Index] and Australian rainfall," Arblaster said, "the magnitude of the signal is quite small."


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