China's sea waters rise to highest levels since ten years

People's Daily Online 19 Jan 09

The sea of China’s coastal waters in 2008 rose to their highest levels ever in almost 10 years and were, on average, 14 millimeters higher than in 2007 according to the Beijing News. Recently, an official from the National Marine Data and Information Service (NMDIS) pointed out that in the coming 30 years, China’s sea levels are expected to rise 80 to 130 millimeters higher than last year. However, no islands will be submersed by seawater for at least another century.

According to the 2008 Bulletin on China’s Maritime Environmental Quality released by the State Oceanic Administration, in the last 30 years the sea levels of China’s coastal waters have shown an overall upward fluctuating trend with an average increase of 2.6 millimeters per year, higher than the global average. The bulletin shows that the sea levels of coastal waters in southern China were noticeably higher than those in northern China. Chen Manchun, Director of the Environment Department of NMDIS said that although last year saw peak values in sea level rise, since rising sea levels have a greater impact on some detached island countries, as far as China is concerned, the present rising trend is not serious.


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Best of our wild blogs: 19 Jan 09


Failed Seagrass Expedition!
on the labrador park blog

Mangrove mysteries at Pulau Semakau
more A. marina! on the wild shores of singapore blog

Siloso: Suckers and Stars
on the Lazy Lizard's Tales blog and Return to Siloso

The Beauty of Wildness @ Punggol
on the Beauty of Fauna and Flora in Nature blog

Synthetic chemicals on tap
on the Water Quality in Singapore blog

Seen on STOMP
4 Jan on the Lazy Lizard's Tales by Ivan and 5 Jan and 8 Jan and 12 Jan and 13 Jan and 15 Jan

Wildflowers on meadows and seashores of Semakau Landfill
on the wild shores of singapore blog

Libellago aurantiaca (Red Jewel)
a pretty dragonfly on the Creatures Big & Small blog

Pseudoscorpion Parahya submersa
on the Raffles Museum News blog

Entomogenous fungi
death by fungus on the talfryn.net blog

Asian Koel regurgitates seed
on the Bird Ecology Study Group blog

Eccentric Southwold collection for sale
on the Raffles Museum News blog

Monday Morgue: 19th January 2009
on the Lazy Lizard's Tales blog

Fluffy
on the annotated budak blog and how about a shake?

Tree Climbing Fish!
on Manoj Sugathan's Wlog

Volvo Ocean Race: Race for the Environment - Scouts Day!
on the Raffles Museum News blog

5th International Hornbill Conference
on the nature-singapore mailing list


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'Green New Deal' for Singapore?

Japan and South Korea adopt green plans to save economy but Singapore unlikely to follow suit
Jessica Cheam, Straits Times 19 Jan 09;

RESCUE packages for ailing Asian economies are increasingly taking on a green hue, with Japan and South Korea being the latest to announce 'Green New Deal' policies to boost growth.

While market watchers feel Singapore could introduce similar measures, analysts say Singapore's Budget this week will more likely focus on domestic issues such as help for struggling businesses and households.

The green stimulus concept has been promoted recently by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) as an antidote to current economic woes.

It has urged governments to formulate fiscal policies and make investments designed to spur green growth and thereby create new jobs.

Such programmes also set the framework for a leaner, low-carbon, better-managed global economy, the UNEP has argued.

South Korea recently announced it will invest over US$38 billion (S$56 billion) in environmental projects to help stimulate its flagging economy and create 960,000 new jobs over the next four years - with 140,000 to be realised by the end of this year.

The Japanese government, similarly, has vowed to create one million new jobs through green infrastructure initiatives.

Its green sector currently employs 1.4 million people and generates sales of US$745 billion. This is expected to grow as its Environment Ministry said it will accelerate the development of the sector, bringing forward a 2020 target to create a green business sector worth US$1 trillion and employing 2.2 million people.

With the North Asian giants taking the green economic policy route, should Singapore follow suit? Does the green sector have what it takes to pull Singapore's economy out of recession?

Economists whom The Straits Times spoke to say Singapore's focus in the short term is likely to remain on helping flagging businesses and struggling households.

'I don't think the green sector is developing on a big scale at this point,' said UOB economist Ho Woei Chen.

OCBC economist Selena Ling felt that green fiscal policies, if any, will be a 'very long-term thing' and not an immediate priority for the upcoming Budget.

'The attention really will be helping businesses and households cope with the current economic situation,' she said.

Singapore Environment Council (SEC) executive director Howard Shaw said that although Singapore's green industry efforts may not be branded under the 'Green New Deal' banner, it has, in recent years, introduced such policies to help green the economy's infrastructure.

Incentives for green buildings, for example, have been launched to help building owners convert their assets to become more energy-efficient.

A check with the Economic Development Board (EDB) revealed that the Government has dedicated more than $600 million to the green sector so far.

This includes $350 million set aside in 2007 for clean energy research and a $330 million fund approved in 2006 for environmental and water technologies.

More plans are in the works but details cannot be released yet, said EDB.

It pointed out that the clean technologies industry had been identified as a strategic economic growth area since 2006, 'way before the financial crisis'.

'Today, we still believe in bright, long-term prospects for the global clean-tech industry...the sum will go towards developing manpower, R&D and grooming Singapore-based clean-tech enterprises - all of which are key pillars in the clean-tech industry,' said EDB.

This green sector has created more than 3,000 jobs so far, and the goal remains for the clean energy industry to contribute $1.7 billion to economic output and create 7,000 jobs by 2015, EDB said.

Mr Shaw argued that more could be done to boost the green sector.

Policies today are entrenched in research and development investment at the moment, he said.

The funds committed to greening the economy remain 'relatively small', perhaps a 'reflection of Singapore's cautious approach before committing to pump X dollars to get X number of jobs', he said.

Credit Suisse economist Joseph Tan also feels more can be done.

The solar industry, for example, could benefit from direct fiscal stimulus, and grow to be a booming sector that generates growth and creates jobs. But this will take time, he concedes.

Meanwhile, the Energy Market Authority (EMA) maintains that clean energy options 'do not have the scale to replace more than a small proportion of our energy needs'.

However, 'the energy landscape is rapidly evolving and we should not write off any energy option for Singapore', it said.

EMA has also recently embarked on a project to test-bed clean and renewable technologies on Pulau Ubin.

SEC's Mr Shaw is hopeful. 'In future years, I hope we will continue upping the stakes in this industry.'

Green industry creates jobs in Singapore

# Norwegian solar firm, Renewable Energy Corporation: $6.3 billion plant, 150 hired, another 900 this year, and by next year, aims to employ 3,000.

# Finland biofuel firm, Neste Oil: $1.18 billion plant, 100 jobs by next year.

# Copenhagen-listed wind firm, Vestas Wind Systems: $500 million plant, 300 jobs by 2012.

# Swiss solar equipment-maker Oerlikon Solar: $39 million R&D centre, 100 jobs.

# Solar wafer-maker NorSun: $419 million plant, 300 jobs.


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Cooking oil for cash

CDC’s plans to save energy will also help residents save money in the downturn
Ong Dai Lin, Today Online 19 Jan 09;

To help low income households in South West Community Development Council (CDC) reduce 10 per cent of their energy consumption, 500 student Energy Auditors from ITE College West will visit them to teach energy saving methods.

The South West 10% ECo Challenge programme is expected to benefit up to 1,000 households this year, starting next month.

Dr Amy Khor, mayor of the south-west district, also announced yesterday at the launch of the 10-year Environment & Community (ECo) Plan South West that a programme to recycle used cooking oil will begin next month in collaboration with Alpha Biofuels and National Environment Agency’s South West Regional Office.

Residents can receive 20 cents for every litre of used cooking oil that they bring to collection points set up monthly at one of the town centres.

Hong Kah North Community Centre and Gek Poh Ville Community Centre received the ECo Community Centre certification, a spin-off from the Project Eco Office certification programme initiated by South West CDC and the Singapore Environment Council.

To further promote a spirit of community amid the economic downturn, a Kampung Spirit @ South West Award will be given out next month to recognise residents who have displayed social graciousness.

“Practising good environmental habits not only save the environment but can also help us cut costs to cope with the economic downturn,” said Dr Khor.

For South West CDC, recycling programmes like “Trash for Cash” and “Trash for Groceries” benefit residents by letting them exchange unwanted goods for money or groceries.

Dr Khor also said that over the last three months, South West CDC has seen a28 per cent increase in the number of residents who have come forward to seek social assistance.

There has also been a 42-per-cent increase in those looking for employment assistance.

South West CDC looks after 734,000 residents and it handles an average of 24,000 cases needing financial and employment aid each year.

Late last month, the CDC launched a South West CDC’s Interim Coping Package for Economic Downturn to help residents affected by the downturn.

So far, the CDC has approved 25 applications under the new scheme.

South West CDC promotes cost-saving eco-projects among households
Ng Suan Jee, Channel NewsAsia 19 Jan 09;

SINGAPORE: Saving the environment can also lead to saving costs.

This is what the South West Community Development Council (CDC) hopes to achieve through its eco-projects.

It is encouraging recycling by handing out rice and instant noodles to residents in exchange for recyclable materials.

Some 500 ITE students will also teach 1,000 lower-income households how to be more energy efficient.

Residents can look forward to receiving rewards, including energy efficient desk lamp and electric kettle, if they achieve a target of 10 percent or more energy savings in their electricity bills. - CNA/de


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Jurong Rock Cavern tender likely to be awarded in Feb

Ronnie Lim, Business Times 19 Jan 09;

CONSTRUCTION of the $700 million first phase of an underground oil storage facility on Jurong Island finally looks set to kick off after next month.

This is when JTC Corporation expects to decide on the main building contractor as well as the operator for Jurong Rock Cavern (JRC), in a move that will help pump-prime the weak economy.

'We are in the final stages of evaluation (of the tenders) and expect to make a decision in February,' a JTC spokeswoman told BT recently. But she declined to name the short-listed bidders or say how many are in the running for the main construction award.

One of the groups earlier reported to be vying to operate the project is a consortium comprising Royal Vopak of Holland, which already operates above-ground oil tanks flanking the planned project, and Geostock-Jurong Consultants, which did basic engineering for JRC.

Another is said to be Emirates National Oil Company, which owns and runs Horizon Terminals on Jurong Island.

The latest JTC indication comes after months of delays in awarding tenders, which were first called in late 2007. Sources said previously that JTC needed more time to evaluate the tenders, especially for the main building contract, given the demanding design and engineering requirements.

Building JRC - by drilling and blasting sedimentary rock - will help stir activity on Jurong Island, given the delays in many projects there due to a global slump in demand as economies go into recession.

Jurong Aromatics Corporation, which plans a US$2 billion petrochemical complex, was one of the first committed customers for JRC. But JAC's project has been delayed as its partners are still trying to sew up financing.

JTC indicated in a pre-qualifying tender document in April 2007 that it expected the first two caverns of phase 1 JRC to be operating by December 2010.

In all, the first phase comprises five caverns to hold 1.485 million cubic metres of crude oil, naphtha, condensate and gas oil. Four will store 330,000 cu m each and the fifth will hold 165,000 cu m. The work will involve about 7km of galleries and tunnels, with an excavated volume of about 2.5 million cu m beneath the Banyan Basin.

A planned phase 2 could add a further 1.3 million cu m of storage, doubling JRC's total capacity.


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Why this CNY could be a Cheaper New Year

Worried about slow business due to the downturn, shops are lowering prices on festive goodies from wax ducks to shark's fin

Shree Ann Mathavan, The New Paper 19 Jan 09;

IF you hanker for Chinese New Year delicacies such as abalone, fish maw, scallop or bamboo fungus, here's some good news.

A check by The New Paper on Sunday at four major retailers in Chinatown showed that such luxury festive goodies are considerably cheaper this year.

That's because businesses are anticipating a slowdown in demand due to the recession, making stores introduce bigger discounts so that more customers will bite.

At Thye Shan Medical Hall along New Bridge Road, for instance, delicacies like fish maw, bamboo fungus and dried scallop have had their prices slashed.

Last year, premium fish maw retailed for $41 per 100g. But now, the same quantity costs $39.

Similarly, scallop of all sizes - small, medium and large - have had a 10 per cent deduction across the board. They now cost between $15 and $19 per 100g.

Bamboo fungus, which can be used to prepare shark's fin or the dish Buddha Jumps Over The Wall, is also 20 per cent cheaper, costing $4.80 per 50g.

Ad-hoc discounts

And while abalone prices, which can range from $42 to $45 for a 140g can, have remained constant, operations manager Mr Mervyn Chan, said the store is more willing to give ad-hoc discounts if customers buy in bulk.

Mr Chan, who is in his mid-40s, explained: 'Our policy this year is to keep our prices as low as possible and our profit margins low, because people may be worry about the economy.'

'Also, we think people will be cutting their budget for Chinese New Year. So we decided to sell expensive items like fish maw slightly cheaper.'

Apart from cutting prices, the company also drastically reduced the amount of New Year goodies it ordered this year.

Mr Chan told The New Paper on Sunday that he placed about 50 per cent fewer orders this year with his supplier, as he isn't confident about demand.

Although it's just one more week to Chinese New Year, goods are not moving quickly.

Said Mr Chan: 'Business has dropped by about 30 per cent.'

To cope, the company has weekly promotions to try and entice customers to part with their money, he said.

Over at Tam Kah Shark's Fin at Smith Street, it's a similar tale.

To cope with the economic downturn, the company has cut prices for expensive items like abalone and dried scallop.

Last year, a 454g can of popular abalone brand Calmex Abalone, would cost $108. This year, prices have been reduced by $10. Prices of dried scallop are 15 to 20 per cent cheaper this year, ranging from $88 to $250.

Still, some customers are playing a wait-and-see game because they hope prices will drop further if they do last-minute shopping just one or two days before next Sunday's reunion dinner.

That's the typical mentality of most Singaporeans said Mr Tan Teng Seng, 58, Managing Director of Mei Guo Ginseng.

But providing further discounts on top of these slashed prices isn't viable for business to survive, he noted.

His outlet has already slashed prices by 10 to 20 per cent for various seafood such as scallop, sea cucumber and abalone.

Besides, he pointed out: 'If we further cut prices yet again in the last few days before the New Year, that will be unfair to our loyal customers who bought from us earlier.'

Certain traditional Chinese New Year delicacies have also fallen out of favour over the years.

For instance, younger consumers are opting not to consume shark's fin these days. And even though there is shortage of supply worldwide, shops here aren't about to increase their prices.

That's because retailers like Mrs Tam Yet Kee, 46, the boss of Tam Kah Shark's Fin, fear that there will be even fewer buyers if prices are increased.

Nevertheless, Mrs Tam said the outlook isn't completely bleak.

She said beaming: 'We are still able to make a profit.'

However, it's not just the retailers hawking expensive goods that are slashing prices. Even retailers like Mr Yip Wai Keong, 47, of Chinatown Guangzhou Fruits Trading, are doing so.

Mr Yip, who hawks items like wax ducks and Chinese sausage - which are much cheaper than abalone and shark's fin - has decided to cut prices this year.

Pricing strategy

Mr Yip's strategy is to sell at a lower price but - hopefully - in greater quantities. He said: 'If you increase the prices, people can't accept it in these bad times.

'So, because we are scared to lose the customers, we will keep our prices low.'

A whole duck now costs $32, down $3 from last year. Chinese sausages now cost $34 per kg, down $6 from last year.

Like Mrs Tam, he admitted: 'My profit is lower but it's Chinese New Year and I have faith in Chinatown. People are still buying, just in smaller quantities.'

Cheaper prices for high-end items have gotten mixed reactions from the ground.

Housewife Madeline Ng, 56, gave the discounts the thumbs up. In a recent shopping trip to Chinatown, she bought five cans of bird's nest at 10 per cent off and some scallops at 20 per cent off.

She plans to use the items she bought as gifts as well as to prepare a sumptuous reunion dinner for her family.

Another shopper, Mrs D Tan, 32, an administrative executive, also felt that the lower prices were attractive.

However, she pointed out that there isn't much awareness of these lower prices in Chinatown.

Most consumers like her didn't even bother checking out the prices of such high-end items because the immediate assumption was they remained expensive.

She said that she had already bought her abalone at a warehouse sale, but would have considered buying it from Chinatown if she'd known about the offers.

- Additional reporting by Han Su-Ying.

For some shops, it's still boom time

WHILE some businesses are struggling to get consumers to spend on high-end items, business is booming for other stores selling Chinese New Year goodies.

For instance, a queue of some 50 people was spotted outside bak kwa (barbecued pork) shop Lim Chee Guan (right), along New Bridge Road.

Demand certainly seems high even though prices have not fallen.

While owner of the business, Mr Rod Lim, 58, wouldn't reveal how much profit the company was generating, he confirmed business was 'comparable' to last year.

Since prices were increased mid-last year due to the rising cost of raw materials like pork, bak kwa at his store has remained unchanged at the current price of $42 per kg, he pointed out.

And as is the store's usual practice, prices will rise the closer it gets to Chinese New Year.

But whether or not it will reach last year's high of $50per kg remains to be seen, said Mr Lim.

Mr Lim said: 'There's a 50-50 chance depending on demand, but reaching $48 is quite certain.'

He added: 'We don't give discounts because every year, we make sure we maintain a certain standard, so we have confidence in our product.'

What also helps is that unlike some luxury goodies, this oily titbit is seen as a must-have for the festive period.

Said Mr Lim: 'People are still buying because it's an important Chinese custom - they buy it as a gift for others.

Likewise, the well-known Tai Thong Cake shop hasn't reduced prices for its popular pineapple tarts, kueh bangkit and love letters.

Supervisor Mr Alvin Png, 45, said prices have remained the same for the past three years.

Prices can't be cut further, he pointed out, because of rising costs of raw materials such as plastic containers.

Plus, Mr Png added: 'Our prices may not be the cheapest but all our cookies are hand-made and we use good-quality products.'

'When people buy us, they know they don't have to worry about food safety.'

And despite prices staying the same, business seems to be good. Orders for New Year cookies have increased by about 5 per cent, he said, beaming.


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Carry a plastic bag in Delhi and get jailed

Today Online 19 Jan 09;

NEW DELHI — The global battle against plastic took a draconian turn when officials in New Delhi announced last Friday a penalty for carrying a polythene shopping bag.

Officials in India’s capital have decided that the only way to stem the rising tide of rubbish is to completely outlaw the plastic shopping bag. According to the official note, the “use, storage and sale” of plastic bags of any kind or thickness will be banned.

The new guideline means that customers, shopkeepers, hoteliers and hospital staff face a 100,000 rupee fine ($306) and possible jail time for using non-biodegradable bags.

New Delhi has been steadily filling up with plastic bags in recent years as the economy has boomed and western-style shopping malls have sprung up in the city. Environmentalists say more than 10 million are used in the capital every day.

To begin with, the ban will be lightly enforced, giving people time to switch to cotton, recycled paper and compostable bags.

Civil servants said that punitive measures were needed after a law prohibiting all but the thinnest plastic bags — with sides no thicker than 0.04mm — was ignored.

Officials said that it would be up to the court to decide on how harsh a sentence an offender might face. THE GUARDIAN


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Singapore firm develops system to cut vessel emissions

Ecospec develops system to cut vessel emissions
Singapore firm tests breakthrough tech on oil tanker
Vince Wee, Business Times 19 Jan 09;

HOMEGROWN research and technology company Ecospec Global Technology has developed a new system to reduce emissions from vessels. The firm believes the technology may have the potential to generate over US$100 million in sales in its first year alone.

Ecospec's new CSNOx device is believed to be the first in the world that is able to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxide (NOx), sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon dioxide (CO2) and particulate matter (PM) by up to 90 per cent through a single process system.

The company has successfully tested the system onboard an oil tanker in a joint effort with classification society American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) and one of the leading Singapore-based tanker operators. The results of the test show that the device has 92.9 per cent, 82.2 per cent and 74.4 per cent efficiency for scrubbing SO2, NOx and CO2 respectively.

Maritime regulators are starting to enforce stricter emissions standards, with the higher requirements under Marpol Annex VI due to be phased in by the middle of next year.

'This is a major breakthrough for the global shipping industry,' said Ecospec managing director Chew Hwee Hong. 'Prior to CSNOx, there is no single equipment aboard ships with the capability to remove CO2, SO2, NOx and PM at a go, and not generate further CO2 emissions during the process or acidify the ocean.'

He added that the tanker operator that Ecospec is working with - believed to be a major Greek-owned company - is moving towards full implementation and he expects about 100 installations this year. Each system costs about US$1 million not inclusive of installation and engineering costs on the vessel which will depend on its size. 'Shipping customers in Singapore have been very interested,' said Mr Chew.

Ecospec expects to get full certification from ABS in six months to one years' time. Potential customers are expected to come from the oil and gas, offshore and marine and power industries, said sales director Tony Eng. Ecospec is talking to all the major oil companies such as Chevron, Exxon and Shell, barring BP, he added. BP is known to be developing another system with British company Krystallon.

Mr Eng noted that power companies - including all three Singapore power stations - have shown interest in Ecospec's technology. One key component is that the plants need to be relatively close to the sea as a source of water supply.


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Sumatran Tiger Killed; One Left In West Sumatra

Nivell Rayda, The Jakarta Globe 19 Jan 09;

The critically endangered wild Sumatran tigers received a major blow over the weekend after a tiger was killed in West Sumatra Province, bringing the total population of known tigers in the province to just one.

An official from the West Sumatra provincial wildlife conservation agency on Saturday reported that the animal was trapped and killed by locals after it was discovered roaming near a village.

“We will deploy 40 officers to protect the only remaining tiger by regularly patrolling [the area] to stop humans from endangering the animal or the other way around,” said the official, Indra Arinal.

He said the tiger was found ensnared in a trap originally designed to capture wild boars in a local forest.

Although no one has claimed responsibility, Indra suspected that the killing was motivated by revenge.

“Last year, at least three people were attacked by the tigers,” he said.

Indra said rampant deforestation to make way for cocoa and palm oil plantations had seen the tigers’ habitat shrink to only around 300 hectares of protected forest.

The situation has resulted in increased contact between humans and tigers.

“This creates conflict between man and tigers, as they enter the plantations in search of food or to cross to another forest,” Indra said.

He added that human activities caused the tigers to become more stressed and aggressive.

The total population of Sumatran tigers is thought to be less than 500, but the continuing loss of habitat, illegal trade and conflict with humans pose big threats to their survival.

The Ministry of Forestry says an average of 33 tigers are killed each year, though more killings go unrecorded.

The tigers are killed to be stuffed or for their fur.

The price of a preserved full-grown tiger starts at Rp 25 million ($2,250) on the black market, while furs are sold for between Rp 12 million and Rp 25 million.


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Returning to 'normal' is not an option

Dominic Waughray, Straits Times 19 Jan 09

WE KNOW that 2008 will go down in history as a bad year for the world economy. In the first half of the year, volatile commodity prices, especially for food and oil, hit the world's poorest people hard. In the second half, there was the global financial catastrophe.

Yet, could the crises of food, fuel and finance that we experienced last year simply be three canaries in the coal mine? What if these are just the early warning signals that our current economic system is not sustainable at a much deeper level?

The World Economic Forum convened over 700 international experts in Dubai last November to discuss the world agenda for this year. Among them were more than 120 leading experts in environment, sustainability and human security.

Their conclusions were startling. We face an environmental security problem that is deeper, more fundamental, more complex and much more systemic than the financial crisis. 2008 could merely be the precursor to a perfect economic storm, the like of which we have never seen.

Over the past 50 years, we have amassed unprecedented financial wealth, but we have also chronically underpriced risk in terms of our natural resource base. We have financed our extraordinary growth in aggregate living standards by systematically under-pricing the goods and services we derive from our planet's natural resources, the negative externalities we create by polluting them, and the future risks we face from our cumulative depletion and degradation of them.

Those of us in middle age today in richer countries are the third successive generation to benefit from the natural resource bubble that our first world economy has exploited since the mid 20th century. It is highly unlikely - unless we make some deep, structural changes - that our children and their children will experience the same sense of progress and wealth.

Here are just a few chilling observations from the experts who met in Dubai:

# If present trends continue, nearly four billion people will live in areas of high water stress by 2030. As we try to feed and fuel a growing and a more affluent world, the water situation shows every sign of getting much worse. Simply augmenting water supply is no longer possible in most places. Historical approaches to water use will not work in the future.

# The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts world energy demand to increase by 45 per cent by 2030, with coal accounting for more than a third of this rise. About 87 per cent of the increase in demand will come from countries outside the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development where energy poverty is currently highest. The IEA say these energy trends are 'patently unsustainable, economically, environmentally and socially'.

# The world will need to double food production in the next 40 years to meet projected demand. Over one billion people today - one-sixth of the world's population - do not have access to adequate food and nutrition. Our ability to meet current and future production needs is seriously challenged by increasing water scarcity, climate change and volatile energy costs and supplies.

# Humanitarian assistance will increase to unprecedented levels if, as commentators foresee, climate change and water scarcity result in large-scale migration. The International Red Cross estimates there are 25 million to 50 million climate change refugees already, compared to the official refugee population of 28 million. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that there could be 150 million environmental refugees by 2020. In international law currently, there is no such thing as an environmental refugee.

The Global Risks 2009 report from the World Economic Forum reinforces the scale of all these challenge. Economic strategies that follow the same industrial trajectory as before will not bring the resilience that is needed for long-term job creation, wealth generation and sustained economic growth into the future. Oil prices will rise, commodity prices will become more volatile and energy, food and water security issues will grow. We will breach the emissions limits scientists tell us that we must keep within if we are to avoid dangerous climate change.

It seems that the world can ill afford to 'return to normal'. The financial crisis gives a stark warning of what can happen if known economic risks are left to fester. These fundamental environmental risks need to be addressed if we are to survive and thrive.

In this context, arguably the most serious World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in years will be held in Davos, Switzerland, later this month. More political, business and civil society leaders than ever before are due to take part. In these unprecedented times, can government and business leaders forge a new coalition to develop a set of practical global actions, which can stimulate economic growth in the short run and create the foundations of a more sustainable, low carbon economy for the longer run?

2008 gave us the stern warning that current trends cannot be continued. We face a perfect economic storm if hidden sustainability challenges catch up with our so called real economy challenges.

Can 2009 be the year when we find innovative new collaborations to help shape the post crisis world? We must, as returning to 'normal' is not an option.

The writer is Head of Environmental Initiatives in the World Economic Forum.


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Obama 'has four years to save Earth'

US must take the lead to avert eco-disaster
Robin McKie, The Observer 18 Jan 09;

Barack Obama has only four years to save the world. That is the stark assessment of Nasa scientist and leading climate expert Jim Hansen who last week warned only urgent action by the new president could halt the devastating climate change that now threatens Earth. Crucially, that action will have to be taken within Obama's first administration, he added.

Soaring carbon emissions are already causing ice-cap melting and threaten to trigger global flooding, widespread species loss and major disruptions of weather patterns in the near future. "We cannot afford to put off change any longer," said Hansen. "We have to get on a new path within this new administration. We have only four years left for Obama to set an example to the rest of the world. America must take the lead."

Hansen said current carbon levels in the atmosphere were already too high to prevent runaway greenhouse warming. Yet the levels are still rising despite all the efforts of politicians and scientists.

Only the US now had the political muscle to lead the world and halt the rise, Hansen said. Having refused to recognise that global warming posed any risk at all over the past eight years, the US now had to take a lead as the world's greatest carbon emitter and the planet's largest economy. Cap-and-trade schemes, in which emission permits are bought and sold, have failed, he said, and must now be replaced by a carbon tax that will imposed on all producers of fossil fuels. At the same time, there must be a moratorium on new power plants that burn coal - the world's worst carbon emitter.

Hansen - head of the Goddard Institute of Space Studies and winner of the WWF's top conservation award - first warned Earth was in danger from climate change in 1988 and has been the victim of several unsuccessful attempts by the White House administration of George Bush to silence his views.

Hansen's institute monitors temperature fluctuations at thousands of sites round the world, data that has led him to conclude that most estimates of sea level rises triggered by rising atmospheric temperatures are too low and too conservative. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says a rise of between 20cm and 60cm can be expected by the end of the century.

However, Hansen said feedbacks in the climate system are already accelerating ice melt and are threatening to lead to the collapse of ice sheets. Sea-level rises will therefore be far greater - a claim backed last week by a group of British, Danish and Finnish scientists who said studies of past variations in climate indicate that a far more likely figure for sea-level rise will be about 1.4 metres, enough to cause devastating flooding of many of the world's major cities and of low-lying areas of Holland, Bangladesh and other nations.

As a result of his fears about sea-level rise, Hansen said he had pressed both Britain's Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences to carry out an urgent investigation of the state of the planet's ice-caps. However, nothing had come of his proposals. The first task of Obama's new climate office should therefore be to order such a probe "as a matter of urgency", Hansen added.


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Most glaciers will disappear by middle of century and add to rising sea levels, expert warns

• Melt rates for 2007 fall but still third worst on record
• Threat to livelihoods of 2bn dependent on rivers
Juliette Jowitt, The Guardian 19 Jan 09;

Most of the planet's glaciers are melting so fast that they will disappear by the middle of the century, a leading expert has warned. Figures from the World Glacier Monitoring Service show that although melt rates for 2007 fell substantially from record levels the previous year, the loss of ice was still the third worst on record.

The total mass left in the glaciers is now thought to be at the lowest level for "thousands of years".

Even under moderate predictions of global warming, the small glaciers, which make up the majority by number, will not recover, said Prof Wilfried Haeberli, the organisation's director.

The warning will raise concern among those who say that glacier melting is one of the greatest threats of climate change because it raises the risk of sudden avalanches of rocks and soil released from the ice, threatening the livelihoods of more than 2 billion people who depend on melt-water to feed rivers in summer. Glacier melting will also add to rising global sea levels.

"If the climate is not really cooling dramatically, they'll retreat and disintegrate," said Haeberli. "This means many will simply be lost in the next decades - 10, 20, 30, 40 years.

"If you have a realistic, mid-warming scenario, then there's no hope for the small glaciers - in the Pyrenees, in Africa, in the Andes or Rocky mountains. The large glaciers in Alaska and the Himalayas will take longer, but even those very large glaciers will change completely; they will be much, much smaller, and many of them will disintegrate, forming lakes in many cases."

The WGMS, whose backers include UN agencies and scientific bodies, collects annual data for up to 100 glaciers around the world, including 30 "reference" glaciers in nine different mountain ranges on four continents, for which data goes back nearly three decades.

Figures for 2005-06 showed the biggest loss of ice in a single year since those records began, and based on historic reconstructions, it was thought to be the worst year for 5,000 years.

The latest data for 2006-07 shows that 22 of the 27 reference glaciers for which data has been supplied lost mass, as did 55 of a longer list of 74 glaciers. The total losses were half that of the previous year, but still the third largest on record. In Europe it is thought glaciers have lost one quarter of their mass in the last eight years alone, said Haeberli.

Although the mass balance of glaciers would fluctuate with natural changes in temperatures and snowfall, climate scientists believe the sustained losses of recent decades are partly due to man-made global warming, with the 10 hottest years on record coming in the last 11 years.

"The general trend to increased loss rates is continuing," Haeberli said. "The year was a little bit less terrible than [the previous] year ... but still a very heavy loss. It's still two times the average loss rate of the 20th century."

Although the data only covers some of the world's glaciers, its figures are mirrored by reports from experts from around the globe.

Two years ago the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecast that if current trends continue, 80% of Himalayan glaciers will be gone in 30 years, although more recent estimates have suggested the 2060s or later.

Last year the UN environment programme and the WGMS jointly published data for 1,800 glaciers on all seven continents, which warned losses had been accelerating globally since the mid-1980s, so that the annual average decline for 1996-2005 was double that of the previous decade, and four times that of the decade before. Last week China Dialogue, a London-based organisation dedicated to debate on China's environment issues, launched a campaign to highlight the same trends in melting in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan plateau.

Those glaciers feed all the main river systems in Asia, depended on by the estimated 40% of the world's population that lives in northern India, Bhutan, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam, said Isabel Hilton, China Dialogue's editor.

"In a region that is already fractured and unstable, the melting of the 'third pole' glaciers is one of the most important challenges facing humanity in the 21st century," she said.

In December the US Geological Survey also warned that sea-level rise could be even worse than feared, as much as 1.5 metres by the end of this century, partly due to increased melting of the volume of water stored in glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland.

Nick Nuttall, a spokesman for UNEP, said the latest findings should encourage more governments to follow moves by some politicians to invest billions of dollars in clean energy and efficiency as a way of curbing greenhouse gases.

He urged world leaders to agree a treaty to cut emissions. Water experts have also called for more investment in better water management.


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