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Climate change 'faster in S-E Asia than elsewhere'
Straits Times 23 Jan 11;
If you still think climate change is a far-fetched idea in Singapore, think again.
A leading global reinsurer not only believes the region has been feeling the full effects of global warming in the past century, but also feels the rate of change is faster than in many other regions.
The proof: The number of natural disasters seen in South-east Asia, from floods to earthquakes, rose sharply from an annual average of 100 in the 1980s to 300 since the turn of the millennium.
A study released on Jan 4 by re-insurance giant Munich Re, a leading player in the market regionally, made this dire assessment.
Munich Re's head of corporate climate centre Ernst Rauch said warming temperatures were the clearest sign of climate change's toll. He was speaking to The Sunday Times at the insurer's office in the Central Business District.
He said large land masses surrounding the region, such as India and China, contributed to temperatures rising at a faster rate.
'In general, the northern hemisphere warmed up faster than the southern, due to the different means of adjusting to higher temperatures between oceans and land masses, with oceans (which are larger below the Equator) taking longer to warm up.'
All this adds up to devastating losses, both economically and in terms of human life.
Munich Re's study puts the financial losses from floods, storms and earthquakes in Asia at around US$1.1 billion (S$1.4 billion), second only to the North and South American continents.
More significantly, some 1.14 million lives were lost in Asia last year alone, higher than elsewhere.
A major problem in Asia is a lack of disaster preparedness. For example, governments and businesses may lack insurance protection.
'Despite insurance playing a major role in any country's adaptation measures, many Asian countries are not well insured although they are the most vulnerable,' said Mr Tan Yong Soon, permanent secretary (National Climate Change) in a recent speech here.
He added that most countries in the region still tended to react to
catastrophes after they had occurred, which usually meant a scramble for emergency and relief appeals.
Here in Singapore, an island state traditionally isolated from the more devastating disasters such as earthquakes, opinions may also be changing when it comes to getting insurance coverage. 'The floods in Singapore (last year), though small in the overall regional context, were an eye-opener as the perception traditionally here was that we are somehow immune to natural catastrophes,' said Mr Francis Savari, Munich Re's head of client port-folio management for the region.
'The floods have given the insurance industry an opportunity to discuss natural catastrophe exposures. This has not translated into an overnight explosion in business deals, but at least it has raised awareness,' he said.
Amresh Gunasingham
Singapore needs to find long-term solutions to floods, say experts
Amresh Gunasingham Straits Times 23 Jan 11;
Singapore's drainage system will have to grow with urbanisation if it wants to alleviate floods like the ones that hit Orchard Road unexpectedly last year.
Experts say a review of the country's infrastructure of drains and canals is needed, and long-term solutions have to be sought. This is especially so since past guidelines used here to design drains seem to have fallen short.
For example, an assumption used by planners when deciding on the size and capacity of a drain was to look at the rainfall patterns around the catchment area it serves.
It has been assumed that the rain is spread evenly over the area all year round. But bursts of rain over a short period, a trend climate scientists say is increasingly evident, were not factored in.
Said Associate Professor Tan Soon Keat from the Nanyang Environment and Water Research Institute at Nanyang Technological University (NTU): 'The distribution of rain tends (now) to be around smaller concentrated places, over a shorter period of time and of a larger quantity.'
Given that weather patterns need to be observed over several decades to spot a trend, it could take several decades to build up a database that factors in the changing climate here, said engineers.
Last year's Orchard Road floods provide a stark reminder of the vulnerability Singapore continues to face from random 'acts of God'.
Two intense deluges in June last year flooded the prime shopping belt with a magnitude not seen in decades.
Millions of dollars in goods and property were hit.
National water agency PUB came under intense public scrutiny. Questions were raised about the adequacy of drains to protect the rapidly urbanising landscape here.
It did not help that, in the immediate aftermath of the floods, the agency pointed to a blockage in a section of the 4km-long Stamford Canal that runs through the area as the cause of the floods.
That initial assessment puzzled experts The Sunday Times spoke to. They said the drains here are designed to be large enough to account for debris such as tree branches.
'Even if the drain was choked, the torrent that flows through the canal during a storm would push through (the debris),' said a former PUB engineer, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Most drains in Singapore are designed 'conservatively' to be up to 20 per cent larger than the capacity needed to cope with the heaviest rain recorded in any given catchment area, he added.
Such data are based on weather patterns dating back 100 years.
In fact, despite such built-in reserve capacity, a post-flood review of the Stamford Canal found that its capacity was inadequate to cope with the actual deluges last year.
Thus armed, the PUB hopes a project now under way to raise a 1.4km stretch of Orchard Road that runs diagonally to the canal will help to keep the floods away.
The agency is also working with buildings in the area, such as Liat Towers, to put in place flood barriers that can keep storm water away.
The Government is also reviewing the entire network of drains and canals to 'see what more can be done to increase Singapore's level of protection against flood risks', said a PUB spokesman.
'This review is ongoing and details will be shared at an appropriate time,' she added, declining to reveal more.
In the meantime, planning ahead could, at times, be reduced to a guessing game.
NTU's Prof Tan, who has been consulted by the authorities on drainage projects here, added that the network of drains and canals has to be looked at in totality.
'A catchment area such as Orchard will have a lot of 'subcatchments' which drain into the main drain at certain points,' he explained.
In the event of an unusually intense storm, if the drains' 'downstream and upstream are at a peak, it could result in hydraulic choking', he said. This is akin to three adults trying to squeeze through a door large enough for only one person.
Such potential 'choke points' can occur in areas that have been rapidly urbanised, meaning drains further downstream have to be built large enough to cope with a higher run-off.
'If everything works like a clock, then there are no issues. But some coincidental factors could come into play,' said Prof Tan.
The PUB spokesman explained that these factors had been considered in its review of Orchard Road's drains, leading to the decision to raise a stretch of the road.
Work also started last November to deepen Bukit Timah Canal, a project which is being done in two phases. The first phase involves widening a stretch between Jalan Kampong Chantek and Maple Avenue, and should be completed by the end of next year.
The second phase will see an upgrading of the canal between Bukit Timah Road and Clementi Road. Work should start by the end of the year.
PUB has invested $2 billion in the past 30 years to upgrade drainage infrastructure across the island to alleviate floods. It will be investing $150 million a year for the next five years.
This has helped reduce flood-prone areas in Singapore by 98 per cent, from 3,178ha in 1970 to about 58ha today. It hopes to better this figure to 40ha by 2013.
Matt Walker BBC News 22 Jan 11;
The "newest" cat species described to science, the Sunda clouded leopard, actually exists in two distinct forms, scientists have confirmed.
This big cat is so enigmatic that researchers only realised it was a new species - distinct from clouded leopards living elsewhere in Asia - in 2007. The first footage of the cat in the wild to made public was only released last year.
Now a genetic analysis has confirmed that the cat comes in two forms, one living in Sumatra, the other on Borneo.
Clouded leopards are the most elusive of all the big cats, which include lions, tigers, jaguars, snow leopards and normal spotted leopards.
Living across south-east Asia, into China and India, the leopards have larger cloud-like spots than ordinary leopards.
Until 2006, all clouded leopards were thought to belong to a single species.
However, genetic studies revealed that there are actually two quite distinct clouded leopard species.
As well as the better known clouded leopard living on the Asian mainland (Neofelis nebulosa), scientists determined that a separate clouded leopard species lives on the islands of Borneo and Sumatra.
The two species are thought to have diverged over one million years ago.
This leopard is now known as the Sunda clouded leopard (Neofelis diardi), though it was previously and erroneously called the Bornean clouded leopard.
Since 2008, it has been listed as vulnerable by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature.
In 2010, a team of scientists working in the Dermakot Forest Reserve in Malaysia released the first footage of the cat in the wild to be made public.
Led by Mr Andreas Wilting of the Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research in Berlin, Germany, the researchers captured images of a Sunda clouded leopard walking along a road.
Now Mr Wilting and colleagues have published new research which reveals even more about this mysterious cat.
They sampled 15 Sunda clouded leopards living on Borneo and 16 living in Sumatra, conducting molecular and genetic studies to reveal their origin.
The researchers also examined the skulls of 28 further Sunda clouded leopards and the fur coats of 20 specimens held in museums, as well as the coats of cats photographed on both islands.
"Although we suspected that Sunda clouded leopards on Borneo and Sumatra have likely been geographically separated since the last Ice Age, it was not known whether this long isolation had caused them to split up into separate sub-species," explains Wilting.
But his team's analysis confirms that the latest "new" species of cat to be discovered actually comes in two forms, a Bornean subspecies N. d. borneensis and the Sumatran subspecies N. d. diardi.
Their results are published in the journal Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution.
The differences aren't obvious: the Sunda clouded leopards on Borneo and Sumatra look alike.
Both cats have similar patterned coats as they live in similar jungle habitats, the researchers suspect.
But as well as being genetically distinct, the clouded leopards on both islands are also morphologically different, having unique features in their skulls and teeth.
It is unclear what caused the Sunda clouded leopard to evolve into two forms.
"So far we can only speculate about the specific course of events in the evolution of the clouded leopard," says team member Joerns Fickel, also at the Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research.
But the researchers think that a volcanic eruption on Sumatra 75,000 years ago may have wiped out most clouded leopards.
One group survived in China and colonised the rest of mainland Asia.
Another hung on in Borneo, becoming the Sunda clouded leopard. This evolved into two types after a group colonised Sumatra via glacial land bridges, and then became cut off as sea levels rose.
Rare Sunda clouded leopard has two distinct types
Yahoo News 23 Jan 11;
KUALA LUMPUR (AFP) – Tests have proven a long-held belief that Borneo's rare Sunda clouded leopard is really a different subspecies from its Indonesian relative, according to researchers.
The two subspecies of Sunda leopard -- which was only identified as a species in its own right in 2007 -- must now be managed differently, said a report by Andreas Wilting from the Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research and researchers from the Sabah wildlife and forestry departments.
"The Sunda clouded leopard in Borneo and Sumatra is a different species from clouded leopards across the Asian mainland," Wilting told AFP.
"We suspected the leopards on Borneo and Sumatra have likely been geographically separated since the last Ice Age, and we now know the long isolation has resulted in a split into separate subspecies," he added.
"The potential that they could evolve into full separate species, given that they are separate subspecies, means that captive breeders will now be better informed to keep the subspecies apart to allow them to evolve fully."
Wilting said that molecular analysis, genetic testing and skull morphology studies on fur and bone samples of the leopard from natural history museums worldwide showed the species followed different evolutionary paths.
The researchers say natural disasters were likely responsible for the split, with only two populations of the leopards in Borneo and southern China surviving the Toba volcanic eruption in Sumatra about 75,000 years ago.
"The ones on Borneo could have recolonised Sumatra via glacial land bridges and subsequently developed into a different subspecies as sea levels rose after the last Ice Age, isolating the two islands," said co-author Joerns Fickel.
Wilting said both subspecies are classified as endangered by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature because the big cats occur in small numbers and need big home ranges for their survival.
Researchers say the subspecies is the biggest predator on Borneo, a resource-rich island split between Malaysia and Indonesia where wildlife habitats are under pressure from logging and plantations.
Last February, researchers were able for the first time to capture the leopard on film at the Dermakot Forest Reserve on Borneo.
Expert says closing dive sites only one measure of many needed to battle bleaching
Bangkok Post 23 Jan 11;
Closing popular diving sites will provide only short-term relief to the problem of coral bleaching, but cost the tourism industry millions of baht a year, industry experts say.
The Marine and Coastal Resources Department is pressing ahead with a plan to close 10 popular diving sites in five provinces to limit the impact of tourism on severely damaged coral.
The sites attract about one million tourists a year, and could be closed for up to 14 months.
But diving operators say tourism is but one cause of the bleaching phenomemon, and if the diving sites are closed for as long as proposed, taxpayer help may be needed to keep some companies alive.
"Diving companies are being singled out for blame, when the main cause is a warming of sea temperatures," said one disgruntled company head.
Some coral reefs may need several years to recover, not just a matter of months, they say.
Veteran marine biologist Thorn Thanrongnawasawat said closing the coral reefs will give the coral time to recover, but more permanent solutions are still needed.
He said man-made dive sites should be developed to help relieve pressure on popular coral reefs. Artificial reefs should also be produced, and coral transplanting considered.
"Closing the dive sites gives the coral an opportunity to revive.
"This does not mean that the coral will revive automatically, however. It really depends on how we tackle other factors that may affect them such as water pollution," said Dr Thorn, who heads the department of marine science at Kasetsart University's faculty of fisheries.
Scientists believe the main cause of the bleaching is the warming of the oceans, which forces zooxanthallae, an algae which coexists with the coral and gives it colour, to extract itself from the coral. Many coral reefs in the Andaman Sea have turned a pale yellow or white colour and gradually died.
The diving sites facing temporary closure to allow coral to recover from bleaching are located in Hat Nopparattara-Mu Koh Phi Phi National Park in Krabi; Mu Koh Surin Marine National Park (Phangnga); Mu Koh Rang National Park (Trat); Koh Tao (Surat Thani); and Koh Pai and Koh Kang Kao (Chon Buri).
Defending the proposed closure, the department says that without immediate action, the corals may be lost permanently, which would cause even more economic damage.
Dr Thorn said the closures which stand to affect tourists the most are in Surin and Tarutao Marine National Parks, where up to 80% of corals have bleached.
Some tourism operators say the extent of the damage has been exaggerated.
Fabian Teruel, general manager of Khao Lak Scuba Adventure and a member of the Khao Lak Diving Operator Forum in Phangnga province, said news about coral bleaching has hurt local businesses.
Many tourists mistakenly believed that coral leaching was widespread.
At some sites, such as the Similan Islands, bleaching had affected only only a few dive sites.
Customers had asked about the closures, and some threatened to cancel bookings.
"We can still dive in several spots. We want to make clear that some islands such as Surin may have been affected, but there are several other places like the Similan islands which have not been affected much by the phenomenon," Mr Teruel said.
The government was wrong to blame divers for destroying coral reefs.
Most divers were environmentally conscious, and would not try to harm the coral.
Jannee Jandamneornpong, manager of the Phi Phi Scuba Diving Centre, said operators were willing to cooperate with the closure but the government should come up with measures to help them survive.
Tourism businesses on the island had yet to recover fully since the 2004 tsunami.
"We are business operators, but we are also concerned for the environment. Without a quality environment, we cannot survive," said Ms Jannee.
Reef Bans: 'Passionate' Andaman Divers Speak Out
Phuketwan 23 Jan 11;
KHAO LAK dive operators have issued a statement aimed at clarifying the confusion surrounding aspects of the sudden closure of a number of Andaman dive sites. The group, the Khao Lak Dive Operators Forum, represents 26 operators. The statement is as follows:
Due to higher than normal sea water temperatures in 2010, some of the hard corals around the Similan and Surin Islands have been damaged by coral bleaching. Coral bleaching is a well-known phenomenon and has occurred several times in various parts of the world over the past century. The term covers an event where the symbiotic colored algae living inside the coral are released due to stress (high temperature, for example). When the algae have been released, the coral appears white, hence the term ''coral bleaching.''
If you would like to have more information about coral bleaching please click on the following link to see a presentation from Dr Mark Eakin, the Coordinator of NOAA's Coral ReefWatch program. www.climatewatch.noaa.gov
In the Similan and Surin Islands, the highest impact has been on hard corals in shallow water, where the sea temperature is generally higher than in deeper water. Members of the KLDOF have been very happy to observe a speedy recovery of certain types of coral, especially soft corals, which appeared to have suffered from the bleaching effect as well. Corals located deeper than 12 meters have suffered no or very little damage.
We as dive operators are passionate about the environment in which we live and work. Therefore we are very concerned about the condition of the reef. It is proven that there is absolutely no connection between diving and coral bleaching, but we feel the need to be even more careful around the reef to prevent further stress.
With more than 25 named dive sites, the region offers ample opportunity to dive and snorkel. Our recommendation would be to temporarily close the dive sites most affected in the Similan Islands, namely East of Eden, Beacon Reef and Breakfast Bend.
These dive sites are located on the east side of the islands. Dive sites on the west side have only been minimally affected and have many colorful corals and a wide range of marine life.
Famous dive sites such as Elephant Head Rock, Koh Tachai Pinnacle, and Richelieu Rock still offer great diving. The stag horn coral at Koh Bon has been affected; however there have been a record number of Manta Ray sightings this season.
In addition, we think it would be worth considering re-opening some of the dive sites around the southern Similan Islands, such as Fantasy Reef, which has had a number of years to recover.
Simultaneously, the KLDOF has contacted several scientists, organisations and universities specializing in monitoring and improving coral health. In previous coral bleaching events there has been successful recovery of damaged reefs, as the temperature drops.
Projects are being started to monitor the development of the corals and other individual projects are ongoing.
We will continue to observe all rules and regulations implemented for this region and offer our assistance to the National Park Head Offices involved. Additionally, we will re-enforce our strict rules for visiting divers on the boats operated by us, in terms of the policy ''absolutely no touching, feeding or harassing marine life and no rubbish thrown overboard''.
We, the dive operators and dive community in Khao Lak, are eager to do everything within our possibilities to protect and conserve the wonderful underwater world.
Khao Lak, Thailand, January 22nd, 2011
The Khao Lak Dive Operators Forum is a forum for boat operators in Khao Lak, Thailand. Members represent 26 dive shops, arranging snorkel and/or diving trips to the Similan and Surin Islands.
Manila Bulletin 22 Jan 11;
BUTUAN CITY, Philippines (PNA) — Shorelines in coastal areas in Caraga Region are slowly disappearing as they are being submerged in seawater because of rising seawater.
This is according to two non-government organizations (NGOs) involved in climate change adaptations and disaster preparedness initiatives.
Botanist Teresa "Tet" Bordadera of NGO Green Coalition said they observed shores along coastlines in three Caraga provinces — Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte and Agusan del Norte — were slowly disappearing as rising seawater is already eating up shores by at least 10 meters and in some areas as long as 30 to 50 meters.
Some residents along the coastlines are thus forced to relocate, she noted.
Bordadera expressed fear that a few years from now if the rising seawater level trend would continue, coastal areas including smaller Caraga islands will sink and be wiped out from the map.
Surigao del Sur province where most of the coastal areas are facing Pacific Ocean and holds the distinction as a province having the longest shoreline, is now very active in Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction Initiatives.
Bordadera, in an interview Friday, told the Philippines News Agency that based on initial studies they made, at least five smaller islands in Caraga Region that are facing Pacific Ocean already sank or have been submerged by rising seawater level.
It can be recalled that a group of Filipino artists and individuals calling themselves Tiktok For Climate Change Action also claimed islands in Surigao provinces are already sinking.
Artist Ping Medina who is one of the officials of TikTok, was here in Caraga Region last December to attend a forum on Climate Change at Philippine Gateway Hotel and Convention in Surigao City. He specifically cited that Gigaquit town and surfing capital General Luna’s shores are fast disappearing.
Medina advised local government unit (LGU) officials of said town to come up with fast and effective solutions before rising seawater levels destroy lives and properties in the days to come.
Both Medina and Bordadera cited what is happening to Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean and other island states which are now also being submerged in seawater.
“And because their atolls were now submerged by ocean waters, they are now being hounded by many legal issues, their source of potable waters are being contaminated by salt waters, their livelihood is affected and the future of their children is becoming uncertain,” Bordadera added.
Bordadera stressed that now is the time for all Filipinos to do their share in preserving the country’s remaining forests to avert more calamities.
ScienceDaily 22 Jan 11;
Scientists from NOAA Fisheries Service and its state and nonprofit partners successfully used at-sea chemical sedation to help cut the remaining ropes from a young North Atlantic right whale on January 15 off the coast of Cape Canaveral, Fla. The sedative given to the whale allowed the disentanglement team to safely approach the animal and remove 50 feet of rope which was wrapped through its mouth and around its flippers.
Scientists from NOAA Fisheries Service approaching the young North Atlantic right whale they disentangled on January 15 off the coast of Cape Canaveral, Fla. (Credit: Image courtesy of NOAA; with permission from EcoHealth Alliance)
This is only the second time a free-swimming whale has been successfully sedated to enable disentanglement efforts. The first time a whale was successfully sedated and disentangled was in March 2009 off the coast of Florida.
"Our recent progress with chemical sedation is important because it's less stressful for the animal, and minimizes the amount of time spent working on these animals while maximizing the effectiveness of disentanglement operations," said Jamison Smith, Atlantic Large Whale Disentanglement Coordinator for NOAA's Fisheries Service. "This disentanglement was especially complex, but proved successful due to the detailed planning and collective expertise of the many response partners involved."
The young female whale, born during the 2008-2009 calving season and estimated to be approximately 30 feet long, was originally observed entangled on Christmas Day by an aerial survey team. On December 30, a disentanglement team of trained responders from Georgia Department of Natural Resources and Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission were able to remove 150 feet of rope from the whale, but additional rope remained. NOAA and its partners continued to track the animal via satellite tag to determine if the animal would shed the remaining gear on its own. Calm weather conditions were necessary before attempting further intervention on January 15.
During this response, scientists used for the first time a special digital monitoring tag which recorded the whale's behavior before, during, and after sedation. Sedating large whales at sea is in its infancy and data collected from the digital archival tag will be used to inform future sedation attempts that may be necessary. After disentangling the whale, scientists administered a dose of antibiotics to treat entanglement wounds and drug to reverse the sedation. The whale will be tracked up to 30-days via a temporary satellite tag.
The disentanglement and veterinarian team consisted of scientists from: NOAA Fisheries Service, Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, University of Florida, EcoHealth Alliance, and Coastwise Consulting. The Provincetown Center for Coastal Studies and the New England Aquarium also provided offsite support.
Fishing gear removed from this whale included ropes and wire mesh material, similar to what is found in the trap or pot fisheries for fish, crab and lobster along the mid-Atlantic, northeast U.S., and Canadian coasts. However, the specific fishery and its geographic origin are pending examination by experts at NOAA's Fisheries Service.
With only 300-400 in existence, North Atlantic right whales are among the most endangered whales in the world. They are protected under the U.S. Endangered Species Act of 1973 and the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972. Vessel strikes and entanglement in fixed fishing gear are the two greatest threats to their recovery.
NOAA Fisheries Service encourages people to report sightings of dead, injured, or entangled whales to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission at 1-888-404-FWCC (3922) or the Georgia Department of Natural Resources at 1-800-2-SAVE-ME (272-8366). All live right whale sightings should be reported to the USCG via Channel 16.
The Independent 22 Jan 11;
Steve Connor reveals how scientists propose a major policy shift to tackle one of the great challenges of the 21st century
The finite resources of the Earth will be be stretched as never before in the coming 40 years because of the unprecedented challenge of feeding the world in 2050, leading scientists have concluded in a report to be published next week.
Food production will have to increase by between 70 and 100 per cent, while the area of land given over to agriculture will remain static, or even decrease as a result of land degradation and climate change. Meanwhile the global population is expected to rise from 6.8 billion at present to about 9.2 billion by mid-century.
The Government-appointed advisers are expected to warn that "business as usual" in terms of food production is not an option if mass famine is to be avoided, and to refer to the need for a second "green revolution", following the one that helped to feed the extra 3 billion people who have been added to the global population over the past 50 years.
In the hard-hitting report, commissioned by the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills, the scientists will warn that the era of cheap food is over, and that governments around the world must prepare to follow the leads of China and Brazil by investing heavily in research and the development of new agricultural techniques and practices.
The authors of the Foresight report, Global Food and Farming Futures, will argue that to boost crop yields to the level needed to provide enough food for all by 2050 every scientific tool must be considered, including the controversial use of genetically modified (GM) crops – which have been largely rejected by British consumers.
They will suggest that the public needs to be better convinced of the benefits of GM food, and will advocate an educational campaign to improve acceptance of what they see as one of a set of innovative technologies that can contribute to and improve food security in the coming century. "We say very clearly that we should not tie our hands behind our backs by dismissing GM," said one of the report's authors.
The scientists are expected to recommend that GM technology should be shifted away from the private sector to one that is mostly funded and deployed by publicly funded bodies, in order to avoid what is seen as the stranglehold of large agribusiness companies such as Monsanto.
To combat the huge amounts of food waste – up to 40 per cent of food bought in developed countries ends up being thrown away – the scientists are also expected to recommend changes to legislation covering "sell by" dates. Relaxing these restrictions, the scientists will argue, could help to reduce the enormous amount of edible food discarded by British consumers.
They also want to see a massive injection of funds into agricultural research, to reverse the decline of public funding in recent decades as a result of successive governments viewing agriculture as low priority in times when food was cheap and plentiful.
The report's conclusions and recommendations mirror closely those of a French study published last week on how to feed the world in 2050. The report by two leading research institutes, in a project entitled Agrimonde, found that nothing short of a food revolution is needed to avoid mass famine. "A few years ago the world and Europe was producing too much food, and food was getting cheaper and cheaper. Now world agriculture lies at the heart of major worldwide challenges, and [this report] tells us why business as usual is not an option," said Patrick Caron, one of the Agrimonde authors.
Like the UK's Foresight report, the French study found there is no overwhelming obstacle to feeding a global population of 9.2 billion people, provided food yields are boosted, waste is cut both after harvesting and in the kitchen, and food distribution is improved.
However, the French study also suggested there are two possible routes to feeding the world. One involves unsustainable improvements in crop yields which do not take into account the detrimental impact on the environment, while the other is a sustainable route which will involve people in the developed world consuming less and decreasing their average food intake.
"The world can properly feed 9 billion people by 2050, but it will depend on what's on our plates and what is wasted from our plates," said Sandrine Paillard, who contributed to the Agrimonde study.
People in the developed world could decrease their food consumption – as measured by daily energy intake – by an average of 25 per cent and still have a healthy diet, she said.
Case Study: Chinese family who exemplify the problem
The Chinese exemplify the trend in the developing world for people to move from the country, and a largely vegetarian diet, to the city, where they eat more meat and fish.
Han Xiaotao, 29, and his wife Cui Xiaona, 28, are migrant workers from the small town of Xingtai in Hebei province. They have moved to run a butcher stall at a market in Haidian in western Beijing.
"Life in the countryside is much simpler," said Mr Han. "There we ate simple food like noodles, mantou [steamed bread] and corn, and supplied vegetables for the family from our courtyard, things like cucumber, tomatoes, potatoes, cabbage and green onions. When I was young we had only cabbage every day."
They now regularly enjoy pork, beef and chicken. "My wife likes fish!" said Mr Han. "In the countryside, it is too difficult to buy fish. But here it is so easy."
New 'green revolution' must boost yields yet preserve the environment
The principle problem of feeding the world in 2050, when the global population is expected to peak at about 9.2 billion people, is to increase food production without extending the area of land set aside for agriculture.
Scientists believe the only way this can be done is by bridging the "yield gap" between what a plot of land should be able to produce, with the best techniques and practices, and the actual amount of food produced.
This is seen as one of the main goals of agricultural research over coming decades. The problem will be exacerbated by the need to increase yields sustainably without damaging the environment either through soil degradation or water pollution.
During the "green revolution" of the 1960s and 1970s crop yields were increased significantly through modern crop-breeding techniques and the use of agro-chemicals, such as fertilisers and pesticides. Over the past 50 years only about 9 per cent of extra land globally has been brought into agricultural production, yet some cereal crop yields have almost doubled.
However this past increase is unlikely to continue into the future without radical changes to the way food is produced, stored and transported. For a start, some agricultural land that was productive in the past has been lost to urban development. Other land has suffered desertification, soil degradation or salinisation caused by over-irrigation.
Scientists estimate, for instance, that in parts of southeast Asia where irrigation is available, the average maximum rice yields that should be possible are about 8.5 tonnes per hectare. But actual average yields are only 60 per cent of this figure.
Maintaining a high yield requires continual innovation in order to control weeds, diseases, insects and other pests that can develop resistance to different control measures, and to counter crop diseases that emerge in areas previously free of them.
Scientists believe that crop yields should be increased by "sustainable intensification". This means improving the efficiency of food production without incurring the negative side effects on the environment seen in the first green revolution, when intensive farming led to higher yields but at the cost of environmental degradation.
Prosperity brings fresh challenges
A growing human population and a transformation in the diet of billions of people in the coming 40 years will place unprecedented pressure on food production, which will need a second "green revolution" to match the one that has helped to feed the world over the past half century.
The current population of around 6.8 billion people is expected to grow to just over 9 billion by 2050, and there will be a continuing mass migration of people from the countryside into cities. This urbanisation in developing nations will be coupled with an increase in wealth and a shift towards diets rich in meat and dairy produce, which require more farmland to produce compared to more vegetarian diets.
Although without immigration Europe's population is expected to decline by 2050, Africa's will double, China's will peak in about 2030, and India will overtake China as the world's most populous country by around 2020. The increased wealth and urbanisation of India and China in particular will place additional burdens on global food production.
Scientists have documented three phases of food consumption countries pass through as they develop. The first is known as the expansion phase, when undernourished people begin to eat more poor-quality food, mainly grain, roots, tubers and pulses. The second phase is substitution, when these staples are replaced by more energy-rich foods such as meat, dairy and vegetable oils.
The end result is the nutrition phase, when the increased production of high-energy foods requires more resources, for instance when grain is fed to livestock – this requires more land and agricultural inputs such as the use of pesticides and fertilisers.
Some developing countries experience all three phases at once, resulting in the double burden of undernutrition among the poorer classes, even as overnutrition and obesity emerge as problems in other sectors of their societies.
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