Bali climate talks advance despite squabbling

Gerard Wynn, Reuters 4 Dec 07;

NUSA DUA, Indonesia (Reuters) - A 190-nation climate meeting in Bali took small steps towards a new global deal to fight global warming by 2009 on Tuesday amid disputes about how far China and India should curb rising greenhouse gas emissions.

Yvo de Boer, the U.N.'s top climate official, praised the December 3-14 meeting of 10,000 participants for progress towards a goal of launching formal talks on a long-term climate pact to succeed the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol.

"But in this process, as in so many, the devil's in the detail," he cautioned in an interview with Reuters at a beach-side conference centre on the Indonesian island.

Governments set up a "special group" to examine options for the planned negotiations meant to bind the United States and developing nations led by China and India more firmly into fighting climate change beyond Kyoto.

The meeting also agreed to study ways to do more to transfer clean technologies, such as solar panels or wind turbines, to developing nations. Such a move is key to greater involvement by developing nations in tackling their climate-warming emissions.

The Kyoto Protocol now binds 36 rich nations to curb emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly from burning fossil fuels, by an average of 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-12 in a step to curb droughts, floods, heatwaves and rising seas.

But there was skirmishing about how to share out the burden beyond Kyoto and environmentalists accused Kyoto nations Japan and Canada of expecting China and India to do too much.

Canada said in a submission to the talks that "to be effective, a new international framework must include emission reduction obligations for all the largest emitting economies". It did not mention deeper cuts for rich nations beyond 2012.

And Japan on Monday called on all parties to effectively participate and contribute substantially. A Japanese official said it was "essential" that China and India were involved.

"Canada and Japan are saying nothing about legally binding emission reductions for themselves after 2012," said Steven Guilbeault of environmental group Equiterre. "They are trying to shift the burden to China and India."

NO FORMAL PROPOSALS

Green groups gave Japan a mock award as "Fossil of the Day" -- made daily to the nation accused of holding up the talks.

De Boer played down the environmentalists' objections, saying that all nations were merely laying out ideas. "A marriage contract is not something to discuss on a first date," he said. "No proposals have formally been made."

China and India say that rich nations must take on far deeper cuts in emissions and that they cannot take on caps yet because they need to burn more fossil fuels to end poverty.

The Bali talks are seeking a mandate to widen Kyoto to all nations beyond 2012. Of the world's top-five emitters, only Russia and Japan are part of Kyoto. The United States is outside the pact, while China and India are exempt from curbs.

And de Boer also said the talks should not focus solely on the plan to launch new negotiations. "There's a bit of a risk that countries that are very keen to see negotiations being launched go over the top and focus only on that," he said.

Developing nations were worried that more immediate issues -- such aid to help them cope with droughts, floods and rising seas -- could "be forgotten in all the excitement about the future", he said.

Outside the Bali conference centre on Tuesday, a group of environmentalists gave a mock swimming lesson to delegates, saying that rising seas could swamp low-lying tropical islands such as Bali unless they acted.

"Sea level rise is threatening hundreds of millions of people," they said. "Sink or swim!"

(Additional reporting by Alister Doyle, David Fogarty and Adhityani Arga in Bali; Editing by David Fogarty)


Talks focus on emission curbs on India, China
Straits Times 5 Dec 07;

BALI - THE hunt for a new global deal to fight climate change has started here with 190 countries skirmishing about how far China and India should curb surging greenhouse gas emissions.

'The conference got off to a very encouraging start,' said Mr Yvo de Boer, head of the United Nations Climate Change Secretariat.

Some 10,000 delegates are meeting to launch talks on a climate pact to succeed the UN's Kyoto Protocol.

After an opening day dominated by ceremony, governments set up a 'special group' to look at options for starting two years of talks meant to bind the United States and developing countries led by China and India more firmly to the fight to slow global warming.

Mr De Boer said the group of senior officials would report back to 130 environment ministers who will arrive next week at the talks in the resort island of Bali.

US delegates at the climate conference insisted they will not block a new international pact aimed at reducing potentially catastrophic greenhouse gases, but refuse to endorse mandatory emission cuts.

Many governmental delegations at the meeting see mandatory cuts as crucial to reining in rising temperatures.

The Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012, required the 36 signatories to cut emissions by 5 per cent below 1990 levels by 2008 to 2012.

Meanwhile, China and India say that rich countries must take on far deeper cuts in emissions, and that they cannot take on caps yet because they need to burn more fossil fuels to end poverty.

Environmentalists have accused Kyoto countries Japan and Canada of asking China and India to do too much.

REUTERS, ASSOCIATED PRESS

FACTBOX - What Bali Means for Carbon Markets
PlanetArk 5 Dec 07;

About 190 countries are meeting in Bali, Indonesia, aiming to kick-start two years of talks to agree a new global climate change deal to succeed the Kyoto Protocol from 2013.

Kyoto has created a carbon market whereby rich countries can meet their binding greenhouse gas emissions limits by funding emissions cuts in developing nations, through a trade in carbon offsets worth $5 billion last year.

That trade has attracted speculators including investment banks and specialised carbon project developers, and has cut the cost for rich countries of meeting their Kyoto targets.

Some supporters of carbon markets want these extended under a Kyoto successor to include huge emissions-cutting projects.

Following are carbon market issues under discussion at Bali:


REDUCED EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION

Under Kyoto, rich countries can earn carbon offsets by investing in projects to plant trees, which soak up the commonest man-made greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2).

Now some countries want to include forest protection, whereby rich nations earn offsets by paying countries not to chop trees down. Complicating issues include: calculating the CO2 saved; establishing whether these trees were really at risk; and whether the resulting offsets will make it too cheap for rich countries to offset their own emissions.

The Bali meeting will not decide whether avoided deforestation is included in carbon markets. The meeting may formally approve pilot projects to test inclusion from 2013.


CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

Burying CO2 underground, also called carbon capture and storage (CCS), is widely believed to be a crucial weapon without which carbon emissions may pass dangerous limits.

The technology is supposed to trap CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants, which are proliferating globally, and pump the gas underground. But there is no commercial-scale power plant project yet anywhere.

That is because of the extra expense to install CCS technology, estimated at $1 billion per plant.

The Bali meet will not decide whether to include CCS in the carbon market but may put it formally on the agenda for possible future inclusion, the UN's top climate official said.

Because no new commercial-scale CCS projects are expected to be operational for several years, the technology is only relevant to carbon markets in a Kyoto successor deal after 2012.


HFC PLANTS

At present under Kyoto rich nations can earn carbon offsets by funding the destruction of potent greenhouse gases called hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), a waste product from the manufacture of refrigerant gases for use in air conditioners.

Projects have drawn criticism because chemical plants, for example in China, now make more money destroying the greenhouse gas than from selling its refrigerant end product, removing any incentive not to produce the waste gas in the first place.

At present factories are not allowed to claim offsets for destroying the production of HFCs above a 2000-2004 baseline.

China wants to be able to sell offsets from subsequent, additional capacity. But the European Union is concerned that will encourage companies simply to manufacture the greenhouse gas in order to earn offsets, making these meaningless.

As a result the Bali meeting may not resolve this issue.

FACTBOX - What's on the Table at the Bali Climate Talks?
PlanetArk 5 Dec 07;

About 190 nations are meeting on Indonesia's Bali island to hammer out details for a broader global pact to fight climate change after the first phase of the Kyoto Protocol ends in 2012.

The United Nations hopes the Bali gathering will launch a two-year dialogue that will lead to a replacement of Kyoto or an expanded version of the pact.

Here is a guide to some of the issues on the table at Bali.

* TIGHTENING THE TARGETS:

-- Greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise despite countries' attempts to meet their Kyoto targets. And current Kyoto targets have been criticised as being too-little too-late.

-- The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in its latest scientific reports, says it is very likely the rapid rise in greenhouse emissions above natural levels is due to mankind's burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and agricultural practices. The European Union says an average temperature increase of no more than two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels should be considered the limit. Beyond this, the world is at risk from dangerous climate change, it says.

* BRINGING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES:

-- Drawing in developing countries excluded from Kyoto's first round, such as China, the world's second biggest carbon emitter, will be crucial if the new agreement is to avoid criticisms of inequity that have dogged Kyoto. The Bush administration pulled out of Kyoto saying it unfairly penalised its economy but is now under pressure to do more to rein in its own emissions.

* CARBON FORESTRY:

-- More carbon is emitted from deforestation than the global transport sector, but forests are not factored into Kyoto.

-- For the past few years forest-rich developing countries such as Indonesia have been lobbying to monetise the "avoided carbon emissions" their forest carbon stores represent.

-- Paying poor countries to protect mature trees prevents carbon emissions while offsetting the financial losses involved in passing up lucrative forest clearances for timber and plantation concessions, supporters of schemes such as Reduced Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries (REDD) say.

* TECHNOLOGY TRANSFERS:

-- Combatting climate change through the use of cleaner, more energy-efficient technologies has high-level backers on both sides of the rich-poor divide that has threatened to derail global responses to climate change.

-- In May, an IPCC report said US$20 trillion must be spent by 2030 on upgrading the world's energy infrastructure to reduce emissions.

-- While many are keen to push for such transfers, Kyoto's subsidised technology transfers from developed to developing world, via the Clean Development Mechanism, have attracted criticism for focusing especially on a narrow range of lucrative projects in China, and elsewhere for delivering emissions cuts against rather hypothetical baselines.

* ROPING IN OTHER POLLUTION SOURCES:

-- Kyoto's first phase, which ends in 2012, focuses mainly on controlling pollution from industrial sources.

-- At Bali, British and European negotiators are expected to push for emissions from the global aviation and shipping industries to be included in a successor pact. They argue fast-rising emissions from these sectors could cancel out savings made elsewhere if they are not addressed.

Sources: Reuters

(Writing by Gill Murdoch, Singapore Editorial Reference Unit, editing by David Fogarty)

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Storms pound North America on both coasts

Channel NewsAsia 4 Dec 07;

MONTREAL - Major storms pounded North America's Atlantic and Pacific coasts Monday, grounding flights, forcing schools to close and creating dangerous road conditions that have left at least nine people dead.

Snow forced severe flight delays at major airports in Ottawa, Toronto and Montreal, while children stayed home as hundreds of schools closed in eastern Canada.

Nearly all flights were cancelled or delayed at the international airport of Montreal, where 24 centimetres (9.5 inches) fell overnight.

Up to 35 centimetres of snow was expected in parts of Canada's eastern provinces of Quebec and Ontario.

The storm lashed the US Midwest over the weekend before striking the northeastern United States and Canada.

Slick and icy roads caused traffic pileups and accidents across the United States, leaving four people dead in Michigan, three in Wisconsin, one in Indiana and another in New Jersey, according to local newspapers.

The Pacific northwest was also pounded by a major early winter storm.

The state of Washington took a beating from a wintry mix of powerful winds, heavy rain and massive snow fall, all resulting in mudslides, flooding and avalanches, the US National Weather Service said.

"You name it, we have it," NWS meteorologist Brad Colman told AFP.

Hurricane-force winds of up to 120 kilometres (75 miles) per hour, with gusts of 135 kph (85 mph), were recorded off the Washington coast, while at least one river flooded with more expected to overflow, Colman said.

Sixty centimetres to one meter (two to three feet) of snow fell in the Cascades mountain range, triggering avalanches that forced one major state road to shut down, he said.

Heavy rain also caused major traffic woes with water rising up to 1.2 meters (four feet). "It has been a traffic nightmare," Colman said, adding that no injuries were reported.

The NWS issued flood and heavy snow warnings for parts of Oregon and Washington state. Snow warnings were also in effect in Idaho and parts of Montana.

Powerful winds and heavy rains also pounded Canada's Pacific coast city of Vancouver, while Alberta province was hit by a polar cold.- AFP /ls

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Singapore Outward Bound School to expand training activities beyond Singapore

Channel NewsAsia 4 Dec 07;

SINGAPORE: The Outward Bound Singapore (OBS) plans to expand its training activities beyond Singapore to countries as far as Croatia.

It said this is one way to overcome the limited space available for training activities on Pulau Ubin.

This was revealed at the OBS' 40th anniversary celebrations attended by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Tuesday.

The OBS trains about 23,000 youths and adults every year. There are plans to include even more people. But the school has limited space to do this.

So it is trying to come up with an innovative approach. This includes training in waters off Pulau Tekong and the Southern Islands. As for overseas training, OBS is looking beyond Malaysia and Indonesia to countries such as China, India and even Croatia.

Nicholas Conceicao, director of Outward Bound Singapore, said: "We are exploring these three countries because, as you know, China and India are increasingly being countries which schools are looking at.

"China, especially, is partnering many schools in Singapore. Croatia is an interesting example because there are new schools being set up and OBS is actually playing a role in mentoring the set up of the new schools."

He also said that Croatia offers a good training area for OBS trainees because the climate there is very compatible with Singapore's.

As for its premises on Pulau Ubin, the OBS plans to develop more training activities in areas which were previously untouched, such as disused quarries. There, activities such as quarry jumps are being considered.

Prime Minister Lee believes the OBS can overcome the problem of limited space available for its training activities.

Mr Lee said: "These are all ingenuity challenges that we have to overcome and I think we will overcome, because we would like more of our students, more of our people to come and attend and have this experience which will leave them changed, not just physically fitter but mentally tougher and more cohesive as a team and, I think, with memories that will last them a lifetime."

That's what Mr Lee himself experienced 40 years ago. To relive those moments, he had the chance to sail on board a cutter, and got reunited with the instructor who trained him. He is Mr S Puhaindran, a former OBS instructor who was also at the anniversary celebrations.

Mr S Puhaindran said: "He (Mr Lee) mixed well with the other students. That made it easier for me. I was apprehensive because knowing his background, I thought it might be difficult for him to mix with people from the other sex... his own school, it was a boy's school."

On Tuesday, the OBS also unveiled its new logo, with colours that represent nature, life, adventure and courage. - CNA/ir


PM remembers the day he got lost in Punggol
That was in 1967 when he and other 15-year-olds were attending OBS
Peh Shing Huei, Straits Times 5 Dec 07;

WHEN Mr Lee Hsien Loong attended Outward Bound Singapore (OBS) in 1967, he and his mates had to dash through rural Punggol and navigate checkpoints without a compass.

In a place dotted with pig farms, unrecognisable from the new town it is today, the group of 15-year-olds failed in their task.

'We got lost,' he admitted self-deprecatingly yesterday to much laughter.

Returning to OBS as Prime Minister to celebrate its 40th anniversary, he reckoned that today's youth would probably have a far easier time.

'Today, I think it is very difficult to get lost in Punggol because if you get lost, you go to the light rail, you follow the tracks and it would take you to the next station,' he said.

Even on Pulau Ubin, where OBS is located and which is just a 15-minute boat ride from Punggol, it is quite difficult to get lost these days.

'It is quite a crowded place. You have tarmac roads...you have road signs. It's not as much of wilderness as we would like it to be,' he said.

'But with some ingenuity and some effort, we can make the best of what we have.'

It is what OBS is already doing - taking some of its annual intake of 23,000 participants beyond its Ubin home ground.

A programme to paddle to Batam and back will kick off next year.

More exciting challenges are also lined up for participants in China's scenic Guilin area, the Himalayas, and even in Croatia.

OBS will also have more activities in other parts of Singapore, making use of nature reserves and also of Pulau Tekong and the Southern Islands.

Of course, it also wants a slice of the new Punggol 21-plus, aiming to 'chope' or reserve, as Mr Lee revealed, some space at Punggol Point Jetty when the new town is rejuvenated as a coastal suburb.

This would beef up OBS' presence on mainland Singapore.

And it will also allow more Singaporeans to try the climbing, jumping and even 'flying' - on the Flying Fox apparatus, of course - that the OBS is famous for.

'We would like more of our students, more of our people to come and have this experience which would leave them changed - not just physically fitter but mentally tougher and more cohesive as a team and with memories which would last them a lifetime,' Mr Lee said after a two-hour tour, during which primary school pupils greeted him with the Mexican, or perhaps in this instance, the Pulau Ubin Wave.

Mr Lee's 17-day course four decades ago certainly left an impression on him.

His then-OBS instructor, Mr S. Puhaindran, now 71, remembers him as a boy who didn't give trouble.

'He mixed very easily with the other people. He did everything that everyone else did and never complained. After a while, the other students all forgot that he was Lee Kuan Yew's son,' said the veteran Marine Parade grassroots leader.

As for the little misadventure in Punggol, he said: 'They were quite happy and they laughed it off.'

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Bali climate meeting must show results: Pacific islands

Kyoko Hasegawa, Yahoo News 4 Dec 07;

"It takes a lot of effort to generate political will and financial commitment for something that doesn't directly affect us"

Leaders of small Pacific island states threatened by rising sea levels on Tuesday called for action rather than empty rhetoric at a key climate change conference underway in Bali.

Young Vivian, prime minister of the tiny Pacific state of Niue, said he feared the high-profile meeting in Bali would be "talk, talk, talk and meeting, meeting and meeting."

"I don't know, maybe next year there'll be another disaster and they may still be talking," Vivian told a first-of-a-kind Asian "water summit" in the southern Japanese town of Beppu.

"What is happening now is reported in newspapers, and it is in front of us now. On a daily basis, in many places there will be more natural disasters -- storms, tsunamis, typhoons -- and all sorts of problems," he said.

The Bali conference is aimed at working out a framework to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, the landmark treaty on reducing greenhouse gas emissions that expires in 2012.

Vivian, speaking to AFP after his address, praised Australia's new Prime Minister Kevin Rudd for ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, a move that leaves the United States as the only industrial power to snub the treaty.

"I think they (rich countries) know what we need. I think they know what they should do to reduce the emissions," he said.

"Australia has done that now. They ratified the protocol," he said.

Kiribati President Anote Tong showed the conference video footage of what he called the consequences of rising water levels for his island nation, including intensifying floods and storms and greater salt levels in the groundwater.

He said 25 to 50 percent of urban areas in a southern region of his country was under threat from rising sea levels, while 50 to 80 percent of villages risked being submerged in the same region.

"This is typical of what's happening now," he warned.

An official from Tuvalu called for technological help to secure safer water and better sanitation, while Fiji's finance minister asked for more loans to help deal with the effects of rising water levels.

"I appeal particularly to financing institutions to consider soft-loan options for small island nations with vulnerable economies," Fijian Finance Minister Mahendra Chaudhry said.

"There are other competing demands on government financing which come from the social sector," he said.

Asia-Pacific leaders agreed at the end of the two-day meeting to "exhort the Bali Conference to take into account" problems such as the melting of snowcaps and glaciers in the Himalayas and rising sea levels, a statement said.

Prince Willem Alexander of The Netherlands, who chairs the UN International Year of Sanitation next year, called on policymakers to show more commitment.

"Everyone has a right to sanitation," the heir to the Dutch throne said.

"Our main dilemma is that we, you and I, policymakers and opinion formers, are not confronted with the impact of inadequate sanitation," he said.

"Consequently it takes a lot of effort to generate political will and financial commitment for something that doesn't directly affect us," he said.

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EU has no idea how much fish it catches: watchdog

Reuters 4 Dec 07;

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union has no real idea of how many fish its national fleets catch each year and is failing to clamp down hard on vessels that exceed national quotas, the EU financial watchdog said on Tuesday.

The Court of Auditors said unreliable data on catches, weak inspections with no proper deterrent, as well as general fleet overcapacity were threatening fish stocks. For many species including cod, stocks had been hard hit by years of heavy exploitation.

"Catch data are neither complete nor reliable and the real level of catches is thus unknown," an ECA report said.

It criticized EU governments and the European Commission, the bloc's executive arm, for not doing enough to enforce the rules and stop the overfishing -- a phenomenon that international scientists have warned the EU about for years.

"If this situation continues, it will bring grave consequences not only for the natural resource, but also for the future of the fishing industry and the areas associated with it," said the analysis of the EU's six major fishing countries: Britain, Denmark, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands.

"If the political authorities want (EU policy) to achieve its objective of sustainable exploitation of the fisheries resources, the present control, inspection and sanction systems must be strengthened considerably," it said.

More than 4.4 million tonnes of fish and crustaceans are landed in EU ports every year, worth some 6.1 billion euros ($9 billion).

For more than 20 years, EU ministers have agreed annual fishing quotas by species, fishing area and country. Those volumes are based on a total allowable catch, or TAC, that is then sub-divided into quotas allocated to each EU member state.

Catch volumes are calculated on information provided by authorities in each country. Under EU law, a country may be fined if its vessels break the rules -- for example, if they use small-mesh nets to trap extra fish, or trawl in closed seasons.

But inspections and follow-up legal action were inadequate to prevent abuses, while levels of fines were limited, the report said. Countries were also unable to guarantee catch data and the Commission could not identify the errors properly.

The Commission said reporting accurate data on catches was the responsibility of the national authority concerned.

"While it continues to look for ways in which it can improve its own data processing systems, the Commission ... considers that the primary responsibility for providing reliable data rests with the member states," it said in a statement.

Equipping EU-flagged trawlers with far more fish capacity than they needed, despite Commission efforts to curb this, made matters worse, it said.

"Overcapacity affects the profitability of the fishing industry and, in a context of decreasing authorized catches, is an incitement to non-observance of these restrictions and affects the quality of the data forwarded," it said.

(Reporting by Jeremy Smith; Editing by Caroline Drees)

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"Out of Balance" climate film targets ExxonMobil

Deborah Zabarenko, Reuters 4 Dec 07;

"When I started to find out who it was that was really fostering the confusion around the issue ... I just thought it was outrageous that here's this company that basically has been portraying this major debate among climate scientists ... when largely the debate was over a long time ago, back in the 90s."

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Environmentalists love taking aim at ExxonMobil Corp., which many see as the biggest corporate culprit in human-fueled climate change. A documentary on global warming takes this to a new level: buy the $24.99 DVD online, and the film's distributor will donate $10 to victims of the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill.

"Hey, $10 might not be the $339 billion in revenue that ExxonMobil's going to generate ... this year, but it's what we can do," said Halfdan Hussey, executive director of Cinequest, which is distributing the film "Out of Balance." "We might be able to write a $100,000 check."

The donations would go to the Bidarki Youth Center in Cordova, Alaska, on Prince William Sound, where the tanker Exxon Valdez ran aground in March 1989, spilling 11 million gallons (50 million liters) of crude oil along 1,200 miles

of Alaskan coastline.

The Valdez spill was what originally got filmmaker Tom Jackson interested in ExxonMobil and its influence.

"I was in college then and pretty upset by that whole thing ... and the way it was handled, or perhaps one would say, mishandled," Jackson said by phone from Portsmouth, New Hampshire. He stopped buying Exxon gas and noticed a boycott of the company's credit cards, but did not then associate the company with the growing issue of global warming.

That came much later, after Hurricane Katrina ravaged the U.S. Gulf Coast and some scientists linked more severe storms with climate change. Scenes of the ravaged Louisiana coastline open the film.

"I myself took a while to come around to the whole climate change issue, and bought the whole 'the jury is still out' (argument)," Jackson said. But then he heard reports that ExxonMobil has funded those skeptical of the reality of global warming.

"FOSTERING THE CONFUSION" ON CLIMATE CHANGE

"When I started to find out who it was that was really fostering the confusion around the issue ... I just thought it was outrageous that here's this company that basically has been portraying this major debate among climate scientists ... when largely the debate was over a long time ago, back in the 90s."

Jackson, who made "Out of Balance" for about $50,000, said the connection between the Valdez spill and ExxonMobil's stance on global warming was former chief executive Lee Raymond, who headed the corporation's cleanup operations in Alaska in 1989. Jackson and others quoted in the film dismissed this operation as a "PR charade" aimed more at looking busy than fixing the problem.

ExxonMobil has weathered numerous accusations of funding what critics call "junk science" on climate change by saying that the corporation funds a wide range of organizations and does not dictate what they produce.

Asked specifically about the accusations in "Out of Balance," ExxonMobil spokesman Gantt Walton said by e-mail, "This film was produced and originally aired a year ago and the recycling of discredited conspiracy theories diverts attention from the real challenge at hand: how to provide the energy needed to sustain and improve global living standards while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions."

ExxonMobil, unlike other oil companies including BP and Chevron, has not been very vocal in opposing climate-warming emissions. But it did run double-page spreads in The Washington Post and The New York Times to promote its new technology that could make the batteries in hybrid vehicles more efficient.

The ads ran on December 3, the opening day of an international conference in Bali, Indonesia, aimed at figuring out how to cut greenhouse emissions after the current Kyoto Protocol runs out in 2012.

The Exxon Valdez case is still winding its way through the legal system. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear the company's appeal to overturn a $2.5 billion punitive damage award to about 32,000 commercial fishermen, Alaska natives, property owners and others affected by the worst U.S. tanker spill.

Exxon's Walton called the spill "a tragic accident," but said the company has paid $3.5 billion in cleanup and other costs and believes that no punitive damage payment is warranted.

(Editing by Eric Walsh)

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Bali talks won't agree carbon capture: U.N. official

Reuters 4 Dec 07;

"I think more pilot projects have to be done, more analytical work has to be done really to convince the skeptics that this is a technology that can be safely applied."

NUSA DUA, Indonesia (Reuters) - Current talks in Bali on climate change will not decide to include support for the burying of greenhouse gases as part of a successor deal to the Kyoto Protocol, the U.N.'s top climate official said.

But the talks may put the so-far unproven technology, carbon capture and storage, on the agenda for future backing, Yvo de Boer told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday.

About 190 countries are meeting in Bali, Indonesia, aiming to launch two years of talks to agree a new global climate change pact to succeed the Kyoto Protocol after 2012.

"I think there's still quite a lot of concern out there about carbon capture and storage," said de Boer.

"I think more pilot projects have to be done, more analytical work has to be done really to convince the skeptics that this is a technology that can be safely applied."

"It (the Bali talks) might put CCS on the agenda as one technology to be considered as part of a mitigation solution."

Carbon capture technology is widely believed to be a crucial weapon without which emissions of the commonest man-made greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2), may pass dangerous limits.

The technology is supposed to trap emissions from coal-fired power plants, which are proliferating globally, and pump the gas underground. But there is no such commercial-scale power plant project yet anywhere.

That is because of the extra expense to install CCS technology, estimated at some $1 billion per plant.

One idea is that, under a new global climate deal, rich countries could meet their emissions limits by funding carbon capture projects in developing nations, earning carbon offsets in return.

Because no new commercial-scale CCS projects are expected to be operational for several years, the technology is only relevant to a Kyoto successor deal.

(Reporting by Gerard Wynn and Alister Doyle, Editing by Anthony Barker)

Carbon capture not on table at UN climate talks: UN official
Yahoo News 6 Dec 07;

An embryonic but much-hailed technology to bury polluting carbon dioxide is unlikely to form part of early negotiations for a new global warming pact, a top UN official said Wednesday.

Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said delegates on Indonesia's Bali had discussed carbon capture and storage with enthusiasm.

But he said more research was needed on the still-experimental technology, which some experts say would cut about 35 percent of the carbon dioxide emissions from steel mills, cement plants and power plants.

"I do not expect a decision at this conference on the inclusion of carbon capture and storage," he told reporters on the third day of the conference.

"I think further analytical work has to be done."

The technology would capture carbon dioxide released by power plants or other factories, transport it and bury it underground -- either in old oil fields or coal mines, or even at the bottom of the ocean.

The theory goes that once the gas is buried, it would no longer contribute to global warming, and environmental groups have called for more investment and research into carbon capture and storage.

Europe and the United States are already experimenting with the technology, but it is still in the development stage and requires massive investment to make it commercially viable.

OPEC leaders said last month that they were planning to make carbon capture and storage the centrepiece of their newfound green agenda by urging greater use of the emerging technique to curb carbon emissions.

Nearly 190 countries have gathered at the UNFCCC meeting in Bali, which aims to see them agree to negotiate a new regime to combat climate change when the current phase of the Kyoto Protocol ends in 2012.

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Poor nations seen seeking to "climate proof" economies

Alister Doyle, Reuters 4 Dec 07;

NUSA DUA, Indonesia (Reuters) - Developing nations from Sudan to Uruguay are finding new ways to "climate proof" their economies from threats ranging from desertification to storms, a U.N.-backed study said on Tuesday.

Schemes to mute the impact of climate change such as wider use of drought-resistant crops, irrigation or better forecasting of storm surges could show how to help protect hundreds of millions of people this century, it said.

Achim Steiner, the head of the U.N. Environment Program (UNEP), said that U.N.-led climate efforts had so far focused most on ways to cut greenhouse gas emissions, rather than helping people adapt to effects such as erosion or rising seas.

"One of the big missing links has been adaptation," he said of the report issued at 190-nation climate talks in Bali, Indonesia. About 350 experts made 24 studies around the world in a $9 million assessment of ways to adapt to a warmer world.

Steiner said the report gave "a foundation upon which adaptation can become part of country development plans and built into international assistance". Adaptation is likely to cost billions of dollars in coming years.

In the Bara province of Sudan, for instance, a study showed that a shift to small-scale irrigated vegetable gardens and efforts to stabilize sand dunes had helped raise food output.

For Uruguay and Argentina, the report urged "a review of coastal and city defenses and of early-warning systems and flood response strategies" along the River Plate.

A study showed the population at risk from floods and storm surges along the delta could triple to 1.7 million by 2070. Property losses could range from $5 billion to $15 billion from 2050 to 2100, assuming one storm surge into Buenos Aires.

RAINFALL

In Gambia, a projected decline in rainfall this century is likely to cut yields of millet, a stable crop. The study showed that new varieties of millet and more use of fertilizer were the most cost-effective measures, rather than extra irrigation.

It also said there were risks of a spread of dengue fever in the Caribbean, with a 2 Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) temperature rise likely to triple the number of cases by 2080.

Better education about the risks -- especially that dengue-carrying mosquitoes often bred in water storage drums commonly found outside homes -- could help curb cases.

Researchers said that many of the recommendations would apply, even without climate change blamed on emissions from burning fossil fuels. But they said countries had to take a harder look at threats from a changing climate.

"Adaptation is not an option -- it's essential," said Neil Leary of the International START Secretariat in Washington who led the studies.

The December 3-14 Bali talks are to discuss ways to manage a new "adaptation fund" which has an initial sum of just $36 million but could provide up to $1.6 billion in the period to 2012.

(Editing by David Fogarty)

Read more!

150 million to face flood risk by 2070

Simon Challis, Reuters 4 Dec 07;

Even being optimistic that flood protection levels will be high everywhere in the future, the large population and asset exposure is likely to translate into regular city-scale disasters across the globe.

LONDON (Reuters) - As many as 150 million people in the world's big coastal cities are likely to be at risk from flooding by the 2070s, more than three times as many as now, according to a report released on Tuesday.

Climate change, population growth and urban development will mean the number at risk will rise from the current 40 million while total property and infrastructure exposure is forecast to rise to $35 trillion -- 9 percent of projected global GDP.

The report from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, put together by disaster modeling firm Risk Management Solutions and leading scientists, is the first part of the largest ever study on urban coastal flood exposure.

The report analyzed the vulnerability now and in the future of 130 port cities to a major flood, on a scale likely to occur once in 100 years.

Miami in Florida will remain the city with the highest value of property and infrastructure assets exposed to coastal flooding caused by storm surge and damage from high winds, the report said.

The city has exposed assets of $400 billion today. Those are projected to rise in value to over $3.5 trillion by 2070.

But with rapid economic development in Asia, Guangzhou in China will be the second most exposed city in terms of assets in 2070, followed by New York, Kolkata, Shanghai, Mumbai, Tianjin, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Bangkok, the report said.

GROWTH AND GROWING RISK

Population growth and urban development in coastal cities will increase the exposure, exacerbated by the effects of climate change and subsidence, the report said.

Scientists believe global warming will cause sea levels to rise and bring more frequent and severe storms and other natural disasters.

"This report raises crucial policy considerations, and highlights the urgency for climate change mitigation and risk-informed adaptation strategies at a city level," said Jan Corfee-Morlot, the OECD's senior policy advisor on climate change.

Policies to mitigate climate change will bring "precious time" for exposed cities to implement strategies to adapt to and protect themselves from the higher risk of flooding, said Corfee-Morlot.

Projects to protect cities from flooding, such as the Thames Barrier built to protect central London from a major flood, typically take up to 30 years, said the report.

Policymakers from around the world are meeting this week in Bali to try to hammer out a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol to cut man-made emissions of carbon dioxide that are believed to lead to global warming.

Insurers, who end up paying a large part of the bill from any damage caused by climate change, should encourage policyholders to adopt methods to adapt to effects of global warming, the report said.

(Editing by Matthew Tostevin)


City-scale flooding disasters predicted by 2070
Paul Eccleston, Telegraph 4 Dec 07;

Millions more people across the world are going to be at risk from flooding in the future because of climate change and population increases.

And as many as 150m people in the world's major cities - more than three times the 40m currently - will have to rely on flood defences for protection by 2070, according to a major new study.

But even then city-scale disasters are likely to become regular events across the world.

The gloomy forecasts come from the first stage of the largest study on urban coastal flood exposure ever undertaken.

More than 130 key port cities worldwide were analysed to investigate the likely impact of climate change alongside subsidence, population growth, and urban economic development.

The study focused on the exposure of people and property and infrastructure to a 1-in-100 year flood event now and in the future. The cities most exposed to coastal flooding today and in the future were ranked into a league table.

London was ranked 41 in a list for population exposed in 2070 and 27th for property and infrastructure assets exposed.
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The study found nine of the 10 cities with the highest population at risk will be in Asia. Calcutta was ranked highest, with 14m people exposed by the 2070s.

Property and infrastructure at risk worth $3 trillion today, 5 per cent of current global GDP, will become $35 trillion by the 2070s - 9 per cent of the projected global GDP.

Miami will have the highest exposure with assets worth $3.5 trillion at risk followed by Guangzhou in China, with $3.3 trillion and New York, with $2.1 trillion.

The study was carried out by the Organisation for Economic and Co-operation Development (OECD) and jointly prepared by Risk Management Solutions (RMS) and academics representing the University of Southampton, the Tyndall Centre, Météo-France and the Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED).

The study revealed that around half of the total population exposed to coastal flooding caused by storm surge and damage from high winds is contained in just 10 cities split between developed and developing countries with Mumbai (Bombay) being the most threatened by coastal flood.

The risk will increase as the century progresses particularly in the developing countries and by 2070 nine of the 10 cities most at risk will be in Asia.

Calcutta will be the most vulnerable, with the exposed population expected to increase over seven times to more than 14m million people, largely driven by rapid population growth in the city.

Over the coming decades, the unprecedented growth and development of the Asian mega-cities will be a key factor in driving the increase in coastal flood risk globally. In terms of population exposure, Calcutta will be closely followed by Mumbai, Dhaka, Guangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, Shanghai, Bangkok and Rangoon. Miami is in ninth place and would be the only top 10 city situated in a currently developed country, while Hai Phong (Vietnam) is ranked tenth.

The cities with the highest value of property and infrastructure assets exposed to coastal flooding today are primarily in developed countries.

The top ten cities, which contain 60 per cent of the total exposure, are from only three wealthy countries, America, Japan, and The Netherlands, with Miami ranked top.

But the rapid economic expansion expected in developing nations means that in future the highest exposure will become more concentrated in Asian cities, with eight of the top 10 in this region. Guangzhou is the second most exposed city in terms of assets, followed by New York, Kolkata, Shanghai, Mumbai, Tianjin (China), Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Bangkok.

Dr Celine Herweijer, principal scientist of future climate at RMS, said: "Population growth and development are clearly key drivers of the increase in exposure, particularly in Asia, but climate change and subsidence acutely magnify the problem.

"These findings deliver a clear message to businesses that invest, or are planning to invest, in highly exposed cities to start implementing pro-active risk management strategies that consider how risks will evolve over time,"

"For the insurance industry, there is both an opportunity and a necessity to promote adaptation. Crucially, rising hazard does not have to translate into increased risk if the right measures are taken."

Prof Robert Nicholls, IPCC author and director of research at the University of Southampton, said: "The concentration of flood exposure in rapidly developing cities urgently underscores the need to integrate climate change implications into both national coastal flood risk management and urban development strategies.

"Given the aggregation of people and assets in port cities and their importance to global trade, failure to develop effective adaptation strategies would inevitably have not just local, but international economic consequences."

Stéphane Hallegatte, economist at Météo-France and CIRED, said: "Even being optimistic that flood protection levels will be high everywhere in the future, the large population and asset exposure is likely to translate into regular city-scale disasters across the globe.

"Adaptation strategies need to be underpinned by solid governance, to help key cities understand and proactively manage current and future flood risk."

Asia's delta cities top flooding risk list
Straits Times 5 Dec 07;

Out of 10 cities expected to be most exposed to massive storm floods in 2070, nine are in Asia

PARIS - ASIA'S massive delta cities have the most to fear from catastrophic storm floods driven by climate change, according to a report published here yesterday.

Of 136 port cities assessed around the world for their exposure to once-in-a-century coastal flooding, 38 per cent are in Asia and 27 per cent are located in deltas, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said in the report.

Publication of the report coincided with the 11-day United Nations conference in Bali, Indonesia, aimed at shaping a long-term response to the climate peril.

Today, about 40 million people around the world are exposed to coastal flooding in large port cities, according to the report.

The top 10 cities most at risk, in terms of exposed population, are Mumbai, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Miami, Ho Chi Minh City, Kolkata, Greater New York, Osaka-Kobe, Alexandria and New Orleans.

The total value of assets exposed in the 136 port cities analysed was US$3 trillion (S$4.3 trillion) - or around 5 per cent of the global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2005, it said.

Miami, Greater New York, New Orleans, Osaka-Kobe, Tokyo, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Nagoya, and Tampa-St Petersburg and Virginia Beach, in the US states of Florida and Virginia respectively, are the most valuable pieces of real estate at risk.

'Climate change is already happening, and concerted action is needed now to prevent its worst impacts,' OECD secretary-general Angel Gurria said at the meeting in Bali, which started on Monday and will run until Dec 14.

'A range of economic policy options is available, and political commitment is needed to implement them,' he said.

The report was authored by OECD experts working with scientists from Britain's University of Southampton, US company Risk Management Solutions and France's Meteo-France and Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research.

They estimated that by the 2070s, the total population exposed could more than triple, to around 150 million people.

Of the 'Top 10' coastal cities expected to be most exposed in 2070, nine are in Asia.

The total value of assets exposed by the 136 cities in the 2070s was put at US$35 trillion, or 9 per cent of projected global annual GDP.

Ranked according to assets exposed to flooding, the 2070 list is headed by Miami, Guangzhou, Greater New York, Kolkata, Shanghai, Mumbai, Tianjin (China), Tokyo, Hong Kong and Bangkok.

The assessment projected the damage that would be caused by an extreme but very rare weather event - a combination of storm surge and high winds that, in purely statistical terms, occurs once a century.

The exposure rises in the 2070s because of coastal subsidence and further population growth in these port cities, and the risk increases due to climate change, which will raise sea levels and likely make storms more powerful.

In its estimate, the OECD assumed that sea levels would rise 0.5m as a result of thermal expansion as well as from melting ice sheets.

In the first volume of a triple report on global warming, published in February, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said sea levels would climb between 18cm and 59cm by 2100.

But in a summary of the overall report, issued in Valencia, Spain, last month, it said it could no longer put an upper limit on this projection because of uncertainties about ice sheet loss.

The OECD report did not factor in the effectiveness of flood defences in its calculations, saying that exposure to a flood 'does not necessarily translate into impact'.

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

Read more!

Recycling bins take on fancier shapes

Channel NewsAsia 4 Dec 07;

SINGAPORE: Recyling bins could soon take on fancier shapes if the winners of a design competition have their way.

They aim to use their designs to spur companies to get involved in recycling and to spark an interest in people to recycle more.

Bassam Jabry, Chemistry, winner of 10 TouchPoints Design Competition, said: "In Singapore, everybody is very used to not littering. So that's brilliant. We throw away stuff but that in itself has become a problem.

"We are so good at throwing away things that we need to shift that habit a little bit. Certain things like bottles or cans or papers can be recycled very well."

The prototype that won the 10 TouchPoints Design Competition – organised by the DesignSingapore Council a few months ago – costs a few thousand dollars to produce.

It is now on display outside the National Library at Victoria Street, along with winning designs from other categories.

Visitors have written comments about the exhibits in a booklet – one has suggested making a recycling bin for clothes. Another brought up the point that recycling bins should be placed near homes and in HDB estates.

More recycling bins for paper, bottles and drink cans have just been put outside Ngee Ann City. These bins could be fancier if funding for them gets the green light.- CNA/so

Read more!

Can We Save the World by 2015?

Bryan Walsh, Time 1 Dec 07;

The whole process can seem frustratingly slow, considering how dire the threat of climate change is — as if we were convening a town hall meeting to decide to put out a fire that is already raging.

If international leaders were as united as the scientific community on climate change, warming might be a thing of the past.

This year the UN's Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a series of reports that laid to rest any doubts that global warming is real — and outlined the frightening consequences of continued inaction. At the release of the IPCC's final summary last month, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon — who has made climate change a top priority of his administration — laid out the threat in stark terms. "The world's scientists have spoken clearly, and with one voice," he said. "I expect the world's policymakers to act the same."

Unfortunately, the global political community is a long way from speaking with one voice on anything, and climate change is no exception.

We'll know for sure next week, when environment and energy ministers from around the world meet on the Indonesian island of Bali, for the UN's climate change conference.

The summit has been held nearly every year since 1992, when the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) — the document that has since guided international work on global warming — was hammered out.

It was at the 1997 conference, held in Japan, that the Kyoto Protocol was passed, but since then, there's been little progress, thanks in no small part to President George W. Bush's determined foot dragging on climate change.

But with the Kyoto set to go into effect in 2008, this year's talks in Bali will be the most important international environmental negotiations in over a decade. The Kyoto Protocol — which requires developed nations who have ratified the deal to cut their greenhouse gas emissions by an average of about 5% below 1990 levels by 2012 — expires in just five years.

Given how long international treaties take to be developed and ratified, the world needs to begin immediately at Bali the process of preparing a successor to Kyoto to be ready by the end of 2012 — otherwise, we'll be faced with a global vacuum at the very moment when greenhouse emissions must begin falling in order to avoid dangerous climate change.

"It's really critical to get negotiations formally started," says David Doniger, the policy director of the Natural Resource Defense Council's climate center. "We're almost at the point of no return. If we don't turn these emission trends down soon, we're cooked."

The good news is that the White House is seemingly the only place green hasn't gone mainstream. Just last week, 150 top global corporations — including General Electric, Johnson & Johnson and Shell — endorsed a petition calling for mandatory cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, a business position unthinkable just a year ago.

Australia — a Kyoto holdout, like the U.S. — just elected a new Prime Minister with a strong environmental record who says he'll ratify the Protocol.

States and cities in the U.S. have taken their own steps on climate change in the absence of action from the White House, and Congress is finally ready to step in; representatives just hammered out the details of a bill raising automobile fuel economy standards to 35 mpg.

"The tenor seems to be different this time," says Jennifer Haverkamp, international counsel for Environmental Defense. "There is a building sense that enough time has been wasted and it is time to act."

One major dispute could trip up progress at Bali, however. Under Kyoto, only developed countries were required to make mandatory cuts in their carbon emissions; developing nations like China and India had no such demands.

The U.S. has long maintained that it won't sign onto a new deal unless the developing countries are included in a more substantive way — a position unlikely to change even when the occupant of the White House does.

Beijing and New Delhi both argue that the vast majority of historical carbon emissions came from the developed nations (CO2 stays in the air for up to 200 years), so action should come from the rich first — a contention arguably supported by the UNFCCC itself, which calls for "common but differentiated responsibilities" between nations on climate change.

But the reality is that the bulk of future CO2 emissions will come from rapidly growing developing nations, and a climate deal that gave them a free pass would be useless.

"We need a process that opens the door for negotiations for all economies," says Eileen Claussen, president of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.

None of this will actually be decided at Bali. Despite the fact that we are rapidly running out of time to cap carbon emissions — the head of the IPCC has said the world has until 2015 at the latest — Bali is just the beginning of the beginning, not the end.

As Claussen points out, a successful summit would be one that, counterintuitively, leaves much undecided — while attaching a firm deadline to the end of negotiations, with 2010 as the latest possible date.

With the Bush Administration nearing lame duck status, a 2010 deadline would give a new U.S. Administration time — though not much time — to enter the process and hopefully take a leading position.

That extra time might also allow China or India to soften their negotiating tactics, and perhaps accept lesser limitations, such as mandatory targets in energy efficiency or renewable power use.

The best contribution President Bush can make for the Bali process is to continue doing what he has done best on climate change: nothing.

The whole process can seem frustratingly slow, considering how dire the threat of climate change is — as if we were convening a town hall meeting to decide to put out a fire that is already raging.

"Getting 185 countries around a negotiating table is a difficult way to run the world," says Andrew Deutz, who heads the Nature Conservancy's International Institutions and Agreements team.

"But the advantage of the UN process is that it's about the process. It can continue to evolve."

That's already begun to happen in recent years, as consensus on global warming has grown in every corner of the world, as businesses have turned to alternative power and governments have begun to set their own caps on carbon.

But we're in a race and we're already behind. If we can't get off to a good start at Bali, we may never catch up.

Read more!

Warming, biofuels to boost food prices for years

Reuters 3 Dec 07;

BEIJING (Reuters) - Food prices may climb for years because of expansion of farming for fuel, climate changes, and demand from richer consumers in fast-growing developing nations, a report from a top food research group said on Tuesday.

Biofuel expansions alone could push maize prices up over two-thirds by 2020 and increase oilseed costs by nearly half, with subsidies for the industry forming an implicit tax on the poor, the International Food Policy Research Institute said.

"The days of falling food prices may be over," said Joachim von Braun, lead author of the "World Food Situation" report and director general of the institute.

"Surging demand for food, feed and fuel have recently led to drastic price increases ... climate change will also have a negative impact on food production," he added.

Growing financial investor interest in commodity markets as prices climb is fuelling price volatility, and world cereal and energy prices are increasingly closely linked.

With oil prices hovering around $90 a barrel, this is bad news for the poor, who have already suffered "quite dramatic" impacts from a tripling in wheat prices and near-doubling in rice prices since 2000, the report said.

Global cereal stocks, a key buffer used to fight famines around the world, have sunk to their lowest level since the 1980s.

More investment in agricultural technology, a stronger social welfare net with particular support for children, an end to trade barriers and improved infrastructure and finance opportunities in less-developed countries, could all help improve food security.

Although increased trade, a key demand of many developing world nations in global trade talks, would bring economic gains, in many cases it would not significantly reduce poverty, the report added.

WARMING, BIOFUELS LOOM

Global warming could cut worldwide income from agriculture 16 percent by 2020, despite the potential for increased yields in some colder areas and the fertilizing impact on plants of having higher carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere.

"With the increased risk of droughts and floods due to rising temperatures, crop-yield losses are imminent," the report said.

It warned that Africa would be hit particularly hard by changes in weather patterns, in which scientist say man-made gasses pumped into the atmosphere are an important factor.

"When taking into account the effects of climate change, the number of undernourished people in Sub-Saharan Africa may triple between 1990 and 2080," the report said.

Biofuels also threaten nutrition for the poor. Under current investment plans, and assuming expansion in nations with high-potential but without detailed plans, maize prices would rise a quarter by the end of the next decade.

Under a more dramatic expansion, prices could climb up to 72 percent for maize and 44 percent for oilseeds, the report said.

Even when next-generation biofuels that use feedstocks such as wood and straw become commercially viable, competition for resources from water to investment capital may continue.

Global food demand is shifting towards higher-value vegetables, diary, fruits and meat as a result of rapid economic growth in developing countries including China and India.

But it can be difficult for smaller farmers to take advantage of the trend because of large retailers' growing grip on the market and their high safety, quality and other requirements.

(Reporting by Emma Graham-Harrison, editing by Ken Wills and Jerry Norton)

World farm output to drop due to global warming: experts
Channel NewsAsia 4 Dec 07;

BEIJING - Global warming is likely to cause a significant decline in world agricultural output, with poor countries in Africa set to be hurt the most, a group of farm experts said Tuesday.

As a result, policymakers must take into account food issues when dealing with climate change, a report by the International Food Policy Research Institute said.

"World agricultural output is projected to decrease significantly due to global warming, and the impact on developing countries will be much more severe than industrialised nations," said the report, released in Beijing.

"Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its high proportion of low-input, rain-fed agriculture, compared with Asia or Latin America."

In the report, the group urged policymakers to take agriculture and food issues into account when developing national and international climate change agendas.

The report, titled "The World Food Situation," was released at an international conference aimed at addressing a global rise in food demand.

While hundreds of millions have emerged from poverty through better agricultural techniques, rising standards of living mean that more grain is being used to produce high value products like meat and diary products, the report said.

This in turn makes grain prices rise as demand grows, making it harder for poorer people in the developing world to fulfil their daily food needs.

Due to rising oil costs, the production of biofuels as an alternative energy source was also adding to dramatic changes in the world food situation, which "will adversely affect poor people in developing countries," the report said.

The group called on developed nations to lower trade barriers on farm products and reduce biofuel production, while developing nations needed to invest more in their farming infrastructure.

"Surging demand for feed, food and fuel has recently led to drastic price increases, which are not likely to fall in the foreseeable future," said Joachim von Braun, lead author of the report.

"The days of falling food prices may be over." - AFP/ir


Food prices 'will continue to go up'
Straits Times 5 Dec 07;
Global warming, use of land for bio-fuels and other trends threaten agricultural production, says new report

BEIJING - CONSUMERS worried about rising food prices have more reasons to fret - a new report shows that the worldwide trend is likely to continue for some time.

The reasons: Climate change, falling crop yields and growing demand from rapidly developing countries such as India and China.

The report by the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute was released yesterday at an international conference here aimed at addressing a global rise in food demand.

People should get used to paying more for their food for the foreseeable future, the report noted.

Professor Joachim von Braun, director of the research group and the report's lead author, noted that food prices had been dropping since scientists began developing high-yield plant varieties decades ago.

But he told reporters yesterday: 'The days of falling food prices may be over. The last time the world experienced such food price increases was in 1973 to 1974...but today, the situation is completely different.

'For one, the climate risk and climate change situation has increased, the climate vulnerability has increased.'

The institute also said in its report - The World Food Situation - that hunger and malnutrition could rise as poor agricultural communities most sensitive to the environment are hurt.

And it predicted that the world's agricultural production will decrease by 16 per cent by 2020 because of global warming, with land used for certain crops shrinking.

'With the increased risk of droughts and floods due to rising temperatures, crop-yield losses are imminent,' it said.

Prof von Braun said that global cereal stocks, a key buffer used to fight famines around the world, have already sunk to their lowest level since the 1980s.

'The world eats more than it produces currently, and over the past five or six years, that is reflected in the decline in stocks and storage levels,' he said.

'That cannot go on, and exhaustion of stocks will be reached soon.'

And while hundreds of millions of people have emerged from poverty through better agricultural techniques, rising standards of living mean that more grain is being used to produce high-value food such as meat and dairy products, the report said.

This, in turn, causes grain prices to rise as demand grows, making it harder for poorer people in the developing world to fulfil their daily food needs.

The rising cost of oil is also contributing to the problem, as using crops to produce bio-fuels will further reduce the amount of available food and increase prices, the report said.

Bio-fuel expansion alone could push maize prices up by more than two-thirds by 2020, and increase oilseed costs by nearly half, with subsidies for the industry effectively constituting a tax on the poor, it said.

And it warned that, overall: 'The impact on developing countries will be much more severe than on industrialised nations.

'Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its high proportion of low-input, rain-fed agriculture.'

Among the solutions proposed by the institute are more investment in agricultural technology and a stronger social welfare net, with particular support for children, and reduced production of bio-fuels.

It also proposed an end to trade barriers on food, especially in developing countries, so small-time farmers can earn more money.

'A world facing increased food scarcity needs to trade more, not less,' it said.

ASSOCIATED PRESS, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, REUTERS

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