China orders governments to go green: state media

Yahoo News 14 Apr 09;

BEIJING (AFP) – Local governments in China have been ordered to buy more energy efficient products as part of the national drive to curb pollution and combat global warming, state press reported on Tuesday.

China's State Council, or cabinet, issued a statement Monday calling for all local governments to place a higher priority on eco-friendly products in their public purchases, the China Daily reported.

Governments will be required to strictly follow a compulsory green procurement list, which was published in 2007 and includes nine types of items such as air conditioners and computers, it said.

Previously agencies could shop around for other goods if they could justify buying them on cost and energy saving grounds, the report added.

China's public authorities are influential consumers.

In 2005, governments around China had an annual budget of 292.8 billion yuan (42.9 billion dollars), or 1.6 percent of the country's overall economy that year, the newspaper said.

Thanks to their strong spending power, local governments have the capacity to expand the production of greener products into the mainstream market, it said.

Green goods remain a niche category as general consumers are less interested in them due to higher initial costs.

But government purchases can boost demand, which will stimulate greater and faster technological breakthroughs and help the products move into the mainstream markets by ultimately allowing lower unit costs and mass production.

China has come under growing pressure to improve energy efficiency as its dependence on imported energy has risen, while its environment has continued to deteriorate.

China now ranks alongside the United States as the world's biggest emitters of the greenhouse gases that are blamed for global warming.

As part of its efforts to cut energy consumption, the government has said it would subsidise the sale of 100 million energy-efficient light bulbs nationwide this year, doubling the number subsidised in 2008.

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Even Deep Cuts in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Will Not Stop Global Warming

Drastic emissions cuts won't stop the global warming from gases already in the atmosphere
Douglas Fischer, Scientific American 14 Apr 09;

BOULDER – Drastic, economy-changing cuts to greenhouse gas emissions will spare the planet half the trauma expected over the next century as the Earth warms.

And that's the good news.

Because failure to significantly curb these planet-warming gases will truly transform our world in less than 100 years.

A new study to be published by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research finds that a 70 percent cut in emissions should stabilize temperatures at a mark not too much higher than today.

Such a cut, most experts agree, would require vast retooling of a fossil-fuel-based economy and an unprecedented level of global cooperation.

But that major effort to slash emissions, the scientists warn, won't stop global warming. The question confronting politicians throughout the world, in other words, is not whether they want the planet to warm: It is to what degree.

"We can no longer avoid significant warming during this century," NCAR scientist Warren Washington, the lead author, said in a statement. But "we could stabilize the threat of climate change and avoid catastrophe."

The study, employing the latest-generation computer models, will be published next week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. Mitigating emissions, the authors reported, blunts projected climate impacts and avoids the most dangerous potential impacts of climate disruption:

*The late-summer polar ice cap, already at historic lows today, would shrink only another quarter and hold steady by century's end, instead of melting by more than three-quarters with no let-up in sight.

*Arctic warming is potentially cut in half, stabilizing the northern Bering Sea and reducing impacts on commercial and subsistence fisheries.

*Regional heat wave intensity also drops by half, with the greatest reduction occurring over the western United States, Canada and most of Europe, Russia and Northern Africa.

*Flooding risk drops in half for the western tropical Pacific, Northeast United States and Canada, eastern Asia and South America.

But the emissions slash will not stem the tide: Global average temperatures would still rise by nearly 1º F, about what scientists attribute to date from industrial emissions since 1900.

Sea levels would creep up nearly six inches as a result of that extra heat, with any additional rise due to melting ice sheets unaccounted for in the study's calculations. And they would keep rising beyond 2100, given the oceans' thermal inertia.

"Note that despite a 70 percent reduction in emissions over the 21st century," the authors write, "there is virtually no cooling."

And while the cut would stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, it holds them at about 450 parts-per-million, according to the study. That's nearly 20 percent higher than today's concentrations and at or even above a threshold many scientists fear will trigger a series of cascading and transformative catastrophes.

Pre-industrial carbon dioxide levels were 284 ppm. Unchecked, emissions are on track to reach 750 ppm by 2100. Scientists don't even know what that would look like: Assumptions used by the computer models were drawn up before recent large emission increases from China and elsewhere, leaving scientists to conclude that their "business-as-usual" benchmark is a conservative estimate for what might actually happen.

Massive emissions cuts can save Arctic ice: study
Yahoo News 15 Apr 09;

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Cutting greenhouse gases by 70 percent this century would spare the planet the most traumatic effects of climate change, including the massive loss of Arctic sea ice, a study said Tuesday.

Warming in the Arctic would be almost halved, helping preserve fisheries, as well as sea birds and Arctic mammals like polar bears in some regions, including the northern Bering Sea, according to scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

But the massive cuts of greenhouse gas emissions advocated by the researchers would only "stabilize the threat of climate change and avoid catastrophe," said NCAR scientist Warren Washington, the study's lead author.

The cuts would also prevent huge losses of permafrost and a significant rise in the sea level, said the study to be published next week in Geophysical Research Letters.

"This research indicates that we can no longer avoid significant warming during this century," said Washington, who ran a series of global supercomputer studies.

The planet's average temperatures have warmed by nearly one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since the pre-industrial era. Most of the warming is due to emissions from greenhouse gases, chief among them carbon dioxide, the study noted.

Those gases have increased from a pre-industrial level of about 284 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere to more than 380 ppm today. Recent studies have found that temperatures would reach the threshold for dangerous climate change if they rise by an additional one degree Celsius.

If carbon dioxide emissions were to plateau and maintained at 450 ppm -- cited as an attainable target by the US Climate Change Science Program if dramatic emissions cuts are enacted -- global temperatures would rise by 0.6 degrees Celsius (one degree Fahrenheit) by the end of the century, the study said.

But if emissions were allowed to continue their current trend, temperatures would rise by almost four times that amount, to 2.2 degrees Celsius (four degrees Fahrenheit).

The researchers pointed to several major benefits from cutting carbon dioxide emissions.

Holding emissions at 450 ppm would translate to sea levels rising by 14 centimeters (5.5 inches) instead of 22 centimeters (8.7 inches) due to thermal expansion.

Arctic ice volume would shrink by almost a quarter in summertime and stabilize by 2100, rather than shrinking at least by three-quarters and continuing to melt.

The researchers also found that the climate system would stabilize by about 2100, rather than continuing to warm.

"This study provides some hope that we can avoid the worst impacts of climate change--if society can cut emissions substantially over the next several decades and continue major cuts through the century," Washington said.

European Union nations have agreed to cut their greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent by 2020 from 1990 levels, rising to 30 percent if the rest of the developed world -- mainly the United States and Japan -- agrees to follow suit.

During the 2008 US presidential campaign, Barack Obama vowed to match the European Union's mid-century objectives of cutting CO2 emissions by 80 percent.

But as president, Obama has offered a more modest goal for 2020 of returning the United States to 1990 level emissions, a reduction of about 14 percent from current levels.

Obama's promise of a leading US role on climate change broke with his predecessor George W. Bush's stance, which had long frustrated Washington's EU partners.

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World will not meet 2C warming target, climate change experts agree

Guardian poll reveals almost nine out of 10 climate experts do not believe current political efforts will keep warming below 2C
David Adam, The Guardian 14 Apr 09;

Almost nine out of 10 climate scientists do not believe political efforts to restrict global warming to 2C will succeed, a Guardian poll reveals today. An average rise of 4-5C by the end of this century is more likely, they say, given soaring carbon emissions and political constraints.

Such a change would disrupt food and water supplies, exterminate thousands of species of plants and animals and trigger massive sea level rises that would swamp the homes of hundreds of millions of people.

The poll of those who follow global warming most closely exposes a widening gulf between political rhetoric and scientific opinions on climate change. While policymakers and campaigners focus on the 2C target, 86% of the experts told the survey they did not think it would be achieved. A continued focus on an unrealistic 2C rise, which the EU defines as dangerous, could even undermine essential efforts to adapt to inevitable higher temperature rises in the coming decades, they warned.

The survey follows a scientific conference last month in Copenhagen, where a series of studies were presented that suggested global warming could strike harder and faster than realised.

The Guardian contacted all 1,756 people who registered to attend the conference and asked for their opinions on the likely course of global warming. Of 261 experts who responded, 200 were researchers in climate science and related fields. The rest were drawn from industry or worked in areas such as economics and social and political science.

The 261 respondents represented 26 countries and included dozens of senior figures, including laboratory directors, heads of university departments and authors of the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The poll asked the experts whether the 2C target could still be achieved, and whether they thought that it would be met: 60% of respondents argued that, in theory, it was still technically and economically possible to meet the target, which represents an average global warming of 2C since the industrial revolution. The world has already warmed by about 0.8C since then, and another 0.5C or so is inevitable over coming decades given past greenhouse gas emissions. But 39% said the 2C target was impossible.

The poll comes as UN negotiations to agree a new global treaty to regulate carbon pollution gather pace in advance of a key meeting in Copenhagen in December. Officials will try to agree a successor to the Kyoto protocol, the first phase of which expires in 2012. The 2C target is unlikely to feature in a new treaty, but most of the carbon cuts proposed for rich countries are based on it. Bob Watson, chief scientist to Defra, told the Guardian last year that the world needed to focus on the 2C target, but should also prepare for a possible 4C rise.

Asked what temperature rise was most likely, 84 of the 182 specialists (46%) who answered the question said it would reach 3-4C by the end of the century; 47 (26%) suggested a rise of 2-3C, while a handful said 6C or more. While 24 experts predicted a catastrophic rise of 4-5C, just 18 thought it would stay at 2C or under.

Some of those surveyed who said the 2C target would be met confessed they did so more out of hope rather than belief. "As a mother of young children I choose to believe this, and work hard toward it," one said.

"This optimism is not primarily due to scientific facts, but to hope," said another. Some said they thought geoengineering measures, such as seeding the ocean with iron to encourage plankton growth, would help meet the target.

Many of the experts stressed that an inability to hit the 2C target did not mean that efforts to tackle global warming should be abandoned, but that the emphasis is now on damage limitation.

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Rocket Launches Damage Ozone Layer, Study Says

Anne Minard, for National Geographic News 14 Apr 09;

Plumes from rocket launches could be the world's next worrisome emissions, according to a new study that says solid-fuel rockets damage the ozone layer, allowing more harmful solar rays to reach Earth.

Thanks to international laws, ozone-depleting chemicals such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and methyl bromide have been slowly fading from the atmosphere. But when solid-fuel rockets launch, they release chlorine gas directly into the stratosphere, where the chlorine reacts with oxygen to form ozone-destroying chlorine oxides.

Increased international space launches and the potential commercial space travel boom could mean that rockets will soon emerge as the worst offenders in terms of ozone depletion, according to the study, published in the March issue of the journal Astropolitics.

If the space tourism industry alone follows market projections, rocket launches are "going to run up against Montreal Protocol," said study co-author Darin Toohey of the University of Colorado at Boulder. The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, an international treaty, prescribes measures intended to hasten the recovery of Earth's depleted ozone layer.

"This isn't urgent," Toohey said. "But if we wait 30 years, it will be."

Rocket Pollution

Currently the U.S., European, and Indian governments power their rockets with a mix of liquid and solid fuels, which generally take the form of powder or crystals. Russia and China use liquid fuels almost exclusively.

In general, the liquid rocket propellants havent yet undergone the level of scrutiny that solid propellants have, noted study leader Martin Ross, an atmospheric scientist from the Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles.

"There is a general assumption that the various liquid rocket engines use 'green propellants,' and this is likely true to some extent," Ross said.

"But how do liquids compare to solids as far as ozone loss is concerned? We do not know for sure.

"What we have shown in the Astropolitics paper is that the rockets of the future will use liquid propellants and that they will fly ten or one hundred times more often than today's rockets," he continued.

"We do not have enough scientific information to predict how these high flight rates will affect the ozone layer in 10 or 20 years."

Further complicating matters, individual mission trajectories pollute to different degrees, he added.

Some launches release chemicals into the lower atmosphere, where most of them "rain out" fairly quickly. Others pollute the stratosphere, where they can linger and react with other chemicals.

Also, "we don't know enough about the real atmospheric impacts of all the various types [of fuels] to say for sure which are best," study co-author Toohey said.

"We need to get some observations in a variety of rockets to start to reduce uncertainties."

Global Warming vs. Ozone

Toohey is also sending out a pollution warning about so-called geoengineering proposals that have surfaced to combat global warming.

Some researchers, for example, want to seed the stratosphere with particles of sulfur dioxide and aluminum oxide to spur global cooling. (Read "Extreme Global Warming Fix Proposed: Fill the Skies With Sulfur.")

But aluminum oxide is one of the chemicals in solid rocket fuel that depletes ozone, Toohey pointed out.

"There are people in the engineering world who think we could address global warming in a way that could destroy our ozone layer," he said.

"If people are going to put particles into the stratosphere, they'd better be careful."

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Best of our wild blogs: 14 Apr 09

Basket of feathers
on the annotated budak blog

Yellow Lipped Sea Krait @ Pulau Hantu
video clip on the sgbeachbum blog

Back to Berlayar at dawn
on the wild shores of singapore blog and blooming Saga tree

The nesting season is on ...
on the Bird Ecology Study Group blog

Hornbill breeding in the Jurong Bird Park
on the Bird Ecology Study Group blog

St. John’s Island coastal cleanup by Deutsche Bank
on the News from the International Coastal Cleanup Singapore blog

Why We Need To Study Geohacking - Dangers of Reconfiguring The Planet's Ecology from The Daily Galaxy: News from Planet Earth & Beyond

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Trail at country club not a proper jogging track

Straits Times Forum 13 Apr 09;

PUB, the national water agency, thanks Mr Steve Choo for his feedback on the closure of the jogging track within Singapore Island Country Club.

The path that Mr Choo is referring to is not a proper jogging track but a dam which crosses in front of the teebox at the Singapore Island Country Club's New Course.

Jogging along this route is not only very dangerous as joggers may be hurt by golfers teeing off, but it is also trespassing on private property. Members of the public are advised to use safer alternative routes linking MacRitchie and Upper Peirce reservoirs.

Once again, we thank Mr Choo for his feedback.

Tan Nguan Sen
Director, Catchment and Waterways
PUB, the national water agency

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Got Nature? Why You Need to Get Out

Andrea Thompson, livescience.com Yahoo News 13 Apr 09;

NEW YORK - In our increasingly urbanized world, it turns out that a little green can go a long way toward improving our health, not just that of the planet.

That could mean something as simple as a walk in the park or just a tree viewed through a window. It's not necessarily the exercise that is the key. It's the refreshing contact with nature and its uncomplicated demands on us.

Here is how it works: Modern life - commuting, computing, paying taxes - can place a burden on our brains and bodies. In recent years, scientists at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign's Landscape and Human Health Laboratory and elsewhere have compiled evidence that suggests that a connection to nature is vital to our psychological and physical health because it helps recharge our brains so that we're better able to cope with the stresses in life.

This ingrained dependence on our environment is like that of any other animal it seems, because like other organisms, we evolved to thrive in our natural surroundings, said Frances (Ming) Kuo, director of the laboratory. Kuo's colleague William Sullivan discussed this topic earlier this month at a symposium, "Exploring the Dynamic Relationship Between Health and the Environment," at the American Museum of Natural History here.

"It's out there in real life; people can see it," Kuo told LiveScience.

Urban shift

In 2007, it was estimated that more than half of the world's population lived in urban, rather than rural, areas for the first time in human history.

Urban environments, with their traffic and harried pace, are a constant drain on our mental resources because we have to work to pay attention to a myriad of stimuli.

Similarly, animals taken out of their natural habitats can start to degrade mentally and physically - parenting skills decline, aggression increases and playful activity stops. Some of these same symptoms can be seen in particularly stressed human populations.

Nature, on the other hand, is a little kinder to our craniums.

"In evolution, those of us who found it - nature - sort of inherently interesting probably were more likely to remember where the berries were" or where a specific threat was, Kuo explained. "And so the idea is that we're selected for being interested in relevant natural phenomena."

So thanks to evolution, we don't have to work to pay attention to nature - it, well, naturally interests us. Several studies conducted by Kuo and her colleagues show that exercising this easy interest in nature, even unconsciously, seems to improve our ability to pay attention and react to stressful situations.

Green vs. non-green

In a 2001 study detailed in the journal Environment and Behavior, Kuo and her colleagues surveyed parents of children aged 7 to 12 who had been diagnosed with an Attention Deficit Disorder. They asked the parents to rate activities that seemed to alleviate their child's symptoms and which seemed to aggravate them.

They found the children functioned better after a "green" activity (i.e. one that likely took place in a natural setting, such as fishing or soccer) than a "non-green" one (such as watching TV or playing video games).

Kuo and her colleagues think the improvement stems from nature's ability to capture our attention involuntarily, giving the hard-working, overtaxed part of our brain used to voluntarily focus our attention on more demanding tasks a break, essentially allowing it to recharge.

A series of studies conducted by Kuo's lab in public housing around Chicago found similar results.

The researchers interviewed a number of female residents of public housing projects. Each subject was randomly assigned to rooms that had views of trees or grass outside and ones that looked out on barren courtyards.

People living in public housing "have fatiguing lives, and not particularly rejuvenating home circumstances," Kuo said. "They're just much more likely to be at the end of their rope on any given day."

Through the interviews, the researchers found that residents whose apartments were exposed to green spaces reported fewer aggressive conflicts, including domestic violence, than those who that had no views of green spaces. They also procrastinated less on major goals, such as finding a job or a new home, and were less likely to think their problems were unsolvable.

Having our capacities for attention restored, "allows us to be our best selves, so we are able to inhibit impulses that we want to be able to inhibit; we can take the long view of things; we can think better," Kuo said.

These benefits can reach beyond an individual person to the community or even society, by strengthening community ties and helping disadvantaged populations better cope with and solve their problems.

"When you take the individual effects, and then you magnify it by the fact that people around you share that same environment, you can actually imagine that they're really, really significant effects," Kuo said.

For example, greener areas also had lower crime rates and more socializing between neighbors.

Where there are trees and other greenery outside buildings, "what you see is people are using the outdoor spaces more often, and as a consequence, they actually run into each other," Kuo said. And with more people using the spaces, there are more "eyes on the street," which could deter crime.

The green spaces are "kind of the seed around which strong neighborhoods grow," Kuo said.

Physical health

Access to green spaces can lead to improvements in physical health too, other studies have found.

One study of 80- to 85-year-olds conducted in Tokyo found that those with access to green space had a lower rate of mortality, even when socioeconomic status was taken into account.

Another study in the United Kingdom found that the health disparities normally seen between the wealthy and non-wealthy disappeared when access to green areas was factored in.

One study conducted in Indianapolis found that children in greener neighborhoods had a reduced risk of being overweight or obese.

"All their findings are kind of pointing in the same direction," Kuo said.

Kuo said that the connections between green spaces and health could be applied to daily life, both at the individual and community levels.

After a hard day at work, maybe do a little gardening before starting in on the taxes, or, if you're a student, play some soccer before studying for that test. (Kuo said that nature isn't the only thing that can help us rejuvenate in this way - reading a book for pleasure, listening to music or spending quiet time with friends and family can also help by easily engaging us while letting our brains rest.)

Cities and other communities can also use this information, and several already have.

Chicago recently undertook a $10 million tree-planting initiative - the largest in city history. They also used a large chunk of the federal funds for rehabbing the city on landscaping, which Kuo was told was done partly because of the findings of her studies.

Washington, D.C., Philadelphia and New York also have city greening initiatives running or in the works.

"So it seems like policy folks are paying attention," Kuo said.

But even with the benefits that Kuo and others have seen their studies, there still may be more links not yet discovered.

"We're finding all these ways in which the environment matters to us and affects, but I don't think we're done," she said.

Read more!

Attenborough warns on population

BBC News 13 Apr 09;

The broadcaster Sir David Attenborough has become a patron of a group seeking to cut the growth in human population.

On joining the Optimum Population Trust, Sir David said growth in human numbers was "frightening".

Sir David has been increasingly vocal about the need to reduce the number of people on Earth to protect wildlife.

The Trust, which accuses governments and green groups of observing a taboo on the topic, say they are delighted to have Sir David as a patron.

Fraught area

Sir David, one of the BBC's longest-standing presenters, has been making documentaries on the natural world and conservation for more than half a century.

In a statement issued by the Optimum Population Trust he is quoted as saying: "I've never seen a problem that wouldn't be easier to solve with fewer people, or harder, and ultimately impossible, with more."

The Trust, which was founded in 1991, campaigns for the UK population to decrease voluntarily by not less than 0.25% a year.

It has launched a "Stop at Two" online pledge to encourage couples to limit their family's size.

Other patrons include Jonathan Porritt, chairman of the UK Sustainable Development Commission, and Dame Jane Goodall, founder of the Jane Goodall institute.

BBC environment analyst Roger Harrabin said population was a fraught area of debate, with libertarians and some religious groups vehemently opposing measures by governments to influence individual fertility.

In turn, the Trust accuses policy makers and environmentalists of conspiring in a "silent lie" that human numbers can grow forever with no ill-effects.

In January 2009, Sir David revealed that he had received hate mail from viewers for not crediting God in his nature programmes.

His most recent documentary focused on how Charles Darwin came up with the theory of evolution and why it remained important.

David Attenborough to be patron of Optimum Population Trust
Parminder Bahra, Times Online 14 Apr 09;

Sir David Attenborough said yesterday that the growth in global population was frightening, as he became a patron of an organisation that campaigns to limit the number of people in the world.

The television presenter and naturalist said that the increase in population was having devastating effects on ecology, pollution and food production.

“There are three times as many people in the world as when I started making television programmes only a mere 56 years ago,” he said, after becoming a patron of the Optimum Population Trust (OPT) think-tank.

“It is frightening. We can’t go on as we have been. We are seeing the consequences in terms of ecology, atmospheric pollution and in terms of the space and food production.

“I’ve never seen a problem that wouldn’t be easier to solve with fewer people, or harder, and ultimately impossible, with more. Population is reaching its optimum and the world cannot hold an infinite number of people,” Sir David, who has two children, said.

The OPT counts among its patrons the environmentalist Jonathon Porritt and the academic Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta. However, Sir David’s appointment has already been criticised. Austin Williams, author of The Enemies of Progress, said: “Experts can still be stupid when they speak on subjects of which they know little. Sir David may know a sight more than I do about remote species but that does not give him the intelligence to speak on global politics.

“I have a problem with the line that people are a problem. More people are a good thing. People are the source of creativity, intelligence, analysis and problem-solving. If we see people as just simple things that consume and excrete carbon, then the OPT may have a point, but people are more than this and they will be the ones to find the solutions.” Sir David said that the OPT was drawing attention to the issue of population and being a patron seemed a worthwhile thing to do.

Roger Martin, the chairman of the trust, said that the appointment would put pressure on organisations to face up to the issue of population: “The environmental movement will not confront the fact that there is not a single problem that they deal with which would not be easier with fewer people.”

The trust campaigns for global access to family planning and for couples to be encouraged to stop having more than two children. In Britain it wants to stabilise the population by bringing immigration into balance with emigration and making greater efforts to reduce teenage pregnancies.

Mr Martin said that the UK population must be reduced to a sustainable level because Britain was already the most overcrowded country in Europe.He said the world could not increase production to meet the needs of a growing population: “We can’t feed ourselves with some of the most intensive agriculture in the world — we’re only 70 per cent self-sufficient.”

Mr Martin said that Britain could not rely on the world food market because, when food runs short, exporters do not export it: “Last year, we saw India and China banning exports of rice when there was a shortage.”

A MATTER OF LIFE AND DEATH

The first scholar to bring overpopulation to the fore was the Rev Thomas Malthus. His academic work in the late 18th and early 19th centuries outraged and inspired succeeding generations (Tim Glanfield writes).

Malthus grew up in Guildford, Surrey, the youngest of eight siblings, and during his childhood encountered some of the great minds of his age. His father was a friend of the philosophers David Hume and Jean-Jacques Rousseau, and the young Malthus needed little encouragement to study mathematics at Cambridge.

He made his name with a landmark text, An Essay on the Principle of Population, published in six editions between 1798 and 1826 and underlined by strong scepticism for future human generations.

Malthus believed that all previous generations had included a “poor” underclass created by an inherent lack of resources in the world that would continue if population growth were not addressed. His theory is summarised by his assertion that “the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in Earth to produce sustenance for Man”.

He saw two significant variables in the world, those that are positive and raise the death rate — famine, disease and war — and those that are preventive and lower the birthrate — birth control, abortion, celibacy and postponement of marriage.

In practising the preventive measures and gradually reducing poor laws, Malthus argued, society would no longer “create the poor which they maintain”.

The expectations of population growth outlined in his essay had a significant influence on Darwin’s evolutionary theories and many modern political theses, but Malthus remains a controversial and much vilified scholar. Shelley branded him “a eunuch and a tyrant”, Marx as “the principal enemy of the people” and Lenin called his work a “reactionary doctrine”.

Sir David Attenborough backs campaign to limit human population
The Telegraph 14 Apr 09;

Sir David Attenborough has said that a "frightening explosion in human numbers" was behind every threat to wildlife across the world.

The veteran broadcaster made his comments as he became patron of a group seeking to cut the growth in human population.

The Optimum Population Trust (OPT) believes Earth may not be able to support more than half its present numbers before the end of the century.

In a statement released on the organisation's website, Sir David, 82, said: "I've seen wildlife under mounting human pressure all over the world and it's not just from human economy or technology - behind every threat is the frightening explosion in human numbers.

"I've never seen a problem that wouldn't be easier to solve with fewer people, or harder, and ultimately impossible, with more.

"That's why I support the OPT, and I wish the environmental NGOs would follow their lead, and spell out this central problem loud and clear."

The trust, which was founded in 1991, wants the UK population to decrease by not less than 0.25% a year and has launched a "Stop at Two" pledge to encourage couples to voluntarily limit the size of their families.

World population is projected to rise from 6.8 billion today to 9.1 billion in 2050, it says.

OPT chairman Roger Martin said he was "delighted" to welcome Sir David as patron and added: "All serious environmentalists know perfectly well that population growth, exploding in the 20th century, has been a key driver of every environmental problem.

In January, Sir David revealed he received hate mail from viewers for not crediting God in his nature programmes.

His latest documentary on Charles Darwin and natural selection marked two centuries since Darwin's birth and 150 years since the groundbreaking On the Origin of Species was published.

Read more!

Mangroves can save lives in cyclones

UPI News 13 Apr 09;

DURHAM, N.C., April 13 (UPI) -- A study of the 1999 super cyclone that hit eastern India suggests villages shielded from the storm surge by mangrove forests fared better than other areas.

The study by researchers at India's University of Delhi and Duke University in the United States analyzed deaths in 409 villages in the poor, mostly rural Kendrapada District of the Indian state of Orissa, just north of the cyclone's landfall. It showed areas protected by mangrove forests experienced significantly fewer deaths than did less-protected villages.

Mangroves are dense forests of trees and shrubs that grow in brackish, low-lying coastal swamps in the tropics and subtropics.

"Our analysis shows a clear inverse relationship between the number of deaths per village and the width of the mangroves located between those villages and the coast," said Duke University Professor Jeffrey Vincent. "Taking other environmental and socioeconomic factors into account, villages with wider mangroves suffered significantly fewer deaths than ones with narrower or no mangroves.

"We believe this is the first robust evidence that mangroves can protect coastal villages against certain types of natural disasters," he added.

Vincent conducted the analysis with Saudamini Das of the University of Delhi. Their findings appear in the early online early edition of The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Read more!

Overfishing to wipe out bluefin tuna: WWF

Reuters 13 Apr 09;

MADRID (Reuters) - Overfishing will wipe out the breeding population of Atlantic bluefin tuna, one of the ocean's largest and fastest predators, in three years unless catches are dramatically reduced, conservation group WWF said on Tuesday.

As European fishing fleets prepare to begin the two-month Mediterranean fishing season on Wednesday, WWF said its analysis showed the bluefin tuna that spawn -- those aged four years and older -- will have disappeared by 2012 at current rates.

"For years people have been asking when the collapse of this fishery will happen, and now we have the answer," said Sergi Tudela, Head of Fisheries at WWF Mediterranean.

The fish, which can weigh over half a tonne and accelerate faster than a sports car, are a favorite of sushi lovers. Demand from Japan has triggered an explosion in the size of the Mediterranean fleet over the past decade and many of those boats use illegal spotter planes to track the warm-blooded tuna.

"Mediterranean (Atlantic) bluefin tuna is collapsing as we speak and yet the fishery will kick off again tomorrow for business as usual. It is absurd and inexcusable to open a fishing season when stocks of the target species are collapsing," added Tudela.

Environmental groups condemned an agreement signed in November by states setting bluefin quotas -- a body dominated by EU members. The groups called it "a disaster" and "a disgrace," saying the states again chose to ignore their own scientists and set quotas 47 percent higher than recommended.

Illegal fishing is also rife for the bluefin, the dried, dark red meat of which once fed Roman armies on the march.

Growing numbers of restaurants and retailers including Carrefour's Italian supermarkets are boycotting it.

WWF said that analysis of official data showed the average size of mature tunas had more than halved since the 1990s and that this has had a disproportionately high impact since bigger fish produced many more offspring.

The bluefin can only be saved by a compete halt to fishing in May and June as the fish rush through the Straits of Gibraltar to spawn in the Mediterranean, WWF and other campaign groups say.

(Reporting by Ben Harding)

Mediterranean bluefin tuna stocks collapsing now as fishing season opens
WWF 14 Apr 09;

Rome, Italy – As the Mediterranean’s bloated fishing fleets ready themselves for the opening of the bluefin tuna fishery tomorrow, WWF has released an analysis showing that the bluefin breeding population will disappear by 2012 under the current fishing regime.

Global conservation organization WWF reveals that the population of breeding tunas has been declining steeply for the past decade – and will be wiped out completely in 3 years if fisheries managers and decision-makers keep ignoring the warnings from scientists that fishing must stop.

“Mediterranean bluefin tuna is on the slippery slope to collapse, and here is the data to prove it,” said Dr Sergi Tudela, Head of Fisheries at WWF Mediterranean. “Whichever way you look at it, the Mediterranean bluefin tuna collapse trend is dramatic, it is alarming, and it is happening now.

“WWF has no choice but to again urge the immediate closure of this fishery.”

The population of tunas that are capable of reproducing – fish aged 4 years or over and weighing more than 35kg – is being wiped out. In 2007 the proportion of breeding tuna was only a quarter of the levels of 50 years ago, with most of the decline happening in recent years.

Meanwhile, the size of mature tunas has more than halved since the 1990s. The average size of tuna caught off the coast of Libya, for example, has dropped from 124kg in 2001 to only 65kg last year. Data gathered by WWF show that this pattern has been observed across the entire Mediterranean.

Before the age of large-scale industrial fishing, individual tunas could even weigh in at 900kg. The loss of these giant tunas – able to produce many more offspring than medium-sized individuals – has a disproportionately high impact on the reproduction of the species.

The huge overcapacity of fishing fleets, catches that far exceed legal quotas, pirate fishing, the use of illegal spotting planes to chase the tunas, under-reporting of catch, fishing during the closed season, management measures disregarding scientific advice – and the insatiable appetite of the world’s luxury seafood markets – have all contributed to this dramatic decline.

“For years people have been asking when the collapse of this fishery will happen, and now we have the answer,” added Dr Tudela. “Mediterranean bluefin tuna is collapsing as we speak and yet the fishery will kick off again tomorrow for business as usual. It is absurd and inexcusable to open a fishing season when stocks of the target species are collapsing.”

WWF is calling for the immediate closure of the Mediterranean bluefin tuna fishery to give the species a chance to recover, while continuing to encourage consumers, retailers, restaurants and chefs to join the global movement to avoid the consumption of the imperilled fish.

There is also growing support to suspend international trade of Atlantic bluefin tuna by getting it listed on Appendix I of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) when contracting parties meet in early 2010.

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Biomass 'worse than fossil fuels'

BBC News 13 Apr 09;

Biomass power could become one of the worst emitters of greenhouse gases, the Environment Agency (EA) has warned.

Ploughing up pasture to plant energy crops could produce more CO2 by 2030 than burning fossil fuels, it said.

The EA's study of biomass fuels also found waste wood and MDF produced the lowest emissions, while willow, poplar and oil seed rape made the highest.

The agency has called on the government to force biomass companies to report all greenhouse gas emissions.

Wood-burning stoves, boilers and even power stations are seen by many as critical to Britain's renewable energy targets.

Biomass is considered low carbon as long as what is burnt is replaced by new growth, and harvesting and transport do not use too much fuel.

'Role to play'

But the EA's report Biomass: Carbon Sink or Carbon Sinner found that the greenhouse gas emission savings from such fuels were highly variable.

At its best, biomass could produce as little as 7kg of CO2 per kilowatt hour - 98% less than coal, saving around two million tonnes of CO2 every year.



However, the study also found that in some cases overall emissions could be higher than those of fossil fuels.

This was particularly true where energy crops were planted on permanent grassland, it said.

Tony Grayling, head of climate change and sustainable development at the Environment Agency, said biomass could play a role in helping the UK meet its renewable energy targets.

But he argued the credibility of biomass rested on tough sustainability criteria and called on biomass projects to combine heat and power production.

"Biomass is a limited resource, and we must make sure it is not wasted on inefficient generators that do not take advantage of the emissions savings to be made from combined heat and power," he said.

"By 2030, biomass fuels will need to be produced using good practice simply to keep up with the average carbon intensity of the electricity grid."

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Water worries cloud future for U.S. biofuel

Carey Gillam, Reuters 13 Apr 09;

KANSAS CITY, Missouri (Reuters) - It's corn planting time in the U.S. Plains, and that means Kansas corn farmer Merl "Buck" Rexford is worrying about the weather -- and hoping there is enough water.

Rexford plans to start seeding his 7,000 acres near Meade, Kansas, this week and he is relishing a recent heavy snow storm that dropped several inches of much-needed moisture.

Like corn farmers throughout the United States, Rexford hopes to grow a healthy crop yielding more than 150 bushels an acre this year. Much of his crop will wind up at a nearby ethanol plant.

And that puts the 65-year-old Rexford at the center of a bitter divide over biofuels, particularly corn ethanol.

Critics argue that precious water resources are being bled dry by ethanol when water shortages are growing ever more dire. Federal mandates encouraging more ethanol production don't help.

Proponents say corn ethanol for transportation fuel is far better for the environment, national security and the economy than oil and the first step toward cleaner fuel sources.

"We really have to ask ourselves, do we want to be driving with renewable fuels or with gasoline made from petroleum resources," said Brent Erickson, executive vice president at the Biotechnology Industry Organization, which backs ethanol.

Corn ethanol's future is already muddied by concerns that it requires a substantial amount of energy to produce and that heightened demand makes corn more costly in human food and livestock feed. Now, with climate change concerns mounting and drought becoming more of a problem in many areas, the water-intensive nature of creating ethanol also is a growing concern.

"Biofuels are off the charts in water consumption. We're definitely looking at something where the cure may be worse than the disease," said Brooke Barton, a manager of corporate accountability for Ceres, a group backed by institutional investors focused on the financial risks of climate change.

Corn is a particularly thirsty plant, requiring about 20 inches of soil moisture per acre to grow a decent crop, but most corn is grown with rain, not irrigation. Manufacturing plants that convert corn's starch into fuel are a far bigger draw on water sources.

Water consumption by ethanol plants largely comes from evaporation during cooling and wastewater discharge. A typical plant uses about 4.2 gallons of water to make one gallon of ethanol, according to the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy.

The ethanol industry pegs that at about 3 gallons of water to 1 gallon of fuel.

WASHINGTON PLAN

Washington lawmakers and the White House have been encouraging the use of ethanol as an alternative fuel to help lighten the nation's costly dependence on foreign oil.

But the moves are meeting opposition from many groups who fear that population growth and climate change are combining in ways that will leave not only the United States, but the world, with too little water. Many ethanol plants are located in agricultural areas -- close to the corn, but also close to other users who need a lot of water to operate, such as hog farmers and cattle ranchers.

"We're headed in the wrong direction and this problem is not going away," said Mark Muller, program director at the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy. "This water issue is like the financial crisis... and I'm afraid something awful is going to happen."

The group says much of the Corn Belt stretching through Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota and Indiana has enough water for all, but water availability could challenge the ethanol industry in areas including greater Chicago, western Iowa and Nebraska, and generally west of the Missouri River.

"Water use could be a limiting factor (for ethanol) if we don't introduce and support more water-saving technologies, " added the Institute's Jim Kleinschmit.

"Water is a worry," agreed Heritage Foundation senior policy analyst for energy and environment Ben Lieberman. "When we expand corn ethanol as we have with these federal mandates," he said, "we are starting to see corn in more marginal areas that may need more irrigation. We are seeing increased water use not just for the processing plants but also the water in growing the corn."

Last month, a coalition of environmental, agricultural, business and consumer groups asked the Obama administration not to raise the amount of ethanol blended into gasoline without further study.

Ethanol supporters don't dispute the water-intensive nature of the industry. But they say much of the corn crop relies on rain from the skies, not pumped out of the ground, and even irrigation systems are improving to reduce water usage by almost half. More water-efficient production plants are also reducing water use. In January 2009, there were 170 ethanol plants operating in the United States and 24 more new or expanding plants.

In 2008, the United States led the world in ethanol production, generating 9 billion gallons, or 52 percent of the world production. That is up from 6.5 billion gallons of U.S. ethanol in 2007, according to the Renewable Fuels Association. The U.S. aims for 15 billion gallons by 2015.

THIRSTY WORLD

Freshwater consumption worldwide is expected to rise 25 percent by 2030 due largely to world population growth from 6.6 billion currently to about 8 billion by 2030 and more than 9 billion by 2050, according to Ceres.

Some believe crop biotechnology could offer at least a partial solution, and several companies are racing to develop corn that is drought-tolerant, including Monsanto Co, which hopes to launch a product in 2012.

DuPont Co.'s Pioneer Hi-Bred unit plans to roll out a low-water conventionally produced corn as early as 2010.

Back in Kansas, farmer Rexford would welcome a more drought-hardy corn seed. Water to irrigate his crop is getting harder and more expensive to come by.

Still, farmers need the premiums selling their corn for ethanol can bring, he said, just as much as the nation needs to break free from dependence on foreign oil.

"If farmers go out of business you'll have a lot worse crisis than an oil crisis," he said.

(Reporting by Carey Gillam, editing by Peter Henderson and Cynthia Osterman)

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