Tourists, hunters in quest for Iceland's whales

Delphine Touitou Yahoo News 28 Apr 09;

REYKJAVIK (AFP) – Tourists bundled up in heavy parkas board a whale-watching boat docked in Reykjavik's port, excited at the thought of glimpsing the mighty animal. Across the harbour, whalers prepare their ships for the hunting season.

"It's quite strange to have these two boats in front of each other," says Angela Walk, a 37-year-old tourist guide for one of nine Icelandic companies that offers whale-spotting tours off the coast of this island in the middle of the North Atlantic.

Walk, a native of Germany who settled in Iceland 12 years ago, says her company "is against whaling."

"We try to convince them to stop. It's not good for Iceland's image."

But whaling presents a paradox for the country: it's a precious resource both for the tourism industry, which wants to protect the animals, and whalers who want to hunt them in what they say is a traditional and cultural right.

Every day during summer's peak season, thousands of tourists spend 45 euros (60 dollars) each in the hopes of sighting a minke whale, or, if they're lucky, the more imposing fin whale.

"On a 60-tonne fin whale, 50 percent is blubber and 50 percent is meat," explains Olafur Olafsson, a 59-year-old fisherman and whaler who has worked at sea since the age of 14.

This burly redhead is the captain of the boat named "H", for "Hvalur" or whale in Icelandic which is also the name of the company. It is the only whaling company in Iceland licensed to hunt fin whales.

Olafsson says that after spending two decades docked in port due to Iceland's suspension of whaling, his 51-meter (167-foot) ship will soon be ready to set sail with its 15 crew on June 2 -- a day after the hunt officially begins on Monday, June 1.

"Mondays are unlucky," he says, citing local superstition.

Three years ago when Iceland, a country of 320,000 people, announced it was resuming commercial whaling it set a quota of nine fin whales and 40 minke whales.

In January of this year, the government sharply increased the quota to 150 fin whales and up to 150 minkes per year for the next five years, a move that sparked an international outcry.

Fisheries Minister Steingrimur Sigfusson, whose left-wing government inherited the quotas when it came to power in February, said Iceland was reconsidering the levels and may revise the numbers later this year.

He told AFP whaling was a "complex" issue, but "the majority of Icelanders see it as a natural thing ... We are a nation of farmers and fishermen."

The pro-whaling camp says the quotas are needed to maintain the balance of the ocean's ecosystem, and to protect fish stocks, since a whale devours several tonnes of fish a day.

Olafsson insists that the whaling industry is strictly regulated: "We don't hunt whales smaller than 20 meters (65 feet), nor mothers with calves."

And in 99 percent of cases, the whale is killed immediately, on the first try, with a harpoon that fires off two explosive charges within a fraction of a second.

"We don't want to hurt the animal because we want the meat to be healthy," Olafsson said.

Meanwhile, on board the whale-watching boat, captain Roland Buchholz steers with one hand, his other hand clutching binoculars that slowly scan the horizon.

"I'm looking at birds. It's the only way to know where food is, and probably whales."

Suddenly, a minke whale surfaces, breaking the water for a fleeting moment, to the delight of tourists -- who have mixed reactions to the whale hunt.

"We are very much against whaling. There's no scientific reason to justify it. It's simply for making money," says 50-year-old Martin Holway of Britain, who travelled to Iceland with his wife for a whale-watching tour.

Steve Feye, a 54-year-old from Boston, was meanwhile more understanding.

"It's cultural and a question of tradition."

"The whale show, with the whales coming up and down, is beautiful. But I can understand that whaling is also important for Icelandic people, especially during the economic crisis," he said.

The head of Iceland's conservative Independence Party, Bjarni Benediktsson, said whaling easily becomes an "emotional issue."

"It's a question of sovereignty to do whatever we want with our resources," he told AFP.

"We are following the rules of the game ... in concert with experts and scientists who set the quotas," he said.

And, he asks, why can't tourism and whaling co-exist?

According to Angela Walk, a large majority of Iceland's whale meat is eaten by tourists, "out of curiosity".

Iceland and Norway are the only two countries in the world that authorise commercial whaling. Japan officially hunts whales for scientific purposes, which are contested by opponents, and the whale meat is sold for consumption.

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Cameroon Forest Elephants Face Extinction - WWF

Tansa Musa, PlanetArk 27 Apr 09;

YAOUNDE - Forest elephants in Cameroon and the Congo Basin could be extinct within 10 years without measures to fight the illegal ivory trade and curb habitat loss, a WWF official said in an interview.

During the last 40 years, environmentalists estimate the forest elephant population has fallen 75 percent, standing at some 140,000 for the Congo Basin and 13,000-15,000 for Cameroon.

Only about 9 percent of the elephants in Cameroon and 33 percent in the region are inside protected areas, while the vast majority roam in the wild jungle and are difficult to monitor.

Environmentalists blame growing demand for ivory from Asia, particularly the emerging economies of China and India, for the pressure on the forest elephants in recent years.

"Cameroon forest elephants, and I would say elephants in all the Congo Basin rainforest, are under very serious threat. In fact the threat has never been as high as it is today," Martin Tchamba, WWF Cameroon country director told Reuters on Friday.

"They are declining in large numbers every day due to the booming lucrative international illicit trade in ivory and the disappearance of their habitat. If governments in the region do not take urgent measures to combat the illicit trade and habitat loss, they could be extinct within the next 10 years," he said.

A report in the local bi-weekly The Post said game guards confiscated 60 tusks from poachers in Cameroon's Boumba-Ngoko division in 2008 and have taken 20 since the start of 2009.

But environmentalists in the country believe the figure could be much higher, because control and monitoring are difficult and not very effective in the area's thick jungle, while game guards are few and poorly equipped.

LOGGING, MINING AND WEAPONS

"Thousands of elephants are killed every year to meet rising demand. The region is the principal source of ivory on the world market, supplying about 80 percent of the demand," said Tchamba.

"There is a preference for 'hard' forest ivory from Central African range countries including Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo Republic, Gabon and the DRC," he said.

Tchamba said the trade was fuelled by logging and mining companies building roads that open up access to the primary forest, the last strongholds for elephants. In the last two years, 60 permits have been granted for Boumba-Ngoko, a region thought to hold rich iron ore, gold and uranium deposits.

"Through their activities, these companies encroach on protected areas and decimate vast expanses of forests, resulting in the serious fragmentation of the habitat of this flagship animal species," said Tchamba.

Poachers are also using more sophisticated weapons such as AK47 assault rifles, making it hard for local game park wardens to take them on. The weapons are freely available in a region with porous borders and conflicts in neighbouring countries.

"The massive circulation of war arms is boosting elephant poaching. We recently confiscated a Kalashnikov and a grenade from poachers. This is a new phenomenon we are trying to get to grips with in this region," said Eitel Pandong, the government delegate for Forestry and Wildlife for Boumba-Ngoko.

(Editing by David Clarke)

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Death Knell Sounds For Europe's Beekeepers

Pete Harrison, PlanetArk 28 Apr 09;

BRUSSELS - Europe's beekeeping industry could be wiped out in less than a decade as bees fall victim to disease, insecticides and intensive farming, international beekeeping body Apimondia said on Monday.

"With this level of mortality, European beekeepers can only survive another 8 to 10 years," Gilles Ratia, president of Apimondia, told Reuters.

"We have had big problems in southwest France for many years, but also now in Italy and Germany."

Last year, about 30 percent of Europe's 13.6 million hives died, according to Apimondia figures. Losses reached 50 percent in Slovenia and as high as 80 percent in southwest Germany.

With 35 percent of European food crops relying on bees to pollinate them, it poses a big threat for farmers, said Ratia.

"It is a complete crisis," said Francesco Panella, who tends about 1,000 hives in Piedmont, northern Italy. "Last year, I lost about half my production. I can't survive more than 2 or 3 more years like this. My son won't be able to continue my trade."

Mystery has surrounded the recent decline of bee numbers, but most keepers blame modern farming methods and the powerful new pesticides used on crops like sunflower, maize and rapeseed.

Two main factors were responsible for weakening bee colonies: insecticides and the parasitic mite Varroa, says Apimondia's scientific coordinator Gerard Arnold. Once weakened, the hives are then decimated by viruses and other diseases.

Evidence of farming's impact comes from the fact French honey output has suffered in intensive sunflower farming areas but has remained steady in mountains and chestnut forests, said Henri Clement, president of the French beekeeping union.

Beekeepers are perplexed about why so little attention is given to an industry that supplies 58 percent of Europe's appetite of 340,000 tonnes of honey a year.

"If cattle were producing 30 percent less milk each year, it would not be acceptable. But that is what we have had to put up with," said Josef Stich, who keeps 200 hives near Vienna.

Earlier this year, the European Union voted to phase out the most toxic pesticides after years of wrangling, but many bee-keepers feel ignored by politicians.

The honey industry's concerns are drowned out by the interests of the giant corporations that produce the pesticides, said Apimondia's Ratia.

"Politicians are more susceptible to the big lobbying of the chemical industry," he said. "We beekeepers can talk and talk, but we don't receive much consideration."

(Additional reporting by Jeremy Smith; Editing by Matthew Jones)

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Hurricanes reduce ability of forests to store carbon

Bob Holmes, New Scientist 27 Apr 09;

Destruction wreaked by hurricanes over the past 150 years has severely affected the ability of US forests to store carbon, say ecologists.

The finding suggests that an increase in hurricanes and tropical storms induced by global warming could turn forests into overall emitters of carbon dioxide, fuelling further climate change.

Trees absorb CO2 from the atmosphere as they grow, then release it again when they die and decay. Ecologist Jeffrey Chambers of Tulane University in New Orleans, Louisiana, and his colleagues used data on hurricanes and the damage they have caused to estimate the total loss of biomass in US forests for every year from 1851 to 2000.

They calculated that storm damage released an average of 25 megatonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere each year. More detailed measurements for the 1980s suggest that because of this damage, US forests absorbed up to 18 per cent less CO2 than they otherwise would have – even though the decade experienced below-average hurricane damage.

At present, worldwide forest growth offsets about 25 per cent of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, says Chambers. But if, as many climate scientists predict, hurricanes become more common or more severe, the added forest damage that will occur in the US and elsewhere could reduce that offset substantially.

Journal reference: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0808914106

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Science cash 'to beat food riots'

Pallab Ghosh, BBC News 27 Apr 09;

Food riots are a real threat in some developing and emerging countries unless funds for agricultural research are increased, says a UK scientist.

Prof Douglas Kell says investment in the UK alone needs to be increased by £100m if farmers are to produce sufficient food to meet global demand.

"This is happening now," he told BBC News. "Last year, in Indonesia and Mexico, there were food riots."

Prof Kell leads the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council.

He envisages further unrest if there is not a major effort to develop agricultural science.

"This makes it sound rather dramatic but if I have to choose between 'yes' and 'no' - the answer is 'yes'".

Professor Kell's warning follows a statement made by the UK government's chief scientific adviser, Professor John Beddington, in which he said that demand for food and energy would jump 50% by 2030 as the population topped 8.3 billion.

Changing temperatures and rainfall patterns resulting from climate change would mean that farmers had to grow different, possibly completely new, varieties of crops, he argued.

He also warned that a changing climate could lead many crop-eating insects to migrate. At present, 30-40% of all crops are lost due to pest and disease before they are harvested.

Key genes

New methods of sequencing the genomes of plants mean that scientists now have the ability to identify key genes that might improve food production.

Modifications could make them more resistant to pests or increases in temperature, scientists say.

"There is a significant likelihood that without investing in the science to deliver higher crop yields, we will not have the kinds of food levels we need to ensure food security," Prof Kell said.

The chief executive of the BBSRC believes that there should be a £100m increase in agricultural research funding.

He says the new investment should be made as soon as possible because it can take 10 years for a scientific breakthrough to move from the laboratory bench to full-scale commercial production.

The onus was on the UK because it led the world in this field, he told BBC News.

"The UK has a particularly strong science base in plant and microbial science and that puts us in a particularly good place to help us feed the world."

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Madagascar Drought Puts 250,000 Children At Risk

PlanetArk 27 Apr 09;

PORT LOUIS - Up to 250,000 children are at risk of malnutrition and disease in southern Madagascar as a political crisis and tropical cyclones exacerbate severe food shortages, the UN children agency said.

UNICEF said that the rains had failed again in the Indian Ocean island's southern region, devastating the last harvest and reducing the amount of safe water available for human consumption.

"By the end of 2008, almost 400,000 people were living in food-insecure districts across Madagascar. The situation has only worsened since. Up to a quarter-million children are now reportedly at risk of disease and malnutrition," it said.

Earlier this week, aid agencies warned that the world's fourth largest island was on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe.

Acute malnutrition rates have reached serious levels in five districts in Madagascar, the UN agency said in a report late on Friday.

Donors including the United States and Norway, who suspended development aid to the island after ousted leader Marc Ravalomanana quit power under pressure from the army, have maintained emergency funding.

"My daughter is hungry. We only eat Raketa (Cactus fruit) as we have nothing else," mother-of-four Zefita told UNICEF after walking 10 kms (6 miles) to the nearest health clinic with her malnourished child.

"If only it was raining, we could cultivate maize or potatoes, but now we cannot do anything," she said.

Industrial giant Daewoo sparked nationwide anger last year when it announced it had a deal to lease more than a million hectares of Malagasy farmland to safeguard South Korea's food-security.

New incumbent Andry Rajoelina, a onetime disc-jockey with little political experience beyond nearly two years as mayor of the capital immediately cancelled the land deal on taking power.

Aid groups fear food insecurity will worsen in coming months as the lack of rain delays the next harvest by three months and reduces it by up to 40 percent.

Earlier this month, the United Nations put out an emergency appeal for $35.7 million.

The majority of Madagascar's 20 million people live on less than a dollar a day despite a period of sustained economic growth under Ravalomanana's seven-year rule during which he welcomed major foreign companies investing in the island's booming oil and mineral sectors.

(Writing by Richard Lough)

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Cyclones, Politics To Hurt Madagascar Vanilla

Fanja Saholiarisoa, PlanetArk 27 Apr 09;

ANTANANARIVO - Madagascar's vanilla producers expect that a double hit from destructive cyclones and a deadly political crisis will cut output of the food flavouring and hurt buyers' confidence during the 2009-2010 season.

Three tropical cyclones have torn across the Indian Ocean island since January damaging crops while producers fear that a power struggle will prompt importers to buy from elsewhere.

Vanilla is a key source of foreign exchange for Madagascar -- the world's leading exporter -- earning the nation an estimated $148 million in 2006. The country expects to ship 1,500 tonnes this year compared with 1,800 tonnes last year.

"The fall in foreseen exports this year is directly linked to the consecutive cyclones which destroyed 15 to 20 percent of the vanilla crop," said Jeannot Ranjanoro, president of the National Grouping of Vanilla Exporters (NGVE).

Local industry leaders say Madagascar supplies 80 percent of the world's vanilla while the United Nations said the island met 60-75 percent of the global market between 1990 and 2005.

Vanilla prices peaked at $600 per kg in 2003-04 but have fallen since, according to a UN report. Last year, it sold at around $19-20 per kg.

Earlier this month, cyclone Jade hit Madagascar's north-east. The storm killed 15 people and damaged up to 63 percent of the vanilla and coffee crops in the single province of Antalaha, according to the emergency management office.

Ranjanoro said that Madagascar's lost crop was unlikely to affect prices on the world market.

One reason for that was a surplus of supply last year, said Nissi Randriamanana, manager of Trimeta sales, a private company able to cure and export more than 500 tonnes per year.

"There remains 2,500 tonnes of vanilla left over from last year in the hands of traders," he told Reuters. Of that, an estimated 700 tonnes is Malagasy vanilla.

POLITICAL CRISIS

Randriamanana said the surplus may allow producers to ride out the nation's leadership struggle between ousted leader Marc Ravalomanana and Africa's youngest president, Andry Rajoelina.

"Buyers are turning to these traders (holding surplus stocks) while waiting for the situation on the island to calm down," said Randriamanana, warning that a protracted crisis would dent the country's reputation.

Rajoelina took power last month after weeks of civil unrest killed 135 people. Ravalomanana maintains he is still head of state and has called for elections before the end of 2009.

"If the crisis continues, we risk foreign buyers losing confidence in Madagascar," Randriamanana said.

Players say that there is a four-month window of opportunity for stability to be restored. "Exportable vanilla will not be ready for the next four to six months," said Andreas Claude, a local business leader in the vanilla-producing province of Sava.

The harvest of green vanilla beans runs between July and September, and curing the beans takes another three months.

(Writing by Richard Lough; Editing by Jack Kimball and Keiron Henderson)

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UK funds sea acidification study

Roger Harrabin, BBC News 28 Apr 09;

The UK government has launched an £11m ($16m) five-year research programme into ocean acidification.

Researchers say seas are becoming more acidic as a result of CO2 from human activities being absorbed by seawater, which alters the oceans' chemistry.

Ministers say acidification of the oceans will be one of the major environmental concerns of this century.

The study will focus on the Atlantic, Antarctic and Arctic oceans and assess how marine ecosystems are affected.

The programme, co-funded by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and the Natural Environment Research Council (Nerc), will also examine the implications for people and the economy.



"Ocean acidification will be one of the biggest environmental concerns of this century, with major and far-reaching impacts," said Nature and Marine Environment Minister Huw Irranca-Davies.

"We need to understand much more about the scale and nature of the effect CO2 is having on our oceans and marine life."

Scientists say ocean acidity has increased 30% since the Industrial Revolution, the fastest change in ocean chemistry for at least 65 million years.

Researchers warn that it could result in a massive extinction of life in the seas.

Creatures that form alkaline shells are likely to be particularly affected and coral reefs may begin to crumble before the end of the century.

The problem has only recently hit the headlines, so research is still in its infancy.

US scientists are among the leaders in this new field, and the Obama administration says it is very concerned about acidification.

The nation's Congress has also recently approved funds for a major research programme.

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Oceans becoming acidic 'at fastest rate for 65 million years'

The oceans are becoming more acidic at a faster rate than for 65 million years as a result of climate change, a report warns.
The Telegraph 27 Apr 09;

The Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP) report card said the increasing acidity of the oceans caused by carbon dioxide could affect the climate further and hit wildlife.

The "ecosystem linkages" report, which looked at the links between different impacts of climate change, also said there had been large reductions in Arctic sea ice and declines in some seabirds as a result of changes to the seas around the UK.

It warned climate change could increase the likelihood of non-native species thriving in the UK's marine environment, while coastal communities faced threats such as flooding and opportunities including tourism in the future.

The different impacts of a changing climate on our seas are magnified because of their links to one another, the report said, and a "bigger picture" approach is needed to address the problems.

The oceans are a huge store of carbon dioxide, which dissolves in the water, and therefore play a significant role in maintaining stability in the climate.

The absorption of more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as a result of higher emissions makes the seas more acidic, and in the last 200 years ocean acidity has increased by 30%.

The increase is at a rate much faster than any time in the past 65 million years, the report warned.

The increase in CO2 in the ocean will lead to a slowdown in its ability to absorb the greenhouse gas, leaving more in the atmosphere.

Rising acidity will also hit marine creatures including plankton and shellfish, damaging their ability to grow and reproduce, and in the cases of organisms such as corals reduce their capacity to build shells.

The report said that in the UK, the growing acidity could hit multi-million pound fisheries and aquaculture, while the global value of corals - through food, tourism and shore protection - has been estimated at some 30 billion US dollars (£21 billion).

UK overseas territories are among those which could be affected by threats to corals.

In response to the threat, the Government today announced an £11 million, five-year project to investigate the effects of acidification on biodiversity, habitats, species and wider economic and social impacts in the north east Atlantic, Antarctic and Arctic oceans.

The report also warned that Arctic sea-ice was disappearing, with impacts on ecosystems, the climate, shipping routes and access to oil and gas under the Arctic.

In the last decade there has been a 35% decrease in summer sea ice, and a 15% reduction in winter ice cover, leading to changes in habitats and wildlife which could have knock-on effects in the UK.

The waters around the UK have also seen changes in the food chain in recent years, including shifts in plankton and fish distribution as a result of warming seas.

The changes have contributed to declines in species such as sandeels, which have hit seabirds including terns, black-legged kittiwakes and skuas - a trend which could continue as the seas warm.

But non-native species may find it easier to establish themselves in UK waters as a result of warming temperatures, leading to impacts on aquaculture such as poisoning of farmed animals and clogging of nets.

Coastal economies and communities face a whole range of challenges, including declines in traditional fisheries and increased flood and erosion risks, as well as opportunities including new fisheries and tourism, the study said.

The report was produced by five groups of experts for the MCCIP, a coalition of scientists, the Government and devolved administrations, agencies and charities.

Environment Minister Huw Irranca-Davies said: "Climate change is happening now, and its impact on the marine environment affects all of us.

"The fight against climate change and protection of the natural environment are inextricably linked, and we are witnessing unprecedented effects on our seas."

And he said: "Ocean acidification will be one of the biggest environmental concerns of this century, with major and far-reaching impacts.

"We need to understand much more about the scale and nature of the effect CO2 is having on our oceans and marine life."

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Arctic CO2 levels growing at an 'unprecedented rate', say scientists

Figures from a measuring station in northern Norway show that CO2 levels are increasing by 2-3 parts per million every year
John Vidal, guardian.co.uk 27 Apr 09;

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has reached a record high, according to the latest figures released by an internationally regarded measuring station in the Arctic.

The measurements suggest that the main greenhouse gas is continuing to increase in the atmosphere at an alarming rate despite the downturn in dip in the rate of increase of the global economy.

Levels of the gas at the Zeppelin research station on Svalbard, northern Norway, last week peaked at over 397 parts per million (ppm), an increase of more than 2.5ppm on 2008. They have since begun to reduce and today stand at 393.7ppm. Prior to the industrial revolution, CO2 levels were around 280ppm.

CO2 levels recorded in Svalbard tend to be higher than the global average, but scientists said the CO2 level they had measured was unprecedented even for that location. "These are the highest figures collected in 50m years," said Johan Strom, professor of atmospheric physics at the government-funded Norwegian Polar Institute, which collected the data.

"It is not the level of CO2 that is the problem, because the earth will adapt. What is very worrying is the speed of change. Levels [here] are now increasing 2-3ppm a year.

"The rate of increase is much faster than only 10-20 years ago. You can almost see the changes taking place. Never before have CO2 levels increased so fast," he said.

The global annual mean growth rate for 2007 was 2.14ppm – the fourth year in the past six to see an annual rise greater than 2ppm. From 1970 to 2000, the concentration rose by about 1.5ppm each year, but since 2000 it has risen to an average 2.1ppm.

"There can be week-to-week or day-to-day variability," said Thomas Conway, research chemist at US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Earth Systems research lab in Boulder, Colorado. But he said a 2.5ppm annual increase was "on the high end".

"This is part of an overall pattern of CO2 increasing in the atmosphere. Unless the burning of fossil fuels decreases, then the CO2 will not decrease. And if the rate of fossil fuel burning increases, so will the rate of CO2 increases," he added.

"These are quite large numbers. It sounds like this is an Arctic phenomenon," said Dr Vicky Pope, head of climate change advice at the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter. "It fits with the general increase in emissions. You would expect the concentrations of CO2 to grow."

Last week, NOAA released preliminary figures for its annual greenhouse gas index, which incorporates data from 60 sites around the world – including Zeppelin. Total global CO2 concentration topped 386ppm. In 2008 the global average increased by 2.1ppm, slightly less than the 2.2ppm increase in 2007. NOAA's primary CO2 measurement station is Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.

CO2 levels are typically higher in the Arctic than the global average because there is more landmass and human activity in the northern hemisphere. As a result, human emissions from factories and transport tend to lead to higher CO2 levels here.

The figures will concern policy-makers ahead of global talks on a successor to the Kyoto Protocol in December. Climate scientists advise that the world must prevent CO2 levels from rising higher than around 450ppm CO2 equivalent (a measure of global warming potential that incorporates other gasses such as methane and is higher than the measured CO2 levels) to avoid a 2C increase on preindustrial global average temperature.

The Zeppelin research station is situated on a mountain top approximately 1100km from the North Pole. The closest town, Ny Alesund, is the northernmost human settlement in the world, mainly inhabited by research scientists. Although the research station is far from major sources of human pollution, atmospheric circulation brings air from Europe and North America into the Arctic region.

"There is less human influence here and most of the pollution comes straight here at this time of the year. From now on levels will reduce until the end of August when they will pick back up," said Strom.

"It is clearly the effect of human activity. Even if we stopped emitting now, we would have to live with this ... we will have to live with it for thousands of years, but that does not mean we should do nothing."

The figures come as Al Gore hosts a conference in Tromso, northern Norway, on melting arctic ice. Last week he told the US senate committee on energy and commerce that the arctic is now melting at an "unprecedented" rate.

"The most recent 11 summers have all experienced melting greater than the average 35 year time series," he said.

He is expected to warn ministers in polar regions that the arctic ice cap may totally disappear in as little as five years if nothing is done to curb greenhouse emissions.

Earlier this month, US scientists reported that annually forming sea in the Arctic region covered roughly the same area as in previous years, but had significantly thinned.

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How Does Climate Change Hit GDP?

PlanetArk 28 Apr 09;

April 27 - Southeast Asia faces one of the world's highest climate change bills, the Asian Development Bank said on Monday, unless the region adapts to climate change and joins the rest of the world in cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

The destructive effects of higher temperatures, rising seas and fierce storms are likely to knock more off its gross domestic product (GDP) than the current financial crisis, the ADB said in a report.

The report, "The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review", states that climate change could cost six percent of GDP in four countries, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam by the end of this century.

Here are some questions and answers about the climate change economics behind the region's first such report.

WHAT'S THE CLIMATE CHANGE-GDP CONNECTION?

The intense floods, droughts, landslides and storms that have lashed Southeast Asia in recent years have taken chunks out of its GDP earnings, by damaging property, assets, and human life.

With worsening climate change, the ADB expects rice production to dramatically decline, and rising sea levels to disrupt coastal economies by forcing millions to relocate from the seaside and islands.

Health services will also be stretched, and economic productivity lost, as more people die from thermal stress, malaria, dengue and other diseases.

Greenhouse gas emissions, the cocktail of gases including carbon dioxide (CO2) that are key contributors to climate change, tend to match GDP because many are produced through industrial activity.

A 3.5 percent fall in Britain's GDP, for example, leads to about a 3.15 percent fall in CO2 emissions, according to calculations by Cambridge Econometrics. The current recession would help to cut carbon emissions by around six percent over 2009-10, it estimates.

HOW IS FUTURE, CLIMATE-RELATED, GDP-LOSS CALCULATED?

Using data from the Third Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (IPCC), economists calculate the impact of expected temperature rises on key markets (such as agriculture and forestry in Southeast Asia's case) and the non-market impact on health and ecosystems.

Geographical factors and per-capita income are also fed into the models, as climate change is expected to hit certain low-lying areas, and the poor, first and hardest.

These factors helped push Southeast Asia's climate bill to the top. About 80 percent of its 563 million people live within 100 kilometres of the coast and more than 200 million people live on less than $2-a-day.

They also punch in the numbers for climate catastrophes, such as the melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet, that would jolt more linear predictions out of whack, to give a range of best and worst-case scenarios.

HOW DOES THIS MAKE CLIMATE CHANGE A "MARKET FAILURE"?

Market success, in the form of GDP growth, is leading to a wide-range of environmental failures related to climate change which undermine future economic growth.

As private polluters who damage the public global climate by emitting greenhouse gases have generally not paid for the damage they cause, ex-World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern, author of the 2006 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, suggested climate change may be the greatest, most wide-ranging market failure ever.

He warned that without an annual investment of one percent of global GDP a year to offset the worst climate effects, up to 20 percent of global GDP would be jeopardised. In 2008 he upped the figure to two percent of GDP, after sharper than expected emissions growth.

HOW MUCH MONEY IS NEEDED TO AVERT THE WORST?

Estimates vary. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has put adaptation costs in the agriculture, coastal, forestry, fisheries, health, infrastructure, and water supply sectors at between $44 billion to $166 billion per year by 2030 globally. For developing nations, it is $28 billion to $67 billion.

The United Nations Development Programme projects even higher adaptation costs for developing countries, between $86 billion to $109 billion per year by 2015.

The ADB says Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam need an average of $5 billion a year by 2020 to protect agriculture and coastal zones, through building sea walls and developing drought- and heat-resistant crops.

It says by 2060 the annual benefit of avoided damage from climate change is likely to exceed the annual cost.

(Writing by Gillian Murdoch; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)

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Greenhouse Gas Goals For Major Nations

PlanetArk 28 Apr 09;

April 27 - The major nations meeting for discussions on climate change in Washington on Monday and Tuesday each have different goals for curbs on greenhouse gas emissions.

China, the United States, the European Union, Russia and India are top world emitters. Targets they set will go a long way to decide the ambition of a new UN deal to fight global warming due to be agreed in Copenhagen in December.

Rich nations' plans cluster around cuts of roughly 15 percent below current levels by 2020. Many developing nations are trying to slow the rise of emissions, without caps that they say would stifle economic growth and their drive to end poverty.

DEVELOPED NATIONS

UNITED STATES - President Barack Obama favours cutting US emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 -- about 15 percent below recent levels -- and by 80 percent below 1990 by 2050.

EUROPEAN UNION - European Union leaders agreed in December to cut emissions 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, a cut of about 14 percent from recent levels. EU leaders want rich countries to aim to reduce emissions by 60 to 80 percent by 2050 from 1990 levels.

-- Britain has committed to a legally binding target to cut greenhouse gases by 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.

-- Germany plans to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 40 percent by 2020 compared to 1990 levels.

RUSSIA - Has not yet set a 2020 goal.

JAPAN - Plans to outline 2020 cuts by June. The opposition Democratic Party has promised to cut emissions by 25 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 if it wins an election due by October.

CANADA - Aims to cut emissions by 20 percent below 2006 levels by 2020 and envisages cuts of 60 to 70 percent below 2006 by 2050. Emissions are now more than 20 percent above 1990 levels.

AUSTRALIA - Aims to cut emissions by 5 percent below 2000 levels by 2020 and by 15 percent below 2000 if there is a strong UN pact.

DEVELOPING NATIONS

CHINA - A 2006-10 plan aims to reduce energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product by 20 percent, curbing the rise of greenhouse gas emissions. Beijing also plans to quadruple gross domestic product between 2001 and 2020 while only doubling energy use.

INDIA - New Delhi says priority must go to economic growth to end poverty while shifting to clean energies, led by solar power. A climate plan last June set no greenhouse caps but said per capita emissions will never exceed those of rich nations.

BRAZIL - Plans measures including halving Amazon deforestation over 10 years to avert 4.8 billion tonnes of emissions of carbon dioxide, energy conservation and sustaining the share of renewable energies. Hydropower alone accounts for 77 percent of electricity generation.

INTERNATIONAL TARGETS

THE KYOTO PROTOCOL - Binds industrialized nations except the United States to cut emissions on average by at least 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-12.

GROUP OF EIGHT - Leading industrial nations agreed at a G8 summit in Japan in July 2008 to a "vision" of cutting world emissions of greenhouse gases by 50 percent by 2050.

GLOBAL - About 190 nations agreed last year to work out a new treaty by the end of 2009 to succeed Kyoto, comprising deeper emissions cuts by rich nations and action by poor countries to slow their rising emissions.

(Compiled by Alister Doyle, Nina Chestney, Gerard Wynn and Risa Maeda; Editing by Ralph Boulton)

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