Australia opposition proposes rival carbon scheme

James Grubel, Reuters 10 Aug 09;

CANBERRA (Reuters) - Australia's opposition rolled out what it said was a cheaper and greener plan to cut carbon emissions on Monday, just days before it was expected to vote down the government's stalled carbon trade legislation.

Climate Change Minister Penny Wong dismissed the scheme as a "mongrel" offshoot of a failed Canadian plan, and said the government was determined to pass its own emissions trading scheme (ETS), which is being watched around the world in the lead up to December's global climate talks in Copenhagen.

Laws for an emissions trading scheme (ETS) are set to be defeated in parliament's upper house Senate on Thursday, and could become a trigger for an early election if the opposition and minor parties reject the plan a second time later this year.

Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull, who is struggling in the polls and wants to avoid an early election, on Monday proposed a plan that would promise a carbon emissions reduction of 10 percent by 2020, based on 2000 levels.

That target, which hasn't yet been endorsed by his party, would put one of the world's most carbon-intensive economies at the low end of global efforts to roll back climate change.

The government is fighting to push through its own ETS scheme that includes a pledge to cut emissions by at least 5 percent -- or as much as 25 percent if other countries take equally firm action -- but needs an extra seven votes to pass its plan through a hostile Senate, which appears unlikely.

"We will press on with this reform for as long as we have to," Wong told the National Press Club. "One way or the other, we are going to get this through."

Rudd is due to face elections in late 2010, but could have the option of a poll in early 2010 if the Senate continues to block the ETS laws. The latest opinion polls show Rudd well ahead of the opposition, which is divided over climate policy.

RENEWABLE ENERGY

Under Turnbull's plan, Australia's coal industry and major export industries would receive full protection from the cost of purchasing carbon permits, compared to up 95 percent of free permits for major polluters under the government scheme.

Turnbull's scheme would see only 30 percent of Australian carbon permits auctioned, compared to 70 percent of permits auctioned under the government's plan.

"It shows with relatively modest changes, the proposed emissions trading scheme can be made far less harmful to jobs, investments, regions and the Australian economy," Turnbull said.

But Wong said Turnbull's proposals were a copy of a failed Canadian plan to set up a baseline for carbon emissions.

"It is not a credible alternative, it is a smokescreen," Wong said. "Rehashing the failed Canadian experiment puts at risk Australia's ability to meet its national targets."

Australia wants carbon trading to start in July 2011. Companies would have to buy permits for every tonne of pollution they produce, putting a price on emissions and providing a financial incentive to clean up pollution.

Meanwhile, Wong again ruled out separating laws for a 20 percent target for renewable energy from the ETS laws.

The renewable energy laws have wide political support, but remain locked in the Senate because compensation measures are linked to carbon trade laws. The Clean Energy Council said delays are costing business A$2 million ($1.7 million) a week.

The opposition and the Greens have said they would use their numbers in the Senate to remove the link between the two sets of laws, so the renewable energy target could pass, but Wong on Monday said the government wanted to keep the link.

"We need both. Australia needs both," Wong said.

Australia, the world's largest coal exporter, accounts for 1.5 percent of global emissions, but is one of the largest per-capita emitters due to a reliance on coal for 80 percent of electricity generation.

($1=A$1.20)

(Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

SCENARIOS: Possible outcomes for Australian carbon trade laws
Reuters 10 Aug 09;

CANBERRA (Reuters) - Australia's carbon trading laws are set to be defeated in the Senate this week, with conservatives, Greens and two independent lawmakers in rare agreement to oppose it.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's government needs seven more votes to pass the 11 bills through the Senate. If the laws are rejected twice, Rudd could call a snap election.

Here are some possible outcomes for the government.

HOLD FIRM, SET UP ELECTION TRIGGER (Likely)

If the government forces a vote in the Senate on Thursday, the laws in their current form will fail. If the Senate blocks or rejects the laws a second time, after an interval of three months, it will hand Rudd a trigger for a possible snap election. Rudd, who is well ahead in opinion polls, has repeatedly said he does not want an early election, but refuses to rule out the option.

Rudd could call a snap election in early 2010 and current opinion polls suggest he would win with an increased majority. He could then pass the carbon trade laws through a joint sitting of the lower house and the Senate to clear the political deadlock. The danger for Rudd is that while the carbon laws would pass a joint sitting, a future Senate could be more unpredictable with increased numbers of Greens and independents.

DEAL WITH OPPOSITION (Unlikely)

The government's best hope of passing the laws is to get the opposition, which has the largest voting bloc in the Senate, to change its stand and support the laws. The opposition wants to postpone a vote on the laws until after global climate talks in Copenhagen in December. But political pressure on the opposition is growing, and Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull's poll rating has collapsed.

Turnbull now wants to avoid forcing an early election on the carbon trade laws and has proposed negotiations on amendments.

The government is refusing to negotiate, but might be willing to make some concessions later in the year to get its laws passed ahead of the Copenhagen climate talks.

DEAL WITH GREENS, INDEPENDENTS (Unlikely)

The government's only other hope of passing the laws is to negotiate with the five Greens and two independents, who themselves pull in different directions. The Greens will only support the plan if the government makes a stronger commitment to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Independent Nick Xenophon also wants stronger emissions targets. The final independent, Steve Fielding, has said he does not believe human activity is responsible for global warming, and he is unlikely to support the legislation.

RENEWABLE TARGET SPLIT (Likely)

The conservatives and five Green senators also want to split off separate Renewable Energy Target laws, tied to the carbon trade scheme by the government through promised industry compensation for electricity generators.

The laws set a renewable energy target of 20 percent by 2020. The government joined the two pieces of legislation to pile more political pressure on Turnbull's conservatives.

The government could reject splitting the bills in the lower house where it dominates, even if the Senate decides to separate the two issues. But Wong and Rudd may be willing to accept the split next week, to unlock around $22 billion in planned solar and wind energy investment, once the carbon trade legislation is dealt with.

(Reporting by Rob Taylor; Editing by James Grubel and David Fogarty)

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New Zealand sets 10-20 percent CO2 cut by 2020 target

Adrian Bathgate, Reuters 10 Aug 09;

WELLINGTON (Reuters) - New Zealand set itself a goal on Monday to cut carbon emissions by between 10 and 20 percent by 2020, holding off setting a hard target until a broader global climate pact now under negotiation takes shape.

Business groups said it was a sensible range -- broadly in line with major emitters like Japan and the United States, as well as neighboring Australia -- but environmentalists said it was not tough enough to tackle climate change.

While New Zealand's emissions comprise less than 0.5 percent of mankind's greenhouse gas pollution, it is one of fewer than 40 rich nations bound by the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol to curb emissions and thus has an important role in helping shape the debate of a post-Kyoto deal due to be agreed at year's end in Copenhagen.

"This target is internationally credible and both environmentally and economically responsible," Climate Change Minister Nick Smith said in a statement.

"It is an ambitious but achievable goal," he said, adding the target would be achieved through domestic emission reductions, the storage of carbon in forests and the purchase of emission reductions from other countries.

New Zealand is also being closely watched since it is one of a handful of nations outside Europe trying to develop a national emissions trading scheme, a key measure in meeting its target and something it hopes to have in place by the end of this year.

A parliamentary committee that has been reviewing a package of laws on the proposed trading scheme is expected to release its report within a few weeks. A similar set of bills in Australia, which has said it could cut emissions by as much as 25 percent, has been stalled by political opposition.

"USEFUL FIRST STEP"

New Zealand faces a trickier task than most, with emissions already far above its current U.N. target and because about half of its greenhouse gas pollution comes from agriculture, which in turn provides about half its $29 billion in annual export earnings.

Emissions increased 24 percent from 1990 to 2008. Under Kyoto, its greenhouse gas emissions are supposed to show no increase from 1990 levels during the 2008-12 Kyoto period.

Smith made no mention of any concessions for agriculture, which is responsible for large amounts of methane emissions. Methane is about 20 times more powerful a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

Poorer states want rich nations to agree to 2020 emissions cuts of 25-40 percent below 1990 levels. But most rich nations say this range is too tough to meet.

"The 2020 emissions targets announced today represented a useful first step in the current international negotiations for a post-2012 climate change agreement," said Jonathan Boston, director of the Institute of Policy Studies at Victoria University of Wellington.

But he said New Zealand and many other developed countries would need take responsibility for reductions in emissions by 2020 of more than 20 percent to try to avoid the worst of the impacts from global warming.

"It is to be hoped that the 10-20 percent target range is not the government's final position."

Greenpeace said the 10-20 percent range would mean New Zealand was not a constructive player at the Copenhagen meeting.

However, lobby group Business NZ said the target was a sensible balance, given New Zealand's unique status as a developed but agriculture-reliant economy.

($1 = NZ$1.49)

(Editing by David Fogarty)

FACTBOX: New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions profile
Adrian Bathgate, Reuters 10 Aug 09;

WELLINGTON (Reuters) - New Zealand said on Monday it will aim to cut its carbon emissions between 10 and 20 percent by 2020 from 1990 levels.

The exact size of reductions will depend on the target adopted by developed countries during negotiations on a broader global climate pact due to be finalized in the Danish capital later this year.

New Zealand's total emissions increased by 24 percent from 1990 to 2008, which the government had previously said would make setting a target difficult.

NEW ZEALAND EMISSIONS BREAKDOWN AS AT 2006

AGRICULTURE - 48 PERCENT: Primarily methane emissions from cattle and sheep, which number about 10 million and 33 million respectively. New Zealand is unique among developed countries for having such a high proportion of emissions from agriculture, with the average for developed countries about 12 percent.

ENERGY - 44 PERCENT: Mainly transport (19 percent) and electricity generation (11 percent) and manufacturing (7 percent). Transport is mostly made up from burning fuel for cars and trucks while electricity generation is from power stations fueled mostly by gas and coal.

INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES - 5 PERCENT: The bulk of this comes from the production of iron, steel and aluminum.

WASTE - 2 PERCENT

RENEWABLES: The country relies on hydro, geothermal and wind power to supply more than 60 percent of the nation's electricity.

Sources: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, New Zealand government

(Editing by David Fogarty)

New Zealand sets greenhouse gas reduction at 10-20 pct
Yahoo News 10 Aug 09;

WELLINGTON (AFP) – New Zealand has set a target of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by between 10 and 20 percent from 1990 levels, the government announced Monday, according to press reports.

The target, which falls short of demands by environmentalists, would be met by reducing domestic emissions, expanding forests and buying emission reductions from other nations.

Prime Minister John Key said the country had a long way to go if it was to fulfill the pledge.

"It seeks to balance our economic opportunities with our environmental responsibility," he said, in comments reported by the New Zealand Press Association.

"The target is going to be a big ask for New Zealand because our gross emissions are already 24 per cent above our 1990 levels," Key said.

The announcement forms part of Wellington's bargaining position in talks scheduled for the end of the year in Copenhagen, when nations will meet to hammer out a successor to the Kyoto protocol.

New Zealand will cut its emissions by 10 percent if other developed nations sign a comprehensive treaty and by 20 percent if developing countries also get on board.

Environmental group Greenpeace has been campaigning for New Zealand to slash its emissions by 40 percent, but Key rejected this call, saying the economic and social cost would be unacceptable.

Business groups had urged the government to set a target below 10 percent, while opposition parties said the announcement did not go far enough.

Green Party MP Jeanette Fitzsimons said more needed to be done before the year-end international meeting.

"Our opening bid is too low. Hopefully, New Zealanders will convince the government to up its game as the negotiations progress towards Copenhagen. This debate has only just begun, and it's time we had a real conversation about what is possible," she said.

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Global 2008 CO2 emissions rose 2 percent: German institute

Reuters 10 Aug 09;

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Global carbon dioxide emissions in 2008 rose 1.94 percent year-on-year to 31.5 billion metric tons, German renewable energy industry institute IWR said on Monday, based on official information and its own research.

The private institute, which is based in Muenster and advises German ministries, said climate-harming carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rose for the tenth year in succession, running counter to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol aimed at trying to cut CO2 emissions by 5.2 percent by 2012.

IWR recommends linking measured emissions to individual countries' renewable energy investment commitments.

It said if negotiators adopted this approach, it could stabilize overall fossil fuels consumption and related CO2 emissions.

"Kyoto is not working out," said IWR Managing Director Norbert Allnoch. Global emissions are 40 percent above those in 1990, the basis year for the treaty.

"(Our recommendation) is a better approach than trying to persuade countries to curb their industrial activities, which inevitably creates hostility and bickering over who should be doing what to protect the climate," he said.

The approach would involve linking the CO2 output of each of the 65 countries and some other regions to investments in renewable energy industries such as wind, solar or biofuels.

Some 120 billion euros ($170.3 billion) were invested in renewables in 2008, IWR said.

It said this should at least be quadrupled to total around 500 billion euros a year for the world to reverse the runaway trend in CO2 pollution.

"The higher the CO2 emissions, the higher the renewables investment in each country should be," Allnoch said.

Carbon dioxide emissions from heavy industry participating in the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme fell 3.1 percent last year compared with 2007, the EU's executive Commission said in mid-May.

This was due to falling industrial output from the global economic slowdown, it said.

(Reporting by Vera Eckert; editing by Nina Chestney and James Jukwey)

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Time running out for December climate pact: U.N.

Alister Doyle, Reuters 10 Aug 09;

BONN, Germany (Reuters) - About 180 nations met for U.N. climate talks on Monday amid warnings that time was running out for them to reach agreement on a hugely complex pact, due for completion at the end of the year.

About 2,400 delegates at the Aug 10-14 negotiations in Bonn will try to shorten a draft text, outlining options for combating global warming, that has swollen to about 200 pages from 50 just a few months ago.

"Time is running out," Yvo de Boer, head of the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat, told Reuters in a conference hall where a large clock is ticking down the 118 days left until a meeting of environment ministers in Copenhagen in December.

"The challenge of this session is to narrow (the) text down," he said. "We have an enormous amount of ground to cover."

The Bonn meeting, the third in Germany this year, was added because of scant progress with the deadline looming. After Bonn, talks before Copenhagen are in Bangkok from September 28-October 9 and in Barcelona, Spain, from November 2-6.

The 200-page text outlines ideas such as ways to register curbs on greenhouse gas emissions by developing nations, how to help the poor adapt to climate change, ways to protect forests and how to raise billions of dollars in new finance.

Among the most important issues for Bonn was "how rich countries are going to show leadership to reduce their emissions," de Boer said.

Leaders of the Group of Eight industrialized nations agreed in Italy last month to cut emissions by 80 percent by 2050 and limit global warming to no more than a two degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) rise over pre-industrial times."

NOT ON 2 CELSIUS TRACK

"We are absolutely not on track" to stay below two degrees Celsius, de Boer said.

Temperatures have risen by 0.7 Celsius in the past century and the U.N. Climate Panel projects further rises that will spur heatwaves, droughts, floods, and raise world sea levels.

New Zealand on Monday set a goal of cutting carbon emissions by between 10 and 20 percent by 2020 below 1990 levels, but said the targets hinged on goals by other nations in Copenhagen.

"It's a long way below the levels of ambition needed," said Kim Carstensen, leader of the WWF environment group's global climate initiative, said of New Zealand's goal.

Developing nations such as China and India want the rich to cut by at least 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. Average cuts outlined so far work out at about 10-14 percent.

Michael Zammit Cutajar, chairing talks on the 200-page text, said that roughly 30 pages would be a goal for the document's length by the end of the meeting in Bangkok.

De Boer said that there was still a willingness to reach an agreement despite recession that has made many countries unwilling to do more to cut emissions. "There's still a huge political will to come to an agreement in Copenhagen," he said.

Developing nations also said it was vital to have more talks on the financing of any deal in Copenhagen. African nations, for instance, say that at least $267 billion a year will be needed by 2020 to help the poor combat climate change.

With time pressing, Elliot Diringer of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change said Copenhagen would, at best, agree a framework for a deal with many details to be filled in later.

And he said it was "highly unlikely" that the U.S. Congress would agree on a climate bill by Copenhagen.

-- For Reuters latest environment blogs click on: blogs.reuters.com/environment/

(Editing by Jon Boyle)

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Best of our wild blogs: 10 Aug 09

Fireworks and balloons: harmless?
from wild shores of singapore

Long-tailed macaque @ Bishan Park feeding on myna
from Nature Spies

St. John's Island - "This type of seaweed sometimes can find slug" from Singapore Nature and Half a Bunny and the Salmon of Doubt by kungfubunny and colourful clouds

The Other Side of St. John's Island
from wild shores of singapore and secret mangroves of St. John's

Sinking mud at Pasir Ris Part I
from God's wonderful creation and Half a Bunny and the Salmon of Doubt

No Uncle, I Am Not Waiting For...
from colourful clouds

Sunbird and spittlebug
from Bird Ecology Study Group

Monday Morgue: 10th August 2009
from The Lazy Lizard's Tales

Sprawl! Is Earth Becoming a Planet of SuperCities?
from The Daily Galaxy: News from Planet Earth & Beyond

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Ensuring Singapore stays green

Acting as an unofficial watchdog, the Nature Society keeps a close eye on Singapore's environment
Ong Dai Lin, The New Paper 10 Aug 09;

WHEN a group of bird lovers came across a mangrove area rich in migratory birds in 1986 and found out that the land was scheduled for development, they launched a campaign to save it.

After three years, the environmentalists from the Malayan Nature Society succeeded in getting the bird sanctuary preserved. The place is known today as Sungei Buloh Nature Park.

That success fuelled the passion of some members to do more for the environment; they broke away and formed the Nature Society (Singapore) in 1991.

"The society's main focus is on the natural environment and the wildlife that is still extant in Singapore, and in nature conservation," Dr Ho Hua Chew, a former chairman of its Conservation Committee told Today. "We see our role in terms of advocacy and also as watchdog."

The 1,500-member society not only submit proposals for the conservation of green areas in Singapore, it also monitors and gives feedback on major developments like the building of Resorts World at Sentosa.

In 1992, it successfully lobbied against the building of a golf course at the Lower Pierce Forest. The society also played a large role in the conservation of areas like Pulau Ubin and Chek Jawa (picture).

Going forward, there are three main areas that Singapore can do more for the environment, said Dr Ho.

First, in its plans to achieve a sustainable Singapore, the Government can pay more attention to green issues like habitat and biodiversity conservation, the fragmentation of the island's reserves, and survival programmes for endangered species. Singapore should also preserve what is left of its coral and inter-tidal eco systems.

Dr Ho, a freelance lecturer, estimated that 60 per cent of Singapore's coral have already been destroyed.

Another area: The promotion of nature appreciation and studies in schools in a systematic and significant way to inculcate in the young a love for nature. This should be an integral and regular part of the school curriculum, said Dr Ho.

How do you see the Nature Society's role in meeting these future environmental goals in Singapore?

We will provide the necessary feedback and information as to the remaining wildlife and habitat areas that need to be conserved such as Sungei Mandai and Bukit Brown. We can play a co-ordinating role in pushing these goals in conjunction with other green groups and non-government organisations. The society can promote public awareness and appreciation of these nature areas by expanding our outreach programmes.

Why is the environmental cause important to Singapore?

As a global city, our ecological footprint is huge. We have used up a lot of our territorial space for housing and industries. We also depend on other countries for our food, water, timber and other needs. So, we are far from being sustainable in our development. We need to face these facts and do more for the environment by cutting down drastically our unsustainability, a paying back of what we took for us to become a global city that we are now.

What is the difference between Nature Society when it first started and what it is today? How has it evolved?

In the early years, we tended to be regarded by many people, even by our own members, as a hobby group. Today, our membership has increased a great deal and membership interest has widened.

There is also a great increase in members of the public coming to us to deal with all kinds of plants and wildlife issues or happenings they encounter - such as a new development project in their neighbourhood, trees being cut, a wild animal being injured ... This reflects the sort of standing we have in the eyes of the public.

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Malaysian Seeks Help Of Its Oil Palm Planters In Riau To Prevent Haze

Bernama 9 Aug 09;

PEKAN BARU (RIAU), Aug 9 (Bernama) -- Malaysia has requested the assistance of its three major investors in Riau to enhance their role and cooperation with local authorities in efforts to prevent peat and forest fires to reduce haze.

Natural Resources and Environment Minister Datuk Douglas Uggah Embas said the three investors, which operate a 180,000 hectare oil palm plantation here, could play an important role by ensuring their plantations were free of any bush or peat fire, and to render immediate assistance if it occurred.

He said they should also continue with the practice of zero burning in their plantations.

"This is a social responsibility which is very much appreciated by the Malaysian government and also the Indonesian government," he said at a dinner with Malaysian oil palm planters here Saturday night.

Unggah Embas is leading a delegation from his ministry for a two-day working visit here, during which he also handed over to the Indonesian government two projects, the air quality monitoring station and canal blocking, meant to prevent fire on peat soil.

Meanwhile, Malaysian Consul in Riau, Zamani Ismail, said the district governor welcomed the assistance provided by the Malaysian government in efforts to extinguish the forest firers in Riau.

"They see the assistance provided by Malaysia as an act which signifies a good friendship and neighhbourliness," he told Bernama.

Last night, Unggah Embas, who was accompanied by Indonesian Minister of Environment, Rahmat Witoelar, visited a Malaysian-aided project in Bagan Siati Api.

Unggah Embas returned to Kuala Lumpur on Sunday morning.

-- BERNAMA

Plantation firms behind forest fires in Riau: Minister
Adianto P. Simamora, The Jakarta Post 9 Aug 09;

State Minister for Environment claimed that several plantation firms operating in Riau were behind the massive forest fires that caused dangerous levels of air pollution across the province last week.

He said that his office would submit its findings on forest fires cases to national police to take legal action.

“We will file lawsuit against the plantation firms this week,” he told The Jakarta Post on Sunday.

Minister Rachmat and his Malaysian counterpart Douglas Unggah Embas flew over forest in Riau to watch the fires.

“The forest fires remain in place and uncontrollable. I see some forest fires are in the plantation firms.”

The 1999 environmental law authorizes civilian officials to investigate environmental-related violations.

Article 40 of the law says civil investigation officials may examine people accused of crimes in relation to violations.

The civilian investigators are also allowed to seek explanation and evidence from individuals or legal bodies in connection with criminal violations of the environmental laws.

The results of investigations can then be submitted to the police, who can then choose to arrest suspects based on the investigations.

Violators can face a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison and a Rp 500 million fine.

Govt to report firms burning forests to police
Adianto P. Simamora and Rizal Harahap, The Jakarta Post 10 Aug 09;

State Minister for the Environment Rachmat Witoelar has pledged to submit findings on massive forest fires in Riau to help the police take legal action against plantation companies that have showed disdain for environmental law.

Rachmat confirmed that several plantation firms operating in Riau were behind the forest fires that have disrupted flights and forced dozens of schools to close due to the thick haze from fires last week.

"We will file lawsuits against firms involved in forest fires in Riau this week," he told The Jakarta Post on Sunday.

Rachmat made the statement after his visit to Riau on Saturday when he and his Malaysian counterpart Douglas Unggah Embas flew over the forest areas to survey the impact of the fires.

"The forest fires in Riau were still at uncontrollable levels during my visit. I also saw forest fires in the plantation company areas," he said.

Environmental law allows civil investigators (PPNS) to investigate environment-related violations.

The results of these investigations are then submitted to police, who choose whether to investigate the matter further.

Violators can face a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison and a Rp 500 million (US$50, 505) fine.

A team from Rachmat's office has been in Riau investigating the case for the past week.

In February, the ministry also carried out similar investigations of forest fires in Pelalawan, Riau, but no companies or local farmers have been taken to court.

WWF Indonesia said fire hot spots in Riau reached 2,395 in July, the highest ever across the country. A hot spot is defined as a fire covering at least a 1-hectare area.

The latest forest fires have caused the repeated closure of airports in Riau due to low visibility. The air quality also reached "dangerous" levels due to thick haze and has forced schools in the area to close. The haze reportedly reached Malaysia last week.

During a meeting with Rachmat, Douglas said that his country would not complain about the "export" of haze from Indonesia.

"We understand how difficult it is to stop the fires. I myself have seen the forest fires in Riau from a helicopter. It is difficult to control the fires as they have hit huge areas," he told reporters in Riau on Saturday.

"We also have the same problem in Sarawak."

The Associated Press reported Sunday that pollution caused air quality to plunge to its worst level this year in the eastern parts of Kalimantan, where more than 1,000 hectares of wildfires - roughly the size of 1,500 soccer fields - are raging in several forests, especially near Sarawak's border with the neighboring sultanate of Brunei.

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$38bn warning on Great Barrier Reef bleaching

Adam Morton, The Age 10 Aug 09;

BLEACHING of the Great Barrier Reef will cost Australia almost $38 billion if climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions continues unchecked, an analysis has found.

A report commissioned by the Great Barrier Reef Foundation, a business-backed body investing in science, estimates half the tourists drawn to see reef coral will stay away if projections of permanent bleaching prove correct.

Foundation chairman John Schubert, the outgoing chairman of the Commonwealth Bank, said the report was a wake-up call about the economic damage that would be triggered by the loss of one of Australia's great natural assets.

The analysis by Oxford Economics assessed not only the value of the reef in tourism and fishing, but the indirect value of having a natural barrier protecting the coastline. A measure of the value people place on the reef's survival was also included.

It found coral bleaching would result in the value of the reef tumbling by 73 per cent, from $51.4 billion to $13.7 billion. The loss in the Cairns region would be more acute: 90 per cent of an estimated value of $17.9 billion.

"We are at a crossroads," Dr Schubert said. "We owe it to the communities … to all Australians and the global community to do all we can to secure the reef's future."

Life's a bleach for Barrier Reef as climate changes
Jamie Walker, The Australian 10 Aug 09;

THE Great Barrier Reef's gilt-edged importance to the Australian economy has been highlighted by new research into the potential financial cost of climate change to the world heritage-listed wonder.

British consultant Oxford Economics puts the present value of the reef at $51.4 billion - approaching $2500 for every Australian alive today - but warns that nearly four-fifths of its worth would be destroyed if the coral was totally and permanently bleached.

The study goes beyond placing a dollar figure on tourism, fishing and other commercial activities involving the reef, valuing "indirect" benefits such as its role in protecting coastal communities from storms and cyclones.

The research was commissioned by the not-for-profit Great Barrier Reef Foundation. Its chairman, John Schubert, warned yesterday that the reef was at a "crossroads" because of climate change.

"We are basically at a point where we need to take action to ensure that as much of the reef as possible can be preserved," Dr Schubert said in releasing the Oxford Economics study.

The $51.4bn figure for the reef's net worth is calculated over a century, at a preferred discount rate of 2.65 per cent to price in the opportunity cost of tying up that capital.

Oxford Economics valued the net economic benefit and profit generated by tourism on the reef at $20.2bn, with recreational fishing worth $2.8bn. Profit from commercial fishing is $1.4bn, while the so-called indirect-use value of the reef as a coastal defence absorbing up to 90per cent of the destructive force of storm-driven waves was $10bn in present value terms.

Dr Schubert said the British firm's estimate of the reef's economic worth was broadly in line with that of Australian forecaster Access Economics, though each used a different form of economic modelling.

Oxford Economics also factored in a "non-use" worth of the reef of $15.2bn, representing the potential value to Australians of, say, a future visit to the reef or of its capacity to yield breakthroughs in biomedicine and other forms of research.

In costing these economic benefits, Oxford Economics said it had been able to value the potentially catastrophic effects of coral bleaching from higher ocean temperature and levels caused by climate change.

The report found that the reef had been affected by heat-related coral bleaching six times over the past 25 years, most severely in 2002, when 60per cent of reefs within the vast marine park were hit, destroying up to a tenth of the coral.

Total and permanent bleaching of the reef would cost $37.7bn, or 73 per cent of its assessed value to the economy, presently accounting for nearly 5 per cent of Australia's gross domestic product. Tourism would be devastated, with up to half of the million or so people who visit the reef annually likely to stay away.

The Cairns region would lose 90per cent of the $17.9bn reef-related activity boosting the local economy.

"This report provides a wake-up call about the threat to one of Australia's greatest natural assets and the potential cost to Australia," Dr Schubert said.

"It also establishes for the first time the extent to which the Cairns region would be affected by a major bleaching event."

Report reveals $37b reef bleaching cost
ABC 10 Aug 09;

An international study has found that the economic cost of coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef would be $37.7 billion.

The Oxford Economics report, which values the reef at $51.4 billion, also found up to 50 per cent of tourists who would normally visit the reef would stay away from Queensland if bleaching was permanent.

The study was commissioned by the Great Barrier Reef Foundation to set an economic benchmark for the natural asset.

The foundation's John Schubert says the figures paint a disturbing picture for tourism and local communities that directly benefit from their proximity to the reef.

Managing director Judy Stewart expects the economic study will set a new standard for valuing the environment.

"I expect that the methodology will be looked at in great detail by other economists looking at other environmental assets elsewhere, as well as how we value coral reefs elsewhere," she said.

Coral bleaching report 'no surprise'
Kristy Sexton-McGrath, ABC 10 Aug 09;

The Queensland Tourism Industry Council (QTIC) says it is not surprised by a report showing the economic cost of coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef would approach $40 billion.

The Oxford Economics report also found up to 50 per cent of tourists who would normally visit the reef would stay away from Queensland, if bleaching was permanent.

QTIC chief executive Daniel Gschwind says environmental agencies and reef operators have an important role to play in protecting the reef.

"The Barrier Reef is not only a great ecological asset, it is also a very, very important part of our economic base and we have every reason to keep continuing what we are doing and that is to look after the reef, manage it well, and make sure the reef stays one of the world's best - if not the best - managed reef," he said.

Mr Gschwind says the report's findings come as no surprise.

"This study confirms that the quality of the coral, quality of the dive, quality of the snorkelling attractions is a very, very important part of what brings people to Queensland, what brings people to Australia," he said.

"We have a very strong interest in the tourism industry to continue our efforts to make sure we operate efficiently."

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Spreading Lionfish Invasion Threatens Bahamas

Ann Dornfeld, NPR 9 Aug 09;

In 1992, Hurricane Andrew smashed an aquarium tank in Florida. About a half-dozen spiny, venomous lionfish washed into the Atlantic Ocean, spawning an invasion that could kill off local industry along with the native fish.

People come to the Exuma Islands in the Bahamas to kayak between tiny, uninhabited islands and dive in the shallow, turquoise water. Above the water, the landscape looks like a pristine tropical paradise. But the same isn't true beneath the waves.

"In 2005, the first lionfish showed up, and we didn't pay much attention to it," says Oregon State University zoology professor Mark Hixon, who has studied reef fish here for almost two decades. "The next year, we saw a few more. Then in 2007 there was a population explosion. There were so many lionfish around that they were eating the fish we were studying, and we had to start studying the lionfish. There was nothing else to do."

Lionfish are native to the Indian and Pacific oceans. But in the past few years, they've spread up the Eastern seaboard and throughout the Caribbean. The Bahamas have been hit the hardest.

They're hard to miss with their red and white stripes and a tall row of venomous spines down their backs. The fan-like fins look like a lion's mane. And like lions, they are ferocious predators. Last year, Hixon co-authored a study with Mark Albins that showed a lionfish can kill three-quarters of a reef's fish population in just five weeks.

"This year we're going to see if that's gotten worse — because the number of lionfish has definitely increased in the intervening year," Hixon says.

What Stops A Lionfish?

Diving around a coral reef, Hixon shines a light under every ledge, looking for lionfish and the fish they like to eat. After a few minutes, he waves his light frantically under an overhang. A lionfish the size of a football fans the water with its huge, quilled fins. These days, the only thing unusual about spotting a lionfish in the Bahamas is seeing just one of them.

Back on the boat, Hixon is upbeat. Last year his team pulled more than a dozen lionfish off this reef. "And this year, there's just one," he says. "What that tells us is that our removals took, and lasted a whole year."

But Hixon says divers can only catch so many. So he's also studying native lionfish in the Pacific Ocean to understand what keeps their populations in check.

Parasites could be one limiting factor. Zoologist Paul Sikkel peers through a microscope at the gills of one of the lionfish Hixon's team has just caught.

"Wow! Just so clean," Sikkel exclaims. "There's nothing in there. Have a look. A local fish, you'd see a bunch of really small worms on those red gill filaments. And they squirm, so it's easy to pick them out. But there's nothing on there."

The parasites that would be swarming over a local fish aren't going near the lionfish. Sikkel says that might be one secret to the invasion.

"If you consider parasites a sort of a tax that fish have to pay, a lot of their energy gets diverted into parasites, and so a fish that doesn't have those [parasites] can develop more of its energy into its own growth and reproduction," Sikkel says.

Tourism, Fishing Fall Prey

Until marine predators or parasites learn to feed on lionfish, the best hope for slowing the spread may be humans. The fish are a delicacy in Asia, but not in the Bahamas, given the painful sting their spines can inflict. A few restaurants serve lionfish now, and there's an effort to teach Bahamians how to catch and cook them.

Lakeshia Anderson with the Bahamas Department of Fisheries says the livelihoods of many islanders depend on slowing the invasion.

"With the quantities of lionfish that we've found in our waters and the amount of food they consume, it has the potential of really collapsing our commercially important species — our fishing industry in general," Anderson says.

But that's not all. Tourism is a $5 billion-a-year industry and accounts for half the employment in the Bahamas. Anderson worries that if the lionfish continue to devour colorful reef fish, divers will vacation elsewhere.

Hixon says in some places, the damage is already done.

"I was diving on a reef I've studied since 1991," he recounts. "It was so degraded, and there were so few fish in what used to be a teeming reef, that at one point I was overcome and went to tears."

He says in the best case scenario, some natural control will kick in and lionfish will become a minor part of the Caribbean and Atlantic reef community.

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Australian orchards threatened

University of Adelaide, ScienceAlert 10 Aug 09;

Climate change and urban expansion could threaten the sustainability of horticultural industries in the Adelaide Hills unless a long-term strategy is employed, according to a senior geographer at the University of Adelaide.

Geographical and Environmental Studies lecturer Dr Douglas Bardsley has spent the past four years working in partnership with the SA Government and the Adelaide Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resources Management Board on long-term planning approaches to cope with climate change.

Together with the Department of Water, Land and Biodiversity Conservation, and Primary Industries and Resources SA, the group has developed geographical models with the Apple and Pear Growers Association to predict how warmer temperatures and urban expansion would affect their growing conditions.

"Projected warmer temperatures and rural residential development pose serious risks for industries such as the apple and pear industry, worth $25 million a year to South Australia," Dr Bardsley says. "The area available in the Hills to grow high-quality apples could shrink considerably."

The apple and pear industry is one of seven case studies undertaken since 2005 to assess the impact of global warming on South Australia's natural resources. "These projects, which consider impacts on agricultural industries, water, soil, biodiversity and coastal management in the Adelaide region, highlight the need for land use policies which respond directly to the risk of climate change."

Other key projects include looking at groundwater systems in the McLaren Vale area to ascertain how the Southern Vales would be affected long term by a drier climate and examining how changes in wind and rainfall patterns would alter soil management north of Adelaide.

Another study undertaken in conjunction with the CSIRO suggests that 14 plant species that are considered of high conservation value in SA would be particularly vulnerable to changes in temperature and rainfall.

"Years of drought in the Murray-Darling Basin have, in part, led to the collapse of important water management systems in South Australia. Projections suggest that these weather conditions are more like what we can expect in the future," Dr Bardsley says.

"The potential impacts of climate change for South Australia are likely to be negative for many stakeholders in the rural sector. It will be insufficient for us to simply try and manage environmental crises as they emerge.

"We need to integrate science into our future planning approaches and also work closely with key stakeholders to ensure the decisions we make incorporate the risks of future climate change," Dr Bardsley says.

He says as a result of his and his colleagues' research, the regional Board and local councils are investing significant amounts of time and money into climate change initiatives to make their regions less vulnerable.

"The challenge is to plan long term, beyond political cycles, to ensure we protect our natural resources."

Original news release.

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Future rainfall atlas created

ScienceAlert 10 Aug 09;
Australian National University

Researchers from The Australian National University have created the world’s first comprehensive visual atlas of global rainfall projections over the next 100 years based on all of the models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its most recent report.

PhD researcher Wee Ho Lim and Dr Michael Roderick from ANU have created the Atlas of the Global Water Cycle, which contains some 300 pages of global maps and tables showing current and projected measures of rainfall, evaporation and runoff.

The atlas illustrate the projections of each of the 20 computer models used by different countries to forecast future water cycles – data drawn upon by the IPCC in its reporting on climate change, but not visualised in the same way and place until now.

“We know that as the world warms there is likely to be more rainfall on a global average basis,” Dr Roderick said. “But where is this increased rainfall going to occur, and which areas might get drier? These are simple questions to ask, but it is surprisingly hard for an individual to get an answer, whether they’re a farmer, civil engineer, teacher or interested citizen,” Dr Roderick said.

“As researchers active in the field we could not answer the question with certainty. In fact, until now we’ve never seen a compilation of the individual rainfall predictions made by all the different climate models.”

Dr Roderick said that the Atlas of the Global Water Cycle would make all the current best information on modelling for future rainfall more easily available so that individuals and communities could make more informed decisions about how to plan for the century to come. He said the climate models – such as the one used by the CSIRO in Australia – each take slightly different approaches to forecasting future rainfall patterns, and that there different findings tended to be averaged out for ease of communication.

“This averaging out of all these different findings is what we tend to see in reports from the IPCC and other international bodies. One problem with these kinds of visualisation for a place like Australia is that there is little consensus between the different models for what will happen to rainfall on our continent.

“The atlas means that you can now see all the different models’ predictions for Australia and the world in detail, and then come to a more informed understanding. All these models are like crystal balls for the global water cycle – but it’s a question of whose crystal ball is the best and how do we know that? I can’t answer that question, but at least by having all the information to compare people will be able to make more informed decisions.”

The Atlas of the Global Water Cycle is available for sale in hard copy or free download from ANU E press.

Original news release.

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Vast expanses of Arctic ice melt in summer heat

Charles J. Hanley, Associated Press Yahoo News 9 Aug 09;

TUKTOYAKTUK, Northwest Territories – The Arctic Ocean has given up tens of thousands more square miles (square kilometers) of ice on Sunday in a relentless summer of melt, with scientists watching through satellite eyes for a possible record low polar ice cap.

From the barren Arctic shore of this village in Canada's far northwest, 1,500 miles (2,414 kilometers) north of Seattle, veteran observer Eddie Gruben has seen the summer ice retreating more each decade as the world has warmed. By this weekend the ice edge lay some 80 miles (128 kilometers) at sea.

"Forty years ago, it was 40 miles (64 kilometers) out," said Gruben, 89, patriarch of a local contracting business.

Global average temperatures rose 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.6 degree Celsius) in the past century, but Arctic temperatures rose twice as much or even faster, almost certainly in good part because of manmade greenhouse gases, researchers say.

In late July the mercury soared to almost 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius) in this settlement of 900 Inuvialuit, the name for western Arctic Eskimos.

"The water was really warm," Gruben said. "The kids were swimming in the ocean."

As of Thursday, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center reported, the polar ice cap extended over 2.61 million square miles (6.75 million square kilometers) after having shrunk an average 41,000 square miles (106,000 square kilometers) a day in July -- equivalent to one Indiana or three Belgiums daily.

The rate of melt was similar to that of July 2007, the year when the ice cap dwindled to a record low minimum extent of 1.7 million square miles (4.3 million square kilometers) in September.

In its latest analysis, the Colorado-based NSIDC said Arctic atmospheric conditions this summer have been similar to those of the summer of 2007, including a high-pressure ridge that produced clear skies and strong melt in the Beaufort Sea, the arm of the Arctic Ocean off northern Alaska and northwestern Canada.

In July, "we saw acceleration in loss of ice," the U.S. center's Walt Meier told The Associated Press. In recent days the pace has slowed, making a record-breaking final minimum "less likely but still possible," he said.

Scientists say the makeup of the frozen polar sea has shifted significantly the past few years, as thick multiyear ice has given way as the Arctic's dominant form to thin ice that comes and goes with each winter and summer.

The past few years have "signaled a fundamental change in the character of the ice and the Arctic climate," Meier said.

Ironically, the summer melts since 2007 appear to have allowed disintegrating but still thick multiyear ice to drift this year into the relatively narrow channels of the Northwest Passage, the east-west water route through Canada's Arctic islands. Usually impassable channels had been relatively ice-free the past two summers.

"We need some warm temperatures with easterly or southeasterly winds to break up and move this ice to the north," Mark Schrader, skipper of the sailboat "Ocean Watch," e-mailed The Associated Press from the west entrance to the passage.

The steel-hulled sailboat, with scientists joining it at stops along the way, is on a 25,000-mile (40,232-kilometer), foundation-financed circumnavigation of the Americas, to view and demonstrate the impact of climate change on the continents' environments.

Environmentalists worry, for example, that the ice-dependent polar bear will struggle to survive as the Arctic cap melts. Schrader reported seeing only one bear, an animal chased from the Arctic shore of Barrow, Alaska, that "swam close to Ocean Watch on its way out to sea."

Observation satellites' remote sensors will tell researchers in September whether the polar cap diminished this summer to its smallest size on record. Then the sun will begin to slip below the horizon for several months, and temperatures plunging in the polar darkness will freeze the surface of the sea again, leaving this and other Arctic coastlines in the grip of ice. Most of the sea ice will be new, thinner and weaker annual formations, however.

At a global conference last March in Copenhagen, scientists declared that climate change is occurring faster than had been anticipated, citing the fast-dying Arctic cap as one example. A month later, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted Arctic summers could be almost ice-free within 30 years, not at the century's end as earlier predicted.

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