Climate migration fears 'misplaced'

Cecilia Tacoli, The BBC Green Room 29 Sep 09;

Fears of millions of "climate refugees" crossing national borders are not supported by evidence on the ground, says Cecilia Tacoli. In this week's Green Room, she says we will fail to protect the world's most vulnerable people if misconceptions about migration continue to shape policies.

Search the internet for "migration" and "climate change" and you will find repeated warnings of a crisis in the making; of hundreds of millions of people on the move, of countries straining to cope with the pressure on their borders, and of national security under threat.

But these fears are based on many misconceptions about the duration, destination and composition of migrant flows.

There is a real risk that alarmism will divert attention from real problems, resulting in policies that fail to protect the most vulnerable people.

The longer it takes people to realise this, the bigger the true problems will become.

Firstly, the numbers of people likely to be moving have been exaggerated. Secondly, the notion commonly expressed in rich countries - that large numbers of poor people from across the planet will attempt to migrate there permanently - is clearly wrong.

Yes, hundreds of millions of people live in places that are highly vulnerable to climate change.

They face extreme weather conditions such as droughts and floods, or they live in low-lying coastal areas that are threatened by rising sea levels. Their lives and livelihoods are threatened in new and significant ways.

But this does not mean they will all migrate.

The poorest and most vulnerable people will often find it impossible to move, as they lack the necessary funds and social support. Those who can migrate will be more likely to make short-term, short-distance movements than permanent long-term ones.

Overall, long-distance international migration will be the least likely option.

Past lessons

What can we learn from the past? In northern Mali, the drought of 1983-5 affected local migration patterns, with an increase in temporary and short-distance movement and a decrease in long-term, intercontinental movement.

Similarly, recent research in Burkina Faso suggests that a decrease in rainfall increases temporary rural-rural migration.

On the other hand, migration to urban centres and to other nations, which entails higher costs, is more likely to take place after normal rainfall periods.

It is influenced by migrants' education, the existence of social networks and access to transport and road networks.

In all cases, migrants make substantial contributions to the livelihoods of their relatives and communities, by sending money, information and goods back home.

A surprisingly large proportion of the income of rural people in Africa, Asia and Latin America comes from non-farm activities, and much of it as migrants' remittances.

With climate change making farming more difficult, the need for these resources will increase.

Unfortunately, most governments and international agencies tend to see migration as a problem that needs to be controlled instead of a key part of the solution.

In doing so, they are missing opportunities to develop policies that can increase people's resilience to climate change.

Room for new views

Policymakers must radically alter their views of migration, and see it as a vital adaptation to climate change rather than as an unwanted consequence or a failure to adapt.

This means that poorer nations need to prepare for climate change at home by building up infrastructure and basic services in small towns located in rural areas that could become destination hubs for local migrants.

Options include policies that promote access to non-farm jobs in small rural towns and a more decentralised distribution of economic opportunities.

To do so, they should first of all focus on increasing the capacity of local governments and institutions in small towns to support local economic development, provide basic services and regulate equitable access to natural resources.

Richer countries, meanwhile, need to stop panicking about a mass influx of migrants that is unlikely to happen and instead focus on helping the poorer countries to face climate change.

As the richer countries have emitted most of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change, they have a duty to address the problem.

This means providing poorer nations with financial support to help them adapt to climate change, which can either reduce the need for migration or enable it to proceed in a way that is sound and sustainable.

It also means taking drastic domestic action to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases that are causing climate change in the first place.

People are talking about migration as if it were something new, but people have always used their mobility as a means to protect themselves and escape from poverty.

The problem is not that people want to move, but that many of the most vulnerable people do not have the resources or livelihood options that will enable them to do so in a way that maintains their security.

Ironically, the failure to recognise the role of voluntary migration in adapting to climate change contributes to crisis-driven movements that inevitably increase the vulnerability of those forced to leave their homes and assets as they flee conflict and disaster.

It is worth remembering that supporting migrants can ultimately help reduce the numbers of refugees.

Dr Cecilia Tacoli is a senior researcher at the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)

This article is based on a research paper published on 28 September in the journal Environment and Urbanization

The Green Room is a series of opinion articles on environmental topics running weekly on the BBC News website

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Climate pact must include forest scheme: WWF

Yahoo News 29 Sep 09;

BANGKOK (AFP) – A leading environmental group on Tuesday urged delegates at UN climate talks in Bangkok to include plans to reward nations for saving their forests in any deal on global warming.

WWF International released a survey saying that investors showed "significant support" for a carbon market mechanism, which would address the estimated 20 percent of global carbon emissions due to deforestation.

The group released the poll as officials from 192 countries gathered in Thailand to try to agree on a text for a climate change treaty ahead of a crucial showdown in Copenhagen in December.

"Any global deal on climate change must take into account the significant role forests play in combating global warming," said WWF International director general James Leape.

The UN-backed reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) scheme is not yet part of the pact which could be signed at Copenhagen, a successor to the Kyoto Protocol on greenhouse gases which expires in 2012.

The idea behind REDD is to work out how much carbon can be saved by not cutting down trees, and selling that carbon on the global market for big polluters to offset their own emissions.

Environmentalists say the world needs forests to absorb the carbon in the atmosphere that is causing climate change, and also to curb carbon emitted by rotting dead trees and burning.

The WWF said that for the survey it had questioned investors who have around seven trillion dollars of assets under management, and that they said they wanted initial public financing for any scheme.

They also wanted certainty from both international agreements and national legislation before they commit.

WWF said it spoke to 25 senior money managers, analysts and specialist sustainability investors in Europe, the United States and the Asia-Pacific region.

"If strong policies are put in place to ensure real reductions in emissions and real benefits to forest communities, investors can play a key role in supporting REDD," Leape said.

"Agreement in Copenhagen -- coupled with progress on national initiatives -- will be a signal to investors that REDD can and will succeed, and will ensure forests are more valuable standing than cut."

The Bangkok talks are the next to last before the Copenhagen meeting and the UN climate chief, Yvo de Boer, warned on Monday that time was running out to reach a deal.

There are major disagreements between developed and developing nations on the how much they will cut carbon emissions by and who will meet the enormous cost.

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Climate change measures 'crucial for Asia-Pacific'

Rachel O'brien Yahoo News 29 Sep 09;

BANGKOK (AFP) – UN experts warned on Tuesday that Asia-Pacific nations and other developing countries need support to combat climate change as they face an intensification of extreme weather such as the Philippine floods.

The comments came as a divide between rich and poor nations continued to dominate crucial negotiations in Bangkok to develop a new climate treaty before world leaders meet in Copenhagen in December.

UN climate chief Yvo de Boer said one of the "key elements" of a deal was increased support for developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region and elsewhere to step up efforts to deal with the effects of climate change.

"Typhoons, floods and extreme weather events regularly make headlines in this part of the world," de Boer told reporters.

De Boer said the devastation in the Philippines was "the most recent tragic example" of climate change affecting the region, as the death toll reached 240, with the same storm, Ketsana, also killing 22 people in Vietnam.

"The impacts are likely to become more intense over time. Dealing with emergency situations, reducing disaster risks and increasing the climate resilience is a necessity for this region," he added.

Indonesia became the latest country to announce plans for a cut in greenhouse gas emissions, saying it would cut them by more than a quarter.

Campaigners have applauded recent encouraging announcements on climate change from Asian countries including China, India and Japan, which has pledged to reduce emissions by 25 percent from 1990 levels by 2020.

Developed nations admit a historical responsibility for global warming but say developing countries should also pledge to curb their output, while emerging economies have called on rich nations to make higher cuts.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono made the pledge in a speech at a working lunch during the G20 summit in Pittsburgh on September 25 but it was only made public at the negotiations in the Thai capital, an Indonesian delegate said.

Indonesia remains one of the leading forest destroyers, with emissions from the clearing of rainforests and peatlands making it the world's third-largest greenhouse gas emitter, according to some estimates.

"We just want to tell the world that although the obligation is mainly, most of it, on developed countries, Indonesia as victims of climate change would like to do something to prevent it from worsening," senior delegate Agus Purnomo said.

In Yudhoyono's speech, a copy of which was obtained by AFP, the president said Indonesia had decided on a national climate change action plan "that will reduce our emissions by 26 percent by 2020 from BAU (Business As Usual)."

With international support Indonesia could reduce emissions by as much as 41 percent, Yudhoyono said.

UN Under-Secretary General Noeleen Heyzer said the Asia-Pacific region had experienced 80 percent of global casualties related to extreme weather events over the last seven years.

"Climate change is likely to increase both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events as well as the number of related casualties," she told the briefing.

Heyzer, also chief of the UN's Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, said most developing countries in the region faced two inter-linked challenges: combating poverty and overcoming climate change.

"Failure to tackle one will undermine efforts to deal with the other," she said. The transition towards a low carbon economy was already happening in the region but still required "massive investments," she added.

The Bangkok talks are the second-to-last negotiating session before Copenhagen, the last chance to sign a deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.

Meanwhile conservation group WWF International released a survey saying that leading investors showed "significant support" for a scheme that would reward nations for saving their forests in any deal on global warming.

Asia-Pacific at risk if climate change ignored: ADB
Martin Petty, Reuters 30 Sep 09;

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Asia-Pacific countries face food and energy shortages, worsening poverty and declining crop yields if they ignore climate change, according to studies released on Wednesday.

The region will suffer major social and economic changes if countries fail to adopt new practices -- from liberalizing trade to introducing better quality seeds for crops -- according to separate reports by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), on agriculture, migration and energy.

Under some scenarios, food prices could shoot up as much as 70 percent in the next 40 years as crop yields shrink, leading to a rise in malnutrition in some Asian countries, the ADB said.

"The combination of poverty in rural areas and the expected impacts of climate change and its remaining uncertainty will require careful planning...," the Manila-based ADB said.

"Targeted climate change investments and more flexible decision-making will be necessary to make the most of scarce budgetary resources," it added.

The report warned that the countries where poverty was rife such as Afghanistan, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Nepal were most at risk and least likely to respond to, or handle, the pressures of climate change.

It recommended new initiatives to reduce the chance of an agricultural disaster. These include trade liberalization, more state subsidies, distribution of improved seeds and being better prepared for environmental problems from land degradation to wetter and drier seasons.

'WORRYING PICTURE'

Without changes in farming practices, prices would rise significantly in line with diminished agricultural yields, the ADB forecast. Rice output could fall 25 percent, wheat and maize by 40 percent, causing prices to rise by 40-70 percent in the next 40 years.

"This significantly negative impact of climate change on agriculture paints a very worrying picture," said Mark Rosengrant of the International Food Policy Research Institute.

"It will worsen existing problems, adding to high malnutrition and the poor will be the most adversely affected."

The ADB report coincided with the release of a study by the World Bank on Wednesday that estimated developing countries would need up to $100 billion annually for the next 40 years to adapt to a two-degree increase in temperature.

The ADB's study also highlighted concerns about energy security, emphasizing that investment and financial support were required to steer poorer countries toward alternative energy sources and lessen dependence on fossil fuels.

"The region is well endowed with clean energy sources but faces constraints in developing them," it said.

"International financial support is essential but has been completely inadequate. The flow of financing from the developed world...is of paramount importance."

The report also highlighted potential problems of migration, internal and external, and warned about the dangers of people continuing to flock to coastal cities likely to be affected by rising sea levels.

Experts said plans needed to be drawn up to manage migration movements, with greater cooperation between neighboring countries and development of urban centers to ease pressure on swelling coastal cities such as Bangkok and Shanghai.

"We need to look at this with seriousness because of growing numbers of people moving into areas vulnerable to climate-induced impacts," said Robert Dobias, a senior ADB climate change advisor. "It's a very worrying trend."

(Editing by Jason Szep and Sanjeev Miglani)

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Poorer states need 'billions' for global warning: World Bank

Yahoo News 29 Sep 09;

THE HAGUE (AFP) – Developing countries will need up to 100 billion dollars (80 billion euros) a year for 40 years to combat the effects of global warming, said a World Bank report released in The Hague on Tuesday.

Assuming the planet is two degrees Celsius warmer by 2050, "the study puts the cost of adapting ... at 75 billion to 100 billion dollars a year" from 2010, according to an investigation commissioned by Britain, the Netherlands and Switzerland.

"What we try to show with this report is the urgency of ensuring that there are sufficient funds for adaptation" for poor countries, Dutch Development Minister Bert Koenders said on receiving the report.

"It is for many countries a question of life and death," he added. "There will be no climate deal in Copenhagen if there is no financing for adaptation" -- referring to the UN climate summit to be held there in December.

East Asia, South Asia, Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa are those most affected by global warming, the report said.

The European Union, Japan and the United States "realise" that money had to be found, Koenders said, adding however that funding "does not necessarily have to come from national budgets".

"The big political debate is now about the figures, that is why it is very important to have objective figures from this report."

Koenders said developing countries would require additional aid on top of traditional development assistance to deal with climate change.

World Bank economist Sergio Margulis, who headed the study, said the costs of global warming will rise.

"Development is the most powerful form of adaptation," the report said.

"It makes economies less reliant on climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture. It boosts the capacity of households to adapt by increasing levels of incomes, health and education.

"It enhances the ability of governments to assist by improving the institutional infrastructure. And it dramatically reduces the number of people killed by floods and affected by floods and droughts."

Development also means breeding drought- and flood-tolerant crops, climate-proofing infrastructure, the report said.

Margulis said developing countries, like their rich counterparts, also had a duty to reduce CO2 emissions "to avoid the unmanageable consequences of higher temperatures".

If nothing is done, the report argued, global warming would kill half the species on the planet, flood 30 percent of coastal wetlands, and cause a steep rise in malnutrition and disease.

Climate change to cost poor states $100 billion a year
Thin Lei Win, Reuters 20 Sep 09;

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Developing countries will need to spend as much as $100 billion annually for the next 40 years to adapt to more extreme and severe weather changes, according to a World Bank study issued on Wednesday.

The report said poorer countries would need to invest in large-scale infrastructure projects to cope with floods, drought, heatwaves and more frequent and intense rainfall if the Earth's temperature rose by 2 degrees Celsius by 2050.

"Faced with the prospect of huge additional infrastructure costs, as well as drought, disease and dramatic reductions in agricultural productivity, developing countries need to be prepared for the potential consequences of unchecked climate change," said Katherine Sierra, World Bank vice president for sustainable development.

Previous estimates of adaptation costs by other groups ranged from $9 billion to $104 billion, but the World Bank said the latest projection of costs are the most in-depth analysis to date of the impact of climate change.

The report gave a costs range of $75 billion to $100 billion based on two different scenarios, the first a drier world that would require less investment than wetter conditions, which would need measures such as building sea walls or deeper drainage canals.

HARDEST HIT

East Asia and the Pacific, home to some of the world's fastest-growing economies, would be the hardest hit financially, accounting for at least a quarter of total costs, mostly due to increased urbanization, especially in coastal areas, said Warren Evans, director of the Bank's environment department.

According to the study, the cost of adapting to a warmer world is on the same scale as the amount of aid developing countries currently receive. Aid agencies say it is essential that aid money is not cut to fund climate change initiatives.

"Any financing that comes in must be additional money," Oxfam's senior climate policy advisor, Antonio Hill, told Reuters. "If it's not, then it's just robbing Peter to pay Paul."

Conservation group WWF voiced concern that the World Bank's estimate was based on the assumption that the world would work together to restrict the temperature rise to two degrees.

"The commitments from developed countries in the present negotiations don't come anywhere near this level of ambition," WWF said in a statement, referring to global climate change talks taking place in Bangkok.

"This underlines the need for much stronger commitments on the table from developed countries, both in terms of emissions reductions and in terms of financing for climate action in developing countries." (Editing by Martin Petty and Alex Richardson)

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Best of our wild blogs: 29 Sep 09

30 Sep (Wed): Scene City Singapore - Southern Ridges and Sungei Buloh from wild shores of singapore

Talk Climate change and marine biodiversity: Lessons from a little red dot from BlueWaterVolunteers

A sluggish F1 weekend at Hantu
from Pulau Hantu

A Sub-adult Painted Bronzeback
from Life's Indulgences

Wildfacts updates: saron shrimp, giant chiton and more plants
from wild shores of singapore

Signs of recovery
from The annotated budak and Home swift home

Great Bowerbird of Kakadu National Park
from Bird Ecology Study Group

We'll be back!
from Fish, Respect And Protect

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Singapore population of 4.99m is older, more likely living alone

Channel NewsAsia 28 Sep 09;

Singapore: The population of Singapore at the end of June stood at 4.99 million according to the 2009 Population Trends report.

The Department of Statistics report, issued on Monday, also showed that there were 3.73 million Singapore residents and 1.25 million non-residents.

Singapore Residents and Permanent Residents formed 75% of the population, with the resident population growing 2.55% in 2009, from the 3.1% total growth over the previous year.

The statistics compiled through the register-based approach indicated that the number of Singapore citizens grew to 3.20 million. This is as the number of permanent residents rose to 0.53 million, while non-resident numbers eased to a growth of 4.8% compared to 10% seen in earlier years.

The Population Trends report also found that the Singapore population is now older with a median age of 37 years, as the baby boomers of the 1970s move into the 45-64 years age group.

There are also more women in Singapore as the gap widened in 2009, with females outnumbering males by 44,400.

While the number of marriages went up to 24,596, making it the largest number since 2000, it also turned out that more people were marrying late with many still single despite being in their thirties.

However, while more men did marry, more women were widowed, indicating the longer life-span of women.

The fertility rate continued to decline with 1.28 live births per female in 2008 compared to 1.29 a year earlier.

Women were also giving birth later, delaying till the age of 30-34 years, with fewer families opting for a third or fourth child.

Households were small, the report found, with a 10% rise in the number of people living alone.

The Population Trends report also concluded that a 2008 new-born Singapore resident could expect to live some 80 years.

- CNA/sf

More details of the 2009 Population Trends report: http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/popn/population2009.pdf

Population rises but at slower pace
Zakir Hussain, Straits Times 28 Sep 09;

SINGAPORE'S population is set to rise to five million, although the pace of growth this year is the slowest in four years because of the recession.

There are 4,987,600 people living here, and almost two-thirds - or 3.2 million - are Singapore citizens, according to June 2009 figures released by the Department of Statistics yesterday.

The others are permanent residents (PRs) and foreigners. In this foreign pool of 1.8 million, the number of PRs grew faster - by 12 per cent.

It shot up by 55,000 to 533,200, partly because of many foreigners rushing to be PRs to avoid having to pack up and leave Singapore should they lose their jobs during the downturn.

In contrast, the number of foreigners - which includes family members of foreign workers - rose less sharply to 1.25 million.

This is a rise of 5 per cent, which is much smaller than last year's 19 per cent increase amid a booming economy.

More than half of these foreigners are transient workers, many of whom do jobs or take shifts that locals avoid.

The bigger foreign pool is cause for cheer, said National University of Singapore sociologist Paulin Straughan.

'That we managed to grow the population in spite of a downturn and sustained low fertility rate is quite an achievement.

'This means Singapore remains an attractive destination for those seeking work,' said Associate Professor Straughan, who is also a Nominated MP.

'Given that...First World countries are also actively wooing immigrants, we have done well,' she added.

But the rapid influx of foreigners in the last three years is going to slow down, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong last month when he was addressing some 1,500 undergraduates at the Nanyang Technological University.

The reason: Mr Lee does not expect the economy in the coming years to grow at the red-hot pace that it did in the past several years.

He said he could not envision Singapore, one day, having two million foreign workers. However, he said a sustained, calibrated inflow of immigrants was necessary to safeguard the long-term interest of Singaporeans.

The soaring numbers of foreign manpower have spawned considerable discontent among Singaporeans in recent years.

Many lamented that the newcomers were taking their jobs, while others felt they were not making the effort to integrate, let alone communicate, with locals.

As the economy began to sour late last year, government leaders noted that the number of non-resident workers could dip.

It did not, even though the economy contracted by 3.5 per cent in the second quarter of this year compared to the same period last year.

Yesterday, population analysts interviewed stressed the continuing role foreigners play in growing the economy.

Veteran demographer Saw Swee Hock noted that the population is always expected to grow because it is tied to the need to grow the economy.

From a national point of view, if the population were to fall for several years, it would be a cause for concern, added the professorial fellow at the Institute of South-east Asian Studies.

Demographer Yap Mui Teng, a senior research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies, noted the continued demand for foreign workers.

For instance, the construction industry is especially hungry for them to work on projects like the integrated resorts. Also, in the service sector, employers complain about the difficulties in recruiting locals, she said.

Added Prof Straughan: 'Given that our fertility rate is not likely to increase significantly in the near future, it is critical that we are able to remain an attractive destination for immigrants.'

Otherwise, there will be fewer workers in future to shoulder the growing burden of supporting Singapore's fast-ageing population, she said.

The importance of keeping the door open to foreigners is accentuated by the slew of sombre figures highlighted in the report: An ageing population, a rising proportion of singles, residents marrying later and living longer, and a declining fertility rate.

But Prof Straughan feels employers can also do more by offering flexible work arrangement so that young Singaporeans will have the time to seek life partners, build families and even look after elderly family members.

The latest figures also show a slight change in the ethnic distribution of Singapore citizens and PRs, as a result of low fertility and immigration.

Chinese form 74.2 per cent of the population, down from 76.8 per cent in 2000 and 77.8 per cent in 1990.

Malays make up 13.4 per cent, down from 13.9 per cent (2000) and 14 per cent (1990), while Indians form 9.2 per cent, up from 7.9 per cent (2000) and 7.1 per cent (1990).

Residents who fall outside these categories make up 3.2 per cent of the population, up from 1.4 per cent (2000) and 1.1 per cent (1990).

Population growth slowest in 3 years
Lynette Khoo, Business Times 29 Sep 09;

FEELING the heat of the economic downturn, Singapore's population growth eased to its slowest in three years to 4.99 million as at end-June.

The 3.1 per cent growth from a year ago was lower than the 4.3 per cent and 5.5 per cent growth seen in 2007 and 2008 respectively, data from the Department of Statistics (DOS) shows.

The number of Singapore citizens increased by 1.1 per cent to 3.2 million in 2009, while the number of permanent residents grew 10.4 per cent to 530,000.

Foreigners make up 25 per cent of the Singapore's population. The pace of growth among this segment eased to 4.8 per cent this year, compared to growth rates of over 10 per cent in 2008 and 2007.

Economists were unsurprised by the data, which they felt was in line with the bleak job market this year.

CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun noted that the decline in growth of foreigners here shows the flexibility of Singapore's labour market.

'Going forward, population growth underscoring labour demand growth will be contingent on the recovery profile,' he said.

OCBC economist Selena Ling said that she believes such deceleration of population growth, especially involving foreigners, is a blip and should improve with the recovery in the global economy and the opening of the two integrated resorts here.

The Population Trends 2009 report released yesterday also gave a grim snapshot of Singapore's ageing population trend, falling fertility rates and a delay in marriages.

The median age of Singaporeans rose to 37 years in 2009 from 20 years in 1970. Elderly persons aged 65 years and above make up 8.8 per cent of the resident population in 2009, up from 7 per cent in 1999.

The ratio of working-age residents to elderly residents has also declined. In 2009, there were 8.3 residents aged 15-64 years for every resident aged 65 and above, compared to an old-age support ratio of 10.1 in 1999.

Interestingly, the number of marriages last year hit a record high since 2000, with a total of 24,596 marriages registered here. However, marriage rates fell across the younger age groups below 30 years in 2008, suggesting that people are delaying marriage.

The median age of first marriage across all educational groups also increased. For brides with university qualification, the median age of first marriage has reached 28.2 years in 2008 from 26.8 years a decade ago. For grooms in the same educational group, that has risen to 30.1 years from 29 years.

'There is also a tendency towards delay in child-bearing,' said DOS. 'While the peak in fertility was in the age group 25-29 years in 1990, the peak has moved to the age group 30-34 years from 2002 onwards.'

Fertility rates have fallen across all age groups over the past two decades, with those in the 25-29 years age group registering the largest decline from 110 births per 1,000 women in 2000 to 79 per 1,000 women in 2008.

But there were slightly more babies born last year, which may be attributable to the enhanced baby bonuses doled out by the government. The number stood at 39,826, a 0.9 per cent increase from 2007.

Foreign population growth slows down
Esther Ng, Today Online 29 Sep 09;

IN A sign of things to come, the pace of growth of the foreign population in Singapore has hit the brakes.

After two years of double-digit increase and five years of an acceleration in the influx of non-residents - since the last time the Singapore economy had stalled - their numbers grew by 4.8 per cent from June last year to this June.

Still, it was enough to tip the total population to almost 5 million in a recession-hit Singapore.

The biggest jump - looking at the growth trends in recent years - was among permanent residents (PRs). After averaging an annual increase of 9.9 per cent over the decade leading up to 2000 - and smaller annual growth rates in the new millennium - the number of PRs grew 11.5 per cent, as of this June, from the year before.

The "period of uncertainty" that has clouded the world's economies - and by extension, has curbed the growth momentum in Singapore's non-resident population here of 14.9 per cent in 2007 and 19 per cent last year - is also the reason for the double-digit increase in the number of PRs here, said CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun.

"It's not unexpected ... These people could have become PRs to stay in Singapore or Asia to look for jobs. They ... are using Singapore as a launching pad," he told Today.

Singapore's population density is now 6,814 people per square kilometre, compared to 5,900 per sq km in 2000.

Mr Song said: "For the moment, Singapore's infrastructure is adequate. The infrastructure is continually being upgraded."

The Population Trends 2009 report published online yesterday by the Singapore Department of Statistics also showed that other trends in ageing and marriage in Singapore continue to hold steady.

The proportion of persons living alone now stands at 10 per-cent, from 8.2 per cent in 2000 and 5.2 per cent in 1990.

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Pruning done judiciously

Letter from Ang Chiean Hong Assistant Director (Riverine Parks)
National Parks Board
Today Online 28 Sep 09;

We refer to "Don't prune indiscriminately" (Sept 22) and "Not every branch is a threat" (Sept 24). We share their concern for the health of our flora and fauna.

As part of our regular maintenance at MacRitchie Reservoir Park, we are pruning some overhanging branches that could potentially be hazardous to park users. Some shrubs along the paths were trimmed to enhance visibility of the surroundings. Three trees were also removed as they were not healthy.

We will plant more trees and upgrade the directional signboards in conjunction with PUB's Phase 2 of the redevelopment works at the park, which are scheduled to commence in the fourth quarter of this year.

We thank Mr Chin Kee Thou and Mr Thomas Phua for their feedback. If they have further questions, they are welcome to contact Ms Dorothy Lim at dorothy_lim@nparks.gov.sg.

NParks replies: Pruning contractors' details are displayed
Letter from Simon Longman, Director, Streetscape, National Parks Board
Today Online 1 Oct 09;

We refer to "Put pruning contractors' details public" from Prasanna Ogale on Sep 26.

We share the concern for the health and condition of our trees and thank the writer for the feedback.

NParks has a sound tree safety inspection and maintenance programme in place. To support our team of arborists on scheduled pruning routine works, we work with contractors who must have relevant arboriculture work experience in urban streetscape with good track records of works carried out in Singapore. We also ensure that our contractors go through training so that they are able to assess when and how trees need to be pruned. When in doubt, NParks officers will advise them accordingly.

All pruning works along roads are carried out using lorry cranes to access the works. We do make it a contractual requirement for all our contractors to display conspicuous signs on the tailboard and windscreen of the vehicle when carrying out works under each contract. The signs show the contract reference and vehicle numbers as well as NParks' helpline for the public to call where necessary.

In addition, pruning works are also conducted by other government agencies, depending on the location of the trees. We would like the writer to contact us at 1800-4717300 regarding the location of the mentioned pruning so that we can clarify this matter further.

Don't prune indiscriminately
Letter from Chin Kee Thou, Today Online 23 Sep 09;

A REGULAR visitor to MacRitchie Reservoir Park since 2005, I was flabbergasted by the maintenance work done there recently.

Instead of pruning and trimming the trees, contractors engaged to do the job simply sawed off branches. Spreading branches were cut off, depriving visitors of shade. Several large mature trees, which provided sanctuary for birds, squirrels, monkeys and other creatures were also chopped down.

Shrubs and bushes lining paths, walkways and pavements were trimmed to a low height - leaving only bare branches, some with withered leaves.

Also, a signpost at the foot of the hill leading to the Lim Bo Seng grave site was affixed with three signboards (relocated from elsewhere) showing the directions to the MacRitchie Nature Trail and HSBC Treetop Walk, Paddle Lodge and Fishing Ground and MacRitchie Park; canteen, car park, toilets and public telephone booth. The signs, however, all pointed towards Lornie Road and the flyover.

These lapses are an embarrassment and clearly show a lack of supervision.

The National Parks Board needs to engage contractors with some horticultural knowledge and aesthetic sense to trim the trees and shrubs. Close supervision is needed to keep the park in a decent condition.

Not every branch is a threat
Letter from Thomas S K Phua, Today Online 24 Sep 09;

I REFER to the letter "Don't prune indiscriminately" (Sept 22), by Mr Chin Kee Thou.

The reckless destruction of trees seems to be some kind of a "disease" spreading all over Singapore. At Jurong Lake, many trees have been mutilated and much of their cooling shade is gone. In addition, a lot of the undergrowth where birds and other small animals took shelter has been removed.

I understand that arborists are involved in such decisions. I hope they are concerned about the health of the fauna, and do not just see every leaf lying on the floor, every overhanging branch as a possible danger.

And from what I have seen, there are no arborists around when the trees are cropped - only a bunch of workers with chainsaws who really don't know how to cut a tree sensitively.

Put pruning contractors' details public
Letter from Prasanna Ogale, Today Online 26 Sep 09;

I refer to "Don't prune indiscriminately" (Sept 22) and "Not every branch is a threat" (Sept 24).

I have had very similar experiences about the pruning that is carried out on road side trees, in parking areas and around HDB blocks. The pruning is indiscriminate, done by people who have no idea why and what they are doing. These people are rarely supervised.

Once, I asked some workers to call their supervisor and it took almost 20 minutes before we could get the supervisor on the phone. It took him another three hours to come and see me, and that was only when I told him that I was lodging a complaint against him for not being present at the site. I also found there is no hard and fast rule about which trees are being pruned or chopped down.

In the above case when I protested strongly, the contractor decided not to cut the rest of the trees. Three years on, the trees that have been spared the chainsaw are still growing well.

It should be made a requirement by either the Land Transport Authority or NParks that contractors' names, and contact details be put on a board at the site where any pruning is to be done. Then anybody who has a query can get onto those responsible faster.

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28 artificial reefs placed off Pulau Besar in Malacca to boost fish stocks

Chen Pelf Yeen, The Star 29 Sep 09;

MALACCA: The Malacca Fisheries Department has built and placed 28 artificial reefs off Pulau Besar at a cost of RM360,000 to increase the state’s fish stock.

The department’s director Rosmawati Ghazali said the 28 soft-bed reefs were specifically designed by its engineering division to suit the local seabed conditions.

“The reefs are scattered over a no-fishing zone off Pulau Besar and are part of the department’s programme to increase fish stock,” she said when launching the programme in Klebang Besar recently.

The 28 artificial reefs being prepared for placement at the no fishing zone.

The department initiated the programme last year when 14 similar reefs were placed in waters off the island about 5km from the Umbai coast, she added.

Rosmawati said that each square-shaped perforated concrete reef weighed 18 tonnes and stood 3.6m high on a 3m x 3m base.

Meanwhile, State Rural and Agriculture Development Committee chairman Datuk Mohamad Hidhir Abu Hasan said the reefs would increase fish spawning by at least 30%.

There are about 143 fishermen who cast their nets off the coast here and they stand get better catches, he said, adding that similar programmes could be found in Terengganu, Perak and Penang.

The move to increase fish stock here was in line with the aim to boost the national annual harvest.

Currently, he said that deep sea fishing contributed 380,000 tonnes, aquaculture 508,000 tonnes and coastal fishermen 938,000 tonnes.

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For sea turtles: Going the egg-stra mile to get the word out

New Straits Times 28 Sep 09;

KUALA LUMPUR: Three rangers, one "eggmobile" and one mission.

Almost two months ago, three women set out to stop the sale and consumption of turtle eggs. They vowed to collect 100,000 signatures to support the Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF) Malaysia Egg - Life Campaign, aimed at protecting and conserving marine turtles.

Now, with less than 10 days before the campaign ends, the "Telur Rangers" have collected fewer than 5,000 signatures and 15,000 online pledges. But they have left behind a trail of awareness.

Clad in turtle T-shirts, Chong Huey Meim, Grace Duraisingham and Nelleisa Omar have visited almost all the states in the peninsula in a classic Volkswagen Beetle to collect signatures and spread the word about turtle conservation.


"We may not have collected 100,000 signatures but we have enlisted apprentice Telur Ranger agents. I believe that in some small way, we have made a difference," said Duraisingham, a biologist.

They persuaded organisations, schools, universities and colleges to collect signatures at their own pace. And aside from setting up their own blog, the Telur Rangers have gathered more than 1,000 fans on the social networking site Facebook, where they have posted, notes, videos and pictures of their journey.

"Some of the things we encountered left us speechless. I was explaining to one man that he should stop eating turtle eggs because the creatures are going extinct. He was shocked but went on to say he needed to buy more before they became more difficult to find," she said, adding that turtle eggs were being sold openly at wet markets at RM10 for three.

Turtles lay more than 100 eggs in a single nesting but only one in 1,000 baby turtles survives into adulthood. It takes 30 years on average for a turtle to mature.

Asked why people favour turtle eggs, Duraisingham said: "People believe they have some aphrodisiac value. There are myths that if a pregnant woman eats them, the baby's skin will be as smooth as an egg.

"But there is no scientific proof they have medicinal value and turtle eggs are not more nutritious than chicken eggs."

On one of her blog entries, Melleisa said the trade in turtle eggs was illegal but the rangers did not see any enforcement.

"One seller told me her stock comes from Sabah by air or sea," said the advertising agency executive.

Public relations executive Chong said turtles faced many challenges, including poaching, coastal development, trapping and getting caught in fishing nets.


"Turtles play an essential role in maintaining the balance of the ocean ecosystem. They feed on jellyfish, preventing overpopulation. Their dwindling numbers mean an increase in jellyfish that in turn affects our fisheries."

By signing up, one pledges to support laws banning the sale and consumption of turtle egg and support the call for comprehensive laws to conserve marine turtles.

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El Nino causes scorchers in South Sumatra

Khairul Saleh, The Jakarta Post 28 Sep 09;

A local Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) blamed the current scorchers in Palembang on El Nino phenomenon.

Agus Santoso, a Palembang BMKG observation division head, said the daytime temperature had reached 34 degrees Celsius, higher than the normal days’ temperature of below 33 degrees.

"It happened before Ramadhan. We predict that the current weather will last through October," he said.

Meanwhile, South Sumatra forest fire management unit secretary, Ahmad Taufik said these scorchers would trigger forest fires.

"We can only hope more rain will fall to avoid widespread forest fires," he said.

Haze worsening in South Sumatra
Jakarta Post 28 Sep 09;

PALEMBANG: Haze blanketed almost all of Palembang and other regencies in South Sumatra on Sunday.

Strong winds spread the haze to Ogan Komering Ilir, Ogan Ilir and Banyuasin regencies. The haze also caused respiratory problems and poor visibility for motorists.

"The haze has been covering the city since the first day of Idul Fitri," Umar, a resident of North Indralaya, Ogan Ilir, said Sunday.

The haze mixed also blanketed roofs and windows of houses in several villages in the regency. - JP

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Sabah to name 500 islands in its waters

Muguntan Vanar, The Star 28 Sep 09;

KOTA KINABALU: Sabah will undertake a comprehensive programme to give names to some 500 islands, some of them inhabitated, within its territorial waters.

Chief Minister Datuk Musa Aman said the programme will be undertaken by the Tourism, Culture and Environment Ministry together with other relevant government departments to ensure that all the islands were a given a name and gazetted.

“We believe that there are about 400 to 500 islands without an official name,” he said after opening the 4th Tourism Promotion Organisation for the Asia-Pacific Cities (TPO) general assembly here on Monday.

Musa said this when asked about fears raised by a University Malaysia Sabah (UMS) study that showed that many islands in Sabah were not named, which could lead to future territorial disputes with neighbouring countries.

UMS International Law Studies lecturer Dr Marja Azlima said the Government needed to be proactive in naming the islands whether big or small so as to avoid overlapping claims like that of Ambalat between Malaysia and Indoensia, and Batu Putih between Malaysia and Singapore.

She cautioned that unnamed islands would be focal points for overlapping claims between neighbours and should be addressed now to overcome future issues.

Musa said that the naming or renaming of islands within Malaysian territory would be tabled to Cabinet for approval before they are gazetted.

500 islands off Sabah to be named
The New Straits Times 1 Oct 09;

KOTA KINABALU: An estimated 500 unknown islands off Sabah will soon be named.

A working committee under the purview of the State Secretary and the Land and Survey Department had been tasked with identifying the islands and coming up with suitable names.

"Cooperation from the Topography Department and the Department of Survey and Mapping Malaysia had also been sought to identify the exact locations of the islands," said Land and Survey Department director Datuk Osman Jamal.

Once the exact locations of the islands have been determined, a report that would include the proposed names for the islands would be submitted to the Chief Minister and the Cabinet for approval.

"There is a lot of work to be done and our focus is on the physically seen islands," he said.

Chief Minister Datuk Seri Musa Aman had on Monday said that steps would be taken by the government to identify and to name the many islands off Sabah to prevent other countries from laying claim over them.

Musa was reacting to a finding by the Universiti Malaysia Sabah that many of the islands off Sabah have yet to be named.

Osman said the local authorities may submit names for consideration by the working committee to be submitted to the cabinet for final approval.

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The Big Question: Are so-called 'extinct' species really extinct, and will we rediscover any?

Michael McCarthy, The Independent 28 Sep 09;

Why are we asking this now?

Because ornithologists have just launched an international quest to rediscover a large group of "lost" bird species – believing that some may not be lost after all.

Why does that matter?

Because the human pressure on the natural world is increasing to such an extent that more and more creatures face being wiped out. According to the Red List of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, 12 per cent of the world's birds, 21 per cent of mammals, 30 per cent of amphibians, 31 per cent of reptiles, 37 per cent of fishes and 70 per cent of the world's plant species are now threatened with extinction. Extinction is one of the great blights of our times. Any creatures that are labelled extinct, but which can be rediscovered, offer enormous hope for conservation.

Are there likely to be many?

More than you might think. In the past few years there has been a whole series of rediscoveries of birds, mammals, fish, insects and other creatures that were supposed to have died out.

For example, the mahogany glider, an Australian possum, was rediscovered in 1989 after an absence of more than 100 years, while the New Zealand storm petrel, a seabird, was thought to have vanished a century and a half ago – it was only known from museum specimens – until it was rediscovered in 2003, and India's large-billed reed warbler was thought to have died out a similar time ago, until it was rediscovered in 2006.

Why have we labelled so many things extinct when they are not?

Perhaps because of the old sin of the pride of knowledge (which was Adam's sin, if you remember); we really enjoy saying I know. It is much more tempting for humans to express certainty about a point than to express doubt, and because we are generally anthropocentric – that is, we put ourselves at the centre of the universe – we tend to think that if we can't see something, then it's not there.

We forget that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence – it's harder to prove something isn't, than it is to prove something is. And we also forget that while life in the natural world can be fragile, it can also be astonishingly resilient, and capable of clinging on against all expectations.

There have been so many recent rediscoveries of supposedly vanished birds – five in New Zealand alone – that, last month, BirdLife International, the Cambridge-based global partnership of bird protection organisations, was prompted to launch a campaign to try to confirm the continued existence of no fewer than 47 bird species, which have not been seen for up to 200 years.

Such as the dodo?

No, not the dodo, although that would be the supreme example of what some biologists now call a "lazarus species" – one that comes back from the dead – as the dodo is our most familiar icon of extinction (greatly helped by its appearance in Alice in Wonderland). But the list included birds from every continent, ranging forward from the hooded seedeater of Brazil, not recorded since 1823. Marco Lambertini, BirdLife's chief executive, said that some of these species had not been seen by any living person, but birdwatchers around the world still dream of rediscovering "these long-lost ghosts".

Why not the dodo?

The dodo was a big-beaked, fat, flightless pigeon confined to the island of Mauritius in the Indian Ocean. It was discovered by Dutch sailors in 1571; by 1700, it had disappeared. The cause of its extinction was probably a combination of hunting and the destruction of its habitat following the introduction of European domestic animals, such as pigs. As its range was so small and restricted, and it could not fly anywhere else, this is one case where we can be certain that extinct really means extinct.

We can also say that for the passenger pigeon, which is the great symbol of extinction in the United States. This bird once flocked in countless millions across the Great Plains but, in the late 19th century, it was hunted with such systematic ferocity that by 1914 there was only one bird left – named Martha – and she died that year in Cincinnati Zoo. No one thinks we'll find the passenger pigeon again.

Then what sorts of supposedly 'extinct' creatures might we rediscover?

Ones that live in places largely inaccessible to humans, such as the open ocean, remote islands or deep forests. In terms of birds, at the top of the list is America's ivory-billed woodpecker, a wonderfully charismatic creature that has not been reliably recorded in the US since 1944, although there have been countless unverified sightings; in 2005, a group of senior US ornithologists sensationally claimed to have rediscovered it in the forests of Arkansas, but their claim has been strongly disputed and not since backed up. However, to find the ivory bill remains the holy grail of birdwatching in the US, and perhaps in the world.

What sort of 'extinct' mammals might we rediscover?

Some of the rhino species, perhaps, in dense south-east Asian forests; perhaps the tiger in regions of central Asia, such as Iran; a range of smaller creatures. The most beguiling possibilities were suggested by a Belgian zoologist, Bernard Heuvelmans, in a riveting book published in 1955 entitled On The Track Of Unknown Animals. This was a calm look at all the legends of mysterious beasts – from the Yeti, or Abominable Snowman, down – that did not necessarily offer conclusions, but made interesting suggestions.

The most fascinating of all concerned the woolly mammoth, which died out about 8,000 years ago, although a population is known to have clung on in Wrangel Island, off the coast of Siberia, until about 3,500 years ago (when the pyramids of Egypt were already well established). Quoting accounts from hunters, Heuvelmans suggested that a few mammoths might still survive in the taiga, the vast evergreen forests that stretch, largely unpenetrated, for thousands of miles across Siberia's whole breadth. It has to be said that Heuvelmans's book was the foundation for what is known today as cryptozoology, an interest which at its wackier, New Age end, concerns itself largely with legendary creatures such as the Loch Ness Monster and the Bigfoot of the American north-west. But Heuvelmans himself was a sober investigator.

How great would it be if we could rediscover the mammoth?

It would be even greater if we could not lose the tiger. Although the possibility of "lazarus species" is intriguing, it is not half as important as holding on to the species we already have – some of which are daily ever-more threatened.

And as the human pressure on the natural world grows more and more intense, for the ones that we lose in future, extinction really is likely to mean extinction.

Might an 'extinct' animal like the woolly mammoth still survive somewhere?

Yes

*Even today there are some vast areas, such as the taiga forest in Siberia, which are still unpenetrated by humans

*Experience shows that sometimes small numbers of rare species can cling on unknown for a very long time

*The natural world has a habit of surprising us

No

*It was not just hunting but global climate change that drove the mammoth to extinction

*There would have been clear, recorded human contact had any mammoths still survived

*It is simply too long since the species died out to think that a few individuals might have carried on

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