Sabah seeks technical and financial help to conserve forests

The Star 27 Oct 09;

KOTA KINABALU: Sabah is hoping to get more technical and financial assistance from foreign governments, non-governmental orga-nisations and companies to further improve environmental and forest conservation efforts in the state.

“Of course we would like our friends from the US and European Council to come and help conserve the forests,” said Chief Minister Datuk Musa Aman.

He said the state, through the Sabah Forestry Department, was using all the resources at its disposal to conserve vast tracts of remaining forests – even to the extent of halting logging operations in an area about 10 times the size of Penang island.

“Our forestry officers have done a good job. The department (Forestry Department) is serious and committed and yet not many people are coming forward to help us.

“More appreciation should be accorded for what we are doing,” Musa said after launching a regional forum on Enhancing Forest Ecosystems, Connectivity and Corridors within the Heart of Borneo in Sabah.”

The Heart of Borneo (HoB) encompasses some 240,000sq km of rainforests within Sabah, Sarawak, Brunei and the Indonesian provinces of East, West and Central Kaliman-tan.

Musa lauded Japanese conglomerate Itochu Corporation for contributing RM4.25mil to restore 967ha of degraded forests in the northern portion of the Ulu Segama forest reserve, an orangutan habitat. The restoration work is jointly done by the Sabah government and WWF-Malaysia.

Musa also said he was grateful to the Federal Government for the RM5mil contribution to kick start the HoB initiative within the state under the Ninth Malaysia Plan with further financial allocations under the 10th Plan.

Earlier, the Sabah Forestry director Datuk Sam Mannan signed a five year memorandum of understanding with PPB Palm Oil Palms Bhd for the management of nearly 383ha of river reserves along the Sungai Segama.

Musa said studies have shown that Sabah is home to about 11,000 orangutans, 30 to 40 Sumatran rhinos and some 2,300 Borneo pygmy elephants.

“This iconic wildlife will slowly cease to exist if forests or their natural habitats are further fragmented. Forest connectivity and corridors are crucial to their survival,” he said.


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Rainforest treaty 'fatally flawed'

Climate summit loophole lets palm oil producers cull vital wilderness
Michael McCarthy, The Independent 26 Oct 09;

A vital safeguard to protect the world's rainforests from being cut down has been dropped from a global deforestation treaty due to be signed at the climate summit in Copenhagen in December.

Under proposals due to be ratified at the summit, countries which cut down rainforests and convert them to plantations of trees such as oil palms would still be able to classify the result as forest and could receive millions of dollars meant for preserving them. An earlier version of the text ruled out such a conversion but has been deleted, and the EU delegation – headed by Britain – has blocked its reinsertion.

Environmentalists say plantations are in no way a substitute for the lost natural forest in terms of wildlife, water production or, crucially, as a store of the carbon dioxide which is emitted into the atmosphere when forests are destroyed and intensifies climate change.

Now they are calling on Britain to take a lead in restoring the anti-plantations safeguard at the final negotiating session in a week's time, saying that otherwise the agreement – which seeks to halve global deforestation rates by 2020 – will be fatally flawed.

"It is a priority for the safeguard to be reinserted, or otherwise we will have a situation where countries are paid for converting their natural forests into palm plantations," said Emily Brickell, the climate and forests officer for the Worldwide Find for Nature (WWF-UK).

"If this is not changed, the agreement will be part of the problem, not part of the solution, because it will allow things to carry on as they are now and we will continue to see the loss of natural rainforest," added Simon Counsell, the executive director of the Rainforest Foundation.

The key piece of text which was lost said that parties to the treaty "shall protect biological diversity, including safeguards against the conversion of natural forests to forest plantations".

It was deleted in closed negotiations but some observers think it was done at the instigation of African rainforest countries, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Cameroon, while other states including Indonesia and Malaysia are believed to have supported it. Both are heavily involved in the oil palm industry, which is a major driver of deforestation because palm oil is used to make biofuels.

A move to reinsert the clause was blocked at the last talks in Bangkok by British officials, who feared that the gains of the week's negotiations (the text was reduced from 19 pages to nine) would be lost if the text were reopened. Green campaigners accept that this was a matter of procedure but think it will have been a disastrously bad call if officials do not move swiftly to replace the lost text at the final negotiations in Barcelona, beginning a week today.

"The EU has to make sure the wording goes back in," said Charlie Kronik, of Greenpeace. "It's absolutely essential, otherwise it leaves open the possibility of removing intact, high-value forests and replacing them with oil palms as party of the treaty."

The Department of Energy and Climate Change said: "The UK is pushing hard for the strongest possible deal to stop deforestation and that includes wanting specific language in the UN text on the protection of natural forests."

The proposed forest pact, which could be one of the most positive outcomes of the Copenhagen summit, addresses the fact that deforestation, mostly in Central and South America, Africa and Asia, now produces nearly 20 per cent of annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions – more than from all the world's transport. Many policymakers consider that the key goal of limiting global warming to no more than C above the pre-industrial level will be unattainable unless the problem of deforestation emissions is tackled. The issue, which has become known in official jargon as Redd (reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries), now has a section to itself in the proposed Copenhagen accord.

Nearly 200 countries will meet in December to try to frame a new treaty that would put the world on a path towards cutting CO2 emissions by 80 per cent by 2050. Scientists say this is the very minimum that can be done to keep temperature rises below C, which is regarded as the threshold of climate change that presents a real threat to humans society. Last week, British government scientists said a potentially disastrous rise of 4C by 2060 was on the cards if emissions continued to rise at their present rate.

The Copenhagen accord, if signed, will replace the 1997 Kyoto protocol. A deal will depend on developing nations such as China and India cutting pollution because their growing economies will be responsible for 90 per cent of CO2 emissions growth in the future.

Historic chance to halt the scourge of deforestation
The Independent 26 Oct 09;

In the first of a landmark series on issues behind the climate summit, Michael McCarthy explains why a 'Redd' treaty is vital to cut CO2

At last, the wreck of the rainforests is being tackled. One of the key parts of the Copenhagen climate agreement which the international community will try to construct in December is a comprehensive treaty aiming to reduce deforestation rates in the developing countries by at least 50 per cent by 2020.

Not before time. It has been 20 years since we woke up to the reality of large-scale rainforest loss: in the late 1980s, the terrible scale of destruction in regions such as the Brazilian Amazon, and later, in Indonesia and other areas, dawned on the world, but in the time since then, all we have been able to do, in effect, has been to wring our hands.

Deforestation was clearly terrible for wildlife, for the indigenous peoples of the forests, and for the "ecosystem services", as the modern jargon has it, which forests provide, such as climates which bring rain. But the whole process seemed so vast, the huge socio-economic forces behind deforestation in the developing countries so intractable, that it seemed impossible that anything could be done to stop it or even slow it.

Active content removed by CSIT Things have changed, and the change can be summarised in a single word: carbon. For, as the threat of climate change has become more and more clear, there has been an growing perception that the biggest benefit of all that rainforests provide is their function as a carbon store, and the biggest danger from their destruction is the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere when they are cut down and burnt.

This is happening on a tremendous scale. In a band around the tropics, shown in the red in our map, about 13 million hectares of natural forest are being chainsawed and burnt every year – an area about the size of England – and the CO2 emissions released total about 5.8bn tonnes annually.

This is almost as much as the emissions of the US or China, the two biggest carbon emitters; it is nearly 20 per cent of the global total, more than the whole of the transport sector across the world, which has always been considered one of the major difficulties in dealing with climate change.

The deforestation emissions of Indonesia and Brazil, for example, are now so great that they propel those countries to fourth and fifth place respectively in the world emissions table although, if their places are based just on burning fossil fuels, they are much lower.

It has become clear to policymakers that the now generally accepted goal of reducing global emissions by 80 per cent by 2050, in the hope of keeping the rise in temperatures to two degrees above the pre-industrial level – thought of as the danger threshold – will be impossible without tackling forest emissions.

So when the Coalition for Rainforest Nations, a grouping of 40 countries with substantial forest holdings from Costa Rica to Papua New Guinea, proposed in 2005 that there could be an agreement – we preserve our forests, you in the rich world pay us to do so – they were met with a sympathetic response.

The issue is known as Redd, reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries,and you will be increasingly hearing the unfamiliar acronym as the Copenhagen meeting approaches. For Redd is now a key part of the treaty negotiating process under which, it is hoped, the developing countries will agree to tackle their own, mushrooming greenhouse gases, in return for billions of dollars of new aid.

The principal objective of the Redd agreement, put forward by the EU, with Britain leading in the negotiations, is that "all parties should collectively aim at ... reducing gross deforestation in developing countries by at least 50 per cent by 2020 compared to current levels."

That is widely supported by environmentalists. But another phrase in the objective, more supported by tropical nations with big logging industries, is also that "all parties should aim at halting forest cover loss in developing countries by 2030 at the latest". To decode the text, "reducing gross deforestation" means in essence slowing the rate at which you cut down your virgin, natural forests.

But "halting forest cover loss" means you can cut down the forests but replace them with other trees, so that "forest cover", the general area covered in trees, remains the same.

These other trees are likely to be commercial monocultures such as eucalyptus or oil palms, not remotely as valuable ecologically, or as a store of carbon, as virgin forest, and although it might be better to have those trees growing than bare ground, many environmentalists would stress that not cutting the virgin forest down in the first place is the best option of all.

The text is still up for negotiation, but the fact that two potentially conflicting stances can be part of the same first sentence of the proposed treaty shows what a difficult matter it is on which to reach agreement.

Even so, both parts of the objective constitute an ambitious aim, and the use of the phrase "all parties" indicates that we are all in this together; if they are going to stop deforestation in the developing world, we in the rich world have got to help them.

One of the key aspects of Redd is that is conceived of at a national level; before, attempts at preventing deforestation tended to be local projects. Now whole countries are being asked to lower their deforestation rates, if we finance it. How are we to do so?

There are three options. The first is to supply substantial new aid funding; the second is to let countries with high deforestation rates generate "carbon credits" from the forests they preserve, which could then be sold on the growing international carbon market; the third is a mixture of both.

Using the carbon market is the most controversial, because some policymakers feel this will provide a vast pool of emissions credits which western countries can buy and thus escape much of the obligation to cut back on emissions of their own (Brazil's rule of thumb is that a hectare of forest holds a tonne of carbon).

There are further objections, such as the "permanence" of the forest which has generated a carbon credit by being left uncut. What happens if it is subsequently cut down, or burnt, or even dies off because of climate change? But others feel the carbon market will be an essential tool, not least as the total funding needed is likely to be very substantial.

Last year, Johan Eliasch, a Swedish-born, London-based businessman with environmental interests, was asked by Gordon Brown to report on how the preservation of global forests could be financed. Mr Eliasch estimated that, according to one scenario, this could cost between $18n and $26bn annually, with perhaps $7bn of the funding coming from the carbon market. The rest would have to be found by the developed countries.

It'is an enormous sum, but Eliasch thought it was worth it. "Saving forests is critical for tckling climate change," he said. "Without action on deforestation, avoiding the worst aspects of climate change will be next to impossible."


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International palm oil stategy falters as producers question emission cuts

Insiders say international initiative to set environmental standards for palm oil production is 'on brink of collapse'
David Adam, guardian.co.uk 26 Oct 09;

An international effort to ensure that biofuel used by Britain and other western countries to tackle global warming does not damage the environment is on the brink of collapse.

The Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), an initiative of companies and campaigners, is divided over the need to control carbon emissions and could break up within days, insiders say.

The move could have significant implications for the UK government, which is relying on the project to defuse criticism that Britain's biofuel policies will help destroy rainforest and worsen climate change.

Ministers last year introduced a demand on fuel suppliers to replace 2.5% of petrol and diesel sold with biofuel, at least 8% of which is currently palm oil, though the volume used is expected to increase as biofuel use expands. Palm oil is one of the cheapest biofuels and several UK power stations that could burn it to generate electricity are in the pipeline.

The RSPO was established to set and enforce environmental standards for palm oil production, but has run into trouble after palm plantation companies in Indonesia and Malaysia blocked efforts to curb their greenhouse gas emissions.

"If this issue is not resolved and greenhouse gas emissions are not included in the standard, then I don't see how the RSPO can continue to act as a certifying body," said Marcus Silvius of environment group Wetlands International, who sits on the RSPO's working group on greenhouse gases. "It's a crucial moment. If we don't get agreement on this, then I think a large number of stakeholders will consider withdrawing." The issue will be discussed again at an RSPO meeting this weekend, and needs the support of the companies to be approved.

Tim Killeen, who represents Conservation International on the roundtable, said: "Failure to reach a compromise would be a serious blow to the credibility of the RSPO. I find it hard to believe that in 2010 people will accept a definition of sustainability that does not explicitly address the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."

RSPO representatives from the Indonesia and Malaysia palm oil firms would not comment. A position paper from Malaysia's Sarawak Oil Palm Plantation Owners Association (pdf) attacks RSPO plans to ban new plantations on peatland, which produce significantly higher greenhouse gas emissions. It says: "Peatlands worldwide, including those from temperate countries, are being utilised for commercial purposes, so why can't we allocate part of our precious resources for oil palm to generate revenue for local people?"

The Indonesian Oil Palm Research Institute said: "Unfortunately the work of the [RSPO working group on greenhouse gases] has solely covered environmental issues and totally missed out economic and social aspects. In addition, we found many gaps in current research findings which create uncertainties."

Under plans to be discussed at UN climate talks in Copenhagen in December, tropical nations such as Malaysia and Indonesia could be compensated if they leave such forests standing, rather than replacing them with planted oil palm. But this so-called Redd scheme is yet to be finalised, and there is no guarantee that the Copenhagen talks will set up the financial mechanisms required.

Johan Verburg, who represents Oxfam in the RSPO, said global brands, retailers and banks have not yet given a clear signal on if or how they will value efforts by palm oil producers to address carbon emissions.

"Realistically, it was an illusion to think that producers would voluntarily commit to short-term measures in the absence of global compensation mechanisms," he said. "Although results as yet are disappointing, I believe it is too early to speak about a failure. However, the current situation shows it is even more urgent for palm oil sourcing companies in the UK and elsewhere to express their need for sustainable palm oil."


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Few surprises in latest CITES Proposals, but sparks may fly

TRAFFIC 26 Oct 09;

Gland, Switzerland, 26 October 2009—the Secretariat of CITES (the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora) has today revealed most of the list of just over 40 proposed changes in CITES trade rules that will be discussed along with a range of other policy and implementation issues at the forthcoming Conference of the Parties taking place next March in Qatar (CoP15).

CITES CoP meetings occur every three years and changes to trade rules, through amendments to the CITES Appendices can have profound conservation implications for affected species. The listing of a species in Appendix I effectively prevents all commercial international trade, while those listed in Appendix II can be traded under special permit conditions.

Proposals for the CoP15 include species familiar in CITES debate, like the African Elephant, some that were rejected at the previous meeting (CoP14) in The Hague, Netherlands in June 2008 and a number of new issues for consideration by member countries.

Sure to be controversial is a proposal by Kenya, supported by several other African governments, that they hope would block any attempts by other countries to gain CITES endorsement of further legal ivory sales before at least 2028. The same proposal also aims to put an end to the currently approved legal export of carved ivory items from Namibia and Zimbabwe by tourists.

In conflict with this proposal are requests from Zambia and Tanzania to transfer their African Elephant populations from Appendix I to Appendix II in order to allow one-off sale of government-owned ivory stockpiles.

“The conflicting aims of the Kenyan-led and Tanzania / Zambia proposals are certain to create tension and deep divisions,” said Steven Broad, Executive Director of TRAFFIC International. “We hope that a satisfactory conclusion can be reached that serves the best interests of conservation and that the discussion does not detract from the key problems causing the poaching of elephants, such as the lack of control over illegal domestic ivory markets.”

Also likely to be controversial are proposals to list several marine species in the Appendices.

Top of the list will be Atlantic Bluefin Tuna. Monaco is proposing an Appendix I listing, putting a stop to further commercial trade. The issue has already caused controversy within the European Union, with France’s President Nicolas Sarkozy publicly announcing his support for a commercial fishing ban, but his government then opposing it during a close vote that saw European Union Member States fail to reach the necessary majority to support Monaco’s proposed ban.

Sharks too are sure to cause a stir. At the previous CoP meeting, proposals to list Porbeagle and Spiny Dogfishes in the Appendices were narrowly defeated following strong lobbying by the fishery industry and deep divisions between the CITES Secretariat and the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization about criteria for deciding in what circumstances CITES should play a role in regulating trade in marine species. Both species are once more being proposed for Appendix II listing. The US is also proposing listing a further six shark species, including three hammerheads in Appendix II.

“We can only hope that discussion of these proposals is focused on the critical issues they involve in terms of conservation and international fisheries management,” commented Broad.

“CITES has a key role to play in complementing other conservation and management measures—at national and international levels—for commercially important marine resources.”

“The failure to list Spiny Dogfish and Porbeagle Sharks in 2007 was especially disappointing, but this time we hope that conservation arguments will prevail over institutional politics and that CITES member countries will cut through the rhetoric and look at the hard facts of the problems facing the future of these fisheries if they fail to act now.”

In a similar category are corals, used principally for making jewellery, which were initially accepted for inclusion in Appendix II in June 2007 only for the decision to be narrowly overturned in plenary.

Several Proposals relate to reptiles and amphibians, such as one to downlist certain populations of Nile Crocodile to Appendix II, to reflect the improved conservation status of this species. By contrast, Kaiser’s Spotted Newt has been put forward for Appendix II listing, because of concerns over its levels in trade, as has the Ornate Dabb Lizard, which Israel has proposed is listed in Appendix I, to end its commercial international trade.

The majority of proposals relating to plants concerns Malagasy species being put forward for Appendix II listing.

Brazil is also proposing an Endangered species of Rosewood tree—Aniba rosaeodora—is listed in Appendix II. The species has seriously declined because of over-exploitation for rosewood oil extraction.

TRAFFIC and programme partner IUCN will undertake full analyses of each of the proposals, to investigate whether they meet the appropriate biological and other criteria. Based on these analyses, TRAFFIC will be preparing its Recommendations on Proposals to Amend the Appendices, which will be made available prior to the Meeting.

This will be the first CITES CoP to be held in the Middle East, and TRAFFIC hopes that an additional outcome of the meeting will be greater attention to the need for enhanced regional enforcement co-operation in the region.

The proposals are not the only items on the CoP meeting agenda. There will also be important discussions based on documents submitted in advance of the meeting relating to Tigers, elephants, rhinos and species like the Humphead Wrasse.

Treaty partners learn of 40 proposed wildlife trade rule changes
WWF 26 Oct 09;

Gland, Switzerland - Proposals for tighter trade controls for species such as the Atlantic Blue Fin tuna, sharks and corals have been submitted for the next meeting of parties to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES).

The meeting, which will have changes to trade rules for an unusual proportion of marine species on its agenda, will be held in Quatar in March. Controversy is also expected over conflicting proposals concerning elephants.

WWF especially welcomes the proposal by the Principality of Monaco to list Atlantic bluefin tuna on Appendix I to the convention, which would ban international trade for commercial purposes and was submitted as Atlantic bluefin tuna stocks are declining dramatically because of uncontrolled overfishing.

“An Appendix I listing for Atlantic Bluefin Tuna has become imperative if we are to save the species,” said Amanda Nickson, Director of the WWF International Species Programme.

“If we act now we can secure the future of this species and guarantee that fishing can be resumed in the future, but at a sustainable level.”

WWF was also encouraged to see that proposals to list several shark species on Appendix II, which allows for international trade but imposes strict regulations and requires proof that trade is sustainable and legal, were submitted. Threats such as bycatch and shark finning and illegal fishing and overfishing have caused serious declines in shark populations.

Also proposed for an Appendix II listing were red and pink coral, which are used to make jewellery. Red and pink corals are found throughout the world’s tropical and temperate seas but the absence of effective international trade controls has led to overharvesting.

Elephant debate expected to be controversial

Elephants, one of WWF’s priority species, will be a topic of debate at the CITES meeting as potentially conflicting proposals were submitted for elephants. Kenya submitted a proposal – together with a group of west African countries - that would impose a 19 year ban on other countries seeking permission for one-off ivory sales, such as the one that took place under CITES supervision in 2008, and that would suspend the legal sale of ivory souvenirs in Namibia and Zimbabwe.

One the other hand, Zambia and Tanzania submitted proposals that would have elephant populations within their borders moved from Appendix I to Appendix II in order to ease the permitting rules for trophy hunting and allow for the sale of government-owned ivory stockpiles.

“WWF recognizes that some southern African Elephant range States have successfully demonstrated that their populations should be placed on Appendix II," said Nickson.

"However, Tanzania and Zambia have yet to prove their case by demonstrating that their management of ivory stockpiles is adequate enough to prevent laundering of poached ivory.

“And while we acknowledge the concerns that have motivated Kenya’s proposal, we must focus not forget to address what WWF sees as the main issue driving elephant poaching – that is, unregulated domestic markets in central and West Africa.”

Two other of WWF’s priority species that were not the subject of listing proposals but that will be discussed at the meeting are tigers and rhinos, which are both critically endangered and are being poached in order to feed the illegal market for their parts and derivatives. Tiger numbers could now be as low as 3,200 and rhino poaching has reached a 15 year high according to new research released this summer.

WWF will now engage with its partners TRAFFIC and IUCN, which will do a full analyses of the proposals in order to assess whether or not they meet the criteria required for a species to be listed in the CITES appendices. WWF will formulate its position on each proposal based on this analysis.

“WWF looks forward to the CITES meeting,” said Ms Nickson. “There has never been a meeting where marine animals featured so prominently. Now is an opportunity to show that CITES has the capacity to address the pressing issues concerning the trade in these species.”


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The truth about the disappearing honeybees

Marcelo Aizen and Lawrence Harder, New Scientist 26 Oct 09;

A MOVIE called "Vanishing of the Bees" opened in cinemas across the UK earlier this month. It's a feature-length documentary about the "mysterious collapse" of the honeybee population across the planet - a phenomenon that has recently attracted a great deal of attention and hand-wringing.

The idea that bees are disappearing for reasons unknown has embedded itself in the public consciousness. It is also a great story that taps into the anxieties of our age. But is it true? We think not, at least not yet.

First, the basics. Pollination by bees and other animals - flies, butterflies, birds and bats - is necessary for the production of fruits and seeds in many wild and cultivated plants. More than 80 per cent of the planet's 250,000 species of flowering plants are pollinated by animals.

Agriculture is a large-scale beneficiary of these pollination services, so claims that pollinators are in decline have triggered alarm that our food supply could be in jeopardy, that we may be on the verge of a global "pollination crisis".

Claims of such a crisis rest on three main tenets: that bees are responsible for the production of a large fraction of our food; that pollinators are declining worldwide; and that pollinator decline threatens agricultural yield. Numerous scientific papers, many media stories and even a European Parliament resolution in 2008 present each of these as an uncontested truth. But are they?

Our analysis of data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reveals a different perspective on the pollination crisis - one that is less catastrophic than that depicted in the movies (Current Biology, vol 18, p 1572, and vol 19, p 915).

The first tenet - that bees are responsible for the production of a large fraction of our food - is simply untrue. Pollinators are important for many crops, but it is a myth that humanity would starve without bees.

About 70 per cent of the 115 most productive crops, including most fruits and oilseeds, are animal-pollinated. These account for nearly 2.5 billion tonnes of food a year, about a third of global agricultural production. However, few of these crops depend on animal pollination completely, owing largely to their capacity for self-pollination.

On top of that, production of many staple foods does not depend on pollinators at all: carbohydrate crops such as wheat, rice and corn are wind-pollinated or self-pollinated. If bees disappeared altogether, global agricultural production would decrease by only 4 to 6 per cent.

What of pollinator decline? Claims of global bee disappearance are based on collections of (often extreme) regional examples, which are not necessarily representative of global trends. These examples tend to come from parts of Europe and North America where little natural or semi-natural habitat remains.

Stocks of domesticated honeybees, the most important crop pollinator of all, have also decreased considerably in the US and some European countries in recent decades. However, these declines have been more than offset by strong increases in Asia, Latin America and Africa. Indeed, the number of managed honeybee hives worldwide has increased by about 45 per cent in the past five decades.

There have also been scare stories about "colony collapse disorder" and the spread of Varroa mites in the US and Europe. Again, these are real phenomena, but they are short-term blips rather than the driving forces of long-term trends. Instead, the long-term declines seem to be consistent with the economic dynamics of the honey industry, which seems to be shifting to developing countries in search of cheaper production.

Finally, does a low abundance of pollinators significantly affect agricultural productivity? It is true that a lack of pollinators, especially bees, can limit the yield of many crops and wild plants. It is also true that the yields of many pollinator-dependent crops have grown more slowly than that of most non-dependent crops. However, contrary to what we would expect if pollinators were in decline, the average yield of pollinator-dependent crops has increased steadily during recent decades, as have those of non-dependent crops, with no sign of slowing.

Overall, we must conclude that claims of a global crisis in agricultural pollination are untrue.

Pollination problems may be looming, though. Total global agricultural production has kept pace with the doubling of the human population during the past five decades, but the small proportion of this that depends on pollinators has quadrupled during the same period. This includes luxury foods such as raspberries, cherries, mangoes and cashew nuts. The increased production of these crops has been achieved, in part, by a 25 per cent increase in cultivated area in response to increased demand for them.

This expansion may be straining global pollination capacity, for two reasons. Demand for pollination services has grown faster than the stock of domestic honeybees, and the associated land clearance has destroyed much of the natural habitat of wild pollinators.

The accelerating increase of pollinator-dependent crops therefore has the potential to trigger future problems both for these crops and wild plants. These problems may grow as decreasing yields of raspberries, cherries and the rest prompt higher prices, stimulating yet more expansion of cultivation. So although the current pollination crisis is largely mythical, we may soon have a real one on our hands.

Marcelo Aizen is a researcher at the National Scientific and Technical Research Council of Argentina

Lawrence Harder is a professor of pollination ecology at the University of Calgary in Alberta, Canada


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Sustainable fishing: Casting a net far into the future

Phil MacMullen, BBC Green Room 26 Oct 09;

Debates surrounding sustainable fishing are often framed in terms of how initiatives do or do not benefit the seafood industry, or fishermen themselves. In this week's Green Room, Phil MacMullen argues that these distinctions are far less important than the goal of sustaining the ocean ecosystem and the bounties it provides.

Food security is now recognised as a key global issue and fish should be playing an important part in providing that security.

This challenge has now been acknowledged at all levels, from the UN to consumers.

Global seafood consumption doubled between 1970 and 2000. The global population grew but increasing affluence and awareness of the health benefits of seafood also resulted in an increase in per capita consumption.

Capture fisheries have produced around 85 million tonnes annually since the mid-1980s with the gap between wild supply and overall demand filled by aquaculture.

With farmed fish feed containing less and less fishmeal, we're currently enjoying a period of stability in global seafood markets.

But it's plain that more people mean more pressure on the planet. Our seas and oceans need a better legal framework for managing the marine environment.

This must work for our long-term benefit by balancing the need for conservation against our need for food and other services.

Marine Bills

In the UK, that framework will be provided by Marine Bills currently going through our parliaments.

These will introduce "marine spatial planning" in order to accommodate the demands of a wide variety of commercial activities along with the need to protect special habitats and the wider marine environment.

The UK seafood industry supports this approach because it depends on a healthy marine environment.

But making marine planning work fairly and effectively is going to be very challenging: we all have to agree what we need to achieve through an inclusive process and we must base our decisions on the best possible information.

A broad seafood industry perspective is that fishermen must be recognised as an essential part of building a sustainable future for the marine environment.

Fishing and conservation are natural bedfellows. There's no reason why fishing shouldn't continue indefinitely and play its part in providing food for the future.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a key part of the Marine Bills. Designation will result in management arrangements that should protect the conservation status of each MPA.

But two contrasting approaches to this are apparent; one seems to view MPAs as a panacea to all the problems we face providing that a given proportion of our sea areas is designated for protection.

The other recognises that, whilst the principle is sound, each site must be identified on the basis of good evidence - including its ecological and human characteristics - and managed in order to achieve clear and measurable objectives.

The panacea proponents frequently claim that an MPA will automatically benefit commercial fisheries. A more measured approach will tell us that there may be fisheries benefits but these must be considered a bonus.

This confusion arises because most experience of MPAs comes from tropical or semi-tropical areas, often based on complex, reef-type habitats.

Most commercially exploited species in these habitats tend to be territorial, so restricting fishing will result in an increase in their populations.

In UK waters, however, most commercial finfish species range fairly widely so relatively small-scale MPAs will have little or no impact upon their status. On the other hand, many commercially important populations of shellfish in UK waters, such as lobsters and scallops, could benefit from carefully planned MPAs.

Spatial measures work well in fisheries management but are not the same as the conservation MPA approach.

Industry role

Global studies have demonstrated that successful MPA designation and management require the involvement of fishermen.

They can help to identify seabed features, collect environmental data and monitor sites. Involvement builds trust and can help to ensure appropriate, rather than aspirational, designation.

The industry also innovates in fisheries management. In recent years, the UK fishing industry has become more modern, efficient, forward-looking and environmentally conscious.

Measures to manage fishing effort and protect spawning areas have been introduced voluntarily by fishermen.

The Trevose Box was agreed between Cornish and continental fishermen and closes an area of 3600 square miles off North Cornwall each year to protect spawning flatfish.

In Scotland, the Conservation Credits Scheme allows fishermen to top up their days at sea allowance in return for conservation measures.

In Shetland, local fishermen have an agreement to limit sandeel catches to ensure adequate food for seabirds. These schemes are fully endorsed by groups like WWF and RSPB.

Fishermen have been an easy target for much that is wrong with the marine environment today but that's not fair. The industry has changed and we all need to look further ahead to some much more fundamental problems.

All that we have all been working for will come to nothing if we cannot address the problem of ocean acidification that is resulting from increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

Put simply, if we don't resolve this one we will lose most of the services that our oceans provide, including providing us with 50% of our life-giving oxygen.

We must work together to create a sustainable marine environment for future generations, and we must conserve our oceans - one of mankind's greatest natural resources really is under threat.

Phil MacMullen is head of environmental responsibility at Seafish, an industry-funded body that aims to "support the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future".

The Green Room is a series of opinion articles on environmental topics running weekly on the BBC News website.


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Comets Didn't Wipe out Sabertooths, Early Americans?
Richard A. Lovett, National Geographic News 23 Oct 09;

A comet impact didn't set off a 1,300-year cold snap that wiped out most life in North America about 12,900 years ago, scientists say.

Though no one disputes the occurrence of the frigid period, known as the Younger Dryas, more and more researchers have been unable to confirm a 2007 finding that says a collision triggered the change.

The earlier study says the drop in temperature, plus fires from the purported impact, wiped out sabertooths, mastodons, and other giant animals, and may have caused the decline of an early civilization known as the Clovis culture.

The 2007 research was based on a combination of archaeological artifacts and extraterrestrial magnetic grains in soil samples found in a thin layer of sediment throughout North America.

The original team, led by Richard Firestone, a nuclear chemist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, also found what he said are traces of charcoal and microscopic bits of carbon from intense fires ignited by the collision.

However new research, presented at a meeting of the Geological Society of America this week in Portland, Oregon, has taken aim at all of these findings.

Wetlands and Mini-Meteorites

Nicholas Pinter, a geologist at Southern Illinois University, argued that black mats described as charcoal in the 2007 research weren't actually charcoal.

Instead they were from ancient, dark soil formed in a long-ago wetland, Pinter said.

"It's a misunderstanding of what these layers represent."

Likewise, the small amounts of carbon "are not uniquely associated with high-intensity fire," he said.

As for the magnetic grains, they may well have come from outer space, he said.

But the grains are likely from the 30,000 tons of tiny meteorites that fall to Earth each year.

He found such grains in equal or greater concentrations at many other layers dating to other time periods.

Evolution of Style

Vance Holliday, an archaeologist at the University of Arizona, added that there is no sign that the demise of the Clovis culture was caused by a comet crash.

Around the time of the cold snap, the style of spearpoints changed—which Firestone and colleagues argued was evidence that the Clovis peoples had declined due to the comet impact.

But Holliday said it reflects a normal evolution in preference. He compared spearpoint designs to the appearance—and disappearance—of tail fins on classic automobiles.

"We really don't know what style means in the archaeological record," he said. Tastes "come and go. We don't know why."

But "an extraterrestrial impact is an unnecessary solution for an archaeological problem that doesn't exist."

Sticking to His Guns

Firestone, the original proponent of the comet theory, is sticking to his guns.

Though no one can prove the Clovis disappeared, the total number of spearpoints plummeted after the impact, he said by email.

Likewise, other research has shown a gap of more than a hundred years between the Clovis and the ensuing Folsom culture, Firestone pointed out.

As for the other evidence, the comet-impact layer is very thin, he told Australia's Cosmos Magazine, and is easy to miss if samples are diluted with soils from adjacent layers.

University of Southern Illinois' Pinter is also wrong about the charcoal and carbon fragments, he added. These substances are not widespread as soil would be, and are found only in a narrow band of sediment.

In addition, the magnetic grains are not the same composition as what's found in typical tiny meteorites, he added.


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$2bn threat to Australia from rising oceans

Adam Morton and Peter Ker, The Age 27 Oct 09;

In Victoria, the most consistent threat is at Western Port, with nearly one-fifth of the region south-east of Melbourne likely to be inundated, damaging the environment and infrastructure.

About 18,000 Western Port properties valued at nearly $2 billion are considered vulnerable to flood.

Nationwide, more than 700,000 coastal properties with a combined worth of about $150 billion are potentially at risk, the report finds.

In parts of northern Australia, it warns, coastal communities will also become more vulnerable to insect-borne disease, and the celebrated Kakadu National Park's freshwater wetlands faces being flooded with saltwater.

The report by the Standing Committee on Climate Change, Water, Environment and the Arts, calls on Canberra to boost its role in preparing coastal communities for the threats, working with states and local governments. Its recommendations include:

* Increasing biosecurity to protect Australians from dengue fever and chikungunya virus.

*Asking the Productivity Commission to look at the impact of climate change on the insurance industry, including recommending a clear definition of when an insurance claim would be payable after an event triggered by climate change.

*Considering bans on occupation or rebuilding on properties deemed at risk.

*Classifying more coastal wetlands as sites of international significance under the Ramsar convention.

*Expanding research into the impact of climate change on Australian lives, ecosystems and property.

The report calls for the Australian Emergency Management Committee to be charged with improving access and evacuation routes for coastal communities. It compares the potential risks they face to those experienced by people fleeing this year's Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria.

''Evacuation routes were a significant contributing factor to the extent of the tragedy,'' the report says. ''A reliable evacuation route is vital in a disaster management strategy.

''It is therefore imperative that evacuation routes and methods be examined when developing community emergency responses.''

On insect-borne disease, the report says immediate action is needed to get better early warning of threats. ''The significant outbreak, in early 2009, of dengue fever in Cairns, Queensland, with over 1000 cases marks a cause for concern,'' it says.

The emergency committee would also be asked to devise improved early warning systems for coastal areas hit by storm surges, erosion and floods.

The climate change committee cites the advice of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that sea levels are likely to rise about 80 centimetres by 2100.

But the increased potential for storm surges under climate change means properties even further above current sea levels are expected to be at risk.

Climate scientists warn that even a 50-centimetre sea-level rise is expected to increase the number of extreme tidal events by a factor of 300.

The area at risk of storm surges is expected to grow by up to 15 per cent by 2030 and up to 63 per cent by 2070, when what would now be called a ''1-in-100 year storm'' is tipped to hit Victoria at least once in four years.

Western Port is considered particularly environmentally sensitive, with its tidal nature creating valuable mangrove and mudflat ecosystems. It has several marine national parks and is internationally recognised under Ramsar as a wetland of significance for migratory birds.

Greg Hunt, an environmental consultant who works with six local councils around Western Port on climate change issues, said coastal villages in the City of Casey, such as Tooradin, were among the most susceptible to rising sea levels.

He said consideration should also be given to industries supported by the bay, including fishing and agriculture.

''It's not a sexy bay like Port Phillip Bay, with sandy beaches, but it's a very productive area and climate change has the potential to alter that productivity,'' he said.

''If we get inundation of coastal lands by salt water, then that changes and we can no longer grow pastures or at least the same pastures.

''We produce a lot of food from that area, so if their data is correct then our food production is going to have impacts.''

Bittern resident Brian Cuming, who has long campaigned to protect Western Port from what he sees as inappropriate development, said the projections further challenged those wishing to develop the region.

''There will be many sociological concerns about planning, but this reinforces and adds to our concerns about the lack of wisdom in planning an expanded port,'' he said.

Climate Change Minister Penny Wong is expected to deliver the first major assessment of the vulnerability of Australia's coast to sea level rise next month.MORE than 80,000 coastal buildings in Victoria are at risk and large parts of Western Port are likely to be swamped as climate change triggers rising seas, floods and erosion, a report to Federal Parliament has warned.

An 18-month investigation by a House of Representatives committee, backed by members of both major parties, warns the Government that the ''time to act is now'' to prepare thousands of kilometres of Australian coastline for the threat of sea-level rise and extreme weather.

Proposals include improving evacuation routes for coastal communities and introducing early warning systems for coastal areas.

Climate change a threat to coastal development
ABC News 26 Oct 09;

A parliamentary committee on the effect of climate change on Australia's coastline has flagged a plan to ban the occupation of areas threatened by rising sea levels.

The Joint Standing Committee on climate change has called for 2012 to be the Year of the Coast to raise awareness of the dangers posed by rising sea levels as part of a nationally coordinated plan.

The report recommends all governments work together to create a national coastal-zone agreement which would include upgrading the building code to reflect the changing environment.

The climate change committee's chairwoman, Jenny George, says the agreement should replace the current system which she says is complex and highly fragmented.

Ms George says the Productivity Commission should conduct an inquiry into the consequences for the insurance industry, given the concentration of population along Australia's coastline.

"We make several recommendations dealing with insurance and legal matters and how our planning schemes can better respond to projected climate change impacts," she said.

"The vexed issue of insurance cover in vulnerable coastal areas is a matter we recommend be referred to the Productivity Commission for further investigation and consultation with the industry."

The committee recommends that consequences could include a law preventing occupation and development on land threatened by the sea.

Ms George says the law needs to be clarified about who is responsible for protecting property from climate change.

"Uncertainties about legal liability and associated matters was one of the issues most frequently raised in evidence to the committee, particularly by local government authorities," she said.

"In that regard the committee has recommended that the Australian Law Reform Commission undertake an early inquiry into the liability facing public authorities and property owners in respect of climate change."

The committee's deputy chairman, Mal Washer, says there are already significant problems.

"Really, when you go around our coast and we went around and we had a look, there's little in reality left of our coast," he said.

"It's all got groynes or sand bags or pumping sand - its a disaster, its washed away," he said.

The committee also found there needs to be better preparation for major coastal disasters, including improved evacuation routes and early warning systems.

The report called for urgent action to protect Australians from the threat of diseases like dengue fever.

The committee also says there should be a major study into the how vulnerable the Torres Strait Islands are to climate change.

It says the work should be done by the Federal Government in conjunction with Queensland, the CSIRO and Indigenous communities in the Torres Strait.

Development ban flagged for eroding coastline
Naomi Woodley ABC News 27 Oct 09;

A Federal Parliamentary report has raised the possibility of banning human occupation in areas of Australia's coastline threatened by rising sea levels.

The Lower House environment committee has spent 18 months examining the effect the changing climate will have on coastal Australia.

The committee is calling for a new national approach to managing climate change, rising sea levels and coastal erosion in many Australian communities.

The committee's chair, Labor MP Jennie George, wants an all-government ministerial council.

"This would replace what is often described as complex and highly fragmented arrangements currently applying across jurisdictions, sectors and agencies," she said.

The committee wants the Productivity Commission to investigate the implications of climate change for the insurance industry - it is suggested that the Commission look into ways in which the Government could ban occupation or development of land, facing sea hazards.

With 80 per cent of Australia's population based in coastal areas, it is a recommendation that could have significant implications, but it has pleased Alan Stokes from the National Seachange Taskforce.

"There are areas around the Australian coast that are vulnerable to such an extent to the impact of climate change, that there can be no guarantee that people can live there in the future in a sense of security and there is a need to get government agreement on this," he said.

Mr Stokes says the committee's recommendations should be treated as a blueprint for the future of Australia's coastline.

"Unless they're adopted, what we're really looking at is the prospect of losing those attributes in the coast and in coastal communities that people find so attractive at the moment," he said.

Moral issue

While the committee's report may add practical considerations to the current emissions trading debate - politicians will today be urged to also remember the moral implications of the changing climate.

The Chair of the Australian Religious Response to Climate Change, Thea Ormerod, says religious leaders from a range of faiths will be calling for higher emissions targets and more assistance for developing countries, when they meet Government and Opposition MPs in Canberra today.

"I think sometimes people even in the churches tend to see it as a political issue, an economic issue or an environmental issue, but I think there's a growing interest in this as a spiritual and moral issue of our time," she said.

Rising sea levels threatening homes
AAP, The Age 27 Oct 09;

Federal MP Tony Abbott is unconcerned that beachfront areas of his northern Sydney electorate may be inundated by rising sea levels caused by climate change.

Sea levels had risen along the NSW coast by more than 20 centimetres during the past century, the Liberal frontbencher said.

"Has anyone noticed it? No, they haven't," he told reporters in Canberra on Tuesday.

Mr Abbott, whose electorate of Warringah takes in Manly, Harbord, Dee Why Curl Curl and Balmoral, on Sydney's north shore, was responding to a parliamentary inquiry report which canvassed the option of forcing people living near the coast to move from their homes as climate-induced sea levels rose.

Australia had the resources to cope with the issue in "the normal way", he said.

"Ask the Dutch, they've been coping with this kind of thing for centuries and they seem to manage."

Australian Greens leader Bob Brown said a rise in sea levels would cause a big re-alignment of coastal housing and other buildings.

"(Climate Change Minister) Penny Wong herself has said that up to 700,000 properties are threatened this century by rising sea levels on the eastern Australian seaboard," he told reporters.

The government and opposition should be looking at how they would prevent people settling in areas threatened by rising sea levels in coming decades.

Senator Brown had some advice for people already living in areas likely to be under threat.

"Assess your future and become active with the Rudd government and the opposition who simply don't get the need for action on climate change."

Greens climate change spokeswoman Christine Milne said the inquiry's finding revealed a "complete disconnect" between science and the climate change policies of Labor and the coalition.

"This is not just for people on the coast, people who live on estuaries are extremely vulnerable as well," she said, urging householders to check their insurance policies to ensure they were covered for storm damage and flooding.

Senior Liberal senator Eric Abetz admitted he had not read the report, but hoped it was based on sound information.

Sea levels were unlikely to rise overnight, he said.

"So, we've still got some time."

Nationals Senate leader Barnaby Joyce said sea levels had been rising for about 10,000 years.

"And if you wait around they'll cover the flood plains of the major capital cities," he told reporters, adding that a "massive new tax" from an emissions trading scheme (ETS) would not stop the sea rising.

He accused the government of "grossly exaggerating" the effects of climate change to get its package of ETS bills approved by parliament.

Nationals MP Darren Chester rejected suggestions the inquiry's findings were a "wake-up call".

"People are certainly aware of the forecast," he said.

Labor backbenchers Jim Turnour, Graham Perrett and Mark Dreyfus said the report highlighted the need for a vote on the government's carbon pollution reduction scheme before December's UN climate summit in Copenhagen.


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Statisticians reject global cooling

Seth Borenstein, Associated Press Yahoo News 27 Oct 09;

WASHINGTON – Have you heard that the world is now cooling instead of warming? You may have seen some news reports on the Internet or heard about it from a provocative new book. Only one problem: It's not true, according to an analysis of the numbers done by several independent statisticians for The Associated Press.

The case that the Earth might be cooling partly stems from recent weather. Last year was cooler than previous years. It's been a while since the super-hot years of 1998 and 2005. So is this a longer climate trend or just weather's normal ups and downs?

In a blind test, the AP gave temperature data to four independent statisticians and asked them to look for trends, without telling them what the numbers represented. The experts found no true temperature declines over time.

"If you look at the data and sort of cherry-pick a micro-trend within a bigger trend, that technique is particularly suspect," said John Grego, a professor of statistics at the University of South Carolina.

Yet the idea that things are cooling has been repeated in opinion columns, a BBC news story posted on the Drudge Report and in a new book by the authors of the best-seller "Freakonomics." Last week, a poll by the Pew Research Center found that only 57 percent of Americans now believe there is strong scientific evidence for global warming, down from 77 percent in 2006.

Global warming skeptics base their claims on an unusually hot year in 1998. Since then, they say, temperatures have dropped — thus, a cooling trend. But it's not that simple.

Since 1998, temperatures have dipped, soared, fallen again and are now rising once more. Records kept by the British meteorological office and satellite data used by climate skeptics still show 1998 as the hottest year. However, data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA show 2005 has topped 1998. Published peer-reviewed scientific research generally cites temperatures measured by ground sensors, which are from NOAA, NASA and the British, more than the satellite data.

The recent Internet chatter about cooling led NOAA's climate data center to re-examine its temperature data. It found no cooling trend.

"The last 10 years are the warmest 10-year period of the modern record," said NOAA climate monitoring chief Deke Arndt. "Even if you analyze the trend during that 10 years, the trend is actually positive, which means warming."

The AP sent expert statisticians NOAA's year-to-year ground temperature changes over 130 years and the 30 years of satellite-measured temperatures preferred by skeptics and gathered by scientists at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.

Statisticians who analyzed the data found a distinct decades-long upward trend in the numbers, but could not find a significant drop in the past 10 years in either data set. The ups and downs during the last decade repeat random variability in data as far back as 1880.

Saying there's a downward trend since 1998 is not scientifically legitimate, said David Peterson, a retired Duke University statistics professor and one of those analyzing the numbers.

Identifying a downward trend is a case of "people coming at the data with preconceived notions," said Peterson, author of the book "Why Did They Do That? An Introduction to Forensic Decision Analysis."

One prominent skeptic said that to find the cooling trend, the 30 years of satellite temperatures must be used. The satellite data tends to be cooler than the ground data. And key is making sure 1998 is part of the trend, he added.

It's what happens within the past 10 years or so, not the overall average, that counts, contends Don Easterbrook, a Western Washington University geology professor and global warming skeptic.

"I don't argue with you that the 10-year average for the past 10 years is higher than the previous 10 years," said Easterbrook, who has self-published some of his research. "We started the cooling trend after 1998. You're going to get a different line depending on which year you choose.

"Should not the actual temperature be higher now than it was in 1998?" Easterbrook asked. "We can play the numbers games."

That's the problem, some of the statisticians said.

Grego produced three charts to show how choosing a starting date can alter perceptions. Using the skeptics' satellite data beginning in 1998, there is a "mild downward trend," he said. But doing that is "deceptive."

The trend disappears if the analysis starts in 1997. And it trends upward if you begin in 1999, he said.

Apart from the conflicting data analyses is the eyebrow-raising new book title from Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, "Super Freakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance."

A line in the book says: "Then there's this little-discussed fact about global warming: While the drumbeat of doom has grown louder over the past several years, the average global temperature during that time has in fact decreased."

That led to a sharp rebuke from the Union of Concerned Scientists, which said the book mischaracterizes climate science with "distorted statistics."

Levitt, a University of Chicago economist, said he does not believe there is a cooling trend. He said the line was just an attempt to note the irony of a cool couple of years at a time of intense discussion of global warming. Levitt said he did not do any statistical analysis of temperatures, but "eyeballed" the numbers and noticed 2005 was hotter than the last couple of years. Levitt said the "cooling" reference in the book title refers more to ideas about trying to cool the Earth artificially.

Statisticians say that in sizing up climate change, it's important to look at moving averages of about 10 years. They compare the average of 1999-2008 to the average of 2000-2009. In all data sets, 10-year moving averages have been higher in the last five years than in any previous years.

"To talk about global cooling at the end of the hottest decade the planet has experienced in many thousands of years is ridiculous," said Ken Caldeira, a climate scientist at the Carnegie Institution at Stanford.

Ben Santer, a climate scientist at the Department of Energy's Lawrence Livermore National Lab, called it "a concerted strategy to obfuscate and generate confusion in the minds of the public and policymakers" ahead of international climate talks in December in Copenhagen.

President Barack Obama weighed in on the topic Friday at MIT. He said some opponents "make cynical claims that contradict the overwhelming scientific evidence when it comes to climate change — claims whose only purpose is to defeat or delay the change that we know is necessary."

Earlier this year, climate scientists in two peer-reviewed publications statistically analyzed recent years' temperatures against claims of cooling and found them not valid.

Not all skeptical scientists make the flat-out cooling argument.

"It pretty much depends on when you start," wrote John Christy, the Alabama atmospheric scientist who collects the satellite data that skeptics use. He said in an e-mail that looking back 31 years, temperatures have gone up nearly three-quarters of a degree Fahrenheit (four-tenths of a degree Celsius). The last dozen years have been flat, and temperatures over the last eight years have declined a bit, he wrote.

Oceans, which take longer to heat up and longer to cool, greatly influence short-term weather, causing temperatures to rise and fall temporarily on top of the overall steady warming trend, scientists say. The biggest example of that is El Nino.

El Nino, a temporary warming of part of the Pacific Ocean, usually spikes global temperatures, scientists say. The two recent warm years, both 1998 and 2005, were El Nino years. The flip side of El Nino is La Nina, which lowers temperatures. A La Nina bloomed last year and temperatures slipped a bit, but 2008 was still the ninth hottest in 130 years of NOAA records.

Of the 10 hottest years recorded by NOAA, eight have occurred since 2000, and after this year it will be nine because this year is on track to be the sixth-warmest on record.

The current El Nino is forecast to get stronger, probably pushing global temperatures even higher next year, scientists say. NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt predicts 2010 may break a record, so a cooling trend "will be never talked about again."


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U.S. households could cut emissions sharply: study

David Morgan, Reuters 26 Oct 09;

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States could cut climate-changing carbon emissions significantly over the next decade by getting American households to take actions that require no new laws or regulations and no loss of well-being, a report said on Monday.

A research team led by Michigan State University estimated that 7.4 percent of current U.S. emissions -- slightly more than the total emissions of France -- could be eliminated in 10 years if U.S. households became energy-efficient by adopting available forms of technology, including more fuel-efficient cars and home heating systems.

The result could help buy time for the environment while the United States and other countries consider longer-term solutions to reduce carbon emissions such as the cap-and-trade strategy now being debated in the U.S. Congress.

The researchers identified 33 specific energy-saving actions ranging from weather-stripping of homes and using slow-flow shower heads to reducing laundry temperatures and driving at highway speeds of 55 mph and under.

The actions would appreciably reduce energy consumption and either cost little or offer attractive returns on investment without requiring changes in lifestyle.

But the study said comprehensive marketing efforts that combine mass media promotions, community-based information campaigns and informal social pressures with financial incentives would be required to induce enough American households to make the necessary changes.

PROMOTIONAL CAMPAIGN

It pointed to the Obama administration's "cash-for-clunkers" program as an example of a promotional campaign that can change behavior through marketing, financial incentives and consumer convenience. The rebate program resulted in the purchase of nearly 700,000 more fuel efficient cars and trucks.

"Our estimates ... provide a reasonable initial guide to what can be achieved by active promotion," the research team led by Thomas Dietz of Michigan State University wrote in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Direct energy use by U.S. households, including nonbusiness travel, is a leading source of greenhouse gases and accounted for 690 millions tons (626 million metric tonnes) of carbon in 2005. That equals 38 percent of U.S. carbon emissions and 8 percent of global emissions -- more than the total emissions of any single country except China.

Dietz, who was joined by colleagues at the University of Michigan, Vanderbilt University in Tennessee and the U.S. National Research Council, said more energy-efficient habits could cut U.S. household emissions by 20 percent in 10 years.

That would be more than all U.S. emissions from the petroleum refining, iron and steel, and aluminum industries, which are among the largest industrial emitters.

The study said similar savings rates could be achieved in Canada and Australia, where carbon profiles are roughly equivalent to those of U.S. households.

The study sought to gauge the responsiveness of American households by looking at studies of behavioral changes that followed interventions on environmental and health topics.

Researchers also used state, city and community programs implemented in response to the energy crises of the 1970s as a basis for their national estimates.

(Editing by Julie Steenhuysen and Mohammad Zargham)

Simple U.S. lifestyle tweaks key in climate change fight: study
Yahoo News 26 Oct 09;

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The United States could cut greenhouse gas emissions by the equivalent of France's total annual emissions by getting Americans to make simple lifestyle changes, like regularly maintaining their cars or insulating their attics, a study showed Monday.

If US households took 17 easy-to-implement actions -- like switching to a fuel-efficient vehicle, drying laundry on a clothesline instead of in a dryer, or turning down the thermostat -- carbon emissions could be cut by 123 metric tons a year by the 10th year, the study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found.

"This amounts to... 7.4 percent of total national emissions -- an amount slightly larger than the total national emissions of France," showed the study led by Thomas Dietz of Michigan State University's department of sociology and environmental science and policy.

"It is greater than reducing to zero all emissions in the United States from the petroleum-refining, iron and steel, and aluminum industries, each of which is among the largest emitters in the industrial sector," the study said.

But the lifestyle changes come with a much smaller price tag and no great change to the way Americans live.

At present, US direct household energy use accounts for 38 percent of the country's carbon emissions, or 626 million metric tons of carbon -- a whopping eight percent of global emissions "and larger than the emissions of any entire country except China."

To quickly bring down those numbers, the researchers suggested greater focus on consumer behavioral changes and less on efforts to develop new technologies and put in place so-called cap and trade regimes.

The researchers grouped 17 actions Americans could take to reduce carbon emissions into five groups: weatherization, switching to more efficient equipment, maintaining equipment, adjusting appliance setting -- such as the temperature on water heaters -- and modifying daily personal use.

The action with the greatest potential to reduce US carbon emissions was the switch to a fuel-efficient vehicle. That alone would, according to the study's model, reduce greenhouse gas emissions by just over five percent by year 10, or by more than 31 million metric tons.

Weatherizing homes by improving attic insulation, sealing or replacing drafty windows and doors, could cut carbon emissions by 21 million metric tons.

Installing energy-efficient appliances to replace those that have reached the end of their useful life would save nearly 12 million metric tons of carbon emissions.

Even seemingly minor steps like not speeding away from a stop sign when driving, regularly maintaining one's car, or turning down the heating at home in the winter to 68 degrees Fahrenheit (20 degrees Celsius), could save between four and eight million metric tons in carbon emissions by year 10.

The lifestyle tweaks and positive results don't have to be limited to the United States, either.

Similar percentage reductions are possible in Canada and Australia, which have carbon profiles comparable to that of the United States, while Europe and Japan could save around half of the US level in percentage terms by getting their citizens to make the same changes, the study said.

Climate Change Begins at Home: Small Steps to Cut Greenhouse Emissions Can Lead to Big Results
A new study shows how household improvements, such as better insulation, could cut U.S. carbon emissions by more than 7 percent
David Biello Scientific American 26 Oct 09;

American homes and their energy consumption account for nearly 40 percent of U.S. emissions, 626 million metric tons of carbon in 2005 alone. But 33 simple actions—ranging from improving the insulation to carpooling—could cut those annual carbon emissions by 123 million metric tons. That savings would more than entirely offset emissions from petroleum refineries, iron and steel works, and aluminum smelters combined.

"We did a careful analysis of the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from changes in energy use by households. We did this by considering not only the hypothetical reduction that would occur if everyone undertook each action but by looking at what is behaviorally realistic," explains ecologist and sociologist Thomas Dietz of Michigan State University, one of the authors of the study laying out the possibilities in this week's Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "A substantial amount of energy use in U.S. households is wasted, and there have been successful programs to eliminate that waste."

Based on this analysis of potential emissions-cutting measures—as well as the success of programs to inspire them—weatherizing homes as well as properly maintaining heating and cooling systems could save more than 37 million metric tons of carbon. Boosting average fuel efficiency in 50 percent of cars from 20.8 miles per gallon to 30.7 mpg—and there are at least 26 vehicles available today that would do that, ranging from compact cars to sport utility vehicles—would save roughly 30 million metric tons. Carpooling, energy-efficient appliances and equipment, and even changing the temperature on washing machines and water heaters also add to the effect. And if 25 percent of drivers went back to driving 55 miles per hour on the highway, nearly eight million metric tons of carbon could be avoided each year by reducing fuel consumption 21 percent.

"People are busy, and when you gasp at your energy bill or at the gas pump you don't know what part of that bill is paying for something you want—like heating, cooling and transportation—and what part of it is just wasted," Dietz says. "We need to make it easier for people to make the links and, for some things, like weatherization, help with the up-front costs."

Similar efforts on a regional scale, such as the Hood River Conservation Project, convinced some 85 percent of possible participants to better weatherproof their homes through a mixture of financial incentives, mass media campaigns and other interventions. And the recent national "cash for clunkers" program for trading in old cars for newer, more efficient vehicles was highly popular "because the money was available up front and not as a tax rebate months later," Dietz says. "The paperwork was done by the dealerships not the car buyers, and it was well publicized by the dealers and, we think, by word of mouth," he adds.

Similar efforts to promote solar power in New Jersey, for example, have largely failed because they involve significant paperwork, delays in collecting financial incentives, and incomplete or hidden information. Similarly, programs to weatherize homes as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, better known as the federal stimulus package, may fail because they are not widely known and feature an incentive in the form of a tax credit that could take up to a year to collect. "We have neglected behavioral sciences research on energy since 1980," Dietz notes. "Consumer preferences aren't a given, [or] else there wouldn't be a multibillion dollar advertising industry."

Perhaps the simplest change to make is eliminating so-called "standby" electricity, or the energy needed to run devices, such as televisions, even when they are turned off. The emissions associated with that wasted power amount to an average of more than 94 kilograms of carbon per year for every one of the 111 million households with electricity in the U.S.—more than 10 million metric tons of carbon nationwide every year. A simple power strip that can be flicked off would eliminate all of that.


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U.N. lowers expectations for Copenhagen climate deal

Louis Charbonneau, Reuters 26 Oct 09;

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - The United Nations on Monday lowered expectations for clinching a legally binding agreement at a U.N. climate change summit in Copenhagen in December, saying it might take longer to secure a final deal.

For months Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and other top officials at the United Nations have been urging industrialized and developing nations to overcome their differences so they can "seal the deal" and get a binding agreement in Copenhagen.

But recently U.N. officials and diplomats have said privately that it is unlikely a legally binding deal on reducing greenhouse gas emissions will be clinched at the Copenhagen summit. They have suggested that the most that could be expected was a nonbinding political declaration.

Ban's climate adviser Janos Pasztor made clear that the secretary-general was planning for "post-Copenhagen" talks.

He said Ban believes we must "continue to aim for an ambitious politically binding agreement in Copenhagen that would chart the way for future post-Copenhagen negotiations that lead to a legally binding global agreement."

"Climate change is not going to be resolved in Copenhagen in the next few weeks," Pasztor said. "We always knew that. It's a long-term problem that will be with us for many years, if not decades, to come. So Copenhagen has to be a milestone."

Ban told a gathering of business leaders in Seattle that he still wanted a strong result in Copenhagen. "We will do our best and try to have a substantive agreement," he said.

"After Copenhagen we may not expect ... to agree on all elements," he said. "But we should have a broad agreement."

U.S. ROLE CRUCIAL IN GLOBAL CLIMATE TALKS

Pasztor expressed concern about a new poll showing that the U.S. public was not convinced that the threat posed by global warming was so dire, despite mounting scientific evidence that carbon emissions are harming the climate and the planet.

Ban has repeatedly voiced his concerns about the United States, which had resisted mandatory carbon emissions limits under former President George W. Bush.

Bush's successor, Barack Obama, has reversed U.S. policy on climate change, voicing support for mandatory emission limits and a carbon emission limit trading scheme.

But draft U.S. legislation on climate change is still not ready for approval, and diplomats and U.N. officials say that adoption of the new U.S. legislation will be crucial for securing a global agreement on fighting global warming.

Ban said in Seattle that he was "very encouraged by the strong commitment of the Obama administration."

"The (U.S.) domestic legislation may not be specific enough but it can have a huge impact," he added.

Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen warned international parliamentarians in Copenhagen on Saturday that climate talks have been "painfully slow," saying that they may fail to reach an ambitious agreement in time.

Rasmussen said crucial questions remained unresolved, including the commitment of industrialized nations to mid-term targets to reduce emissions and developing countries' commitments to national steps to curb emissions growth.

(Additional reporting by Laura Myers in Seattle; Editing by Philip Barbara)

Ban lays out criteria for successful Copenhagen gathering on climate change
UNEP 26 Oct 09;

New York, 26 October 2009 - As just over one month remains before nations converge in Copenhagen to 'seal the deal' on a new climate change agreement, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has laid out his four benchmarks for success at the negotiations in the Danish capital.

Firstly, he wrote in an opinion piece in the New York Times published yesterday, every country - developed and developing - must do all it can to slash emissions from all sources, including deforestation and shipping.

"A successful deal must strengthen the world's ability to cope with an already changing climate," Mr. Ban added, stressing that "support for adaptation is not only an ethical imperative; it is a smart investment in a more stable, secure world."

Thirdly, any deal must be backed by funding to allow poorer countries to transition to a low-carbon economy.

Lastly, the Secretary-General wrote, nations must agree on an equitable global governance structure. "All countries must have a voice in how resources are deployed and managed. That is how trust will be built."

Despite the gridlock at the last round of climate change negotiations held in Bangkok, Thailand, earlier this month, "the elements of a deal are on the table," he underscored.

All that is needed to put them in place is political will, Mr. Ban said. "We need to step back from narrow national interest and engage in frank and constructive discussion in a spirit of global common cause."

The leadership of the United States in this endeavour, he said, is vital, noting that he is encouraged by last week's bipartisan initiative in the US Senate.

"We cannot afford another period where the United States stands on the sidelines," Mr. Ban emphasized, adding that an "indecisive or insufficiently engaged" US will result in unnecessary and unaffordable delays in tackling global warming.

With the last round of negotiations before the start of the Copenhagen conference kicking off next week in Barcelona, Spain, "we are now at a rather critical juncture," Janos Pasztor, Director of the Secretary-General's Climate Change Support Team, told reporters today in New York.

There is a flurry of activity in the world's capitals, with this uptick in activity expected to continue during the final stretch before the December summit, he said. "This is a good development as it is only governments who can make the deal and bring us success in Copenhagen."

When leaders assemble in Denmark, they have the ability to "deliver an agreement on a range of fast-track implementation measures for which credible resources are needed and which governments need to make available," Mr. Pasztor stated.

The Secretary-General, he said, is serving as a "neutral broker" among all 192 UN Member States, pressing for an ambitious multilateral deal to ensure that global temperature increases remain within safe levels.


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Combating Climate Change and Realizing Low Carbon Growth in Developing Economies

UNEP 26 Oct 09;

UNEP and Finance Groups Spotlight Transformative Policies to Beat Down the Barriers

Cape Town, 26 October 2009 - Ways of triggering multi-billion dollar, low carbon technology investments in developing economies are outlined in a new report today.

Experts indicate that investments of around US$500 billion a year will be needed to assist developing countries adapt to climate change while powering low carbon growth.

Much of the money will come from the private sector but will only flow if creative public policies that reflect the differing circumstances of developing economies are swiftly adopted, says the report issued by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and a global partnership of investors and insurance companies.

The report, Catalysing Low Carbon Growth in Developing Economies: public finance mechanisms to scale up private sector investment in climate solutions, was prepared by Vivid Economics based on case studies. The report makes several broad recommendations to overcome current hurdles.

1. Country risk cover - Insurance against country risk - i.e. risk of expropriation, breach of contract, war and civil disturbance - should be expanded and explicitly provided to support low carbon funds.

2. Low-carbon policy risk cover - Insurance should be provided where countries renege on policy frameworks / incentive schemes that are underpinning low-carbon investments, e.g. emissions trading, renewable energy support mechanisms.

3. Funds to hedge currency risk - Public finance could provide currency funds which offer cost-effective hedges for local currencies which would otherwise not be available in the commercial foreign exchange markets.

4. Improving deal flow - In order to provide a series of easily executable, commercially attractive projects, vehicles specializing in early-stage low carbon projects could be developed, and technical assistance could be provided to increase demand.

5. Public sector taking subordinated equity positions in funds - the public sector could invest directly in low carbon funds via "first loss equity", thereby improving the overall risk-return profile of such vehicles.

The findings were presented today in Cape Town at the 2009 Global Roundtable of the UNEP Finance Initiative which brings together investors, financial institutions, policymakers and civil society from around the world.

Background

The total investment required to avoid dangerous climate change is more than US$1 trillion per annum, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The World Bank suggests that around half of this will have to be deployed in the developing world.

The public and private sectors have complementary roles to play in meeting this challenge. Demands on public finances are acute, particularly following the recent financial crisis. Private sector investment is therefore critical.

A recent study commissioned by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) says the private sector will have to supply close to 90 percent of the funds needed to meet the climate challenge. However, at present, the private sector is unable to undertake the level of investment needed in developing countries because the returns on low carbon investments are not commensurate with the risks.

Today's report considers how public sector funds can be deployed most effectively to leverage private sector investment in developing countries. This requires an effective distribution of roles between public and private sectors.

It says that through appropriate public finance mechanisms (PFMs), the public sector can assist in managing those risks that the private sector is not able to control and alter the risk reward balance for private investors.

PFMs can also fund the technical assistance required to generate demand for low-carbon projects at a scale likely to be attractive for large private sector investors. Furthermore, PFMs can leverage significant private capital, with previous research suggesting that US$1 of public money spent through well-designed mechanisms can leverage between US$3 and US$15 of private sector investment

One of the report's recommendations is for the establishment of a forum for on-going dialogue between the public and private sectors, to improve the design of the proposals outlined and implement the mechanisms proposed.

Quotes from Partners and Experts

Achim Steiner, United Nations Under Secretary General and UNEP Executive Director, said "Combating climate change represents an important opportunity to move economies onto a low carbon, resource efficient, Green Economy path. If this is to succeed, developing countries should and must be part of that transformation. Today's report underlines a range of public policy options that reflect the varying circumstances currently prevailing in developing economies and show how existing barriers to a Green Economy can be leap-frogged. In doing so it opens the door to a new partnership between North and South."

Lord Stern, Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science, and Special Adviser to the Group Chairman of HSBC, said: "Now is the time for investors and policy makers to work together, not just to limit the severe risks from climate change, but also to seize the opportunities available from low-carbon economic growth. This is a critical moment, with barely 40 days until the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December, when governments from around the world will attempt to agree on a strong and effective international agreement. This report offers valuable examples of how public and private finance can be mobilized effectively to drive the transition to a future era of dynamic low-carbon growth."

Rob Lake, Head of Sustainability at APG Asset Management, a member of IIGCC and P8, said: "Investors are starting to speak with one voice on climate change. We are calling on policymakers to maximise the impact of public funds by using them to enable the private sector to mobilise the capital needed to tackle climate change and finance the transition to a low-carbon economy. We need real partnership if we are to meet this enormous challenge."

Nick Robins, Head of the Climate Change Centre with HSBC, and Co-Chair of the UNEP FI Climate Change Working Group, said: "Investors and policymakers increasingly agree on the need to deploy public finance at the margin to mobilise institutional capital for low carbon growth. This report provides real world insights on how public finance mechanisms can work on the ground. It offers a range of approaches for addressing the risks of low carbon investment in developing countries - thereby unlocking the flow of funds that can deliver both healthy returns and progress towards global climate goals."


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