Ancient coral has climate data

Australian Institute of Marine Science
Science Alert 4 Dec 09;

Massive corals are being used by marine scientists to unravel the effects of climate and environmental change on coral reefs in Australia’s remote north-west. Often referred to as the Methuselah’s of coral reefs because they can be older than 500 years, these massive corals grow in a series of annual bands that store a wealth of information about the environment in which they grow. It is the old skeletal material contained deep within the coral that allows researchers to compare present day growth rates with those pre-dating the industrial revolution and hence examine the consequences of climate change on coral reefs.

The team of scientists, led by Eric Matson and Dr Tim Cooper from the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS), has just returned from Rowley Shoals, approx 300　km west of Broome, with long coral cores up to 350 years old, about the time when Dutch sailors in square-riggers were exploring the west coast of Australia.

Coral reefs are facing a serious crisis in the face of a changing climate. "Since the industrial revolution, levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide have risen from approximately 280 ppm to current day levels of 390 ppm" said Dr Cooper. "As a consequence, seawater temperatures have risen over the past 200 years and evidence is emerging that part of this extra CO2 may be absorbed by the oceans making them more acidic" he said. "These processes have already had a measurable effect on coral growth rates in some parts of the world, including the Great Barrier Reef, but virtually nothing is known about the climate history or growth rates of corals on reefs along Australia’s west coast" said Dr Cooper.

Specialised commercial diving equipment was needed to carefully remove a biopsy of coral skeleton with only minimal stress to the massive corals. "The only living part of massive corals is a thin layer of tissue 0.5-1 cm thick that deposits the coral skeleton beneath it as the coral grows upwards, which look similar to the layers in an onion" said Mr Matson. "We use a hydraulic drill with a diamond-studded bit to remove the core and the hole is plugged when we’re finished to promote a quick recovery from the procedure," he said. "The coral will continue growing and show no effects that a sample of skeleton has been removed from it" said Mr Matson.

Dr Janice Lough, who leads the Responding to Climate Change Research Team at AIMS was excited by the team’s haul of coral cores. "AIMS’ scientists have already detected recent declines in coral growth rates on the Great Barrier Reef but this material from Western Australia will help us determine if western coral reefs are suffering the same fate as their eastern counterparts," she said.

The trip to the Rowley Shoals is part of the first significant long-core sampling effort by the team in WA and follows a trip to Ningaloo Reef last year. The objective of the study is to collect information on the effects of climate change on coral growth rates and reconstruct past marine climate and environmental histories from reefs in the Indian Ocean spanning Indonesia to those adjacent to Perth and compare these with the extensive coral skeletal records for the Great Barrier Reef maintained at the AIMS Townsville facility.

The AIMS WA study will increase scientific knowledge of the region, provide clues to the impacts of climate change on marine communities and assist the development of future sustainability strategies.

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Rising sea level threatens Sunderbans inhabitants

Thaindian News 3 Dec 09;

Sunderbans (West Bengal), Dec.3 (ANI): Rising sea levels has forced thousands of families to leave their ancestral houses and lands in the Sunderbans area of West Bengal, and many more are living in the constant fear of losing theirs.

At least 10,000 inhabitants have been turned into environmental refugees and another 70,000 are in the danger of meeting the same fate over the next thirty years, environmental experts say.

After a 10-year study in and around the Bay of Bengal, oceanographers say the sea is rising at 3.14 millimetres a year in the Sunderbans against a global average of 2 mm, threatening low-lying areas of India and Bangladesh.

Sugato Hazra, an oceanographer at Jadavpur University in Kolkata, the capital of West Bengal, who led the team that conducted the study, said an increase in the sea temperature was compounding the problems for the islanders.

“In Sunderbans the impact (of global warming) is very high because not only the coastline is retreating and we are losing islands and losing land at the rate of say, in 30 years we have lost 90 square kilometre area including two islands. A lot of people have become environmental migrants but also high intensity cyclones are increasing in Bay of Bengal because of the rise in the sea surface temperature,” said Hazra, director of the School of Oceanography at the Jadavpur University.

According to a United Nations climate panel report, human activity was causing global warming and it predicted more droughts, heat-waves and rising seas.

But for the Sunderbans, made up of hundreds of islands, criss-crossed by narrow water channels and home to many of India’s dwindling tiger populations, the threat is more immediate.

At least 15 islands have been affected but erosion is widespread in other islands as well, Hazra said.

A combination of drought and then heavy rainfall this year plus increasing soil salinity have made it impossible to grow enough food to survive on traditional agriculture alone.

At least four million people live in the islands spread across 9,630 sq. km (3,700 sq. miles) of mangrove swamps. (ANI)

Read more: http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/india-news/rising-sea-level-threatens-sunderbans-inhabitants_100283875.html#ixzz0YfnKi1K5

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Guide predicts marine change for Australia

University of Sydney, Science Alert 4 Dec 09;

Dr William Figueira from the School of Biological Sciences has helped to produce the first Australian benchmark of climate-change impacts on marine ecosystems.

The Marine Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Report Card for Australia, launched on Friday 27 November at the Queensland Maritime Museum, provides a biennial guide for scientists, government and the community on observed and projected impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.

Dr Figueira is one of over 70 scientists from more than 35 universities and organisations invited to contribute to the Report Card, which summarises knowledge on climate change impacts over the past decade, predicts what will happen by the end of this century, and offers adaptation responses that can also inform policy makers. This information is compiled on numerous categories under the broad topics of marine climate and marine biodiversity.

"The report card represents a major undertaking by scientists which seeks to clarify the effects of climate change to Australia's oceans and provide a road map for future science in this area," Dr Figueira says.

Along with a team of scientists led by Professor David Booth from the University of Technology, Dr Figueira produced an assessment of the likely impact of climate change on Australia's temperate coastal and demersal fish populations. This information came from primary literature and research conducted by members of the team.

"Our findings on the report card show that fish from south-eastern waters are expanding their range southwards into cooler water," says Dr Figueira.

"For example, we are seeing new species arriving from the north into Tasmanian coastal waters. This movement is linked to warming temperatures and a strengthening of the East Australian Current."

According to Dr Figueira's team, stressors such as overfishing and habitat disturbance are likely to exacerbate impacts of climate change for temperate fish. Their report recommends reducing overfishing and maintaining, restoring and protecting essential fish habitats such as seagrass beds, salt marshes, coral reefs, mangroves and macrolagal beds.

Key concerns from the Report Card include; waters around Australia becoming warmer and more acidic, increases in strengths of major warm-water currents such as the East Australian Current which is predicted to strengthen 20 per cent by 2100, changes in the productivity of marine ecosystems and shifts in the distribution and abundance of species. The Report Card identifies where change is already occurring, likely trends and confidence levels in those trends depending on the state of knowledge. The Director of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF), Professor Jean Palutikof, says the Report Card reflects both the increased bank of knowledge about impacts, and the responses of government, industry and the community.

"Australia needs a guide to likely changes in the marine environment and we feel well-positioned now to bring together the science and the latest climate projections to consider options for adaptation," Professor Palutikof says.

Funded by the Australian Climate Change Science Program,the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, and CSIRO's Climate Adaptation Flagship, the project is an early outcome of a broader national response to climate change being conducted through the NCCARF.
Editor's Note: Original news release can be found here.

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New Zealand scientists learn lessons from Samoa tsunami

NIWA www.scoop.co.nz 4 Dec 09;

Preliminary results from their survey of the physical and human effects of the Samoa tsunami have direct relevance for New Zealand say the scientists involved.

A team of NZ scientists say the results of their field work after the Samoa Tsunami are of interest internationally and here in New Zealand.

The team from the National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and GNS Science spent nearly two weeks in the field: six days in American Samoa and seven days in Samoa. In Samoa, the NIWA / GNS Science delegation was part of a UNESCO–IOC International Tsunami Survey Team.

This project was unique in that it involved a coordinated team of international scientists who sought to collect evidence across a wide spectrum of the tsunami’s impact on communities, individuals, infrastructure, and the environment.

“We broke new ground for the disaster loss assessment research community. Our results illustrate an effective use of cutting edge field methods,” says NIWA’s Dr Shona van Zijll de Jong.

The aim of the visit was to gather a wide range of information to help Samoa, and other Pacific Islands including New Zealand, become better prepared to cope with future disasters.

Samoa, like New Zealand, is vulnerable to a wide range of natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis, cyclones and floods. Samoa’s recent experience with natural disasters, such as the two closely-spaced cyclones in 1990 and 1991, have assisted in better preparing many local communities to withstand the impact of such natural hazards and to plan for the future.

Preliminary results from their survey of the physical and human effects of the Samoa tsunami have direct relevance for New Zealand say the scientists involved.

Size of tsunami

The Samoa tsunami consisted of two to three significant waves; the second wave was said by witnesses to be larger. The delay between the earthquake and the arrival of the first wave was about 10 minutes in Samoa and 20 minutes in American Samoa.

The maximum height reached by the tsunami on the land was 14 metres above mean sea level in Samoa and 10 metres in American Samoa. The furthest inland the waves reached was over 700 metres from the shore.

“This size of tsunami is also possible for New Zealand, equivalent to about a one-in-500 year event for the most populated parts of New Zealand,” says GNS Science spokesman John Callan.

Building damage

Buildings sustained varying degrees of damage. The importance of reinforcement was very clear – traditional light timber buildings were typically completely destroyed at an inundation depth of 1.5m or higher, whereas adding minimal reinforced-concrete columns reduced the damage levels significantly.

Building damage was correlated with water depth, structural strength, shielding, condition of foundations, quality of building materials used, quality of workmanship, and adherence to the building code.

It was also very clear that plants, trees, and mangroves reduced flow speeds and depths over land – leading to greater chances of human survival and lower levels of building damage.

“The same thing will be true in New Zealand as in Samoa: solidly constructed buildings which are appropriately located will survive much better than flimsy buildings right on the beach,” says Dr Stefan Reese of NIWA.

“It’s also clear that practices such as flattening sand dunes or removing beach vegetation would increase the potential for tsunami damage.”

Community response

In Samoa, it was clear that community-based tsunami education activities had saved lives in some areas, while in others there was still some confusion about how to respond.

The impact of the tsunami may have permanently changed residential patterns in Samoa. “Many people are scared of the sea, and people are staying away from devastated villages” says Dr van Zijll de Jong.

“The sea has been a source of livelihood and identity for generations. The violence of the tsunami really shook them. Their sense of personal security and economic well-being is deeply shaken.”

The Government of Samoa is very supportive of communities that want to resettle further inland. However, the families that have moved inland are very aware of the challenges facing them in re establishing their communities, particularly with it now being cyclone season. There is a very strong social fabric in Samoa, through families, villages, religious organisations and right up into government at a local and national level. It is this strong social fabric that strengthens the local, cultural and economic features of the Samoan coastal communities and holds the basis for the resilience that allows people to more quickly recover from disasters says van Zijll de Jong.

The team also found that national and international response to the disaster had been extremely good. The interface between the Government of Samoa and in-coming international, regional and local humanitarian groups who had the capacity to respond to the disaster was impressive.

The team from NIWA and GNS Science was part of a UNESCO-IOC International Tsunami Survey team from New Zealand, Australia, Fiji, French-Polynesia, Italy, Japan, and the USA, in collaboration with teams from several ministries within the Government of Samoa.

The research report and methods are of interest to the local and international disaster loss assessment research community: New Zealand Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management; the World Bank; United Nations Development Programme and Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization)

Samoan Tsunami wave was 46 feet high
Yahoo News 4 Dec 09;

WELLINGTON, New Zealand – The tsunami that killed more than 200 people in the Samoan islands and Tonga earlier this year towered up to 46 feet (14 meters) high — more then twice as tall as most of the buildings it slammed into, scientists said Friday.

New Zealand scientists studying the size, power and reach of the tsunami as part of efforts to guard against future disasters said they found up to three destructive waves were caused by the magnitude 8.0 undersea earthquake in September.

The massive waves that struck Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga totally destroyed traditional wooden buildings, many of them singly story, along the coast while reinforced concrete buildings sustained only minor damage, said Stefan Reese, a risk engineer with New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research.

The waves were up to 46 feet (14 meters) high, Reese told The Associated Press. The scientists measured watermarks on buildings and trees to help confirm the height of the waves.

"In some areas there was virtually nothing left" after the waves reached up to 765 yards (700 meters) inland, Reese said.

Wide reefs saved some villages by helping to reduce the waves' height to about 10 feet (3 meters), Reese said.

The Samoan quake created a sea floor fault up to 190 miles (300 kilometers) long and 23 feet (7 meters) deep.

The Sept. 29 tsunami killed 34 people in American Samoa, 183 in Samoa and nine in Tonga.

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Rich nations to offset emissions with birth control

Radical plan to cut CO2 argues that paying for family planning is developing world is the best bet
John Vidal, guardian.co.uk 3 Dec 09;

Consumers in the developed world are to be offered a radical method of offsetting their carbon emissions in an ambitious attempt to tackle climate change - by paying for contraception measures in poorer countries to curb the rapidly growing global population.

The scheme - set up by an organisation backed by Sir David Attenborough, the former diplomat Sir Crispin Tickell and green figureheads such as Jonathon Porritt and James Lovelock - argues that family planning is the most effective way to reduce the likelihood of catastrophic global warming.

Optimum Population Trust (Opt) stresses that birth control will be provided only to those who have no access to it, and only unwanted births would be avoided. Opt estimates that 80 million pregnancies each year are unwanted.

The cost-benefit analysis commissioned by the trust claims that family planning is the cheapest way to reduce carbon emissions. Every £4 spent on contraception, it says, saves one tonne of CO2 being added to global warming, but a similar reduction in emissions would require an £8 investment in tree planting, £15 in wind power, £31 in solar energy and £56 in hybrid vehicle technology.

Calculations based on the trust's figures show the 10 tonnes emitted by a return flight from London to Sydney would be offset by enabling the avoidance of one unwanted birth in a country such as Kenya. Such action not only cuts emissions but reduces the number of people who will fall victim to climate change, it says.

"The scheme, called PopOffsets, understands the connection [between population increase and climate change]," says the trust director Roger Martin. "It offers a practical and sensible response. For the first time ever individuals, companies and organisations will have the opportunity to offset their carbon voluntarily by supporting projects to provide family planning services where there is currently unmet demand."

In papers released with the launch of the offset scheme, the trust claims that reducing CO 2 by 34 gigatonnes would cost about $220bn with family planning, but more than $1tn with low carbon technologies. The 34 gigatonnes is roughly what the world emits in a year, and would be achieved by cutting the projected global population in 2050 by 500 million.

The world's population, presently 6.8 billion, is increasing by nearly 84 million a year. The growth is equivalent to a new country the size of Germany each year, or a city the size of Birmingham every week. It is expected by the UN to peak at about 9 billion people in 2050. By this time, UN scientists say global carbon emissions must have reduced by at least 80% to avoid dangerous rises in temperature, meaning the carbon footprint of each citizen in 2050 will have to be very low.

"The current level of human population growth is unsustainable and places acute pressure on global resources. Human activity is exacerbating global warming, and higher population levels inevitably mean higher emissions and more climate change victims," said Martin.

The giant carbon footprints of developed countries mean prevented births will save far more carbon than those in developing nations.

However, some development groups opposed the plan. "We are keen that any money raised [from offsets] help the poorest who are most vulnerable to climate change. [But] it would be misleading if it was spent in this way. It should go to [immediate] things like disaster risk reduction, food security and water," said Paul Cook, advocacy director of Tearfund, a faith-based development group.

Population control is highly contentious in rich and poor countries alike Some, such as Jonathon Porritt, the former Sustainable Development Commission chair, have said promotion of reproductive health is one of the most progressive forms of intervention. "Had there been no 'one child family' policy in China there would now have been 400 million additional Chinese citizens," he has said.

But other thinkers, such as the Guardian columnist George Monbiot, say global population increase pales into insignificance when compared with the effect of increased consumption and economic growth.

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Global warming may require higher dams, stilts

Seth Borenstein, Associated Press Yahoo News 4 Dec 09;

With the world losing the battle against global warming so far, experts are warning that humans need to follow nature's example: Adapt or die.

That means elevating buildings, making taller and stronger dams and seawalls, rerouting water systems, restricting certain developments, changing farming practices and ultimately moving people, plants and animals out of harm's way.

Adapting to rising seas and higher temperatures is expected to be a big topic at the U.N. climate-change talks in Copenhagen next week, along with the projected cost — hundreds of billions of dollars, much of it going to countries that cannot afford it.

That adaptation will be a major focus is remarkable in itself. Until the past couple of years, experts avoided talking about adjusting to global warming for fear of sounding fatalistic or causing countries to back off efforts to reduce emissions.

"It's something that's been neglected, hasn't been talked about and it's something the world will have to do," said Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Adaptation is going to be absolutely crucial for some societies."

Some biologists point to how nature has handled the changing climate. The rare Adonis blue butterfly of Britain looked as if it was going to disappear because it couldn't fly far and global warming was making its habitat unbearable. To biologists' surprise, it evolved longer thoraxes and wings, allowing it to fly farther to cooler locales.

"Society needs to be changing as much as wildlife is changing," said Texas A&M biologist Camille Parmesan, an expert on how species change with global warming.

One difficulty is that climate change is happening rapidly.

"Adaptation will be particularly challenging because the rate of change is escalating and is moving outside the range to which society has adapted in the past" when more natural climate changes happened, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief Jane Lubchenco, a marine biologist, told Congress on Wednesday.

Cities, states and countries are scrambling to adapt or are at least talking about it and setting aside money for it. Some examples:

• England is strengthening the Thames River flood control barrier at a cost of around half a billion dollars.

• The Netherlands is making its crucial flood control system stronger.

• California is redesigning the gates that move water around the agriculturally vital Sacramento River Delta so that they can work when the sea level rises dramatically there.

• Boston elevated a sewage treatment plant to keep it from being flooded when sea level rises. New York City is looking at similar maneuvers for water plants.

• Chicago has a program to promote rooftop vegetation and reflective roofs that absorb less heat. That could keep the temperature down and ease heat waves.

• Engineers are installing "thermal siphons" along the oil pipeline in Alaska, which is built on permafrost that is thawing, to draw heat away from the ground.

• Researchers are uprooting moisture-loving trees along British Columbia's coastal rainforests and dropping their seedlings in the dry ponderosa pine forests of Idaho, where they are more likely to survive.

• Singapore plans to cut its flood-prone areas in half by 2011 by widening and deepening drains and canals and completing a $226 million dam at the mouth of the city's main river.

• In Thailand, there are large-scale efforts to protect places from rising sea levels. Monks at one temple outside Bangkok had to raise the floor by more than 3 feet.

• Desperately poor Bangladesh is spending more than $50 million on adaptation. It is trying to fend off the sea with flood control and buildings on stilts.

President Barack Obama and Congress are talking about $1.2 billion a year from the U.S. for international climate aid, which includes adaptation. The U.N. climate chief, Yvo de Boer, said $10 billion to $12 billion a year is needed from developed countries through 2012 to "kick-start" things. Then it will get even more expensive.

The World Bank estimates adaptation costs will total $75 billion to $100 billion a year over the next 40 years. The International Institute for Environment and Development, a London think tank, says that number is too low.

It may even be $200 billion a year or $300 billion a year, said Chris Hope, a business school professor at the University of Cambridge and part of the IIED study.

Nevertheless, Hope said failing to adapt would be even more expensive — perhaps $6 trillion a year on average over the next 200 years. Adaptation could cut that by about $2 trillion a year, he said.

As much as three-quarters of the spending will be needed in the developing world, experts say.

"Those are not the countries that caused the problem," Hope said. "There's a pretty strong moral case for us giving them assistance for the impacts that we've largely caused."

Sending money from rich countries to poor ones raises questions of who will control the spending and whether it will be wasted or stolen.

As for helping plants and animals, British climate scientist Martin Parry said the world will have to create a triage system to figure out which living things can be saved, which can't and are effectively goners, and which don't need immediate help.

"It's a brutal way to go about things," Parry said.

And what about people?

Some islands, such as the Maldives, and some coastal cities will not be able to survive rising seas no matter what protections are put in place, said Saleemel Huq, a senior fellow at IIED who runs an adaptation center in Bangladesh. In those cases, he said, the world will need "planned relocation" of people and cities.

Parmesan said people are going to have to realize that "some areas are not going to be good enough to live in in the next 100 years."

___

Associated Press writers Michael Casey in Bangkok, Alex Kennedy in Singapore, and Minh Tran in Hanoi, Vietnam, contributed to this report.

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On the Net

International Institute for Environment and Development report on costs of adaptation: http://tinyurl.com/iiedadapt

United Nations climate change convention adaptation site: http://unfccc.int/adaptation/items/4159.php

U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration adaptation site: http://tinyurl.com/noaadapt

California adaptation strategy: http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation/

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China should adapt to climate change: meteorologist

Yahoo News 3 Dec 09;

BEIJING (AFP) – China's top meteorologist has warned climate change could cause "incalculable" damage to the country and that efforts should focus on adapting to global warming rather than slowing it.

The comments by the head of the China Meteorological Administration appeared to mark a departure from the government stance that has so far stressed both as equally important.

"Global warming is a fact. For a huge developing country like China it's more practical and urgent to adapt to climate change than to seek to slow down the process," said Zheng Guoguang.

Zheng was writing in the latest edition of Seeking Truth, a Communist Party magazine, released this week just days before a global conference on climate change in Copenhagen where China is expected to play a crucial role.

China has made both slowing the pace of climate change and adapting to the new environmental challenges official priorities.

Yang Ailun, Greenpeace China's climate and energy campaigner, criticised Zheng's comments as "not a very responsible signal" to be sending the world ahead of next week's summit.

"It is crucial for China to adapt (to climate change) because China will be badly affected. However China is the biggest carbon dioxide emitter and has an increasingly important role in tackling emissions," Yang said.

Yang added that Zheng's comments were "not in line with the government's position" and may merely reflect a personal view.

It is rare for officials to express views at variance with China's official line.

China faces potentially disastrous consequences from climate change, wrote Zheng, who is also a member of a group tasked with developing China's climate change policies.

He estimated grain production could slump 37 percent in the second half of this century without "adequate adaptive measures", threatening the country's food security.

"If extreme climatic disasters occur twice or more within five years, for example, a major drought over two or three years, then the impact on our country's economic and social development would be incalculable," Zheng said. Zheng said annual grain output could fluctuate by 30 to 50 percent from long-term averages as climate change leads to more severe drought and floods.

Extreme weather conditions currently cause production to fluctuate by between 10 and 20 percent, he said.

China should prioritise "reducing the impact of global warming on the country's food security and strengthening the capacity of agriculture to withstand climatic risks," Zheng said.

Zheng urged Beijing to increase the nation's grain reserves, boost productivity and better protect arable land and water supplies.

His comments came after China last week unveiled a plan to slow growth in its world-leading carbon emissions.

Despite saying it is a major victim of climate change, China is resisting calls by rich nations such as the United States to agree to emissions cuts.

Beijing says the developed world is largely to blame for climate change and should bear the burden of reducing emissions.

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Forest-CO2 Scheme Needs Cash To Save Species: Study

David Fogarty, PlanetArk 4 Dec 09;

SINGAPORE - A U.N. carbon-payment scheme aimed at saving forests in poorer nations could push some species to extinction unless it is designed to spread investment across many countries, a study released on Friday shows.

The United Nations wants the scheme, called reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD), to be part of a broader pact to fight climate change by rewarding poorer nations for preserving forests through carbon offset revenue.

Deforestation is a major source of mankind's greenhouse gas emissions.

The United Nations hopes REDD will slow the destruction of forests, particularly tropical forests that act like lungs by soaking up and locking away planet-warming carbon dioxide.

But Oscar Venter, of the University of Queensland in Australia, and his colleagues says the risk is that investors will focus more on saving forests that are most cost-effective for reducing carbon emissions, such as Brazil's Amazon basin.

That would leave species-rich "hotspots" in Madagascar, Indonesia and the Philippines at risk of destruction.

"The study reveals if carbon payments focus narrowly on carbon and ignore threatened biodiversity, carbon-trading alone won't be enough to stave off large-scale extinctions of tropical species," said co-author Kerrie Wilson.

The study, published on Friday in the journal Science, says relatively small amounts of cash could help save species in less financially attractive areas.

Venter told Reuters any final design on REDD, which negotiators will be discussing at U.N. climate talks in Copenhagen from Monday, must enshrine protection of biodiversity, a scientific term that has critical meaning to our well-being.

"We get tonnes of services from nature -- water filtration, sediment retention, fire abatement, clean air. These are things that we get for free.

"It you start eroding the biodiversity providing those services, all those things, the stability of your fields for growing crops, the cleanliness of your rivers, will all start disappearing."

CARBON RISK-REWARD

Venter and his colleagues used complex modeling looking at business-as-usual deforestation rates in 68 developing countries from 2006 to 2015. They found if deforestation could be cut by 20 percent, funding for a cost-effective REDD scheme would be spent in eight countries.

The bulk of the investment would go to South America, particularly Brazil. None would go to Asia because major investments in palm oil and other crops meant the costs of displacing these activities makes REDD expensive.

Funding to cut deforestation by 40 percent would see investments in 20 countries, again mostly in South America.

The study says that through careful targeting of REDD funds, the biodiversity benefits could be doubled while incurring a 4-8 percent reduction in the amount of averted carbon emissions.

Venter said one solution was for big conservation groups such as WWF and The Nature Conservancy to spend more of their sizeable annual budgets on developing REDD schemes with a major biodiversity component.

He also felt that some companies would be willing to pay a slightly higher price for carbon offsets from projects that helped saved areas rich in endangered animal and plant species.

(Editing by Nick Macfie)

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Global emissions only 'few billion tonnes' short of targets, says Stern

Leading economist says world leaders are more than halfway towards pledges needed for effective deal at Copenhagen
Press Association, guardian.co.uk 3 Dec 09;

Offers on the table ahead of the Copenhagen climate change talks are only "a few billion tonnes" short of the scale of annual CO2 emission cuts required to meet 2020 environment targets, Lord Stern said today.

He acknowledged there was a "significant way to go" but insisted: "It is possible to get there."

The economist and global warming expert was speaking in Brussels after breakfast talks with European commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and Dr Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Yesterday in London he said world leaders were more than halfway towards the kind of promises needed to save the planet at Copenhagen.

His latest report says global emissions are currently 47bn tonnes of greenhouses gases a year, and could rise to 58bn tonnes in 2020.

To keep global warming to no more than a 2C, says his report, emissions should be held at about 44bn tonnes in 2020.

Today, stopping off in Brussels on the way to Copenhagen, he praised the "vital lead" taken by the EU, and went on: "If you look at the kind of offers that are now on the table we are just a few billion tonnes short per annum of the kind of emission cuts we need to get on target for 2020.

"That means there is a significant way to go but it is possible to get there."

Lord Stern said a "strong, outline, political agreement" at Copenhagen could lead to a dynamic industrial revolution. He said the "extra bit" that needed to be done would require increased commitments from some countries which had already made emissions-cutting offers, as well as a bigger fight against deforestation. "Both those things could take us there and I trust they are both possible."

Dr Pachauri said: "If we are serious about taking action then 2020 is clearly the date by which we must commit ourselves to reduce emissions substantially."

President Barroso repeated the EU's pledge to increase to 30% its current commitment to cut CO2 emissions by 20% by 2020 - but only when there are significant equivalent commitments from the rest of the developed world and "adequate" responses from poorer countries."We have set a unilateral, unconditional target of 20%: we cannot commit to more if others do not do so as well," he said.

In the last fortnight, India revealed a carbon intensity cut of 24% by 2020, China pledged an intensity reduction of 40-45% by 2020 and the US offered to cut total greenhouse emissions 17% by 2020. Carbon intensity is the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per unit of economic growth.

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Small countries, big environmental goals

Straits Times 4 Dec 09;

In view of the forthcoming United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Copenhagen, the foreign ministers of Cape Verde, Costa Rica, Iceland, Singapore, Slovenia and the United Arab Emirates have agreed to strengthen their commitments and call for renewed global action to address climate change.

By Jose Brito, Bruno Stagno Ugarte, Ossur Skarphedinsson, George Yeo, Samuel Zbogar & Sheikh Abdallah Zayid Al Nahyan

ONLY days before the United Nations' Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, humankind is confronted with the consequences of its past actions. Scientific evidence clearly shows that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions contribute significantly to global warming.

The prospects are grim: Rising temperatures will cause major crop declines in entire regions and significant changes in the availability of water resources. At the same time, as some areas experience major water shortages, rising sea levels will threaten some of the world's largest cities and may even cause loss of territory and give rise to border disputes.

Entire ecosystems, from glaciers to rainforests, could collapse, and many species could face extinction. Storms, droughts, forest fires and floods will cause irreversible environmental degradation and desertification, affecting the food security of millions and causing massive migration flows.

Climate change will have the most severe impact on countries with scarce natural resources and a limited ability to adapt to these challenges. Small developing island states, in particular, are among the most vulnerable and face an existential threat from the rising sea level. As preventive adaptation measures are costly, not all developing island states are able to implement such measures on their own. In this regard, financial and technology support must be provided.

Furthermore, climate change may also exacerbate political instability in some of the most volatile regions in the world, creating new geopolitical rivalries over scarce resources. The potential risks of unmitigated climate change are enormous.

Therefore, a successful agreement in Copenhagen, with deep cuts in global emissions that limit global warming to 2 deg C, and taking into account the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, respective resources and national circumstances, is of paramount importance.

We should also look beyond Copenhagen. Addressing climate change presents a challenge to global governance. The existing network of international organisations is already under stress, due to the complexity of this issue and its repercussions on political and social stability, economic growth and development, as well as on environmental sustainability.

Climate change has the potential to exacerbate conflict, but at the same time, it could also foster cooperation by underlining growing global interdependence in dealing with the changing environment and related security threats. Coping with climate change could be one of the bases for creating a more cooperative world. In this regard, the active participation of all relevant stakeholders, especially women, is essential.

Apart from growing interdependence, climate change also blurs the distinction between foreign and domestic policy. Six foreign ministers from small countries representing different regions have decided to act collectively, committed to acting in favour of the environment and sustainable development.

Our national policies include measures that address climate change and reflect the need for a concerted international effort in this endeavour. Each state acts as a small point of green reference within its own region, and all points are interconnected to establish an efficient global network. We are striving for political balance, particularly regarding energy and water.

Our countries are promoting clean energy approaches, renewable energy and energy efficiency:

# Cape Verde is committed to weather-dependent wind power and solar energy.

# Costa Rica's 'Peace with Nature' initiative strives for carbon neutrality through the sustainable use of all natural resources.

# Iceland has achieved an energy transformation with the successful use of renewables.

# Despite its constraints in using alternative energy sources, Singapore has taken various measures such as energy efficiency improvement and other policy measures to reduce its emissions.

# Slovenia will further develop its sustainable forest management and the qualitative use of biomass.

# Through the multifaceted approach of the Masdar Initiative, the United Arab Emirates is committed to clean energy solutions, energy efficiency, carbon emissions reduction and human capacity building in the field of renewable energy and clean technologies.

The synergetic effect of so many different approaches and visions will be enormous.

Climate change will seriously affect existing water resources, making water a strategic asset of the future. Water is essential for satisfying basic human needs, ensuring social and economic development and preserving ecosystems. Today, the lack of water to meet daily needs is a reality for one in three people around the world.

The efficiency of water usage can be increased through technological improvements, changes in human behaviour and better water management. We cannot afford to continue as we have done in the past.

Our countries face different challenges in providing water security:

# Cape Verde is entirely dependent on rainfall and desalination.

# Costa Rica has abundant water resources and uses hydroelectric power for over 70 per cent of its electricity production.

# Iceland meets 80 per cent of its energy needs, generating almost 100 per cent of its electricity with clean energy, and is among world leaders in harnessing geothermal resources for thermal and electricity production.

# Singapore has leveraged on membrane technology to add high-grade reclaimed water and desalinated water to its inventory of water supply.

# The United Arab Emirates focuses its efforts on reducing water consumption and improving the efficiency of water supply.

# With its diverse water resources, Slovenia has developed an efficient water management system.

Again, our countries will make an effort to transfer knowledge, expertise and best practices to address the issue of water as one of the main global challenges.

Our planet is a living being with great resilience and will undoubtedly survive without us. Yet our environment demands that we rethink and reinvent ourselves in order to channel imagination, creativity, ingenuity and entrepreneurship into creating a sustainable world. Awareness of the scope of these environmental challenges is of vital importance in searching for sustainable responses.

Climate change is changing our world in more ways than one. Decisions taken by individuals and groups at the local and global level should fully take into account scientific findings, be ambitious and based on the principles of interconnectivity and synergy.

Strong commitment at governmental level is also required. For any responsible policymaker, the challenges posed by climate change and the high risks involved if the issue is not dealt with leave us with no other option but to act together, in the most efficient and synergised way.

Jose Brito is Cape Verde's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Cooperation and Communities; Bruno Stagno Ugarte is Costa Rica's Minister of Foreign Affairs and Religion; Ossur Skarphedinsson is Iceland's Minister for Foreign Affairs and External Trade; George Yeo is Singapore's Minister for Foreign Affairs; Samuel Zbogar is Slovenia's Minister of Foreign Affairs; and Sheikh Abdallah Zayid Al Nahyan is the United Arab Emirates' Minister of Foreign Affairs.

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Carbon Pledges, Schemes Pile Up Ahead Of Copenhagen

Gillian Murdoch, PlanetArk 4 Dec 09;

Singapore, a Southeast Asian city-state with high per-capita emissions, will head to global climate talks next week with a pledge to cut carbon pollution by 16 percent versus projected business-as-usual levels by 2020.

The announcement is the latest in a series of pledges to lower carbon emissions made in the run-up to the United Nations Dec 7-18 Copenhagen talks on a broader global climate deal.

Top emitters China, the United States and India have all announced preliminary reduction targets in recent weeks, while New Zealand has passed the world's second formal emissions trading scheme and politicians in Australia have become embroiled in a struggle over a similar scheme.

Here is a timeline showing how countries' pledges and carbon reduction schemes stand ahead of the Copenhagen conference.

* Jan 2005 - The European Union begins what is still the world's largest multi-country, multi-sector greenhouse gas emission trading system (EU ETS).

The scheme fails to have much impact on emissions in its first trading phase from 2005-07 after the EU hands out too many emissions permits, causing a carbon price crash.

* Feb 16, 2005 - Kyoto Protocol comes into force, introducing mandatory targets for 37 developed nations, excluding the United States. The present round of Kyoto expires in 2012 and the world has committed to sign a new pact in Copenhagen in December.

* Dec 2005 - Seven U.S. states agree to implement the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), the first mandatory, market-based CO2 emissions reduction program in the United States. In 2007, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Maryland join Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont, taking the total to 10 states in the eastern United States. * Jan-Feb 2007 - California legislature passes California Global Warming Solutions Act. The governors of Arizona, California, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington agree to develop a regional target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

-- The scheme, the Western Climate Initiative (WCI), expands to include other U.S. states and later Canadian provinces in a regional greenhouse gas emissions trading system.

* Jan 23, 2008 - The EU commits to reducing its overall emissions to at least 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020.

* Oct 2008 - Japan launches a voluntary carbon market, which allows companies exceeding voluntary targets to buy carbon allowances. It approves its first domestic carbon credits in June 2009.

* March 16, 2009 - The Maldives says it will shift entirely to renewable energy and become the first carbon-neutral country, to fight the climate change that threatens the low-lying archipelago's existence.

* Nov 11 - A group of developing countries pledge to green their economies, but stop short of committing to "carbon neutrality" at a summit hosted by the Maldives.

* Nov 25 - New Zealand passes a revised emissions trading plan, the second to pass into law after Europe's began in 2005.

On the same day, the White House says the United States will pledge in Copenhagen to cut greenhouse gas emissions roughly by 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020, a drop of about 3 percent below the 1990 benchmark year used in U.N. treaties.

* Nov 26 - China pledges to reduce its carbon intensity -- the amount of carbon dioxide emitted for each unit of GDP -- by 40 to 45 percent by 2020, compared with 2005 levels. It says the target is voluntary and domestic, rather than an international commitment.

* Nov 30 - A draft text written by Copenhagen host Denmark says the world should agree to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 from 1990 levels as part of a U.N. climate pact.

The text, which Denmark says is not a formal proposal, says rich countries should account for 80 percent of global emission cuts by 2050.

* Dec 2 - Australia's parliament rejects laws to set up a sweeping carbon emissions trade scheme.

On the same day India reveals a target to cut its carbon intensity by 24 percent by 2020 compared with 2005 levels. [ID:nSP402484] * Dec 3 - Singapore says it will head to Copenhagen with a pledge to cut carbon pollution by 16 percent versus projected business-as-usual levels by 2020.

(Editing by Sugita Katyal)

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India pledges to cut carbon intensity ahead of Copenhagen

Yasmeen Mohiuddin Yahoo News 3 Dec 09;

NEW DELHI (AFP) – India pledged on Thursday to cut its carbon footprint in the next decade by reducing the intensity of its emissions, in a long-awaited move ahead of the Copenhagen climate talks.

Addressing parliament, Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh said India needed to show leadership to its people and the world and even invoked the country's environment-minded independence leader Mahatma Gandhi to bolster his arguments.

Reiterating the country's rejection of binding emissions targets or a peak year by which its emissions would have to fall, he committed instead to reducing the carbon intensity of the national economy.

"We will on our own cut emissions intensity by 20 to 25 percent if we get support from the international community," the minister told lawmakers.

Ramesh will head to Copenhagen next week and stay for the bulk of negotiations, his office said.

He explained that the cut in carbon intensity meant the creation of each unit of gross domestic product would produce 20-25 percent less greenhouse gas emissions compared to a 2005 baseline.

The target will be voluntary and non-binding, but the statement marks a major shift for India, which had refused to quantify its commitment to cutting carbon dioxide emissions.

"At Copenhagen, if we have a successful agreement, if we have an equitable agreement, if we are satisfied with this agreement, we are prepared to do even more," he told lawmakers.

Saleemul Huq, senior fellow at the London-based International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), called the announcement a "welcome sign that the Indians are prepared to take action".

"Larger developing countries are now coming forward with domestic actions but they should also be prepared to take further actions and those costs need to be reimbursed," Huq told AFP from London.

India was seen as under pressure to make a gesture after the world's top two polluters, China and the United States, put numbers on the table last month.

India's carbon intensity is lower than China's, the biggest emitter, which last month declared it would cut the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP in 2020 by 40 to 45 percent from 2005 levels.

A reduction in carbon intensity means India's and China's carbon emissions would continue to rise in the long term but at a slower pace, leading critics to label such plans "smokescreens".

Huq disagreed, saying: "Cutting carbon intensity is a good first step. Ultimately what matters is total emissions and all countries have to plan for a post fossil-fuel economy."

The United States, the world's second biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, will also head to Copenhagen with an offer to cut US emissions by 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020 and larger amounts in the future.

The December 7-18 talks in the Danish capital are aimed at forging a new pact to tackle greenhouse gas emissions and their impact after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.

Ramesh said India's carbon intensity had declined by 17.6 percent between 1990 and 2005, and further cuts could be achieved through a host of measures, including stricter vehicle emissions targets, improved building standards and "clean coal" technology in power stations.

Coal is the source for a majority of India's electricity generation.

"India... owes a responsability not to the world, but to itself to take climate change seriously," Ramesh said, adding that the country had particular reason to be worried about global warming.

"Climate change is of great significance to our country and ever since I became minister on May 29 I have been trying to spread this single message that the most vulnerable country in the world to climate change is India," he said.

One of the reasons, he explained, is India's reliance on an annual monsoon for water, which was the weakest in nearly four decades this year.

India to slow greenhouse growth in step to U.N. deal
Krittivas Mukherjee, Reuters 3 Dec 09;

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India set a goal on Thursday for slowing the growth of its greenhouse gas emissions, the last major economy to offer a climate target four days before the start of U.N. talks on combating global warming.

The government said it was willing to rein in its "carbon intensity" -- the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted per unit of economic output -- by between 20 and 25 percent by 2020, from 2005 levels.

"India can't be like a frog in the well, India has to show leadership to its own people -- we need to show action," Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh told parliament, laying out India's position ahead of the December 7-18 summit in Denmark.

Such a goal will let India's emissions keep rising. Ramesh said India, the fourth biggest greenhouse gas emitter, would not set a peak year for its emissions, or accept absolute cuts.

The unilateral announcement contrasted with a harder line on Wednesday when diplomats said India, China, Brazil and South Africa opposed the setting of goals advocated by the Danish hosts, including a halving of world emissions by 2050.

The big emerging economies have often insisted that rich nations have caused global warming by spewing out greenhouse gases since the Industrial Revolution, and want to see deep cuts by these rich nations before joining the effort.

"This means that all of the world's biggest emitters have reacted to the deadline in Copenhagen. It is very good news that India has brought numbers to the table," said Connie Hedegaard, Denmark's Environment Minister who will preside at the talks.

India's goal will let emissions rise, albeit at a slower rate than gross domestic product growth (GDP).

"Under this intensity target...the absolute level of Indian carbon emissions might still rise by around 90-95 percent between 2005 and 2020, according to our GDP growth model estimates," PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP said in a statement.

Still, it called the target "very encouraging."

RICH-POOR DIVIDE

Fault lines between rich and poor about sharing out the burden of combating global warming -- projected to bring more floods, droughts, wildfires and heatwaves -- are likely to dominate Copenhagen, where about 100 world leaders will gather on the final two days.

In London, the climate consultancy Ecofys said global greenhouse gas emissions would almost double from 1990 levels by 2040 with current emissions promises.

And rich nations are far from united in their approach.

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said on Thursday he would not rule out calling an early election to end a political deadlock over climate change policy, after parliament rejected for a second time his policy on cutting carbon emissions.

In Brussels, a European Commission official said the European Union wanted more from China.

China last week said it would aim to cut its carbon intensity goal by 40-45 percent by 2020, from 2005 levels. Some analysts say that could still mean a doubling of emissions.

"There's an expectation they could go further," the EU official said.

Summit hosts Denmark reiterated that it was now too late to agree a full, legally binding treaty in Copenhagen. Hedegaard said nations would have to set a deadline for completing work "as soon as possible in 2010."

"I think that right now the biggest obstacle for Copenhagen will be finance," she told Reuters. Developed nations have yet to put cash on the table to help fund a deal.

In Italy, environmentalists accused Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi of doing too little to avert climate change, and put up an ice statue of him in the ancient Roman Forum. It is timed to melt away on the day the conference opens.

(Additional reporting by Reuters bureaux around the world; writing by Alister Doyle, Editing by Elizabeth Fullerton)

India to rein in emissions, but at minimal cost: analysts
Yasmeen Mohiuddin Yahoo News 4 Dec 09;

NEW DELHI (AFP) – India, like China, has committed to reducing the carbon intensity of its economy which will allow its emissions to grow in the long-run and avoid huge costs for its industry or consumers, analysts say.

The country had been under pressure to make a gesture before climate talks in Copenhagen, which start next week, and it has promised to slow the growth of its emissions in the future but under no circumstances reduce them.

It's a "welcome sign that the Indians are prepared to take action," said Saleemul Huq, senior fellow at the London-based International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).

"Larger developing countries are now coming forward with domestic actions but they should also be prepared to take further actions and those costs need to be reimbursed," Huq told AFP from London.

Indian Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh announced Thursday a voluntary and non-binding commitment to reduce India's carbon intensity by 20 to 25 percent by 2020, compared to 2005 levels.

This means that generating a dollar of gross domestic product (GDP) will result in 20-25 less carbon emissions by 2020, but in return India expects financial compensation from rich countries to help with the cost.

India's economy is already on the path of greater carbon efficiency, having achieved a 17.6 percent decline in carbon intensity between 1990 and 2005.

Ramesh stressed repeatedly that there was no question of India adopting an overall emissions target, or accepting a peak year by which time its emissions would have to fall.

This would impose far greater costs on the national economy and would dampen the expansion the government says it needs to drag millions out of poverty in the vast and chaotic country.

"India can do more, but it will cost more. That should be financed by the international community," said Girish Sant from the non-government research body Prayas Energy Group.

The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) hailed the plan, calling it "completely doable" and noting "there will be more output with each unit of emission thereby benefiting the economy a great deal."

"Indian industry is well-positioned to turn the challenge into an opportunity," CII director general Chandrajit Banerjee said in a statement.

Ramesh explained that the reductions in carbon intensity would be achieved through new legislation imposing stricter emissions standards for vehicles and improved energy efficiency for buildings.

The country's stretched and mostly coal-fired power generation network would make greater use of "clean" technologies, he said.

Ankur Ganguly of Greenpeace India called India's reduction plan "conservative," but noted that most countries had gone with similarly "easy" figures to play it safe at Copenhagen.

India is "playing it safe but who isn't?" he said. "The US has been ultraconservative."

Negotiations for a new global climate treaty in Copenhagen to replace or extend the 1997 Kyoto Protocol beyond 2012 are deadlocked with rich and poor nations at loggerheads.

Developing countries are refusing emissions targets and are demanding financial aid from their rich counterparts to help them cope with the effects of climate change.

India's per capita greenhouse gas emissions are expected to nearly triple in the next two decades from about 1.2 tonnes per person per year to 2.1 tonnes in 2020 and 3.5 tonnes in 2030, according to a recent government-backed report.

That is still below the global average of 4.2 tonnes per person.

But India's massive 1.1-billion population puts the country among the world's leading greenhouse gas emitters.

India's carbon intensity is lower than China's, the biggest emitter, which last month declared it would cut the rate of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP in 2020 by 40 to 45 percent from 2005 levels.

The Indian Express newspaper said India's negotiating hand would be strengthened by the numbers, but criticised the amount of time it took to make an announcement.

"It allowed others to seize the initiative and to let the focus for some considerable time be on how India was the sole major participant who was unwilling to quantify," the paper said.

But India still had enough "wiggle room" and Thursday's announcement should be seen as an "attempt to ensure that Copenhagen starts without any finger pointing."

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