Kenya strongly opposes resumption of ivory trade

Reuters 12 Mar 10;

NAIROBI, March 12 (Reuters ) - Kenya Friday underlined its strong opposition to any move to lift a ban on trading ivory ahead of a meeting on endangered species.

The Convention of International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) is due to meet on March 13 in Qatar.

A nine-year ban on ivory sales was agreed in 2007 under the Convention of International Trade in Endangered Species.

Kenya relies heavily on tourism to earn foreign exchange and many visitors come to the country to visit its numerous game parks, and see its animals, among them a 35,000-strong heavily protected elephant population.

"Tourism accounts for 21 percent of the total foreign exchange earnings and 12 percent of GDP. Tourism resources must, therefore, be guarded fiercely, hence Kenya's relentless conservation efforts," President Mwai Kibaki said.

"I appeal to all friends of Kenya to support this call to save the African elephant and rhino from extinction," he added in a speech while commissioning an electric fence protecting Aberdare National Park in central Kenya.

Tanzania and Zambia, both with growing elephant populations, want to reclassify their populations, as a first step to resuming the trade.

Kenya is opposed to the ivory trade after losing a large number of its elephants to poaching in the 1980s.

Forestry Minister Noah Wekesa said 23 other countries supported Kenya's stand on the ban on ivory trade.

(Reporting by George Obulutsa; Editing by Jon Hemming)

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Pollution fears stop Thailand's industrial heart

Claire Truscott Yahoo News 12 Mar 10;

MAP TA PHUT, Thailand (AFP) – In Thailand's industrial heartland, the workmen who should be constructing dozens of metal and petrochemical products are nowhere to be seen, their tools lying unused.

Legal action brought by environmental activists has brought dozens of projects to a halt until pollution fears have been addressed, seizing up nine billion dollars of investment and damaging the country's image.

The suspended projects at Map Ta Phut are part of a huge industrial estate on Thailand's eastern seaboard, a vast web of petrochemical, metal and energy plants the size of a city that dwarfs the rural villages surrounding it.

In those villages, the allegations against the plants are grave -- record cancer rates and respiratory disease in the area are blamed on the toxic fumes pumped out from the estate.

"We are not telling the factories to go away but we want them to control the fumes," says fruit farmer Noi Jaitang, 71, who suffers from breathing problems that he blames on fumes wafting across the fields to his house.

He says his wife has had cancer of the face twice and that his children are sick from acid rain in the area.

"When I sleep the fumes go in my eyes, and sometimes I have to stand and stretch just to breathe," he said.

But Noi says many others with similar problems are too frightened to complain, because unlike him they are employed by the factories.

A Thai court in September halted work at 76 projects in Map Ta Phut. Courts have subsequently allowed 20 of them to finish construction.

But the delays are causing anxiety among investors, already rattled by years of political unrest including a coup, the brief closure of Bangkok's airports by protesters in 2008 and fresh rallies set for this weekend.

The president of Japan's External Trade Organization for South and Southeast Asia has said the project suspensions are a bigger turn off than the protests, while Thailand's finance minister is currently in Tokyo to reassure investors.

Separately the Bank of Thailand has warned the row could cut the country's economic growth by 0.5 percentage points this year and that it presents "major risk factors to the stability of the corporate sector".

"Investors are concerned, we are all concerned. This is the problem of complying with the new rules," said Chainoi Puankosoom, president and chief executive of PTTAR, part of the Thai industrial conglomerate PTT Plc.

PTT accounts for nearly a third of the projects on hold in Map Ta Phut and has warned its net profit could fall five percent this year and more in 2011 if it cannot resume work.

"When the projects are delayed we have to renegotiate with our construction workers, renegotiate with our lenders, which all costs us money and delays our operations," Chainoi said.

The court that initially halted the projects based its decision on tougher rules brought in under a 2007 military-backed constitution, following the coup that toppled Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

The rules force all firms in Thailand to carry out health assessments and hold public consultations before beginning new works to prove they will cause no environmental damage.

But the companies complain the new regulations are unclear and costly.

This angers lawyer Srisuwan Janya, a former student activist and campaigner for better pollution controls who helped win the initial injunction that stopped work at Map Ta Phut.

"The government is not sincere in following the constitution," said Srisuwan. "I'm not denying development but development should be based on standards not just 'come and take'."

Heavy pollution from the estate was first noticed in the 1980s, but it wasn't until 1997 that villagers began to form a green movement after children attending a neighbouring school were taken ill.

The school was moved out of the area and further scientific research was carried out. The National Cancer Institute in 2003 found that the highest rates of cancer in Thailand were in Rayong province, where Map Ta Phut is located.

Lawyer Srisuwan insists he will back the villagers all the way, whatever the economic consequences may be.

He says he has retaliated for the government's successful appeals against some of the suspensions by lodging a further nine complaints with Thailand's administrative court, and says he is working on more than 170 other new cases.

"Don't talk with me about the economy. I'm ready to fight every organisation so that these people can receive justice," he said.

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Ocean pollution contaminating China shellfish: report

Yahoo News 12 Mar 10;

BEIJING (AFP) – China's coastal waters are increasingly polluted by everything from oil to pesticides, contaminating the nation's marine life including the shellfish supply, state press reported Friday.

Most shellfish in offshore areas contained "excessive harmful chemicals" such as lead, cadmium and the insecticide DDT, the China Daily said, citing a new report released by the State Oceanic Administration.

Levels of lead detected in shellfish were 50 percent higher than normal, while cadmium and DDT levels were about 40 percent higher, the report said.

Lead can damage the human nervous system and cause blood and brain disorders if consumed in unsafe amounts, while DDT is listed as a "moderately hazardous" pesticide by the World Health Organization.

The administration's report said that about 147,000 square kilometres (59,000 square miles) of China's coastal waters failed to meet standards for "clear water" last year, an increase of 7.3 percent over 2008.

China's coastal waters last year suffered 68 red tides, or algae blooms, caused by excessive sewage in the water that affected 14,100 square kilometres, 3.4 times the area affected by such blooms in the 1990s, the report said.

China's fast-paced economic growth was resulting in more industrial and domestic garbage being dumped into the sea, it added.

Following 30 years of explosive growth, China's is on track to overtake Japan as the world's second-largest economy, but that success has made it one of the most polluted nations in the world.

"Our environmental quality is only improving in certain areas, but overall the environment is still deteriorating," Vice Minister of Environmental Protection Zhang Lijun told journalists this week.

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Central American shrimp, lobster fast disappearing

Yahoo News 11 Mar 10;

PANAMA CITY (AFP) – Illegal fishing and climate change are decimating shrimp and lobster populations in Central America, threatening a two-billion-dollar industry and 136,000 jobs, regional experts said Thursday.

"Pollution and warmer waters are impacting our species," especially shrimp and lobster, said Central American Organization of the Fisheries and Aquaculture Sectors (OSPESCA) regional director Mario Gonzalez.

"The Pacific shrimp population, Panama excluded, has fallen dramatically" because of overexploitation and decreasing rainfall in Central America over the past decade, "which depletes the nutrients they feed on," the expert said.

The lobster population is also in jeopardy of disappearing altogether, he added.

Illegal fishing is also taking its toll, Gonzalez said.

"Of the total amount delivered to fish processing plants, approximately 20 to 30 percent is illegal or undersized," said the OSPESCA official.

Underreported catches compound the problem, Gonzalez said.

"You can say that in Central America 50 percent of our (fishing) production goes undeclared or not reported, not only by private fishermen but also by large fisheries," the expert said.

The dire situation has been brought to the attention of regional governments.

"There's a regional policy (on fishing), but it's just included in documents which have to be turned into action in order to better manage our fish stocks," OSPESCA interim president Diana Arauz told AFP.

As a first step, officials said, Central American Integration System members -- El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Costa Rica and Panama -- have recently banned lobster fishing from March 1 to June 30 in hopes the species can make a comeback.

Lobster and shrimp fishing in Central America employs some 136,000 people and brings in 1.985 billion dollars a year -- 4.1 percent of the regional gross domestic product, OSPESCA and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization said in a report.

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Climate change pushing bird species 'towards extinction:' US

Yahoo News 11 Mar 10;

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Climate change is pushing some bird species "towards extinction," US Interior Secretary Ken Salazar warned Thursday as a new report on the threats facing North American birds was released.

"For well over a century, migratory birds have faced stresses," Salazar said. "Now they are facing a new threat -- climate change -- that could dramatically alter their habitat and food supply and push many species towards extinction."

Birds that depend upon the ocean for survival "are among the most vulnerable birds on Earth to climate change," warned the report put together by the US Fish and Wildlife Service in coordination with several environmental groups.

All 67 oceanic bird species, including albatrosses, petrels and puffins, are at particular risk because they produce few offspring each year and their habitats are most susceptible to climate change phenomena.

Species including the Laysan Albatross and the Bonin Petrel typically nest on very low-lying islands, which could disappear as sea levels rise.

Many Hawaiian birds, including the endangered Puaiohi and Akiapolaau, face multiple threats, including from mosquito-borne diseases and invasive species, as well as loss of habitat, the report warned.

But even less-threatened species, like the American oystercatcher -- a black and white bird with a long red bill -- the common nighthawk, and the northern pintail -- an ubiquitous type of duck, are likely to become "of conservation concern" because of climate change.

In mountainous and Arctic regions "increased temperatures will drastically alter surface water and vegetation," meaning species like the White-tailed Ptarmigan and rosy-finches "may disappear... as alpine tundra diminishes."

"Birds are excellent indicators of the health of our environment, and right now they are telling us an important story about climate change," said Kenneth Rosenberg, director of conservation science at Cornell University's Lab of Ornithology, a contributor to the report.

"Many species of conservation concern will face heightened threats, giving us an increased sense of urgency to protect and conserve vital bird habitat," he added.

Salazar said the Department of the Interior was working to develop practical strategies to manage the effects of climate change in eight regions and has set up Climate Science Centers in each region to coordinate and lead those efforts.

Climate Change Harming Hundreds of Migratory Bird Species
Environment News Service 17 Mar 10;

WASHINGTON, DC, March 17, 2010 (ENS) - Climate change is putting pressure on hundreds of species of migratory birds, already stressed by habitat loss, invasive species and exposure to toxic chemicals, a new U.S. government report concludes. In part to meet their needs for protection, the Department of the Interior is laying the groundwork for a network of science-based landscape conservation cooperatives.

"The State of the Birds: 2010 Report on Climate Change" indicates that the warming climate will have an increasingly disruptive effect on bird species in all habitats, with oceanic and Hawaiian birds in greatest danger.

"Just as they did in 1962 when Rachel Carson published "Silent Spring," our migratory birds are sending us a message about the health of our planet," said Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, releasing the report on Thursday.

"That is why - for the first time ever - the Department of the Interior has deployed a coordinated strategy to plan for and respond to the impacts of climate change on the resources we manage," he said.

On March 4, Secretary Salazar announced that the first of eight new regional climate science centers planned by Interior Department would be based at the University of Alaska. The centers are expected to develop practical, landscape-level strategies for managing climate change impacts on birds and on land, natural, and cultural resources within the eight regions.

The centers will provide scientific and technical expertise to help support a new federal government network of landscape conservation cooperatives.

With an initial federal investment of $25 million in FY2010, the landscape conservation cooperatives are intended to become applied conservation science partnerships between the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and other federal agencies, states, tribes, nongovernmental organizations, universities and the public within each of the eight regions.

Rather than create a new conservation infrastructure from the ground up, said Salazar, the landscape conservation cooperatives are expected to build upon explicit biological management priorities and objectives. They will incorporate the science available from existing fish habitat partnerships, migratory bird joint ventures and flyway councils, as well as species-based and geographic-based partnerships.

The landscape conservation cooperatives will address landscape-scale stressors, such as habitat fragmentation, genetic isolation, invasive species, and water scarcity, all of which are accelerated by climate change.

The new State of the Birds report, a collaboration among experts from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and conservation organizations, identified common bird species that are likely to become species of conservation concern as a result of climate change, such as the American oystercatcher, common nighthawk, and northern pintail.

For bird species that are already of conservation concern such as the golden-cheeked warbler, whooping crane, and spectacled eider, the added vulnerability to climate change may hasten declines or prevent recovery.

"Birds are excellent indicators of the health of our environment, and right now they are telling us an important story about climate change," said Dr. Kenneth Rosenberg, director of Conservation Science at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology. "Many species of conservation concern will face heightened threats, giving us an increased sense of urgency to protect and conserve vital bird habitat."

Oceanic birds are among the most vulnerable species because they raise few young each year; they face challenges from a rapidly changing marine ecosystem; and they nest on islands that may be flooded as sea levels rise. All 67 oceanic bird species, such as petrels and albatrosses, are among the most vulnerable birds on Earth to climate change.

"All of the effective bird conservation efforts already taking place to protect rare species, conserve habitats, and remove threats need to be continued." said David Mehlman of The Nature Conservancy "Additionally, they need to be greatly expanded to meet the threat climate change poses to bird populations."

Hawaiian birds such as the endangered puaiohi and 'akiapola'au already face multiple threats and are increasingly challenged by mosquito-borne diseases and invasive species as climate change alters their native habitats.

"The State of the Birds: 2010 Report on Climate Change" follows a comprehensive report issued last year showing that that nearly a third of the nation's 800 bird species are endangered, threatened or in decline.

"While there is much to be concerned about in this report, we can reduce the impact of climate change by taking immediate action to reduce carbon emissions and find creative conservation solutions to help birds adapt to the changes that are already in process." said David Pashley, vice president American Bird Conservancy.

Birds in coastal, arctic-alpine, and grassland habitats, as well as those on Caribbean and other Pacific Islands show intermediate levels of vulnerability.

The report concludes that most birds in arid lands, wetlands, and forests show relatively low vulnerability to climate change.

"The dangers to these birds reflect risks to everything we value: our health, our finances, our quality of life and the stability of our natural world," said the National Audubon Society's Glenn Olson. "But if we can help the birds weather a changing climate, we can help ourselves."

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Climate linked to smaller birds

Matt Walker, BBC News 12 Mar 10;

Songbirds in the US are getting smaller, and climate change is suspected as the cause.

A study of almost half a million birds, belonging to over 100 species, shows that many are gradually becoming lighter and growing shorter wings.

This shrinkage has occurred within just half a century, with the birds thought to be evolving into a smaller size in response to warmer temperatures.

However, there is little evidence that the change is harmful to the birds.

Details of the discovery are published in the journal Oikos.

In biology, there is a general rule of thumb that animals tend to become smaller in warmer climates: an idea known as Bergman's Rule.

Usually this trend can be seen among animal species that live over a range of latitude or altitude, with individuals living at more northern latitudes or higher up cooler mountains being slightly larger than those below, for example.

Quite why this happens is not clear, but it prompted one group of scientists to ask the question: would animals respond in the same way to climate change?

To find out, Dr Josh Van Buskirk of the University of Zurich, Switzerland and colleagues Mr Robert Mulvihill and Mr Robert Leberman of the Carnegie Museum of Natural History in Rector, Pennsylvania, US decided to evaluate the sizes of hundreds of thousands of birds that pass through the Carnegie Museum's Powdermill ringing station, also in Pennsylvania.

They examined the records of 486,000 individual birds that had been caught and measured at the ringing station from 1961 to 2007.

These birds belonged to 102 species, arriving over different seasons. Each was weighed. It also had the length of its wings measured, recorded as wing chord length, or the distance between the bird's wrist to the tip of the longest primary feather.

Their sample included local resident bird species, overwintering species, and even long distance migrants arriving from the Neotropics.

What they found was striking.

Of 83 species caught during spring migration, 60 have become smaller over the 46 year study period, weighing less and having shorter wings.

Of the 75 species migrating in autumn, 66 have become smaller.

In summer, 51 of 65 breeding species have similarly reduced in size, as have 20 out of 26 wintering species.

The differences in size are not big.

"On average, the decline in mass of spring migrants over the 46 year study was just 1.3%," says Dr Buskirk.

"For a 10g warbler that's a loss of just 130mg."

But some species are losing more weight.

For example, the rose-breasted grosbeak has declined in mass by about 4%, while the Kentucky warbler has dropped 3.3% in weight and the scarlet tanager 2.3%.

The trend is particularly noticeable among those birds that winter in the New World tropics of the Caribbean, Central America and South America.

"The headline finding is that the body sizes of many species of North American birds, mostly songbirds, are gradually becoming smaller," says Dr Buskirk.

However, their populations are not dwindling.

"So many of these species are apparently doing just fine, but the individual birds are becoming gradually smaller nonetheless," says Dr Buskirk.

That suggests that bird species in North America are obeying Berman's rule, by evolving into a smaller size as temperatures increase.

Though this change appears quick, it has taken place over at least 20 generations of birds.

"There are plenty examples of rapid contemporary evolution over much shorter time periods," says Dr Buskirk.

Whether the trend will cause the birds any long-term consequences is unclear.

"In one obvious sense, the consequences are positive," says Dr Buskirk.

"That is, as temperatures become warmer, the optimal body size is becoming smaller."

However, even though the species appear to be adapting to the new climatic conditions, it could still be that their average "fitness" in evolutionary terms, is going down.

"Evidence from other studies is that some species will benefit and others will be harmed, and it's not always the species we like that will be harmed," says Dr Buskirk.

The jury is still out as to why any species responds to warmer temperatures by becoming smaller.

Originally, biologists proposed that having a larger body surface to volume might help in warmer climates.

But more recent ideas suggest that animals might actually be responding instead to something else that correlates with temperature, such as the availability of food, or metabolic rate.

"It looks like it might take a while before we know," says Dr Buskirk.

His team says much more data is now needed to confirm this trend and to see if it is happening in animals other than birds.

For example, it took an avalanche of data before people became convinced that climate change is already altering when birds start migrating.

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Desperate Efforts to Save Endangered Bats May Fail

Brandon Keim, Wired Science 12 Mar 10;

A desperate attempt to keep endangered Virginia big-eared bats alive in captivity has shown just how difficult that noble task may be.

The effort was prompted by the discovery of White Nose Syndrome, an extremely virulent disease that has killed more than one million bats since 2007, in one of the handful of caves where Virginia big-eared bats live. Of 40 bats moved to the Smithsonian National Zoo last November, just 11 have survived.

“We were not under the illusion that it was going to be easy. It’s certainly not a surprise to us that the bats died. But the number of bats that died is greater than we had hoped,” said Jeremy Coleman, White Nose Syndrome Coordinator at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

The captive colony project was controversial from the start. With only 15,000 Virginia big-eared bats in existence — up from 3,500 in 1979, but far below historic levels — risking even a few is no small matter. The project also cost $300,000, a big chunk of the $1.9 million allotted by Congress for research on White Nose Syndrome, or WNS.

In the three years since its original detection in an upstate New York cave, WNS has spread south as far as Tennessee, exterminating bat colony after colony with almost total efficiency. The disease appears to be caused by a fungal infection that rouses bats from hibernation, leaving them weak and unable to find food.

There is no known cure, and scientists say that many cave-dwelling bat species — including the little brown bat, the most common bat in North America — could be extinct in a decade. They call the bat die-off “the most precipitous decline of North American wildlife in recorded history” [pdf].

Early in 2009, WNS was found in a West Virginia cave where Virginia big-eared bats lived. Though infected bats belonged to other species, the discovery was frightening. The Fish and Wildlife Service decided to found a captive colony.

“There were many scientists who didn’t think it would work at all, and are philosophically opposed to captive bat populations anyway. The other school of thought is that desperate times call for desperate measures,” said Peter Youngbaer, WNS liaison for the National Speleological Society. “If this species was going to get WNS, and if you didn’t start an intervention now, you’d never have a chance.”

Unlike fruit-eating bats, insect-eating bats like the Virginia big-eared are notoriously difficult to raise in captivity. Accustomed to catching insects on the wing, many of the bats refused to eat worms from pans. Stressed from relocation and habituated to cave-specific temperatures and humidity, others developed runaway bacterial infections. Despite constant attention from researchers, 29 of the bats died.

The Fish and Wildlife Service is now preparing a report on lessons from the experience, though these may be uncertain. “I think they have more unanswered questions than lessons now,” said Youngbaer.

And trouble for the remaining wild bats keeps coming. In February, the first cases of WNS were found in West Virginia’s Hellhole Cave, home to populations of Indiana bats, little brown bats and almost half of all Virginia big-eared bats.

There are no plans to add more bats to the colony, but Coleman said captive breeding remains an option for other species threatened by WNS. In the meantime, it remains to be seen whether the 11 captive bats will survive and even breed.

“There are so few members of that species left. With the captive colony, the thought was, let’s see see if we can get this to work. And then we’ll have done what we can to save them,” said Youngbaer. “At least we won’t have regrets for not having tried.

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Mind the water hazard...floating golf course to be built in Maldives

Cutting-edge development in pipeline as islands plan for effects of climate change
Andrew Buncombe, The Independent 12 Mar 10;

The island nation of the Maldives, confronted by rising oceans and a landscape that is just a few feet above sea level, is poised to build a floating golf course and convention centre in what could be the first of a series of futuristic off-shore developments designed to confront the threat of global warming.

The country’s government has signed an agreement with a Dutch firm to investigate the feasibility of developing a number of facilities that would be located among the 26 main atolls. It is likely the company, Dutch Docklands, will also look into the possibility of building floating homes. It has previously built floating islands in Dubai.

“The methods and procedures developed by the company for floating developments reduce the impact on underwater life, and minimise the changes to coastal morphology,” said a statement issued by the office of President Mohamed Nasheed.

Since coming to office in late 2008, Mr Nasheed, a former political prisoner, has been quick to prioritise climate change as one of the most pressing threats to his nation, which is made up of a total of 1,200 islands. Once of his first announcements after defeating former dictator Maumoon Abdul Gayoom was a plan to try to buy and alternative homeland – possibly in Sri Lanka or India – because of the threat to his nation, more than 80 per cent of which is no more than a metre above sea level.

Parts of the capital, Male, are protected by a three-metre-high defensive wall that cost more than £30m and took a full 14 years to build. The UN has forecast that the oceans are likely to rise by up to 60cm by 2100.

In the aftermath of the Asian tsunami, up to 40 per cent of the Maldives was left lying under water. One hundred people died and the impact of the massive wave spurred the authorities to think about relocating people from the lowest-lying islands to those that are slightly higher. In Kandholhudhoo, a densely populated island in the north of the country, about 60 per cent of residents have already volunteered to evacuate within the next 15 years. The government wishes to see a total of 60 per cent of its inhabitants relocated to higher islands.

Ahead of last year’s Copenhagen summit, the president drew attention to the fate of the Maldives by holding an underwater cabinet meeting at which he and his minister used scuba equipment. Mr Nasheed has also announced plans to turn the Maldives in a carbon-neutral nation within 10 years. As it transpired, no agreement was reached in Copenhagen, to the bitter disappointment of the Maldives president and many other leaders of smaller nations.

“We’re now actually trying to send our message, let the world know what is happening, and what will happen to the Maldives if climate change is not checked,” he said at the time. “If the Maldives cannot be saved today we do not feel that there is much of a chance for the rest of the world.”

Dutch Docklands, which was involved in developing some of the man-made islands that make up The World resort in Dubai, describes itself as “the global leader in floating developments, concepts and infrastructure”. Its website adds: “Our Intellectual Property is based on hundreds of years of experience in the battle against water in the Netherlands.”

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Oil Production to Peak in 2014, Scientists Predict

Jeremy Hsu, livescience.com 12 Mar 10;

Predicting the end of oil has proven tricky and often controversial, but Kuwaiti scientists now say that global oil production will peak in 2014.

Their work represents an updated version of the famous Hubbert model, which correctly predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil reserves would peak within 20 years. Many researchers have since tried using the model to predict when worldwide oil production might peak.

Some have said production already peaked. One earlier model by Swedish researchers suggested that oil would peak sometime between 2008 and 2018. And other researchers have argued there are decades to go before oil production goes into irreversible decline. The only thing they all agree on: Oil is a finite and very valuable resource.

The issue's profile was raised today with a new report projecting increased demand. After peaking above $130 a barrel in mid-2008, crude oil prices dipped to below $40 in early 2009 as global demand tanked amid the recession. Prices have been rising ever since and are above $80 now. Today, the International Energy Agency said it expects demand to resume the sort of growth that was common in recent years. Much of that growth has involved the modernizing economies of China and India.

Updated model

The scientists from Kuwait University and the Kuwait Oil Company adopted a newer approach by including many Hubbert production cycles, or bell-shaped curves showing the rise and fall of a non-recyclable resource. Earlier models typically assumed just one production cycle, despite the fact that most oil-producing nations have historically experienced more of a rollercoaster ride in production.

Such production cycles reflect the influence of new technological innovations in the oil industry, government regulations, economic conditions and political events. The factors include the discovery of new oil deposits, the recent economic recession and the rise of renewable energy.

Take Mexico as just one example. The nation that has long represented a top oil exporter has experienced plummeting oil production, and might even begin importing oil within the decade, the New York Times reports. Its troubles have arisen from a lack of technology to explore more inaccessible oil deposits, and a conundrum stemming from a 1938 law that banned foreign oil companies.

Caltech physicist David Goodstein has argued for a practical approach that focuses on preparing for the end of oil, regardless of when it happens. He noted that the latest prediction seems to represent a serious, thoughtful estimate.

"Of course there are large uncertainties in estimates of this kind, but this one is as good as any I've seen," Goodstein told LiveScience.

Some oil companies and consultancy firms such as Cambridge Energy Research Associates have speculated that oil will peak sometime after 2020, but a number of oil geologists and executives predict it will happen much sooner.

The new model

The Kuwaiti study created its world model for peak oil based on 47 individual models for each major oil-producing nation. It also took a separate look at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which includes nations that control about 35 percent of the world's oil reserves.

More complications may still change the ultimate end date for peak oil. OPEC's latest projection suggests that world oil demand will grow by 900,000 barrels per day in 2010, according to an Associated Press story this week. That follows a period of low oil demand during the height of the worldwide recession in 2009.

For now, Kuwaiti scientists say that the world continues to consume its oil reserves at a rate of about 2.1 percent each year. They plan to continue including new data that can refine the model as time goes by.

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Russia in deal to build nuclear reactors for India

Moscow signs agreement that will see Russia help construct up to 20 atomic plants
Nirmala George, guardian.co.uk 12 Mar 10;

India and Russia today signed a nuclear co-operation agreement, which paves the way for the building of about a dozen nuclear reactors in India, with Russian help, over the next few decades.

The agreement came at the end of talks between Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his Indian counterpart, Manmohan Singh, in New Delhi.

"We are building a strategic partnership with India in the nuclear sector," Putin told business leaders in a video conference earlier.

No exact figures on construction of nuclear reactors were immediately available but last December Russia's nuclear energy chief, Sergei Kiriyenko, had said Moscow would build up to 20 reactors at three sites in India.

Singh said the two sides had completed several important defence co-operation projects, emphasising that ties between the cold war allies remained close. "We regard Russia as a trusted and reliable strategic partner," he said.

The two countries signed a $1.5bn (£1bn) deal for Russia to sell MiG-29K aircraft carrier-based fighter jets to India, with the first deliveries to begin in 2012. The leaders also agreed to intensify their consultations on Afghanistan in tackling the challenges posed by terrorism and extremism in the region, Singh said.

Earlier, Putin told the business leaders that the activities of extremist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan were a "matter of worry for the entire region and the whole world". "Parts of Afghanistan's soil continue to be used by terror groups. We understand the concerns of India regarding the activities of banned outfits in Pakistan," he said.

Other agreements signed Friday included one on the production of satellite navigation systems and others relating to hydrocarbons and the energy sectors, officials said.

Putin also held talks today with India's President Pratibha Patil and ruling Congress party leader Sonia Gandhi.

Discussions between Putin and Singh focussed on strengthening the decades-old bilateral ties between the two countries and examined ways to take them forward as India's burgeoning economy is courted by other players.

India remains one of the world's biggest arms importers and a top Russian arms client, with Moscow supplying nearly 70% of New Delhi's military hardware. Putin said Russia was pursuing technical military co-operation with India that included joint work on a next-generation fighter jet. The two sides further signed a series of agreements marking the end of a protracted dispute over the cost of refurbishing a Soviet-built aircraft carrier, the Admiral Gorshkov, for the Indian navy.

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Industries hoarding greenhouse gas emission permits

Saved permits can be used to meet future targets to cut emissions without reducing pollution
Juliette Jowit and Tim Webb, guardian.co.uk 11 Mar 10;

Companies across Europe are hoarding permits to produce greenhouse gas emissions worth hundreds of millions of pounds, the Guardian can reveal.

The surplus credits have been amassed from over-allocation of permits to pollute from the European emissions trading scheme, and by buying cheap credits from carbon-cutting projects in developing countries and holding on to their more expensive official EU allowances.

The saved permits can be used to meet future targets to cut the greenhouse gas emissions blamed for global warming and climate change without actually reducing pollution, or sold for a profit in the future.

Campaigners for tougher emissions reductions said the saved-up allowances discredited the argument of some industries that much deeper cuts in future would be "fatal" because they could no longer afford to compete against rivals outside the EU.

However, companies involved said the banked credits would help them pay to develop new emission-cutting technology, and to meet emissions targets until that became widely available.

Industry also warned it faced "death by a thousand cuts" as a result of the next phase of the scheme, from 2013 and 2020, and other costly environmental legislation planned by government. Business leaders accused the government of being prepared to sacrifice industry to enable other sectors such as aviation to keep polluting and meet the UK's carbon budgets.

One steelmaker told the Guardian: "Officials see us as acceptable collateral in the fight against climate change. If we don't make anything in this country any more, it means people could still fly to Tenerife once a year and the UK will keep within the carbon budget."

He said meeting targets would require vast amounts of steel to build windfarms, nuclear reactors and electric cars. This would have to be imported from more-polluting steelmakers outside Europe if the industry disappeared in the UK.

The Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), the centrepiece of the EU's pledge to cut greenhouse gases, has already been criticised for giving many companies allowances to emit more emissions than they need, leaving little incentive to reduce pollution, and for lax regulation.

The latest concern about "banking" credits involves companies also buying cheap allowances from "offset" schemes which reduce emissions in other countries, often China and India, and using these to cover their emissions while keeping their official allowances – which are worth more because projects in other countries could in future be banned.

Analysis for the Guardian by campaign group Sandbag of the figures for 2008, the most recent available, looked at the extra allowances accrued by four big sectors: iron and steel, coke ovens, metal ore processing, and cement, which together have 800 installations covered by the trading scheme, and include big names like ArcelorMittal, Thyssenkrupp, Corus, Holcim and Cemex.

Sandbag calculated the four sectors received permits to emit 66m tonnes more carbon dioxide than they needed in 2008, partly because predicted growth did not happen and partly because of the recession towards the end of the year. In addition they bought cheap offsets for a further 18m tonnes plus, which would then free up more EU allowances. In total the surplus allowances would have been worth nearly €1.2bn (£1.1bn) in 2008, or just over €1.1bn at today's closing price of €12.99. Based on the forecast average price of €30 a tonne for the third phase of the ETS from 2013-2016 by analysts Point Carbon they would be worth more than double that in future.

If the companies stockpiled over-allocated surpluses for the whole of this phase of the ETS, from 2008-2012 they could be worth as much as €3.2bn at today's prices, said Sandbag. Any more credits released by buying offsets would be on top of that.

"If they [companies] want cashflow, which in the current climate they may, then they'll cash in the allowances," said Bryony Worthington, Sandbag's founder and director. "But if they are thinking long-term then they'll be thinking 'I should probably hold on to them and insulate myself for the future'."

ArcelorMittal, the world's biggest steel producer, has pledged to use profits to invest in future energy savings to reduce pollution, but there were no guarantees they or any other company would have to do this, said Worthington. "How do we police it, they could be using it for dividends or anything," she added.

Ian Rodgers, director of UK Steel, said: "The climate change agenda won't affect the amount of steel consumed, but it will determine where it's produced."

According to industry estimates, the third phase could cost heavy industry – including steelmakers such as Corus, the chemicals industry and the ceramics industry – €1bn a year.

Sandbag will tomorrow publish in-depth analysis for 2008, including the biggest buyers of offsets from developing countries, and a map linking every offset scheme with their European customers.

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Japan faces rocky path to emissions trading system

Chisa Fujioka, Reuters 12 Mar 10;

(Reuters) - Japan faces a rocky path to launching an emissions trading system after the government approved legislation on Friday that was vague on how the scheme would set limits on emissions.

The proposed climate bill, set to be enacted in parliament by mid-June, set a one-year deadline for the world's fifth-largest greenhouse gas emitter to draft legislation outlining details for a mandatory trading scheme.

A national scheme setting emissions targets could be a major boost for carbon trading in Japan, which only has a voluntary carbon market at the national level based on companies' pledged goals.

But designing the new market risks becoming complicated as the climate bill leaves room for the trading system to set caps on emissions per unit of production, which would allow rises in emissions when output grows.

While an early draft of the bill by the Environment Ministry proposed a "cap-and-trade" scheme that sets absolute volume caps on emissions, the bill was watered down after complaints from businesses that volume caps would stifle growth.

Environment Minister Sakihito Ozawa tried to play down worries on Friday that the bill risked doing little to lower emissions.

"The important thing is that we achieve the 25 percent target and that we boost economic growth with environment (policies)," he said, referring to Japan's target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent by 2020 from 1990 levels on condition a global climate deal is reached.

Ozawa hinted on Thursday that he still envisioned a system based on volume caps, saying the government was likely to adopt a methodology that used industries' carbon efficiency to set absolute emission limits.

He added, however, that nothing had been decided and that details of the scheme would be worked out over the next year.

INDUSTRY PRESSURE

Cap-and-trade, which sets limits on emissions that becomes tougher over time, would force companies to invest in steps to cut their carbon pollution or face having to buy permits for every metric ton of emissions that they are over their target.

Businesses, struggling with a fragile economic recovery and deflation, have instead favored carbon intensity goals, which would encourage them to boost energy efficiency but still allow them to increase output.

Industry groups have put pressure on the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) in protest at volume caps, posing a dilemma for the government as it struggles with declining support ahead of an election for the upper house expected in July.

METI denied on Friday that the climate bill, which calls for the government to set volume caps in principle but to also "consider carbon intensity," restricted debate simply to using carbon intensity as a tool to determine volume caps.

"We have checked and that is not the interpretation of the wording," a METI official told reporters.

The vagueness of the climate bill, along with uncertainties over the fate of climate legislation in the United States, could lead to a drawn-out process in designing the trading scheme, an analyst said.

"Designing the emissions trading scheme will be complicated, because debate from now won't just involve cabinet ministers but other officials from various ministries," said Yasushi Setoguchi, deputy general manager of environment, natural resources and energy at Mizuho Information and Research Institute.

"In the meantime, companies will find it harder to plan their strategies ahead."

(Editing by Alex Richardson)

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