Imelda Saad Channel NewsAsia 23 Feb 13;
SINGAPORE: The Workers' Party has released its own paper on Population, just two weeks after Parliament endorsed a report charting the country's strategies to mitigate an ageing and shrinking population.
Titled 'A Dynamic Population for a Sustainable Singapore', the Workers' Party makes a case for a population projection of about 5.8 million by 2030. This is down from the 6.9 million in the government's White Paper.
The party aims to achieve that with an annual resident workforce growth of one per cent, a freeze to the foreign workforce growth rate and a projected GDP growth of between 1.5 and 2.5 per cent in the next decade. That is half a percentage point down from the government's GDP projections.
The recent debate on population issues was one of the most passionate seen in Parliament with MPs from both the ruling and opposition parties raising concerns over issues such as over-crowding, the Singapore identity and quality of life.
All nine Workers' Party MPs had opposed the Population Paper and Land Use Plan.
They were among the 13 who opposed the motion with one abstention. 77 MPs voted Yes.
In coming up with its own 38-page proposal, Workers' Party Secretary-General Low Thia Khiang said the party believes it is important to encourage further debate so that Singaporeans can make informed judgements on the population issue.
"In view of the important and complexity of the subject, as well as the fundamental differences between WP and the government on the approach to tackle the population challenges ahead, we have decided to publish our Population Policy Paper," Mr Low added.
At the heart of the paper are improving Singapore's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Labour Force Participation Rate, instead of what the party describes as "immigration-driven growth" as a long-term solution to the country's demographic challenges.
Like the government, the Workers' Party also believes in a strong Singaporean core, but disagrees on how to sustain and nurture this core.
Workers' Party's Treasurer and Non-Constituency Member of Parliament, Yee Jenn Jong, said: "By Singapore core, we also want to look at what is the solution behind this? So why do we emphasise on one per cent local workforce growth? It is that we want to look internally to see whether we can achieve that target. And only in circumstances where we believe that it cannot be reached, then that is where we do factor in population top ups with foreign workers."
The report fleshes out three scenarios to explain how its total population projection of between 5.6 and 5.8 million is arrived at.
The projection is based on the following assumptions:
- That 10,000 new citizens are taken in every year as opposed to taking in 15,000 to 25,000 new citizens a year under the government's white paper.
- The non-resident population is capped at current numbers - that is 1.5 million.
- The resident workforce growth is one per cent annually.
In scenario one, the TFR recovers to 1.75 by 2030 and the Labour Force Participation Rate improves to 78.7 per cent. This will give a total population of about 5.7 million by 2030.
In the second scenario, the TFR is stagnant at 1.3 but the Labour Force Participation Rate improves to 78.7 per cent. This gives a total population of about 5.6 million.
And in the least ideal scenario three, both the TFR and Labour Force Participation Rate remain stagnant at 1.3 and 72.2 per cent respectively.
The total population will be about 5.8 million, with more foreign workers taken in to make up for the shortfall, because the one per cent growth in resident workforce is not met.
Under scenario three, about 400,000 foreign workers are needed by 2030 as opposed to about 200,000 in scenario two.
The proposal to cap the foreign worker numbers here at current levels have met with swift rebuttals from some business groups already struggling with labour costs.
The party maintains though that its proposals do not turn off the foreign worker tap because for "every foreign worker that leaves Singapore, another foreign worker could be brought in".
Mr Yee explained: "If you look closely at the population numbers, you will find that actually the next few years, there is already a natural increase in local workforce entering the market because we have more young people entering the workforce than there are older people retiring. The problem only comes a few years down the road when we have more people retiring."
The party proposes help for businesses such as lower rentals, utilities and capital costs to offset the higher labour costs of restructuring.
Mr Yee said: "Of course we do acknowledge that the businesses do need to adjust and as in any economic restructuring there will be certain pains and there will be certain businesses that can restructure to meet this new environment. There will be certain businesses that are very dependent on cheap foreign manpower and they cannot survive.
"I think this is an adjustment that Singapore will sooner or later go through and we are asking for an alternative - to look at the scenario, what happens under this proposal, what is the eventual population target and then we have to look at what we have to do to help these companies make that bridge if we believe that it is important for us to have a sustainable Singapore. Then we will all have to work together to look at how to help the companies, who can adapt to this environment over a period of time. It can also be through policies, it may not be only through manpower numbers, because there are a lot of things hurting companies."
To grow the resident labour force, the Workers' Party proposes measures to get more women and elderly into the workforce.
The party also proposes what it calls "structural reforms" to improve the TFR.
These include making it mandatory for companies to offer work-life balance initiatives and incentivising them to do so.
The party has also proposed that 10 per cent of land be set aside as reserves for future generations instead of the four per cent outlined in the government's white paper.
Assistant Professor Eugene Tan, who is also a Nominated MP, said: "They are confident that based on their own projections, we can still achieve a reasonable growth rate. For example to 2020 as well as 2030, they are looking about 0.5 to one per cent off from the government's own white paper growth target or estimates. My question really is would the Workers Party's be able to elaborate on how different the quality of life, how Singaporeans wealth would be affected even for the bottom 20 per cent, if we have a slower economic growth rate.
"We need that clarity because in order for Singaporeans to say maybe we can go for slower growth, I think it is important for proponents of slower growth to actually be able to spell out exactly what are the differences, so that Singaporeans can make an informed decision. If that is what Singaporeans want, then the government of the day will have to somehow accommodate that or be able to persuade Singaporeans that that level of growth rate is not going to work in the long run.
"When you look at the Workers' Party position as articulated in their population paper, it is clear that they have taken on board the concerns of Singaporeans and so I think in that sense it will certainly go down well with Singaporeans. But as I have mentioned earlier, the key question is are the plans really viable? Will they actually enable Singapore to continue to be a very attractive place? Not just for talented people who may want to become citizens but also for Singaporeans."
Because of its long term implications, the government has said that the conversation continues even though the Population Paper and Land Use Plan have been endorsed.
In fact, the Our Singapore Conversation Committee tasked with getting Singaporeans to come to a consensus about the kind of future they want for the country, is expected to roll out a series of dialogues to discuss this very topic.
- CNA/ir/fa
WP releases own population paper
Counterproposal puts focus on raising total fertility rate and resident labour force participation rate
Janice Heng Straits Times 24 Feb 13;
The Workers' Party (WP) yesterday issued its population paper as a counterproposal to the Government's.
It criticised what it called the Population White Paper's model of immigration-driven growth, and said that the focus should instead be on raising the total fertility rate (TFR) and the resident labour force participation rate.
The 38-page document, titled A Dynamic Population For A Sustainable Singapore, fleshes out points made by the nine WP MPs during this month's parliamentary debate on the White Paper, which they also voted against.
WP secretary-general Low Thia Khiang said in a statement that the party hoped the paper "will enable Singaporeans to better understand the rationale and computations behind WP's proposals".
The paper argues that the best way to maintain a Singaporean core is by raising fertility rather than relying on new citizens. The WP has proposed taking in 10,000 new citizens a year compared to the Government's 15,000 to 25,000.
It believes that in granting citizenship, priority should be given to non-citizen spouses of Singaporeans. Its figure of 10,000 new citizens a year is based on a trend of more such marriages, which numbered more than 9,000 in 2011.
It identifies several structural obstacles to raising TFR, which it said the Government had not done enough to address in its latest enhanced Marriage and Parenthood Package. These are: a lack of work- life balance, rising housing costs, income inequality leading to anxiety over economic risks, lack of gender equality in the family and a stressful education system.
The paper also argues that pro-natalist policy should not privilege higher-income families, nor should it withhold benefits from single parents.
Another key part of the WP's plan is growing the resident workforce at 1 per cent a year. If this target is met, the WP proposes to freeze foreign worker numbers at the current level.
To do this, the WP proposes getting more women and older Singaporeans into the workforce. Its target is for 85 per cent of women aged between 25 and 54 to be in the workforce, up from 76.6 per cent now. It points out that in Denmark, Finland and France, both TFR and the women's labour force participation rate are higher than Singapore's.
Meanwhile, older Singaporeans should not be seen as "dependants", but as "golden resources" and a vital part of the labour force.
And as Singapore's economy restructures, the WP suggests the Government "address the rental, capital and energy costs" that are holding back entrepreneurial small and medium enterprises.
On urban planning, the WP is against higher population density, and wants 10 per cent of total land area kept as land reserves, up from the Government's proposed 4 per cent in 2030. This would give the future generation more leeway in dealing with "economic and demographic exigencies".
Apart from hard policy, the paper also tackles issues of identity. On the idea of the "Singaporean core", the WP said that there is consensus on the need for one, but disagreement over its definition.
On Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's point that the Singaporean core is "not just about the numbers, but about the spirit", the WP said the proportion of Singaporeans is still crucial. The WP proposal will keep the share of citizens at around 60 per cent of the total population, as compared to 55 per cent by 2030 in the White Paper.
The more non-Singaporeans there are compared to Singaporeans, the higher the chances of "an ambiguous and indistinct national identity developing", it said.
The party also took issue with the use of a quote by the late deputy prime minister S. Rajaratnam: "Being a Singaporean is not a matter of ancestry. It is conviction and choice."
Using this to argue in favour of being more open to new citizens is a "misunderstanding", said the WP. Mr Rajaratnam was making the point that other cultural identities had to be abandoned before national identity could be developed.
The WP said the best way to build a Singaporean core is to "ensure that more Singaporeans go through shared experience like in schools and family life and national institutions like national service".
Grace Fu: Govt studying paper
Straits Times 24 Feb 13;
Minister in the Prime Minister's Office Grace Fu responded to the Workers' Party's (WP's) population paper on Facebook last night.
The Government was "studying the paper", she said. She noted that the report appeared to be a collation of what the party had raised in Parliament. Many points had been responded to.
She noted the WP's agreement with the Government on the need to make marriage and parenthood a priority, increase productivity and raise labour participation among older Singaporeans and women.
"These are priorities that the Government has been pursuing vigorously for some time," she said.
The key difference was in approach, she added, with the WP wanting to freeze foreign workforce numbers immediately, whereas the Government wants to tighten inflows but give businesses time to adjust.
The WP's stance on foreign labour "will cause great hardship to Singaporeans and SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises)". Health care and the construction of flats and train lines will also be badly affected, she added.
Ms Fu also asked how adding women and senior citizens to the workforce, as WP proposed, could fill the need for foreign workers "where we need them most - such as construction and cleaning/ maintenance".
As for the WP paper's look at South Korea as a model for fertility policy, Ms Fu said the Government studied many countries before coming up with its policy package.
She noted that South Korea's recent total fertility rate was 1.23 and Seoul's 1.02, "lower than Singapore's despite having implemented the package since 2005".
Janice Heng
WP's proposal will hurt Singapore SMEs and workers: Grace Fu
Imelda Saad Channel NewsAsia 23 Feb 13;
SINGAPORE: Minister in the Prime Minister's Office Grace Fu has said that the government is studying the opposition Workers' Party's (WP) Population paper released on Saturday.
However, she added the key difference in the WP's paper and the government's paper, which has been endorsed in parliament, is in its approach.
Posting on her Facebook page, Ms Fu said the WP wants to freeze foreign workforce growth immediately which she said, will hurt Singapore small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and workers.
She said the government's plan on the other hand is to significantly tighten the inflow of new foreign workers, but allow businesses time to make adjustment and help SMEs in particular, make the transition.
Ms Fu touched on several points raised in the WP's paper.
Among them is the argument that by raising the resident labour force participation rate, Singapore can maintain its non-resident workforce at the current numbers.
Ms Fu said this will "cause great hardship to Singaporeans and SMEs", which employ 70 per cent of Singaporean workers.
She said if these businesses fail, many Singaporean workers and their families will suffer and added healthcare, construction of HDB homes, and train lines will also be affected badly.
"WP argues that by encouraging more senior citizens and homemakers to work, we don't need additional foreign workers. But how can our seniors and women fill the need for workers now where we need them most - such as construction and cleaning/maintenance?", said Ms Fu.
"The Paper mentioned (South) Korea as the ideal model for Marriage & Parenthood (M&P). We have studied many countries and consulted extensively before arriving at a comprehensive M&P package. We are prepared to consider all workable ideas. By the way, (South) Korea's recent TFR is 1.23 and Seoul's is 1.02, lower than Singapore's despite having implemented the package since 2005," she added.
She noted that the WP's paper showed agreement with the government on the need to make Marriage and Parenthood a priority, increase productivity and labour participation among seniors and homemakers.
These, she said are priorities that the government has been pursuing vigorously for some time.
- CNA/fa
Workers’ Party Population Policy Paper: http://www.scribd.com/doc/126850975/WP-Population-Policy-Paper-Feb-2013
Government responds to population paper by Workers' Party
Imelda Saad Channel NewsAsia 5 Mar 13;
SINGAPORE: The Singapore government has issued its response to the Population Policy Paper released by the opposition Workers' Party on February 23.
It said if a realistic adjustment is applied to the Workers' Party's projections, the population would in fact go up by more than 200,000 and go beyond six million in 2030.
The WP's paper had sketched out a projected population of about 5.8 million by that time.
The government said one of the main differences is that the Workers' Party assumes a higher mortality rate and lower life expectancy of the citizen population.
This could underestimate both the size of the population and the number of elderly in the population.
This in turn, it said, would have implications on the dependency ratio - that is, the number of worker adults supporting the elderly.
The assumption would also affect Singapore's social and health services needed.
The government added that the WP's assumptions on labour force participation rates (LFPR) are also much higher than what's achieved by advanced developed economies with the highest LFPR today, and may not have taken into account the effects of our ageing population on LFPR.
It said there may be a need to make up for a 100,000 shortfall in the workforce if the party's projected labour force participation rate is not achieved.
The WP, it said, could also have underestimated the economic impact of its proposal to freeze the foreign workforce growth.
They project a 0.5 per cent per year difference in GDP growth between their proposal and the government's. Abruptly closing off foreign worker inflows could disrupt the economy.
It said the net result could be much lower productivity and GDP growth than that assumed, and that the risk of a contracting economy is much higher.
And this, said the government, could impact wage growth and job opportunities.
"Until our TFR improves significantly, the immigration rate of 10,000 SC per year proposed by the WP does not replace the citizen population, and will result in a decline in the citizen population from 2030," it said.
The Workers' Party released its own paper on population, just two weeks after Parliament endorsed the Government's report charting the country's strategies to mitigate an ageing and shrinking population.
Titled 'A Dynamic Population for a Sustainable Singapore', the Workers' Party makes a case for a population projection of about 5.8 million by 2030 - down from the 6.9 million in the government's White Paper.
And the projection comes with an annual resident workforce growth of 1 per cent, a freeze to the foreign workforce growth rate, and a projected GDP growth of between 1.5 and 2.5 per cent in the next decade (2020-2030) - half a percentage point down from the government's GDP projections.
But like the government, the Workers' Party also believes in a strong Singaporean core. It disagrees, however, on how to sustain and nurture this core.
- CNA/de
Citizen population ‘could decline’ under WP plan
The Government said the WP’s projection could underestimate the size of Singapore’s population in 2030. Photo: Bloomberg
Tan Weizhen Today Online 6 Mar 13;
SINGAPORE — Proposals made by the Workers’ Party’s (WP) population policy paper — which, among other things, called for a freeze on foreign worker numbers and a lower immigration rate — could result in a shrinking citizen population from 2030, the Government said yesterday in its official response.
Questioning some of the WP’s underlying assumptions on mortality and labour force participation rates, for instance, the Government said that if a “realistic adjustment” is applied, the WP’s total population projection of 5.6 million to 5.8 million will increase by more than 200,000 and go beyond six million in 2030.
The Opposition party also “underestimated the economic impact” of its proposal to freeze foreign workforce growth, it added.
“The WP frames their proposal as trading off 0.5 per cent in annual GDP (gross domestic product) growth for one million less in population. A key risk is whether a rapidly ageing and stagnant or slow-growing workforce would be able to achieve the productivity targets of 2 to 3 per cent up to 2020 and 1 to 2 per cent beyond 2020, which the WP has assumed.”
The response, which was published on the website population.sg, pointed out that until the Republic’s Total Fertility Rate improves “significantly”, the immigration rate of 10,000 new citizens per year proposed by the WP “does not replace the citizen population, and will result in a decline in the citizen population from 2030”.
The Government said the WP’s projection “assumes a higher mortality rate and lower life expectancy of the citizen population”, which could underestimate both the size of the population and the number of elderly in the population.
Under the WP’s projection, the number of residents aged 65 and above in 2030 would be 170,000 — 18 per cent less than the Government’s projections. This would have implications on the dependency ratio as well as the social and health services needed, the Government said.
By comparison, the Government projects life expectancy at birth to increase, similar to the United Nations’ projection for Singapore.
It added that the WP’s assumptions on labour force participation rates were “much higher than that achieved by advanced developed economies with the highest (rates) today, and may not have taken into account the effects of our ageing population”.
There may be a need to make up for a 100,000 shortfall in the workforce if the WP’s projected rates are not achieved, the Government said.
In Parliament yesterday, Minister of State (Manpower) Amy Khor, who was speaking during the Budget debate, described the WP’s proposal to raise the labour force participation rates by 0.5 per cent per annum till 2025 — to reach about 78.7 per cent, which is higher than Sweden’s current rate of 74.8 per cent — as “hopeful but unrealistic”.
In its paper, which was published about two weeks ago, the WP also projected GDP growth of between 1.5 and 2.5 per cent in the next decade — half a percentage point lower than the Government’s GDP projections — should foreign worker numbers be capped at current levels.
The Government said: “Abruptly closing off foreign worker inflows could disrupt the economy. The net result could be much lower productivity and GDP growth than that assumed. The risk of a contracting economy is much higher and this could impact wage growth and job opportunities.”
Referring to the WP’s proposals of flexi-work arrangements to bring women and seniors back into the workforce, it added: “While better education generally improves the likelihood for women and older residents to work, a large ageing population will offset its effect.”
This happens even in Nordic countries, where there is a higher propensity for the population to work, it said.
The WP could not respond by press time to TODAY’s queries on the Government’s response. However, it said it is studying the response.
Govt responds to WP's population paper
It highlights implications arising from underestimating aged population's size
Janice Heng Straits Times 6 Mar 13;
THE Government yesterday responded to the Workers' Party's (WP) population paper, questioning assumptions made in its projections and raising concerns over the consequences of its proposals.
The WP released its paper last month, following the heated parliamentary debate on the Government's White Paper on Population. In it, the opposition party projected a population in 2030 of up to 5.8 million, more than one million less than the Government's contentious worst-case scenario of 6.9 million. The party also called for a freeze on the number of foreign workers.
Yesterday, the National Population and Talent Division (NPTD) put up comments on the paper on its population.sg website.
It noted that WP assumed a higher mortality rate and lower life expectancy than the Government. For instance, the alternative paper expects men's life expectancy at birth to improve from 79.3 years in 2010 to 80.2 in 2015, and then stay constant.
The Government, however, put life expectancy at 80.4 in 2015, improving to 82.2 in 2030, and then 83.6 in 2060 in line with the United Nations' projections.
"As such, the WP would have underestimated the potential size of our aged population, in particular those in the oldest age brackets, which would have implications on the dependency ratio as well as social and health services needed," it said.
A "realistic adjustment" to WP's projections would push its total population projection up by more than 200,000, said NPTD.
The Government also said that WP might not have taken into account the ageing population in assumptions about increases in the labour force participation rates. WP numbers exceed those achieved by even advanced developed economies with the highest participation rates today.
NPTD also warned against the impact of the proposal to slow annual workforce growth by stopping foreign worker inflows. It said the "abrupt" change might keep new firms from opening and existing ones from expanding, even forcing closures. Construction of infrastructure will also be delayed.
And there is a risk that "a rapidly ageing and stagnant or slow-growing workforce" might not be able to achieve the productivity targets of 2 to 3 per cent up to 2020, and 1 to 2 per cent after that, which the WP assumed.
Finally, the NPTD pointed out that the WP's proposed immigration rate would mean a shrinking citizen population.
"Until our TFR (total fertility rate) improves significantly, the immigration rate of 10,000 per year proposed by the WP does not replace the citizen population, and will result in a decline in the citizen population from 2030," it said.
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