Battlefield Tour – Sunday 30 June 13
from a.t.Bukit Brown. Heritage. Habitat. History.
Save MacRitchie Forest: 5. Refuge for Reptiles
from Bird Ecology Study Group
Hazy Friday
from Lazy Lizard's Tales
Day out at Chek Jawa with special guests
from Adventures with the Naked Hermit Crabs and wild shores of singapore and Lazy Lizard's Tales
Straits Times 15 Jun 13;
DAYS after the White Paper came out, with its projection of a 6.9 million population by 2030, came a policy plan in January showing, among other things, how to accommodate that number.
This is the Ministry of National Development's Land Use Plan.
How the plan squeezes in more people and infrastructure affects the environment in ways that encompass the good, the bad and the ugly, say conservation-minded nature groups.
The good: By 2030, the Government wants 85 per cent of residents to be able to live within 400m of a park, and has a planning target of 0.8ha of parkland per 1,000 people.
Eco groups also like that the plan outlined new nature areas with different habitats: Jalan Gemala in Lim Chu Kang for marshes, woodland and a river; a reef and intertidal area at Beting Bronok off Pulau Tekong; and coastal mangroves at nearby Pulau Unum.
The bad: some of the land reclamation. Environment groups say the plans appear to swallow up biodiversity-rich shores, including mangrove areas in Mandai and Pasir Ris, areas with marine life like Chek Jawa and Pulau Sekudu, and even perhaps islands like Pulau Hantu.
They are also concerned about how the Cross-Island MRT line goes through the Central Catchment Nature Reserve, a gazetted reserve.
In Parliament, Nominated Member of Parliament Faizah Jamal asked if any environmental impact assessment had been done in the first place.
Mr N. Sivasothi, of the Toddycats volunteer group at the Raffles Museum of Biodiversity Research, asked why "existing sites under the highest protection can be casually subverted to a transport plan".
The Land Transport Authority is now engaging civic groups on the issue.
This week, it met nature groups and academics, and agreed to hold off conducting its environmental impact assessment until nature groups finish a six-month study on how different rail-line alignments will affect the reserve.
Mr Tony O'Dempsey, council member of the Nature Society (Singapore), also highlighted that there would be high-density developments right up to the edge of nature reserves.
These produce light, sound and smell pollution and changes in lighting and wind flow, he said. "The bite-back is you end up with monkey and other wild animal interactions, and the Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority solution to this problem is culling the animals that become a nuisance."
The ugly: lack of prior consultation, internally and with civic groups and the public, over the overall environmental impact of the Land Use Plan.
Mr Sivasothi said: "The question should be: Has the Government asked these questions on a broad scale?
We should model the situation to circumvent predicted impact, not simply respond to stress points."
Mr O'Dempsey added that the average citizen is not necessarily familiar with longstanding urban plans, "hence the conflict that occurs when the planned use is 'activated' by the agencies".
Rather, plans should be communicated in a more accessible way, he said.
And what of the Government's green-spot guardian, the National Parks Board (NParks)?
The Cross-Island Line was no surprise to NParks, said its former chief executive Kiat W. Tan, now NParks adviser and chief executive of Gardens by the Bay.
"It was always the other shoe waiting to drop," he said. However, he has "great optimism" that an environmentally sensitive alternative can be found, even if expedience is sacrificed.
And NParks chief executive Poon Hong Yuen said Singapore is capable of coming up with creative solutions to the space crunch, such as drainage reserves doubling as park connectors.
When agencies' mandates conflict, a serious attempt is made to find a solution, or at least develop in a way to retain, replace or enhance the greenery that was there before.
"The objective, the most important thing, really is to create a better Singapore for Singaporeans," he said.
GRACE CHUA
The past 50 years has seen the greening of Singapore. But even as people become more eco-aware, population needs put pressure on the environment. Grace Chua looks at the challenges.
Straits Times 15 Jun 13;
YOU look out the window of your HDB flat at a view that makes you happy. It is a wide expanse of trees and grass, an open space where children play football or where yellow orioles sing. But one day, hoardings go up, construction cranes move in. And your view is gone.
Some may shrug and see it as the price of progress. Others will be sad at the loss of yet another precious slice of nature in this tiny island of so many people.
And, amid the rise of civic activism, a small but vocal minority might wonder: Could I have done something about it?
Such a scenario is a microcosm of the conflict between urbanisation and nature, that pits the needs of a growing country, such as infrastructure and housing, against less quantifiable needs such as the value of species-rich forests.
However, recently those less quantifiable things have been found to have their own currency, now that the perils of climate change have reared their head, with more pollution and fewer trees able to filter carbon from the atmosphere.
Going green now also means tangible benefits such as realising that trees help filter pollution particles and make for cleaner air, or that, planted wisely, their shade can reduce the need for expensive air-conditioning.
And to some extent, planners see the need to be eco-aware, too, with the latest Land Use Plan released in January setting a target of 0.8 park ha per 1,000 residents by 2030.
Still, there's no escaping that tension, seen just this week as Trains versus Trees. Nature groups are upset over plans for an MRT line through the Central Catchment Nature Reserve.
Ironically, tomorrow marks 50 years since the greening of Singapore took off officially, when the first tree-planting campaign was launched.
Today, that planting campaign still continues, but even as trees are planted, others are chopped down to make way for development.
Can any balance ever be found between a space crunch and the need for different shades of green?
What are the challenges that lie ahead in trying to reconcile the two, especially as Singapore's population grows?
How going green took root
ON JUNE 16, 1963, then-Singapore Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew planted a slender mempat sapling at a traffic roundabout called Holland Circus.
Trees such as the mempat - known for its pretty pink blossoms - certainly are pretty to have around.
But decades before it became fashionable to be environmentally conscious, Mr Lee put shovel to soil to kick off a tree-planting campaign to help bring rain. It was the middle of a drought at the time, and leaves help send water vapour into the atmosphere.
Pragmatic Mr Lee also wanted to send visitors and investors the message that Singapore was a disciplined nation able to tend to its people and its environment.
As well, an island-wide greening programme was a social equaliser, in contrast to British rule, when only wealthy enclaves like Tanglin had cultivated gardens.
Since 1963, Mr Lee - often dubbed Singapore's "Chief Gardener" - has unfailingly planted a tree every year, typically in November, at the start of the rainy season.
Professor Leo Tan, who in 1973 was a young biology lecturer at the University of Singapore, said: "Originally, people took (trees) for granted. The assumption was that we had enough green. But Lee Kuan Yew had this vision."
Singapore was a fledgling country, and it was not immediately clear why government money should be spent on greening.
But Mr Lee in his memoir, From Third World To First, called it "the most cost-effective project I have launched" to differentiate Singapore from its developing neighbours.
But the scheme was not without flaws. Prof Tan said: "At that time, any green would do. A lot of it was cosmetic, such as trees along the drive from the airport to town. That's the first impression visitors had of Singapore."
There was also little understanding of conservation.
Even as planting took place, much of Singapore's mangroves were cleared as they were thought to breed mosquitoes.
Clearing continued throughout the 1970s and 1980s as natural spaces were developed for housing, ports and industry.
"I watched Tanjong Rhu make way for development, Sembawang for a shipyard. My research site made way for Changi Terminal," Prof Tan said.
"I was really angry as a young lecturer - my research sites became the history of natural history."
In 1986, the Bukit Timah Expressway was built, slicing between Bukit Timah Nature Reserve and the central catchment forests.
It was the last straw for some. In the late 1980s, several members of the Nature Reserves Board (National Parks Board's precursor) resigned en masse, including Prof Tan, the Nature Society's Mr Richard Hale, and the board's then secretary, Dr Kiat W. Tan.
"We said, 'If we are here to supervise the demise of every nature reserve, there is no point'," said Prof Tan.
But they were persuaded to stay on for the formation of the National Parks Board (NParks) in 1990.
Recalling those eco-wilderness years, Dr Tan, who went on to be NParks CEO and who is now Gardens by the Bay CEO, said there was little civic sense then.
"People were stealing plants. The parks were not used. Some MPs said, why are we wasting so much money on parks and greenery?"
In 1990, signs had to be posted along the East Coast Parkway explaining to the public why the grass was allowed to grow.
Even the tree that Mr Lee planted at Holland Circus was removed when the roundabout made way for a flyover in 1997.
Learning to hug nature
TODAY, there are more than 300 public parks, from pocket-sized neighbourhood ones to destination parks like East Coast Park. About 50 per cent of Singapore is under vegetative cover, more than half of which is "natural" green, like scrublands and forests.
NParks chief executive Poon Hong Yuen says public reception has completely shifted. "In times past, people complained about leaves falling and creating a mess; now when we chop down a tree, people complain."
When NParks recently asked for feedback on what people want from destination parks and an upcoming round-island park network, "people said, 'We don't want our parks to be just manicured, with no wooded area'. That surprised us because in the past, people would tell us they wanted an amphitheatre or a hard court. It's a bit more sophisticated now."
Is that a reaction to being surrounded by more built-up space? Perhaps, he said.
An NParks survey in 2010 revealed that 90 per cent of those polled say parks and greenery are important, even if they do not visit parks. The same number think nature should be conserved, even if they don't visit nature.
Yes, residents still complain of the noise and mess from, say, koels roosting in trees. But planners, academics and the public increasingly recognise the ecological value of nature, which can protect against the effects of climate change.
The Building and Construction Authority looks to mangroves for coastal protection from sea-level rise. The Public Utilities Board has its ABC Waters programme, which cuts flood risk by turning canals into planted, more natural waterways.
And studies from the National University of Singapore (NUS) show that green cover reduces the high temperatures that result when buildings and roads trap heat, and that natural areas support a more diverse range of birds and butterflies than cultivated ones.
Some green innovations developed here have even gone international. Architect Ong Boon Lay came up with the concept of the green plot ratio, which measures the amount and quality of greenery used in architecture and has been applied to cities in Sri Lanka and Egypt.
In 2008, Singapore committed itself to developing the first City Biodiversity Index, which is used by parties to the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diver-sity.
At home, greening has helped shape Singapore's identity as the Garden City, then the City in a Garden.
Take the national Community In Bloom community-garden programme, launched in 2005. At first, people felt the Government should take care of greenery in their estates.
"Now, people see the point of it - it brings the community closer together," said NParks' Mr Poon.
Senior research fellow Belinda Yuen, an urban planner at the Singapore University of Technology and Design's Lee Kuan Yew Centre for Innovative Cities, pointed out that besides "active" uses of green space such as for exercise and picnics, there is an indirect psychological benefit.
People like having a view of a garden or nature area, she said - they know it is available to escape to if needed.
Battles and trade-offs
IS THERE a difference in benefit or value depending on whether you're looking at a cultivated park or a natural area?
Little work on that has been done in Singapore yet, Dr Yuen said. "We need to conduct a study to better understand what exact value people ascribe to open space."
But vociferous public debate over areas like a Pasir Ris patch of empty land, slated for an international school, and Bukit Brown cemetery, earmarked for housing, demonstrates "the people don't just want manicured parks, they want wild areas also", said Mr Tony O'Dempsey, a council member of The Nature Society (Singapore) (NSS).
"Promising a manicured park within some distance of each household - as per the White Paper discussion (see other report) - is missing the point of what I think people really want."
The NSS is concerned that small forest patches at Bukit Timah, Lornie, Mandai and Seletar are getting too separated by roads from larger reserves to sustain rich plant and animal life.
It has identified green sites rich in biodiversity that should get higher priority in protection efforts, and is currently preparing a report on the overall green impact of the Government's Land Use Plan.
And Mr N. Sivasothi, an NUS biology lecturer and coordinator of the Raffles Museum Toddycats volunteer group, calls for the protection of specific biodiversity-rich areas such as the Mandai mudflats.
In an impassioned speech on the White Paper and Land Use Plan in Parliament earlier this year, Nominated Member of Parliament Faizah Jamal said the plan's emphasis on parks "reflects a disturbing need for human control - not just green spaces, but indeed the constant need to control life itself".
Afterwards, she said, several MPs came up privately to agree with what she said.
Civil servants and politicians operate based on efficiency and cost-effectiveness, she noted. And providing parks for more users focuses on people, who are also voters.
"But that's not a paradigm that works any more" because of the growing importance of the ecological services that wild places provide.
But how long will it be before nature becomes a real voter issue?
On the one hand, urbanites don't interact with nature every day and don't see the value of the clean air or fresh water it provides.
"On the other hand, I see young people actually doing something about it."
The next 50 years
AS NPARKS' Mr Poon puts it: "The top three challenges for us are space, space and space."
However, it is precisely because the population is growing that more nature also needs to be retained - to address the impact of climate change, serve as an emotional anchor, and meet recreational needs.
But what happens when NParks' mandate clashes with another agency's - say, when planners decide a space is needed for housing?
At the senior levels of government, there is an understanding that greenery is important, said Mr Poon. So there is a serious attempt to come up with a solution - to retain or replace or enhance greenery.
"In the past, we've been quite reactive - the Land Transport Authority says we want to do road-widening, we say you can't get rid of this tree. Now, you're doing road-widening, can (NParks) do something to beautify the area?"
Still, retaining natural or managed areas, and adding new ones, remains a process of give and take.
Later this month, an official tree-planting event will take place at Holland Village Park, not far from where Mr Lee planted his first mempat tree.
And perhaps symbolising how much the need to value the environment has taken root, even amid necessary development, in order to build the pocket-sized green lung - completed in 2011 - it was a carpark that made way.
A BRIEF HISTORY OF GREENING IN SINGAPORE
1963
Mr Lee Kuan Yew plants a tree at Holland Circus as start of island-wide campaign
Parks and Trees Unit formed underPublic Works Department
Post- independence, mangroves at Pandan and Kranji cleared for development
1967
Garden City programme of roadside landscaping launched
1971
The first Tree Planting Day held (November); replaced by Clean and Green Week in 1990
1973
Labrador Beach de-gazetted to be nature park
1974
Parks and Recreation Department formed
1986
Bukit Timah Expressway constructed, cutting through Bukit Timah and Central Catchment Nature Reserve
1989
Sungei Buloh given nature park status after Malayan Nature Society (Singapore) calls on Government to conserve it
1990
Nature Society of Singapore (NSS) publishes its master plan for nature conservation
1990-91
National Parks Board (NParks) established to oversee nature reserves, Singapore Botanic Gardens and Fort Canning Park
1992
Government publishes its first Green Plan; Lower Peirce Reservoir golf-course development put on hold after environmental impact assessment by NSS
1996
Parks and Recreation Department merges with NParks
2001
Labrador Park re-gazetted as nature reserve
2002
Sungei Buloh gazetted as nature reserve
2009
Eco-link between Bukit Timah and Central Catchment reserves over the BKE is announced; Blue Plan by academics and non-government groups is submitted to Government, proposes specific marine areas that have high conservation value
2010
NParks, National University of Singapore and corporate sponsors begin five-year Comprehensive Marine Biodiversity Survey
2012
Gardens by the Bay officially opened
2013
Government publishes its Population White Paper and Land Use Plan laying out plans till 2030
Nature groups raise concerns about environmental impact, particularly of Cross-Island Line
Land Transport Authority agrees to postpone its Environmental Impact Assessment report till nature groups have studied the effect of different rail-line alignments
Leong Wai Kit Channel NewsAsia 14 Jun 13;
SINGAPORE: The haze has returned to Singapore. The PSI reading, which measures the haze, was at 54 at 7am in Singapore. It climbed to over 85 after 2pm. At 7pm, it dipped to 82.
Any reading above 100 is considered unhealthy.
The National Environment Agency (NEA) said the haze and burning smell are from fires in Sumatra.
NEA said 85 hotspots were detected on 6 June 2013 over Sumatra in Indonesia.
Winds from the southwest or west during the current southwest monsoon season have also brought the haze to Singapore.
NEA said Singapore has been affected by slight haze since Thursday.
It expects the hazy conditions to continue for the next few days.
Some revellers along Singapore's East Coast Park seemed unaffected.
However, shop owners in the area said prolonged haze would affect their business.
One bike shop said it saw a 10 per cent drop in takings due to the haze.
Simon Tan, a bicycle shop employee, said: "Now it's the school holidays. Everybody will come out to enjoy at East Coast Park. And because of the haze, surely (business has been) affected, at least 10 per cent."
- CNA/xq
Haze is back, set to persist over next few days
Neo Chai Chin Today Online 15 Jun 13;
SINGAPORE — Expect smoggy skies over Singapore and the burning smell to linger in the air over the next few days. Posting an update on the situation after Singapore yesterday experienced its haziest skies since October 2010, the National Environment Agency said the haziness and burning smell were caused by fires on Indonesia’s Sumatra island, brought over by prevailing winds blowing from the southwest or western direction.
The three-hour Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) reading hit 88 between 3pm and 5pm yesterday — the higher end of the moderate range — before it dipped to 82 at 7pm. A PSI reading below 50 is classified as “good”, higher than 50 is “moderate” and anything higher than 100 is “unhealthy”.
Yesterday’s 24-hour PSI reading ranged from 59 to 65 at 4pm, which is within the moderate range. The 24-hour PM2.5 – which measures the concentration of fine particulate matter - ranged from 40 to 49 microgrammes per cubic metre at 4pm. People with heart or lung disease, as well as children and older adults, are advised to reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion when PM2.5 levels are between 41 and 65 microgrammes per cubic metre.
The NEA said yesterday that a “slight haze” had hovered over the Republic since Thursday and southwest monsoon conditions have beset the region since the beginning of this week. Typically lasting from June to September, the southwest monsoon season is the traditional dry season for the southern part of Southeast Asia.
With occasional extended periods of drier weather expected in the region in the coming months, the NEA said increased hotspot activities may be expected in Sumatra and Borneo, with transboundary haze affecting the region during periods of persistent dry weather. It added that 22 hotspots were detected over Sumatra on Thursday, down from 85 detected last Thursday due to the presence of “more cloud cover”.
The last time air quality in Singapore entered the unhealthy range was on October 21, 2010 when the PSI reading hit 106. The issue of transboundary haze came up in April, this year during a meeting between Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Both leaders agreed to the renewal of a pact between Singapore and the provincial government in South Sumatra on sustainable farming practices, with Dr Yudhoyono saying he would encourage the governors of South Sumatra and Jambi to continue working with Singapore over the haze problem.
PSI hits 88 as fires in Sumatra bring haze
Walter Sim Straits Times 15 Jun 13;
THE haze is back - and it could be sticking around for Father's Day tomorrow.
The Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) was in the "moderate" range yesterday because of the forest fires in Sumatra.
The index hit 88 at 3pm, 4pm and 5pm yesterday - the highest levels so far this year. The reading was also the highest since 2010, when air quality breached "unhealthy" levels.
A PSI reading of zero to 50 is "good", while anything above 100 is considered "unhealthy".
The National Environment Agency (NEA) said it will continue to closely monitor the hazy conditions, which are "expected for the next few days".
The 24-hour daily average PSI taken at 4pm yesterday at different parts of the island ranged from 59 to 65.
The reading for another air quality scale called the PM2.5, which measures fine pollutants, was also higher in most parts of Singapore.
These tiny particles are more dangerous than larger specks of dust because they can enter the lungs or bloodstream more easily.
NEA advised those who are considered more vulnerable to curtail any prolonged or heavy exertion. They include people with lung or heart disease, children and the elderly.
The agency attributed the hazy conditions to south-westerly winds that carried smoke from central Sumatra, where forest fires have been raging.
Drier weather conditions have contributed to the problem as well, it said.
According to Meteorological Service Singapore, the number of forest fires spiked last Thursday, reaching 85. But the figure dipped to 46 yesterday, although the full extent could not be determined because of cloudy conditions.
Many Singaporeans yesterday complained about the hazy skies and the acrid burning smell in the air.
Undergraduate Willy Beh, 25, who lives in an apartment on the 40th floor at Teban Gardens, said: "On a normal day, I can see Pulau Bukom and the offshore islands, but today, it is just a blanket of grey."
The public can access PSI updates in various ways:
By visiting the NEA Weather page at weather.nea.gov.sg
Through the Twitter account @ NEAsg
By calling 1800-225-5632
By using the myEnv mobile application on smartphones
Haze returns to Singapore, rise in hotspot activities in Central Sumatra
New Straits Times 15 Jun 13;
SINGAPORE: Hazy conditions returned to Singapore with the three-hour Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) reading standing at 85 at 6 pm today, which is at a moderate range.
According to Singapore's National Environment Agency’s (NEA’s), since 1 pm today, conditions had been hazy and members of the public had given feedback on a burning smell across many parts of Singapore.
In recent days, it said weather conditions in the region had become drier and an increase in hotspot activities had been observed mainly over central Sumatra. -- BERNAMA
Karl Ritter Associated Press Yahoo News 15 Jun 13;
BONN, Germany (AP) — U.N. climate talks have hit a stumbling block that some delegates say poses a serious challenge to their already slow-moving attempt to craft a global response to climate change.
As the latest negotiation session ended Friday in the German city of Bonn, one track of the talks was paralyzed by a request by Russia, Ukraine and Belarus to review the decision-making procedure in the two-decade-long U.N. process.
Decisions in the U.N. climate discussions are supposed to be taken by consensus — but it's not totally clear what that means in practice. While many agree the decision-making procedure needs to be clarified, they worry that the issue could block the talks at a time when urgent action is needed to tackle climate change.
"If we're not careful, it could collapse the whole system," said Ronald Jumeau, a delegate from the Seychelles.
At several climate conferences, after overnight debates with endless interventions, decisions have been gaveled through despite protests from individual countries.
That happened in Cancun, Mexico, in 2010, when Bolivia was overruled. Last year in Qatar, it happened to Russia, when its objections to a package of decisions including an extension of the 1997 emissions treaty known as the Kyoto Protocol were ignored.
Russia was outraged by that snub, and backed by Ukraine and Belarus it used the session in Bonn to call for a discussion on the rules of procedure. It did so in a subsidiary body that was supposed to work on a "loss and damage" mechanism for aid to developing countries hit by climate-related disasters. That work never got started due to disputes over how to address the decision-making issue, which many countries agree needs to be ironed out.
"Our process is very sick. We have constant problems with procedural matters and we are constantly forced to resolve problems in circumstances of haste and apprehension and anxiety," Russian climate envoy Oleg Shamanov told delegates earlier this week.
U.N. climate chief Christiana Figueres said Friday that she found it ironic that even though all governments agreed that the decision-making procedure needs to be discussed, they "couldn't figure out, how do they get to what they want to do?"
That's a familiar story in the climate talks, where procedural disputes have often overshadowed the goal of saving the world from rising seas, more extreme weather events and other potentially catastrophic effects of climate change.
Science shows they're falling short of that aim: emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases are growing. That's mainly because China and other developing countries expand their economies, but rich countries are also criticized at these talks for not cutting their emissions enough.
Negotiators said some progress was made in Bonn on the shape of a global climate deal that is supposed to be adopted in 2015. But many said Russia's concerns over decision-making must be addressed before the next climate conference in Warsaw at the end of the year.
"Time is very short. We can't have this kind of procedural difficulties that are wasting what is a limited and pressurized timeframe to get us to a deal," European Union delegate David Walsh said.
Russia didn't address the closing session, but Belarus said the stalemate in Bonn just highlighted the problems in the process.
A negotiator from Tuvalu, an island nation that fears it's going to be wiped out by rising seas, said it was ironic that the three countries expressing concerns about the procedure were using that procedure "to make it even worse."
"It's like somebody deliberately crashing a car to show that the seat belts don't work," Ian Fry said.
Tia Ghose, LiveScience Yahoo News 15 Jun 13;
The world's population could reach 11 billion by the year 2100, according to a new statistical analysis.
That represents 800 million more people than was forecast in 2011. Most of that increase comes because birth rates in Africa haven't dropped as fast as projected.
"The fertility decline in Africa has slowed down or stalled to a larger extent than we previously predicted, and as a result the African population will go up," said study co-author Adrian Raftery, a statistician at the University of Washington, in a statement.
Ever increasing
The United Nations reported that the population hit 7 billion in October 2011. That's an amazing increase from the mere 5 million people who lived on the planet in 8000 B.C. or the 1 billion who were alive in 1805.
The huge surge in population is expected to cause mega-city populations to swell, which could worsen environmental problems and overcrowding.
Right now, Africa's population stands at 1.1 billion, but that is expected to increase four-fold, to 4.2 billion, by 2100.
Rest unchanged
The rest of the world is unlikely to see big changes from the past estimate. Europe may see a slight dip in population, because it continues to have a below-replacement birth rate, meaning more people are dying than being born.
The new analysis used a more sophisticated method for estimating life expectancy, updated fertility forecasting methods and new population data.
The model predicts that the population will likely reach between 9 billion and 13 billion by 2100. By contrast, the U.N.'s population estimates assume the average birth rate may vary by up to 0.5 children per woman, which results in a large range for the world's population at the end of the century, between 7 billion and 17 billion.
The findings suggest that experts should redouble their efforts to curb population growth in Africa, Raftery said.
"These new findings show that we need to renew policies, such as increasing access to family planning and expanding education for girls, to address rapid population growth in Africa," Raftery said in a statement.
World population to hit 10.9 billion by 2100: UN
AFP 13 Jun 13;
AFP - The world's population will hit 7.2 billion next month and 10.9 billion by 2100, with most of the growth a result of high birthrates in the developing world, the United Nations said Thursday.
The UN's latest "World Population Prospects" report said the number of people inhabiting the planet at the start of the next century could top 16.6 billion, or depending on the statistical model, could be as low as 6.8 billion.
In either case, the population in the world's poorest regions is anticipated to rise dramatically, the UN said.
The number of inhabitants in the world's least developed countries is projected to double, from 898 million inhabitants this year to 1.8 billion in 2050. The number will soar to 2.9 billion by 2100, the UN report said.
"Although population growth has slowed for the world as a whole, this report reminds us that some developing countries, especially in Africa, are still growing rapidly," Wu Hongbo, United Nations Undersecretary General for Economic and Social Affairs, said in a statement.
By contrast, population in the world's developed nations is expected to remain largely unchanged, inching upward from 1.25 billion this year to around 1.28 billion in 2100.
The report said the number of people living in the developed world would decline if not for immigration from poorer countries, which is projected to average about 2.4 million people a year from 2013 to 2050.
Much of the increase in world population between 2013 and 2050 -- when the number is expected to hit 9.6 billion -- is projected to take place in Africa.
The report said that half of all population growth between 2013 and 2100 is expected to be concentrated in just eight countries: Nigeria, India, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, Uganda, Ethiopia and the United States.
The study also highlighted the fast-growing number of seniors -- and not just in rich regions.
In more developed parts of the world, 23 percent of the population is already 60 or older. Their percentage is projected to climb to 32 percent in 2050, and 34 percent in 2100.
Globally, the number of people 60 or older is expected to more than triple by 2100 to hover near 3 billion. The proportion of older citizens in developing countries is forecast to more than double by 2050 and triple to 27 percent by 2100.
Longevity also is on the rise, the United Nations said.
The number of people aged at least 80 is projected to spike almost seven-fold to 830 million by the start of next century, up from 120 million this year and 392 million in 2050.
Sixty-eight percent of those 80 and over are forecast to live in developing countries by 2050.
Even as the population is rising, the UN report said fertility is expected to fall globally, with a major drop projected for least developed countries -- from 4.53 to 2.87 children per woman in 2045-2050 and to 2.11 in 2095-2100.
The rest of the developing world is expected to see a dip to 2.09 from 2.40 in 2045-2050, and 1.93 in 2095-2100.
Most developing countries have had below-replacement fertility -- below 2.1 children per woman -- for several decades. That includes all of Europe except Iceland.
The largest so-called low-fertility countries are China, the United States, Brazil, Russia, Japan and Vietnam.
In other findings, the UN study said that India would surpass China's as the world's most populous country around 2028, when both nations will have about 1.45 billion people.
India will continue to grow for several decades after that to about 1.6 billion and then slowly slip to 1.5 billion in 2100.
China's population is expected to start decreasing after 2030 and could reach 1.1 billion in 2100.
The study also found that Nigerians are expected to outnumber Americans before 2050.
Europe's population, meanwhile, is projected to decline by 14 percent between 2013 and 2100.
Thursday (20th June 2013), 7-10pm: Nature and the Big City by The Leafmonkey Workshop from Lazy Lizard's Tales
Bukit Brown : Our Roots, Our Future
from a.t.Bukit Brown. Heritage. Habitat. History. and The Talks
Video clip of talk on "Singapore’s Underwater Meadows" by Dr. Len McKenzie from teamseagrass
Damselflies in dews!
from Dragonflies & Damselflies of Singapore
Nesting Pressure For Bulbuls
from Bird Ecology Study Group
Random Gallery - Pea Blue
from Butterflies of Singapore
Photographing nature can be challenging but rewarding, and people of all ages are getting into it
Lea Wee Straits Times 14 Jun 13;
They often draw curious stares from strangers as they point their big cameras and long lenses at seemingly nothing on a tree, a flower or a patch of grass.
Their objects of interest - birds, butterflies and insects - may not be obvious to the inexperienced eye. But to nature photographers, these subjects are their passion pursuits, and it is one that more people are getting interested in.
The Nature Photographic Society (Singapore), the oldest such group around, has seen membership grow from a handful in 2000, when it was first set up, to 158 members now.
Its 20-hour nature photography course, held over five Saturdays once a year for about 25 people, has been fully booked since it was introduced for members and the public in 2006. Last year, the society had to do two runs.
Other smaller groups of nature photographers have also sprung up in recent years. ButterflyCircle, a group of about 30, was set up in 2006 by architect Khew Sin Khoon, 54.
Another informal group consists of more than 10 macro photographers who got together around 2009. They shoot mainly spiders and other creatures as small as 1mm.
Then there are the individuals. Some specialise in taking photos of mammals or dragonflies and damselflies, while others focus on intertidal marine life or plants. Each has his own blog to showcase his photos. These groups and individuals not only make photography trips to nature areas here but also overseas.
Mr Dennis Ho, 47, vice-president of Nature Photographic Society (Singapore), said nature photography has become more accessible due to the rise of digital photography and social media.
He said: "In the past, you needed to wait for your film to be developed to find out how a shot went. Now, you take a shot and you can see how it turns out immediately. And when you post it on Facebook, you get feedback on how to improve. You learn very quickly how to take a good photo."
The nature shutterbug appears to have bitten people of both genders and from different age groups and professions.
Jonathan Soong, 14, one of the youngest members of the ButterflyCircle, aims his camera at a butterfly at Gardens by the Bay. -- PHOTO: JOSEPH NAIR FOR THE STRAITS TIMES
For instance, the youngest members of ButterflyCircle are students aged 12 and 14 while the oldest is a retiree and a former fighter pilot, aged 64.
Groups or individuals spend hours in the field studying their pet pursuits, so that they can capture the best shot.
Bird photographers such as Mr Ho usually set off early in the morning to catch their favourite subjects in action in the forest, grassland or garden.
They may park themselves 10 to 20m away from a bird's nest, with their long telephoto lens balanced on top of a tripod, waiting for hours, over a few days or weeks, to capture prized shots such as those of the adult bird feeding its young.
Those who photograph forest mammals such as the lesser mousedeer need even more patience, as these animals are very shy and elusive. They are also becoming less common here, said engineer Chan Kwok Wai, 37, who takes photos of wild animals.
Meanwhile, the challenge for members of ButterflyCircle, who go out every weekend to "chase butterflies" in nature areas, is to find situations when these skittish subjects pause for a few seconds, for instance when feeding on a flower, for them to sneak up and snap a shot.
Those with a passion for dragonflies and damselflies must be prepared to wade through water, as businessman Anthony Quek, 46, did, to get a series of images of two rare damselflies engaged in behaviours such as mating and egg laying.
Shooting even tinier animals such as insects and spiders is backbreaking work for the macro shooters, who may have to contort their bodies to get close to their subjects. But it was all worth it for game studio manager Nicky Bay, 35, whose photo of a ladybird-mimicking spider last year stirred up such interest that it was published on several websites overseas, including that of the Telegraph newspaper in England.
For freelance writer Marcus Ng, 38, joy is visiting seashores when the tide is low to capture photographs of crabs, fish and other intertidal marine life, while for public servant Teo Siyang, 29, happiness is taking photographs of plants.
But it is not just about taking pretty photos. Some photographers have "loftier" aims. Mr Teo for instance, set up a plant identification website, www.uforest.org, last year to provide the public an easy way to identify the plants in Singapore and, in the process, better appreciate them. He has taken photos of 111 plant species and hopes eventually to cover the more than 4,000 plant species here.
Dr Cai Yixiong, 48, president of Nature Photographic Society (Singapore), agreed that photography is a good tool for promoting nature appreciation.
A trained zoologist, he said: "When people see our photos, they often cannot believe that the plant or animal can be found in Singapore. They then start to appreciate what we have."
The photographic society and other groups such as ButterflyCircle also meet regularly at the Biodiversity Roundtable of Singapore, initiated by National Parks Board and other parties last year, to exchange ideas on ways to conserve nature in Singapore.
The ButterflyCircle also helps the board conduct surveys on butterflies. The group's founder, Mr Khew, who is the author of two books on butterflies here, said: "It's a natural progression. After taking photos of beautiful butterflies, you would want to find out more about them through research and to protect them through conservation for future generations to enjoy."
DOS AND DON'TS
Some nature photographers go so close to nesting sites that the adult birds stay away from the nest and their babies' feeding routine gets disrupted. Others remove leaves to get a clearer view of birds and expose them to predators.
These practices are frowned upon by other members of the community. The Nature Photographic Society (Singapore) set up a code of ethics in 2009 for members when they are out in the field. Here is an extract.
Habitat and environment
Do not destroy or damage the environment or habitat where photographic subjects are located.
Stay on existing roads, trails and paths to photograph. Otherwise, keep habitat disturbance to a minimum.
Do not litter in the field. Take nothing but photographs and videos, leave nothing but footprints.
Subject Welfare
Learn the animal's behaviour and know when to back off and not to interfere with its life cycle.
Know your equipment such as the minimum focusing distance. There is no point moving a few centimetres towards a subject when you are using a longer macro lens
Avoid stressing the subject. If it shows stress, move away and use a longer lens.
Do not force a subject into an unnatural environment in order to take a good photo.
Before publicising the presence of a rare subject, evaluate the potential disturbance to it and its environment.
The Nature Society (Singapore) also has a code of ethics for nature lovers and photographers on its website www.nss.org.sg.
Book it
NATURE MACRO PHOTOGRAPHY WORKSHOP BY NICKY BAY
Where: Science Centre Singapore, Movie Studio
When: June 22 and 29, 1 to 6pm
Admission: $95
Info: To register, e-mail aishah2@science.edu.sg Go to sgmacro.blogspot.sg.
Hayat Indriyatno & Diska Putri Pamungkas Jakarta Globe 14 Jun 13;
Environmental activists have responded with alarm to new data showing Indonesia has the third-biggest area of land in the world given over to foreign control since 2000, warning of dire implications to the country’s rainforests, wildlife and indigenous communities.
The Land Matrix Partnership’s Global Observatory, a crowdsourced database launched earlier this week, put the estimated figure of foreign land deals in the country at 2.84 million hectares, mostly for oil palm plantations.
That puts Indonesia behind only South Sudan, at 4.09 million hectares, and Papua New Guinea, at 3.91 million hectares.
The Land Matrix Partnership, an independent land monitoring initiative that includes groups such as the International Land Coalition and the University of Bern’s Center for Development and Environment (CDE), defines a land deal as “an intended, concluded or failed attempt to acquire land through purchase, lease or concession.”
The database focuses only on major land deals of more than 200 hectares that involve the “potential conversion of land from smallholder production, local community use or important ecosystem service provision to commercial use.”
As of Thursday evening, the database, which is updated constantly, showed that there were 85 transnational deals for Indonesian land, coming from places as far afield as the United States and Belgium, to Sri Lanka and South Korea. However, Malaysian companies were the biggest investors, responsible for 32 deals covering a combined 1.27 million hectares, or nearly half the total area.
The biggest identified land contract was for 300,000 hectares for the Malaysian conglomerate Genting to develop oil palm plantations in Papua. The Global Observatory noted that the deal was concluded by 2011 but operations had not yet begun.
The next biggest contract was for 299,262 hectares in Sumatra, also for oil palms and also for a Malaysian company, Sime Darby. The plantations are already in operation, according to the database.
Oil palm plantations dominated the amount of foreign land investment, accounting for 2.45 million hectares, or 86 percent of the total area.
Aditya Bayunanda, the global forest and trade network national coordinator for WWF Indonesia, said the figures put into perspective the amount of forest being cleared for commercial plantations and helped explain why Indonesia was a major carbon dioxide emitter.
“There are more negative implications than positive ones for the environment as a result of foreign or domestic companies using Indonesia’s land for oil palm plantations,” he told the Jakarta Globe.
He added that besides the obvious loss of valuable forest habitats and the biodiversity they supported, there was also an impact on local communities, many of whom were currently in conflict with the new concession holders over areas that they had long considered ancestral lands.
“There’s a huge gap between land ownership by local people and by foreign companies. As a result of this gap, we get land disputes as well as social discrepancies between locals who work for the foreigners and those who don’t,” Aditya said.
He warned that such disputes, if conflated with existing social and economic grievances, could prove extremely dangerous, especially in Papua, which for decades has been the scene of an armed insurgency and is now becoming a prime target for plantation and logging firms looking beyond the fast-diminishing forests of Sumatra and Kalimantan.
Aditya said that a positive development on this front was a recent Constitutional Court ruling on indigenous community management of forests.
The court ruled in May that indigenous people had the right to manage forests where they lived, which Aditya said was important in preventing foreign or domestic developers from clearing the land for commercial use.
However, observers say the complex matter of how to define indigenous land could give rise to even more problems.
Aditya also noted that the amount of oil palm plantations being developed would severely hamper the government’s bid to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 26 percent by 2020.
A recently extended moratorium on issuing new forest-clearing permits for primary and peat forests will be of little help in reversing the deforestation trend, he argued, given that most of the land deals identified in the new database predated the moratorium that first went into force in May 2011.
“The moratorium is more about preventive action than about fixing the problem. The government doesn’t appear to be making any real steps to fix the deforestation problem, and its policies only tend to be stop-gap measures to stop the problem from getting bigger,” Aditya said.
Dedi Ratih, the forest program campaigner at the Indonesian Forum for the Environment (Walhi), agreed that national policies to tackle carbon emissions were inadequate in light of the amount of forests being cleared.
“The government’s decision to extend the forest-clearing moratorium is simply not enough to mitigate the negative impact of the huge amount of land being allocated for oil palm plantations, or to support the government’s campaign to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” he said.
Aditya urged the government to learn how to more efficiently allocate land for commercial use, by looking at other countries as examples.
“Malaysia has very strict rules for land usage. They have regulations stipulating how much land may be used for oil exploration, for forestry and so on,” he said.
“So it figures that most of the foreign companies that manage land for oil palm plantations here come from Malaysia.”
The Global Observatory listed Malaysia as the No. 2 country for the amount of foreign land investments made since 2000, behind only the United States.
Antara 14 Jun 13;
Musi Rawas, South Sumatra (ANTARA News) - Illegal logging is growing rampant damaging the Krinci Seblat National Park in the regency of Musi Rawas of South Sumatra , local people said.
High quality trees are cut everyday transported with dump trucks to a sawmill in that area, a Kota Tanjung villager, Damari, said on Friday.
Damari said he and other villagers are paid to cut the trees, but he did not say who paid them.
"We are only paid just enough for food. We have to accept the offer even if we know it is against the law. Otherwise we would not be able to support our families and repay debts," he said.
He said illegal logging had continued for a long time with no intervention from the law in the interior area 170 kilometers from Lubuklinggau.
Trucks loaded with tree logs are free through the forest away from the public roads to the sawmill, he said.
M Daud , head of the Ulu Rawas sub-district, was not available for comment , but local people said hundreds of cubic meters of logs were taken away by trucks from the forest everyday to a timber processing plant at Rawas Ulu near the Sumatra highway.
Most of the forests in the sub-district of Ulu Rawas in the regency of Musi Rawas are part of the Krinci Seblat National Park, which is protected by law.(*)
Editor: Heru
Alister Doyle PlanetArk 13 Jun 13;
Many species of birds, amphibians and corals not currently under threat will be at risk from climate change and have been wrongly omitted from conservation planning, an international study said on Wednesday.
The Amazon rainforest was among the places where ever more types of birds and amphibians would be threatened as temperatures climbed, it said. Common corals off Indonesia would also be among the most vulnerable.
Overall, up to 41 percent of all bird species, 29 percent of amphibians and 22 percent of corals were "highly climate change vulnerable but are not currently threatened", the team of scientists wrote in the journal PLOS ONE.
"It was a surprise," said Wendy Foden, of the global species program of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) who led the study. Experts had expected far more overlap between species threatened now and those vulnerable to global warming.
Conservation priorities should be revised to take account of the emerging climate risks, for instance to decide where to locate protected areas for wildlife, the scientists wrote.
"Climate change is not the biggest threat, yet," Foden told Reuters in a telephone interview. Loss of habitats driven by a rising human population, over-exploitation and invasive species are now the main causes of extinctions, the study said.
The study drew on the work of more than 100 scientists. The IUCN groups governments, scientists and environmental groups.
EMPEROR PENGUIN
Birds including the Emperor Penguin and the Little Owl and amphibians such as Rose's rain frog or the Imitator Salamander - none of which are now threatened - were among those at risk as temperatures rose.
The study focused on birds, amphibians - which include frogs, newts and salamanders - and corals partly because the IUCN has recently published global assessments of each.
The scientists used a new scale to judge the vulnerability to climate change, based on each creature's likely exposure to climate change, sensitivity to change and the ability to adapt.
Chris Thomas, a professor of biology at York University in England who was not involved in the study, welcomed the attempt to map climate risks, but said there were many uncertainties.
"The tragedy of this is that we need to make a lot of decisions about conservation ... before we know what will happen," he said.
A U.N. panel of scientists has estimated that 20 to 30 percent of the world's species are likely to be at increasing risk of extinction if temperatures rise more than two or three degrees Celsius (3.6-5.4F) above pre-industrial levels.
Almost 200 nations have set a goal of limiting warming to below 2C, a target set to be breached on current trends of rising greenhouse gases.
(Reporting By Alister Doyle; editing by Mike Collett-White)
David Gray PlanetArk 14 Jun 13;
The ocean laps against a protective seawall outside the maternity ward at Kiribati's Nawerewere Hospital, marshalling itself for another assault with the next king tide.
Inside, a basic clinic is crowded with young mothers and newborn babies, the latest additions to a population boom that has risen as relentlessly as the sea in a deeply Christian outpost where family planning is still viewed with skepticism.
It is a boom that threatens to overwhelm the tiny atoll of South Tarawa as quickly as the rising seas. Some 50,000 people, about half of Kiribati's total population, are already crammed onto a sand and coral strip measuring 16 sq km (6 sq miles).
"Climate change is a definite long-term threat to Kiribati, there's no doubt whatsoever about that," says Simon Donner, a climate scientist at the University of British Columbia who has been visiting South Tarawa since 2005.
"But that doesn't mean it's the biggest problem right now ... Any first-time visitor to Tarawa is not struck by the impacts of sea level rise, they're struck by how crowded it is."
Low-lying South Pacific island nations such as Kiribati (pronounced Kee-ree-bahs) and Tuvalu, about halfway between northeast Australia and Hawaii, have long been the cause célèbre for climate change and rising sea levels.
Straddling the equator and spread over 3.5 million sq km (2 million sq miles) of otherwise empty ocean, Kiribati's 32 atolls and one raised coral island have an average height above sea level of just two meters (6-1/2 feet).
Studies show surrounding sea levels rising at about 2.9 mm a year, well above the global average of 1 - 2 mm a year.
Kiribati President Anote Tong has grimly predicted his country will likely become uninhabitable in 30-60 years because of inundation and contamination of its fresh water supplies.
OVERCROWDING "A MENACE"
While climate change poses a serious longer-term threat, many people, including Tong, recognize that breakneck population growth is a more immediate problem. South Tarawa' population density of more than 3,000 per sq km is comparable to Los Angeles or parts of London - without the high rises.
The government fears South Tarawa's population could double to more than 100,000 by 2030 unless the birth rate and internal migration slows.
Rudimentary huts of little more than timber sleeping platforms and palm thatch roofs line a single dusty road running the length of the atoll. Dotted among them are pig pens, chicken coops, overcrowded grave sites and the blasted relics from one of the bloodiest battles of World War Two.
Bwabwa Oten, Kiribati's director of hospital services, says current annual population growth in Kiribati is close to 6 percent, with overcrowding a major contributor to disease and an infant mortality rate among the highest in the region.
The church plays an integral role in the South Pacific and efforts to limit birth rates have run into resistance. Large families are also traditional in the region, which has one of the world's highest rates of teen pregnancy.
Describing the population surge as "a menace", Tong has called on churches to help curb growth by allowing their members to use birth control.
"Religion is incredibly powerful in the Pacific and there is quite an overt suspicion that, when we are talking about family planning, it in fact means family stopping," said Bronwyn Hale of New Zealand-based Family Planning International, which is working to promote sexual and reproductive health in Kiribati.
Progress is being made, with clinic visitor numbers up and a growing acceptance of the threat of over-population.
"Right now, population is the major issue, the number one issue we should face," said Peter Itibita, a member of the Mormon Church in South Tarawa.
Many health problems also stem from a lack of clean water as rising salinity and pollution affect underground water, with diarrhea outbreaks caused by contamination from human and animal waste and other pollutants.
Nawerewere Hospital also has problems, with new mothers spilling from overcrowded wards onto verandas and into corridors.
"Sometimes with the new babies, we don't have the water to wash them," says Rina Tabi, a maternity ward nurse.
Plans are underway for solar-powered energy and desalination plants but the cost of building and maintaining them is a challenge for cash-strapped Kiribati, which relies on aid and royalties from foreign fishing fleets.
COPING MECHANISMS "OVERWHELMED"
The complexities of sea level change are becoming more apparent and there is little doubt that nations like Kiribati will be among the most affected. But it is equally clear that vulnerable states like Kiribati are responsible for less than 0.1 percent of global emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels.
According to the United Nations, population growth in the Pacific has consistently exceeded all other regions except Africa for the past 30 years and is likely to remain higher than the global average for the next 40-50 years, even though barely 10 million people are dotted across the world's biggest ocean.
There is also a history of concern about Pacific over-crowding, with dire predictions of population growth outstripping food production dating back to the 1960s.
Barry Coates, executive director of Oxfam New Zealand, said populations of fragile atolls had long-developed resilience in dealing with resource shortages, cyclones and other periodic climatic events.
"But what is happening now is that the pressures of population growth and climate change are overwhelming the traditional coping mechanisms," Coates said.
The Kiribati government has also been looking at radical options for feeding and housing its people, including negotiating to buy land on nearby Fiji.
Larger Pacific neighbors New Zealand and Australia are likely to play a big role if large-scale migration is needed, and Western governments are under pressure to create a new refugee category for those fleeing the effects of climate change. A test case from Kiribati was rejected in New Zealand in 2012 and changes to international law will likely be needed.
(Additional reporting and writing by Lincoln Feast in SYDNEY; Editing by Paul Tait)
Posts
visitors since Nov 07