Extreme El Niños Could Hit Twice As Often

Becky Oskin LiveScience.com Yahoo News 20 Jan 14;

The most intense El Niño events may soon hit every 10 years, instead of every 20 years, thanks to warming water in the eastern Pacific Ocean, a new study predicts.

An El Niño is the warm phase of a long-standing natural climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean. When changing wind patterns start piling up warm water in the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific, the redistribution of hotter water triggers changes in atmospheric circulation that influences rainfall and storm patterns around the world — an El Niño.

During extreme El Niños, sea surface temperatures warmer than 82 degrees Fahrenheit (28 degrees Celsius) develop in the normally cold and dry eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Because this part of the Pacific is typically colder than the western Pacific, even 0.8 degrees Celsius (about 1 degree Fahrenheit) of warming in these waters has an outsize effect, said lead study author Wenju Cai.

"Under global warming, the barrier to convection shifts," Cai told LiveScience. "Therefore, it is easier to generate this massive atmospheric circulation associated with an extreme El Niño event." (Convection is the process that fuels storms.)

During extreme El Niños, this warm-water zone stretches across the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean. Because the Pacific's sea surface temperatures are rising, climate researchers have tried to predict the impact of global warming on extreme El Niños, but their models have produced conflicting results, said Cai, a climate scientist at CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, a government research organization in Aspendale, Australia. [Infographic: Earth's Atmosphere Top to Bottom]

"If we just look at sea surface temperatures, there has been no consensus," Cai said.

To better gauge the effect of future warming on the El Niño cycle, Cai and an international group of climate scientists redefined an extreme El Niño. Their study tested 20 climate models that simulated extreme El Niños, but instead of looking at sea surface temperatures, they defined each episode as an increase in rainfall by a factor of 10 over the eastern equatorial Pacific. The results show an increase from an extreme event every 20 years to an episode every 10 years from the present day through the next 100 years. The findings were published today (Jan. 19) in the journal Nature Climate Change.

While the increased frequency could be a boon for the drought-stricken western United States, which would receive extra rainfall, an extreme El Niño has devastating global effects.

During past extreme El Niño events, countries in the western Pacific, such as Australia and Indonesia, experienced devastating droughts and wildfires, while catastrophic floods occurred in the eastern equatorial region of Ecuador and northern Peru. The last extreme El Niño, in 1997-1998, caused $35 billion in damage in the United States and killed an estimated 23,000 people worldwide.

"Extreme El Niños cause a lot of loss of life and productivity," Cai said.

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Best of our wild blogs: 19 Jan 14

Life History of the Chocolate Demon
from Butterflies of Singapore

A Quick Morning Walk At Venus Drive (18 Jan 2014)
from Beetles@SG BLOG

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Sinabung volcanic ash has low likelihood of affecting Singapore: NEA

Channel NewsAsia 18 Jan 14;

SINGAPORE: The National Environment Agency (NEA) said the likelihood of volcanic ash from Mount Sinabung in North Sumatra affecting Singapore is low.

NEA added the 24-hour Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) is expected to remain in the ‘Good’ band.

Mount Sinabung has been in a state of intermittent volcanic activity since 15 September 2013.

NEA said to date, Singapore has not been affected by the volcanic ash from this volcanic activity.

The Meteorological Services Singapore (MSS) has been closely monitoring the situation as volcanic activity has intensified in recent days.

Based on dispersion model simulations by MSS and the Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre, volcanic ash is expected to move south but will be confined within the northern half of Sumatra over the next one to two days.

NEA said under current conditions, there may be a slight deterioration in air quality should some volcanic ash reach Singapore.

It added the amount of ash that may reach Singapore is likely to be small and the duration relatively short, posing little to no health risk to the public.

MSS will continue to monitor the situation and will provide updates on developments.

- CNA/ec

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Malaysia: Massive floods due to climate change -- Prime Minister

The Star 19 Jan 14;

PEKAN: The massive floods in the east coast early last month was due to climate change and should not be blamed on anyone, said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.

He said the phenomenon was caused by centuries of unchecked development which had severely affected the environment.

“It afflicts every country in the world. In New York, the Arctic storm has caused the temperature to drop to -52°C.

”The cold left 21 people dead and the terrible condition has impacted the economy of the world’s superpower. We cannot blame anyone for this because this is the effects of our development,” Najib said at an aid presentation for flood victims and volunteer appreciation ceremony here yesterday.

He said the unusual rainfall of 777mm in Jabor, Terengganu on Dec 2 was more than double the amount of a month’s rain.

”The only thing we can do is to make careful preparations to reduce the impact of the floods,” said Najib, adding that the Cabinet had received proposals from the Flood Disaster Committee, headed by Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, to improve the flood management standard operating procedure to be more efficient.

He said among the upgrades suggested was for the Meteorological Department and the Irrigation and Drainage Department (JPS) to utilise the latest technology in improving its early warning systems.

”We have also asked JPS to prepare flood mitigation plans. However, the cost is very high and the Government has to consider the affordability first before making any decisions,” he said.

Najib said the flood mitigation measures put forward by Terengganu Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Ahmad Said costs RM480mil while the plan to insulate the entire Sungai Isap in Kuantan would come up to RM700mil.

Besides that, the Government had to purchase boats, heavier trucks and other assets, he said.

On the flood assistance programme, Najib said up to 1,504 affected families in Pekan would receive RM750 in cash aid, a mattress, pillows, a kitchen stove, refrigerator, television set and rice cooker each.

Govt to boost anti-flood measures
New Straits Times 19 Jan 14;

PEKAN: Climate change and unpredictable weather patterns have prompted the government to further improve the country's flood warning system and mitigation plans to help reduce the impact of natural disasters in future.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak said the cabinet had accepted the recommendations made by the Natural Disaster Management Committee which, among others, proposed that the Meteorological Department and the Drainage and Irrigation Department use the latest technology for better weather forecasting and public announcements.

At the same time, he said the government would also consider the flood mitigation plans for areas affected by floods, which would involve huge allocations.

"Flood mitigation projects are costly and we need to look at our financial ability before we can approve them," he said at a function to distribute aid to flood victims in Pekan yesterday. He also presented certificates to volunteers.

Najib said the Terengganu state government had requested RM480 million for flood mitigation projects for the state, while Kuantan would require RM700 million to help resolve its flood problems.

He said the government would first procure more assets that could be used during natural disasters, including boats and larger trucks.

"We are also reviewing our standard operating procedures (SOP) to provide a more efficient machinery to assist victims when a natural disaster strikes."

Najib said climate change had also affected developed countries, including the United States, where the temperature in certain areas plummeted to negative 52 degrees Celcius recently due to an Arctic blast.

He said it was not right to blame anyone for the recent floods in the east coast and urged all parties to find ways to reduce the impact of the floods and to assist the victims.

Citing Pekan as an example, Najib, who is also its member of parliament, said the district was often flooded when high volume of water upstream of Sungai Pahang met the high tide.

"But now the floods are caused by heavy downpours, as seen on Dec 2," he said, adding the Kemaman district recorded an extraordinary amount of rainfall on the same day, which was higher than the whole month in previous years.

Najib said Barisan Nasional leaders would find ways to increase aid to flood victims, as the RM500 cash assistance for each family affected by floods was no longer sufficient.
"The BN government will always be with the people through thick and thin. I will ensure victims get more this time around."

A total of 1,504 families received RM750 cash assistance each with RM500 contributed by the Federal Government and RM250 from the state.

Each family also received various items, including a mattress and two pillows from Kelab Putera 1Malaysia, an LED television set from the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission, a refrigerator from the Pekan Umno division and a rice cooker, which was Najib's personal contribution.

Recipient Fatimah Ismail, 46, said the assistance given by the government proved that its leaders understood the difficulties faced by the people.

"We should be grateful, as our government provides us various types of assistance."

"If we look at other countries, their people were left struggling to rebuild their lives after natural disasters."

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Malaysia: Sun bear centre opens to public

Avila Geraldine New Straits Times 19 Jan 14;

RAISING AWARENESS: It's the world's only NGO-run facility

SANDAKAN: After six years of toying with the idea, the Bornean Sun Bear Conservation Centre (BSBCC) is now accessible to the public who want to get close to the world's smallest bear.
The opening of the centre is expected to raise awareness and encourage research on the endangered species.

It is learnt that the conservation centre, housing 28 sun bears is the only facility of its kind in the world run by a non-governmental organisation.

It was set up in 2008 through the collaboration of the Sabah Forestry Department, Sabah Wildlife Department and Land Empowerment Animals People (LEAP).

Located next to the world renowned Sepilok Orang Utan Rehabilitation Centre, its key facilities include an observation platform, boardwalk and a visitors' centre.

However, the two houses, which provide a natural habitat for the sun bears, are not accessible to visitors.

BSBCC founder Wong Siew Te said in its effort to raise awareness, the centre had moved forward to let the people get a better view and understanding of sun bears.

"Now, we can educate the public on the importance of sun bears and the forest.

"Research and rehabilitation will come next as this is a long-term project, and here to stay."
Sun bears are classified as a totally protected species under the Sabah Wildlife Conservation Enactment 1997, providing it the same status as the orang-utan and Sumatran rhinoceros.
Found throughout mainland Asia, Sumatra in Indonesia and Borneo, the exact number of sun bears in the wild is unknown.

This makes it even more pressing to reduce pressure on a species classified as "vulnerable" on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List and at risk of becoming endangered.
Habitat loss and poaching for its parts for use in traditional medicine are among key threats that have led to a decline of by at least 30 per cent of its population in the last three decades.

Other threats include illegal capture for the pet trade and killed when wrongly perceived as pests.

Sabah Wildlife Department director Datuk Dr Laurentius Ambu said the department would endeavour to increase enforcement efforts in clamping down on those who keep the species as pets or trade its parts.

He stressed that no licence had been issued for anyone to own sun bears, except to the BSBCC and the Lok Kawi Wildlife Park.

"Our department will also work tirelessly to ensure that sun bears can be released back into the wild, subject to their adaptation to the habitat.

"It is also our hope that this centre will facilitate research on sun bears and conduct outreach programmes to raise awareness on the dangers of keeping this species in captivity."

The centre is open daily from 9am to 3.30pm. Fees are RM5 for Malaysians above 17 and RM2 for citizens between 12 and 17.

The fee for foreigners is RM30 (above 17) and RM15 (between 12 to 17 years). Admission is free for children under 12.

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Malaysia: Johor - an ecotourism paradise

Mohd Farhaan Shah The Star 19 Jan 14;

JOHOR BARU: Johor’s rich flora and fauna will be promoted to both local and foreign tourists during Visit Malaysia Year 2014.

Tourism Ministry state director Mohammad Isa Abdul Halim said many tourists are attracted to Johor due to its attractive ecotourism packages.

He added that Johor has six national parks that are easily accessible and located along the state’s east and west coasts.

“Besides that, we also have many beautiful islands in our waters, with white sandy beaches and crystal clear blue waters.

“Our attractive ecotourism packages have attracted tourists from European countries, Japan and Singapore,” he said, before joining more than 600 riders at the Tanjung Piai National Park yesterday.

Mohammad Isa said Johor aims to get more than four million visitors to the state during VMY 2014. This is compared to three million visitors last year.

He said the ministry was working closely with stakeholders and industry players to make Johor a top tourist destination.

“We have the ingredients to make the state attractive to all tourists, no matter what they prefer,” he said.

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Malaysia not deterring ivory smugglers

Isabelle Lai The Star 19 Jan 14;

PETALING JAYA: Despite nine high-profile ivory seizures worth millions of ringgit since 2011, Malaysian authorities have yet to make any significant arrests that will help stamp out our reputation as a transit country for the illegal ivory trade.

According to Dr Chris Shepherd, regional director of wildlife trade monitoring network Traffic South-East Asia, intelligence-led investigations to break down the wildlife crime networks here are still not seen as a priority nor carried out to their fullest extent.

He pointed out that smugglers would not invest so much money in moving tonnes of ivory through Malaysia if they thought it was too risky.

“It’s like electricity. Smugglers look for the path of least resistance. If they think they are going to get away with it here, then they will do it here,” he told The Star.

Merely seizing shipments and arresting carriers or mules of the trade, he said, were not enough to deter smugglers from using Malaysia as a transit point.

“It’s just going to make the dealers lose some money, but that’s about it. Elephants are still going to be killed unless trade chains are broken and kingpins put behind bars,” he said.

One of the biggest concerns, he said, was that large volumes of ivory had slipped through Malaysia undetected on numerous occasions.

According to statistics from the Elephant Trade Information System (Etis), a database used to analyse global ivory trade patterns and seizures, 31 seizures involved Malaysia since 2011, with nine seizures here and 22 seizures elsewhere.

At least four of the cases listed Malaysia as an “importer” country, while the rest, which included Malaysia as a transit point, were destined for other countries in South-East and East Asia.

Shepherd acknowledged the hugely challenging task facing the Royal Malaysian Customs Department, given that millions of containers transit through Port Klang a year.

“It’s impossible to check all cargo. That is why working with source and importing countries is so important.

“Such collaboration would assist Customs and other Malaysian enforcement agencies in becoming a much more efficient force against the trade, acquiring more useful information, increasing interceptions and arrests, and ultimately reducing the flow of illegal ivory,” he said, stressing that it all came down to improved multi-agency cooperation and intelligence-led investigations.

For example, he said that Etis has now shown the country of Togo to be a prominent link to Malaysia for ivory smuggling, and has shown that over the past five years, many shipments were disguised as wood or wood chips.

“So, let’s increase our surveillance of wood chips coming in from Togo en route to Hong Kong,” he suggested, adding that the Etis database shows which countries have been sending ivory through Malaysia.

However, Dr Shepherd commended Customs for their initiative in fighting against illegal ivory smuggling, including working with Traffic South-East Asia to train its officers.

“We hope to see wildlife crime continue to become a higher priority for Customs, the judiciary, police and Department of Wildlife and National Parks. The highest levels of Government must recognise this as a serious issue,” he said, adding that this must in turn lead to increased levels of successful enforcement at ports, airports and borders.

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Best of our wild blogs: 18 Jan 14

Toddycats recce the Petai trail
from Otterman speaks

Butterflies of Pulau Ubin Part 1
from Beauty of Fauna and Flora in Nature

Night Walk on the Wilder Side of Yio Chu Kang Road (17 Jan 2014) from Beetles@SG BLOG

Chek Jawa featured in The Epoch Times
from wild shores of singapore

Difficulties of a release program and what can be learnt
from sundapangolin

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ASEAN slow in adopting haze monitoring system: Shanmugam

May Wong Today Online 18 Jan 14;

BAGAN — Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have been slow in adopting the haze monitoring system, said Foreign Affairs Minister K Shanmugam after attending the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat in Bagan, Myanmar, yesterday.

While ASEAN leaders had agreed to adopt a transboundary haze monitoring system at the last ASEAN Summit in Brunei, there has been limited progress since. “There has been some degree of, I won’t say resistance, but a lack of movement. And we expressed our hope that it can change, and a degree of disappointment that it hasn’t happened a bit faster,” said Mr Shanmugam.

Without giving details, Mr Shanmugam pointed out that if ASEAN continues to do nothing, individual countries would be forced to take unilateral steps to handle the matter within the confines of international law.

The haze monitoring system was developed by Singapore and aims to identify responsible parties and the causes of regional haze. It was developed after Singapore and other countries in the region were hit by a severe haze last year, which caused Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) levels to peak at a record of 400 here in June.

On ASEAN’s aim to achieve an economic community by the end of next year, Mr Shanmugam said the group has accomplished 80 per cent of its targets, but that achieving the remaining 20 per cent will not be easy.

He also commended Myanmar for hosting a successful Foreign Ministers’ Meeting as part of its first stint as ASEAN chair. “The fact that the country, which has been subject to so many sanctions, is now the chair of ASEAN shows how fully the integration has taken place,” he said.

The Foreign Ministers’ Meeting marks the official start to a series of ASEAN meetings this year, leading up to the Regional Leaders’ Summit later in the year.

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Malaysia: Invasion of alien predator fish

Sim Bak Heng New Straits Times 18 Jan 14;

RIVER THREAT: Unscrupulous importers to blame

JOHOR BARU: ALIEN predator fish are multiplying at such a rapid rate in Malaysian waterways that many indigenous river species have ended up as their meal.

The presence of the predator species, such as the Peacock Bass, Alligator Pike, Arapaima, Amazon Catfish, Armoured Catfish and Tiger Fish, as well as crustacean species, such as the Red Claw Crayfish and Blue Claw Crayfish, are wiping out many river species.

Environmentalists are blaming unscrupulous ornamental fish importers for illegally bringing in the predator species in the form of fish fry. The predator fish, especially the Arapaima and Alligator Pike, are attractive to enthusiasts and sold before they have matured.

Malaysia Nature Society (Johor chapter) chairman Vincent Chow said the problem would start when the predator fish matured and developed a big appetite, which many enthusiasts could not afford to meet.

"When aquarium operators and enthusiasts find it hard to maintain the fish, which can grow up to 2m long, they release the fish into rivers or ponds, where they breed rapidly. This is when the buffet-style feasting begins."

Chow said most rivers in the state that flowed through urban areas, including Sungai Skudai, Sungai Mengkibol and Sungai Kahang, were contaminated with predator fish and crustaceans.

"The Armoured Catfish, Tilapia, Red Claw Crayfish and Blue Claw Crayfish are the major predator species found in the rivers. These species are becoming the dominant ones, upsetting the food chain and ecosystem."

He cited the example of the Snakehead species, which was introduced in Florida, the United States, years ago. The fish multiplied so rapidly that the species became unmanageable, with reports of even humans having been attacked by them.

Some species also dig tunnels in riverbanks to lay eggs, causing some stretches to collapse.
Chow said the Armoured Catfish and the two crustacean species were the main culprits in destabilising riverbanks.

He called on the Fisheries Department to enforce the law in dealing with those found to be importing, selling and keeping alien predator fish.

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Malaysia: 5 hours to move male elephant

New Straits Times 17 Jan 14;

TO THE RESCUE: Officers use female elephants to tame wild animal caught in Kampung Keruak forest

HULU BESUT: THE Terengganu Department of Wildlife and National Parks (Perhilitan), aided by the National Elephant Conservation Centres (UKGK) in Kuala Gandah, Pahang, and Sungai Ketiar, Hulu Terengganu, took five hours to tame and transfer a wild male elephant caught in the Kampung Keruak forest here last Thursday.

Two female elephants from UKGK Kuala Gandah were used to help the team, comprising 10 Perhilitan officers and nine UKGK members.

The three-tonne elephant, caught last Thursday, was believed to have rampaged oil palms belonging to local residents. Four or five other elephants escaped into the jungle.

Terengganu Perhilitan director Yusoff Sharif said the operation took a long time because the wild elephant had to be tied up and pulled for about 1km before being transported out in a lorry.

"A passage had to be made in the jungle to facilitate the transfer of the elephant."
He said it was the second such operation this year. However, he said, it was the first involving an elephant in Hulu Terengganu.

Yusoff said the elephants that escaped had been spotted in Manik Urai forest, Kelantan. Bernama

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Malaysia: Malacca forest reserve encroached upon

Allison Lai The Star 18 Jan 14;

MALACCA: A state forest reserve in Bukit Senggeh, Selandar near here, has been encroached upon for organised rubber cultivation.

The 10ha forest reserve, about 30km from the city centre, has been planted with rows of rubber trees, believed to be aged between four and six years old.

Naturally, some of the existing trees from the reserve had been cut to make way for the plantation, with tree stumps still visible on the ground.

Chief Minister Datuk Seri Idris Haron, who was rather bemused by the finding, said the activities were believed to have been going on for five to six years.

“How could it have happened throughout the years? I am eager to know who is behind all this,” he said on Wednesday evening after chairing the weekly state executive councillor meeting at Seri Negeri in Ayer Keroh.

Idris said the issue came to his attention when villagers at the area were curious about the plantation that just appeared in the middle of the forest, and alerted authorities.

Initially, the villagers thought it was on private land, he said, adding that the state Forestry Department was also not aware of the matter.

“However, only when the trees had grown tall and people started asking questions was it learnt that the land belongs to state forest reserve,” said Idris, adding that some village folks claimed it was the orang asli who had cultivated the illegal plantation, with even some orang asli claiming the trees as theirs.

“Anyway, I see that it was not the work of the orang asli after some checks. The plantation is also very well organised, much better than my old folks’ farm.

“I suspect that some organised quarter is behind this,’’ he said.

Asked what the state government’s next course of action will be, Idris replied that it would be a waste to bring down the trees.

“We have suggested at the exco meeting that the state government lease the area to those interested to tap the rubber trees. We are considering an open tender for this,” he said.

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