NOAA: World in 2013 was fourth hottest on record

Seth Borenstein Associated Press Yahoo News 21 Jan 14;

WASHINGTON (AP) — The sweltering year of 1988 first put global warming in the headlines and ended up as the hottest year on record. But on Tuesday, it was pushed out of the top 20 warmest by 2013.

Last year tied for the fourth hottest and 1988 fell to 21st.

The average world temperature was 58.12 degrees (14.52 Celsius) tying with 2003 for the fourth warmest since 1880, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Tuesday.

At the same time, NASA, which calculates records in a different manner, ranked last year as the seventh warmest on record, with an average temperature of 58.3 degrees (14.6 Celsius). The difference is related to how the two agencies calculate temperatures in the Arctic and other remote places and is based on differences that are in the hundredths of a degree, scientists said.

Both agencies said nine of the 10th warmest years on record have happened in the 21st century. The hottest year was 2010, according to NOAA.

The reports were released as a big snowstorm was hitting the U.S. East Coast.

"There are times such as today when we can have snow even in a globally warmed world," said Gavin Schmidt, deputy director of NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies in New York. "But the long term trends are not going to disappear ... Quite frankly people have a very short memory when it comes to climate and weather."

Those longer trends show the world has seen "fairly dramatic warming" since the 1960s with "a smaller rate of warming over the last decade or so," said Thomas Karl, director of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. In the past 50 years, the world annual temperature has increased by nearly 1.4 degrees (0.8 degrees Celsius), according to NOAA data.

Unlike 2012, much of the worst heat and biggest climate disasters last year were outside the U.S. Parts of central Asia, central Africa and Australia were record warm. Only a few places, including the central U.S., were cooler than normal last year.

Temperatures that were only the 37th warmest for the nation last year. That followed the warmest year on record for the U.S.

View galleryFILE - In this Dec. 25, 2013 file photo, children line …
FILE - In this Dec. 25, 2013 file photo, children line up to receive a Christmas gift from volunteer …
Last year, the world had 41 billion-dollar weather disasters, the second highest number behind only 2010, according to insurance firm Aon Benfield, which tracks global disasters. Since 2000, the world has averaged 28 such billion dollar disasters, which are adjusted for inflation.

Nearly half of last year's biggest weather disasters were in Asia and the Pacific region, including Typhoon Haiyan, which killed at least 6,100 people and caused $13 billion in damage to the Philippines and Vietnam. Other costly weather disasters included $22 billion from central European flooding in June, $10 billion in damage from Typhoon Fitow in China and Japan, and a $10 billion drought in much of China, according to the insurance firm.

Usually the weather event called El Nino, a warming of the central Pacific, is responsible for boosting already warm years into the world's hottest years. But in 2013, there was no El Nino.

The fact that a year with no El Nino "was so hot tells me that the climate really is shifting," said Andrew Dessler, a Texas A&M University climate scientist, who was not part of either the NOAA or NASA teams.

___

Online:

NOAA climate report: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/13

NASA climate report: http://1.usa.gov/1kUFqhj

Aon Benfield climate disasters report: http://bit.ly/KCwbS4

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Johor-Riau link on the cards

The Star 21 Jan 14;

JOHOR BARU: Plans are in the pipeline to connect Riau in Sumatra, Indonesia, to Kukup in Pontian, Johor, via a 17.5km undersea tunnel linking the two countries.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) and Pelalawan Regency in Riau Province are currently undertaking the feasibility study on the multibillion ringgit link project.

To be known as the Johor-Riau Link, the undersea tunnel would link Karimum Island in Riau to Kukup, Pontian, near the existing ferry terminal in the Pontian district.

“The project is more cost-effective and viable at a cost of about RM15bil compared with the Dumai-Malacca bridge estimated to be RM44.3bil,’’ said UTM Construction Research Alliance dean Prof Dr Muhd Zaimi Abd Majid to reporters yesterday at the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the university and Pelalawan Regency represented by its head of district Muhammad Harris.

Dr Muhd Zaimi said the project had received initial funding from two parties.

He said the preliminary feasibility study showed that the link would create higher economic impact between Riau and Johor, lower risk and lower disturbing effect compared to the development of the Dumai-Malacca and Batam-Singapore bridges.

“It will not cause disturbances to commercial vessels using the Straits of Malacca during construction activities as no structures will be built above seawater,’’ said Dr Muhd Zaimi.

He said the undersea tunnel would be constructed using the boring method similar to the construction of the mass rapid transit system in the Klang Valley and would take between three and five years to be completed.

Muhammad said apart from the 17.5km tunnel, the Johor-Riau Link would also include several bridges linking islands off Riau waters to Karimum Island and connect to the undersea tunnel.

“The link between Riau Province and Johor will further accelerate growth in the province under the Indonesian central government’s Sumatra Corridor Development Region,’’ he said.

Muhammad said the link would also benefit Malaysia as Riau was the second richest province in Indonesia after East Kalimantan with oil and natural gas reserves as well as the biggest palm oil plantation in Indonesia.

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Floods in Indonesia ecological disaster: Environment Minister

Antara 20 Jan 14;

Bogor, West Java (ANTARA News) - Environment Minister Balthasar Kambuaya stated that the flooding that has taken place in most parts of Indonesia was an ecological disaster.

"The floods that we now face are all a result of an ecological damage. Our ecology has been completely destroyed," pointed out Balthasar Kambuaya while reviewing the location of the demolished villas in Bogor on Monday.

Balthasar explained that the flooding that had occurred in the past week was mainly influenced by the Asian Monsoon concentrated in Jakarta and West Java and in part, by the heavy rainfall that simultaneously flooded the upstream and downstream of Ciliwung River, along with the tides.

According to Balthasar, compared to the 2007s flooding, the rainfall has not been more than 300 mm a day. Flooding in this year was mainly caused by spatial changes rapidly increasing in the upstream, midstream and downstream areas, especially for settlement.

The rate of ecological damage or environmental degradation in Indonesia year to year has been alarming. It was evident from the decrease in the forest coverage from 49.37 percent in 2008 to 47.73 percent in 2012, or degraded by 1.64 percent within four years.

In the Watershed of Ciliwung, forest coverage has decreased from 9.4 percent in 2000 to 2.3 percent in 2010, a degradation rate of 7.14 percent in the past 10 years, or 0.7 percent a year.

Balthasar stated that the ecological damage in Ciliwung, such as increasing the level of critical land with high erosion and sedimentation and also high fluctuation of water flow between the dry and rainy seasons, were factors that contributed to the flooding in Jakarta and landslide in some areas in Ciliwung upstream.

According to Balthasar, the Watershed of Ciliwung condition increasingly worsened with the difference in the levels of water flow in the dry and rainy season being more than 300-fold.

"Everything happens because of human behavior which is not environmentally friendly, especially in Ciliwung, where garbage is being dumped into the river," he retorted.

Reporting by Desi Purnamawati. (Uu.D018/KR-BSR/O001)
Editor: Priyambodo RH

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Time for a sea change in ocean management – FAO Director-General

New approach to marine resources needed to safeguard world food security, promote sustainable development
FAO 20 Jan 14;

20 January 2014, Abu Dhabi - Major changes in how the planet's marine resources are managed and used are needed to safeguard global food security and ensure the wellbeing of coastal and island countries, FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva told a group of high level policymakers meeting here today.

"We cannot keep using marine and aquatic resources as if they were endless. And we cannot keep using our oceans as a waste pool," he said in remarks made at the Blue Economy Summit (19-20 January, Abu Dhabi), attended by heads of state, environment and fisheries ministers, and other key stakeholders.

Serious threats to ocean health such as pollution, overfishing, and altered weather and rising sea levels resulting from climate change must be tackled in earnest - starting now -- argued FAO's chief executive.

"The health of our planet itself, our health and food security, depends on how we treat the blue world," he said.

Time to act

On average, nearly 17 percent of animal protein consumed worldwide comes from fisheries and aquaculture, and in many small island developing states the figure is much higher.

At the same time, the livelihoods 12 percent of the world's population depend on fisheries and aquaculture, mainly in the developing world.

But 30 percent of world fish stocks are estimated to be overexploited, depleted or recovering from depletion, with economic losses in marine fisheries resulting from poor management, inefficiencies, and overfishing adding up to $50 billion per year, FAO studies show.

And now climate change is posing new challenges to populations who rely on the oceans, by modifying the distribution and productivity of marine and freshwater species, affecting biological processes, and altering food webs.

Weather changes due to climate change are also taking a toll on many ocean-reliant communities, while the threat of rising sea levels is poised to have major impacts, in particular for small island developing states (SIDS). (Learn more about the challenges facing small island developing states, and how they are organizing to meet them.)

The last thirty years have seen some 80 different commitments on dealing with various ocean threats promulgated at the global level, Graziano da Silva noted, adding: "We not only need to commit, we need to act."

A blue economy

The concept of a "blue economy" that came out of the 2012 Rio+20 Conference will have an important role to play in achieving the post-2015 global sustainable development goals, Graziano da Silva said during his remarks.

The blue economy model emphasizes conservation and sustainable management, based on the premise that healthy ocean ecosystems are more productive and represent the only way to ensure sustainable ocean-based economies. It also aims to ensure that small island developing states and developing world coastal states equitably benefit from their marine resources.

To support a shift to this new approach, FAO is establishing a new Blue Growth Initiative,
through which the Organization will assist countries in developing and implementing blue economy and growth agendas.

The initiative will aim to foster partnerships and act as a catalyst for policy development, investment and innovation in support of food security, poverty reduction, and the sustainable management of aquatic resources.

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CO2 emissions are being 'outsourced' by rich countries to rising economies

Greenhouse gas output of China and elsewhere is increased by making goods that are then used in the US and Europe
Suzanne Goldenberg theguardian.com 19 Jan 14;

Jinhuarun chemical plant in Zekou Town, Qianjiang City of Hubei Province, China. A draft UN report says the west is increasingly outsourcing its carbon pollution to China and other rising economies Photograph: How Hwee Young/EPA
The world's richest countries are increasingly outsourcing their carbon pollution to China and other rising economies, according to a draft UN report.

Outsourcing of emissions comes in the form of electronic devices such as smartphones, cheap clothes and other goods manufactured in China and other rising economies but consumed in the US and Europe.

A draft of the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, obtained by the Guardian, says emissions of carbon dioxide and the other greenhouse gases warming the planet grew twice as fast in the first decade of the 21st century as they did during the previous three decades.

Much of that rise was due to the burning of coal, the report says. And much of that coal was used to power factories in China and other rising economies that produce goods for US and European consumers, the draft adds.

Since 2000, annual carbon dioxide emissions for China and the other rising economies have more than doubled to nearly 14 gigatonnes a year, according to the draft report. But about 2 GT a year of that was produced making goods for export.

The picture is similar for other rising economies producing goods for export, the report finds.

"A growing share of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in developing countries is released in the production of goods and services exported, notably from upper-middle-income countries to high-income countries," the report says.

Other middle income countries, with smaller exports, saw a more gradual rise in emissions. For the poorest countries in the world, however, emissions have flatlined since 1990.

Factories in China and other rising economies now produce more carbon pollution than industries in America and Europe.

"A growing share of global emissions is released in the manufacture of products that are traded across international borders," the draft says.

The newly wealthy elites of China, India and Brazil are flying more, buying more cars and otherwise fuelling the consumption that is driving climate change.

But their per capita greenhouse gas emissions are still below those in America and Europe – a gap that China and India regularly cite at climate talks to deflect pressure to cut emissions.

In addition, a large and growing share of the carbon pollution attributed to China and those rising economies was generated in the production of goods that ended up in America and Europe.

The outsourcing of those emissions has skewed efforts to account for all global emissions, which typically was conducted on a national basis. Those accounting efforts are no longer accurate, according to analysts.

"If we are just looking at our national inventory to understand the emissions trends, it is just not telling the full picture of our impacts," said Cynthia Cummis, an expert on greenhouse gas accounting at the World Resources Institute. "We need to understand the full life cycle of all the goods and services that we are purchasing and selling."

There is now growing debate about how to assign responsibility for emissions generated producing goods that were made in one country but ultimately destined for another.

"The consumers that are importing those goods have some responsibility for those goods that are happening outside of our boundaries," Cummis said.

The 29-page draft, a summary for policy makers, was dated 17 December. An edited version is due to be published in Germany in April.

The report is the third in a series by the IPCC, summing up the state of the climate crisis since 2007 and prospects for solutions. The first part was released in September. It is stark about the chances of avoiding dangerous climate change – especially if deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are pushed back beyond 2030.

Temperatures have already risen by 0.8C since the dawning of the industrial age, the report says.

Unless there are deep cuts in emissions – up to 70% of current levels by 2050 – or a near-quadrupling of renewable energy, governments may have to fall back increasingly on experimental technologies for sucking carbon dioxide from the air to avoid dangerous warming, the report says.

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South West District launches S$100,000 fund for environmental campaigns

Sara Grosse Channel NewsAsia 19 Jan 14

SINGAPORE: Youths in the South West District can now get funding for their efforts to tackle environmental issues affecting their community.

The S$100,000 "South West Youth ECo Challenge Fund" will see people between 17 and 35 years old develop environmental campaigns.

These include projects aimed at encouraging recycling and reducing littering.

Environment agencies such as NEA and NParks will identify the environmental issues for the youths to champion.

The fund was launched Sunday morning at South West District's annual environmental event "ECo Day Out", where residents can receive groceries such as rice and packet noodles for their recycling efforts.

This year, the district saw a 6 per cent increase in recyclables collected, as compared to the previous year.

Under the ECo Challenge Fund, youths will be mentored by environmental experts over a period of six months to one year and be given a grant of up to S$10,000 per project.

Dr Amy Khor, mayor of South West District, said: "I think the youth have lots of energy, they are very passionate about environmental issues, and we thought that this fund would be useful in providing them with the resources to initiate useful, impactful and creative projects in the community."

Corporate and community organisations that have contributed and promoted environmental sustainability in the district were also recognised for their efforts and dedication by Minister for the Environment and Water Resources Dr Vivian Balakrishnan.

This year, winners of the South West ECo Awards were Dairy Farm Singapore in the corporate category and ITE College West in the community category.

- CNA/xq

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Indonesians Left to Count the Cost of Widespread Flooding in Jakarta

Markus Junianto Sihaloho Jakarta Globe 20 Jan 14;

The climate agency has rejected statements by Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo saying that the flooding in Jakarta had been caused by natural factors such as high volumes of rainfall.

“Rainfall in the capital in 2014 has been lower compared to 2013 when a bigger flood happened,” said Achmad Zukri, head of extreme early warning division at the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG).

He added that this year’s rain had mostly inundated the areas of West Jakarta, East Jakarta and South Jakarta.

“Rains that have been falling since the beginning of this year are not as heavy as in 2013,” Achmad said. “Rainfall has been patchy since New Year’s Eve, unlike last year, when the heavy rain fell non-stop for several consecutive days.”

Among areas that have seen a drop in rain levels are Tanjung Priok in North Jakarta, Kemayoran in Central Jakarta, Halim Perdanakusuma in East Jakarta, Cengkareng and Kedoya in West Jakarta as well as areas in South Jakarta such as Pakubuwono, Pasar Minggu and Lebak Bulus.

During a visit to Kelapa Gading in North Jakarta, Joko said torrential rain had been a main cause of flooding in the area.

“There has been a lot of heavy rain around Pulogadung [East Jakarta], and the tide has been high. That is where the problem lies,” he said.

Members of the Indonesian Forum for the Environment (Walhi) also condemned the governor’s statements, saying that the flooding and landslides were mainly caused by the clearing of forests for industrial use.

“The water’s volume can’t be changed. What has changed is the land’s ability to absorb that water,” said Mukri Friatra, a disaster management specialist at the nongovernmental organization. “They’re saying the flood is from God, when in fact, rain should be a blessing.”

On Saturday, chief of BMKG’s meteorology center Mulyono Prabowo said in Jakarta that the agency has yet to pinpoint the highest level of rainfall this year, adding that the highest ever recorded was at 350 millimeters per day in 2007 at Pondok Betung, South Tangerang.

“The past few days have seen about 200 millimeters fall per day. In general, rain has been quite high in the Greater Jakarta area, with at least 70 to 80 millimeters recorded on a daily basis, although several areas have seen 150 millimeters,” he said.

Despite the criticism launched against Joko, a resident living near the Ciliwung River said he did not want to blame the governor and that his living near the river could be part of the problem.

“Joko has done his best, but who can resist nature? We have built our homes on the river, but what can we do? This is our home,” said 43-year-old Agus, who lives by the river in Kampung Pulo, as quoted by Liputan6.com.

Agus said he has lived just 10 meters from the Ciliwung since 1986 and that he did not have enough money to move to a safer location.

Chief of the National Family Planning Coordinating Board (BKKBN) Fasli Jalal attributed the flooding to the capital’s population and urbanization.

“The growing population has resulted in the establishment of residential areas that subsequently limit the soil’s ability to absorb the water,” he said.

“If the population continues to increase, and land remains limited, then houses will be built closer to one another and will sometimes have to be built on the riverside,” said Wendy Hartanto, also from BKKBN. Too many buildings built on the land means that the water isn’t being absorbed, he said.

Wendy called on the government not to only continue promoting its family planning program but also to be stricter with urban planning regulations, especially regarding the establishment of residential areas near the rivers.

“In addition, there should be a proper solution to the flow of urbanization, which has seen many people flock to Jakarta, many of whom are lower income earners unable to afford their own properties so they move to cheaper areas like riversides and other areas that are not supposed to be residential areas,” he explained.

Meanwhile, Joko on Sunday said he will soon be holding a meeting with the Public Works Minister’s directorate general and West Java Governor Ahmad Heryawan next week to discuss plans to establish a spillway from the Ciliwung to the Cisadane River, close to their source in the mountains near Bogor, West Java.

Joko explained that the 1.9-kilometer spillway connecting the two rivers would be of great help in minimizing flooding in the city though residents in Tangerang, to the west of Jakarta, are concerned the proposal will just move the flooding from the capital to their city.

Floods force thousands to evacuate in Indonesian capital
Kanupriya Kapoor PlanetArk 21 Jan 14;

Monsoon rains have inundated parts of the Indonesian capital, forcing more than 30,000 people to evacuate and posing a challenge for its wildly popular governor, Joko Widodo, a possible presidential candidate.

Soldiers were deployed to help nearly 50,000 residents in the sprawling city of 10 million people, as floodwaters reached three meters (9.8 ft) in some districts, the National Disaster Mitigation Agency said.

Last year's rainy season brought Jakarta to a standstill, causing a river in the city to breach its banks and swamp the central business district, leaving thousands stranded and causing $580 million in damage to property and companies.

Heavy rains are forecast this week, potentially worsening floods which have killed seven people, mostly from electrocution, and forced thousands to seek refuge at temporary shelters, including schools and mosques.

Jokowi, as the governor is known locally, came to office in late 2012 with promises to improve the city's creaky infrastructure, strained by chronic floods and traffic. The presidential favorite has since launched a number of initiatives to alleviate flooding, including clearing riverbanks of illegal housing and rubbish, and creating more green spaces and drainage to absorb rainwater.

But until those efforts show results, he could face criticism over flood management, especially if the waters rise and more districts are affected. The floods have already caused about $80 million in damage, said the Disaster Mitigation Agency.

"Last year we started clearing the riverbanks and dredging the canals to allow water to flow more smoothly, but it's a slow process and the results will only show in five or 10 years," said Eko Hariadi, spokesman for the city administration.

Immense popular support has put Jokowi far ahead of rivals such as former general Prabowo Subianto and tycoon Aburizal Bakrie in opinion polls. But Jokowi has not declared his candidacy, nor has the party he is affiliated with, the opposition PDI-P, said whether it will back him. That decision rests with former president and party leader Megawati Sukarnoputri, daughter of the country's founding ruler.

Heavy rains also hit other parts of the archipelago, including North Sulawesi province where flash floods left 18 dead and more than 80,000 homeless last week.

(Editing by Jason Szep)

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Malaysia: Support proposed Piasau Camp nature reserve, public urged

Borneo Post 20 Jan 14;

MIRI: The people of Miri can help the government to make a success of the proposed nature reserve at Piasau Camp.

National president of the Malaysian Nature Society (MNS), Professor Dr Maketab Mohamed said two societies – MNS Miri Chapter and the Piasau Camp Miri Nature Park Society (PCMNPS) – were rallying for the public to support the nature reserve as a community based project.

“We have lot of advocacies to save urban forests. A good example is Kota Damasara near Petaling Jaya where we have the society taking care of the forest with Selangor Forestry.”
Chairman of MNS Miri and PCMNPS is Datuk Sebastian Ting.

“We have the society (PCMNPS) working with Sarawak Forestry to take care of the place and make this something all of us should be proud of,” Professor Maketab said before the start of the 8th Hornbill Walk held at Piasau Camp on Saturday.

He was among 100 strong advocates of the nature reserve who defied the weather to take
part in the walk. Others participants were the wife of PCMNPS’ president, and the society’s exco members including deputy chairman Musa who is also MNS Miri chairman and local community leaders Datuk Wan Morshidi Abdul Rahman and wife Datin Juriah Abdullah.

Professor Maketab said it was the tradition of MNS headquarters to support whatever the branches do and that they were proud MNS Miri had spearheaded the advocacy for the conservation of historical Piasau Camp.

“Basically, it is not for MNS or personal glory. Our target is to make sure something like this (Piasau Camp) can be preserved in perpetuity for the people of Miri.

“I think our great grand children will thank us for what we are doing today, so they don’t have to go far for a nature walk and for recreation,” he said.

Earlier, Ting assured the people that their cause was not in vain, although the government had delayed gazetting the nature reserve.

“We are going in the right direction and we urge Mirians in particular to continue supporting to make the nature reserve a reality,” he said.

Hornbill Jimmy, his soul mate Juliet and other offspring did not show up during the walk, but at the end of the walk the participants got to see the carcass of Jimmy’s ex-soulmate Faridah which had been preserved for public viewing once the nature reserve is ready.

Many were sad over her brutal killing on Sept 26, 2013, but were glad the taxidermy was done and the exhibit handed over by a representative of the company doing the taxidermy to Musa and others representing MNS and PCMNPS.

Besides having hornbills and other protected animals and plants, Piasau Camp is synonymous with Miri’s oil and gas industry, and the matured forests act as the green lungs for Miri City and a buffer zone against tidal waves.

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Extreme El Niños Could Hit Twice As Often

Becky Oskin LiveScience.com Yahoo News 20 Jan 14;

The most intense El Niño events may soon hit every 10 years, instead of every 20 years, thanks to warming water in the eastern Pacific Ocean, a new study predicts.

An El Niño is the warm phase of a long-standing natural climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean. When changing wind patterns start piling up warm water in the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific, the redistribution of hotter water triggers changes in atmospheric circulation that influences rainfall and storm patterns around the world — an El Niño.

During extreme El Niños, sea surface temperatures warmer than 82 degrees Fahrenheit (28 degrees Celsius) develop in the normally cold and dry eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Because this part of the Pacific is typically colder than the western Pacific, even 0.8 degrees Celsius (about 1 degree Fahrenheit) of warming in these waters has an outsize effect, said lead study author Wenju Cai.

"Under global warming, the barrier to convection shifts," Cai told LiveScience. "Therefore, it is easier to generate this massive atmospheric circulation associated with an extreme El Niño event." (Convection is the process that fuels storms.)

During extreme El Niños, this warm-water zone stretches across the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean. Because the Pacific's sea surface temperatures are rising, climate researchers have tried to predict the impact of global warming on extreme El Niños, but their models have produced conflicting results, said Cai, a climate scientist at CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, a government research organization in Aspendale, Australia. [Infographic: Earth's Atmosphere Top to Bottom]

"If we just look at sea surface temperatures, there has been no consensus," Cai said.

To better gauge the effect of future warming on the El Niño cycle, Cai and an international group of climate scientists redefined an extreme El Niño. Their study tested 20 climate models that simulated extreme El Niños, but instead of looking at sea surface temperatures, they defined each episode as an increase in rainfall by a factor of 10 over the eastern equatorial Pacific. The results show an increase from an extreme event every 20 years to an episode every 10 years from the present day through the next 100 years. The findings were published today (Jan. 19) in the journal Nature Climate Change.

While the increased frequency could be a boon for the drought-stricken western United States, which would receive extra rainfall, an extreme El Niño has devastating global effects.

During past extreme El Niño events, countries in the western Pacific, such as Australia and Indonesia, experienced devastating droughts and wildfires, while catastrophic floods occurred in the eastern equatorial region of Ecuador and northern Peru. The last extreme El Niño, in 1997-1998, caused $35 billion in damage in the United States and killed an estimated 23,000 people worldwide.

"Extreme El Niños cause a lot of loss of life and productivity," Cai said.

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