Imagine Singapore over the next 50 years...

Tham Yuen-c The Straits Times AsiaOne 10 Jan 15;

SINGAPORE - Even as they celebrate the nation's jubilee anniversary, Singaporeans will get a chance to visualise what their country might look like over the next 50 years.

An expo offering a glimpse of Singapore's future, involving several key agencies, will cap SG50 celebrations this year, SG50 steering committee chief Heng Swee Keat told The Straits Times.

To be held near Gardens By the Bay at the end of the year, it will have interactive exhibits that show what life could be like in Singapore in the coming decades, in areas such as education, leisure and the urban landscape.

Some of the ideas will hopefully come from Singaporeans, who will be asked to share their hopes and aspirations for the country's future, in the run-up to this "finale event", Mr Heng said in an interview on Thursday.

Mr Heng, who is also Education Minister, said Singaporeans, together with the Government, would have to make major decisions that could affect the country's survival and success in the years to come.

"We need to get everyone to think about what kind of journey we want to build," he added.

The large-scale exhibition, called "futuretogether.SG", comes at the end of a year that will see well over 100 events to commemorate SG50, many of them organised by individuals and groups tapping a $5 million celebration fund. Already, some $3 million has been disbursed for 100 projects, and another 250 proposals are being evaluated.

The myriad projects have attracted some criticism that too much money and effort are being expended, and that celebration fatigue may set in, with so many events on the horizon.

To this, Mr Heng said SG50 is really about "people coming together to celebrate in ways big and small... and not just about events per se". He added that a whole range of events would cater to more people.

"The more people take part, the more meaningful and successful our celebration will be," he said. "I hope it will engender an even deeper sense of togetherness as a people, a deeper sense of belonging to our nation, and that it will energise us to commit to working together to build a better future for all."

A potluck home-cooked food movement, #SGEatWithUs, is one project that has received a grant. Teacher Lee Li Theng, 35, who started it with two friends, said: "We just wanted to bring together Singaporeans and friends of Singapore to celebrate the identity that we have."

Freelance artist Don Low, 44, who planned Let's Draw! SG, which involves artists sketching their neighbourhoods and then exhibiting the sketches, said: "In a way, we are kind of trying to remember our neighbour with our drawing, trying to build up the sense of belonging to our neighbourhood, and to our country as well. It's more like a celebration among ourselves."

Several SG50 events will also take place overseas, such as a travelling exhibition of Singaporean contemporary art that will be held in Beijing, London and New York before returning to Singapore. Singapore's embassies abroad and several foreign embassies in Singapore, such as the Embassy of Mexico, have also organised events to celebrate SG50.

Mr Heng said: "We have become very globally connected... We want to celebrate with the world, and we want the world to celebrate with us."

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New pedestrian and cycling route from East Coast Park to Bedok Reservoir Park

AsiaOne 10 jan 15;

SINGAPORE - Soon, residents of Bedok and East Coast will be able to enjoy a new pedestrian and cycling route that takes them from East Coast Park to Bedok Reservoir Park.

The new 4-km route will be ready by the end of next year, reported The Straits Times.

According to the report, there will be directional signs and amenities along the way such as play equipment.

The route runs through Bedok South Ave 1, New Upper Changi Road and Bedok North Ave 1, and also takes users pass Bedok MRT station and Bedok Town Centre.

This is part of a project called Outdoor Play Corridor and the Housing Development Board (HDB) said in a statement that construction will commence second half of this year.

Meanwhile, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) is also rolling out a cycling network within East Coast that will connect MRT stations, schools and neighbourhood centres.

In addition, a heritage trail that will highlight the heritage sites in Bedok and East Coast area will also completed by the first half 2016.

These initiatives are part of the second phase of a billion-dollar Remaking Our Heartland programme in which three mature estates East Coast, Jurong Lake and Hougang are being rejuvenated.

Other initiatives include an enhanced pedestrian mall at Bedok Town Centre that will have more ramps and seating areas by next year, and a new Bedok Integrated Complex - slated to be completed by 2017 - that will house Kampong Chai Chee Community Club, Bedok Sports Centre, Bedok Polyclinic, an Eldercare Centre and Bedok Public Library.

Eight neighbourhood centres within Bedok are also being spruced up with new features such as improved landscaping, more distinctive street furniture and new shelters and mini pavilions. Upgrading works at Chai Chee and Fengshan are already underway and are scheduled to be completed this year.

New cycling, pedestrian paths from Bedok Reservoir to East Coast Park
AMANDA LEE Today Online 10 Jan 15;

SINGAPORE — Bedok residents can look forward to cycling and pedestrian paths as well as a cycling network, under the Government's rejuvenation programme for its estates.

A 4km Outdoor Play Corridor will provide dedicated cycling and pedestrian paths connecting Bedok Town Centre to East Coast Park and Bedok Reservoir Park. Construction will start in the second half of this year.

Also, a cycling network within the East Coast area — connecting to main activity nodes such as the MRT stations, schools, and Neighbourhood Centres (NCs) — will be completed by the first half of 2017.

Giving an update on the developments in the East Coast area — which include the Bedok town centre area and other neighbourhoods within Bedok town — the Housing and Development Board (HDB) said good progress has been made since it announced its Remaking Our Heartland (ROH) plans for the area in 2011. These include the completion of Bedok Mall, the Bedok Integrated Transport Hub, and the Bedok Interchange Hawker Centre and Multi-Storey Car Park, which has 400 parking lots.

In the works are a new Bedok Town Plaza, a heritage corner, and the new Bedok Integrated Complex that will house the Kampong Chai Chee Community Club, Bedok Sports Centre, Bedok Polyclinic, an eldercare centre and Bedok Public Library. The complex is set to be completed by 2017.

To deepen residents’ knowledge on the history of the area, a heritage trail – highlighting the heritage sites in Bedok and East area – will be completed by the first half of next year.

Plans for other NCs in the area are under various stages of implementation and are expected to be completed by next year. New features being installed include entrance markers and community plazas.

The ROH programme was created after Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong spoke of the need to help HDB estates keep pace with the changing needs of the community in his National Day Rally in 2007. Punggol, Yishun and Dawson were the first to be selected for the programme. This was followed by East Coast, Hougang and Jurong Lake.

About 250,000 residents live in Bedok. Those TODAY spoke to welcomed the new developments, citing convenience brought to the area.

Housewife Vandita Khanderwar, who has been living in Bedok for four years, said she does not have to go to Parkway Parade at Marine Parade Road to shop anymore. “I can get everything here at Bedok Mall. There’s Uniqlo and Popular too,” added the 41-year-old.

Delivery packer Xin Yong Cheng, 55, felt that the developments were only necessary as the Bedok estate is old. “Last time there is a hawker centre, now they just upgrade, so it’s the same,” added Mr Xin who has been living in Bedok for seven years.

The public can visit the ROH exhibition situated in front of Block 209 New Upper Changi Road for more information. It will be open from tomorrow (Jan 11) to next Sunday from 11am to 9pm.

Outdoor Play Corridor, cycling network in the works for Bedok residents
Channel NewsAsia 10 Jan 15;

SINGAPORE: The Housing and Development Board (HDB) has announced plans to enhance the Republic's East Coast area as part of the "Remaking Our Heartland" (ROH) programme, following the completion of the Bedok Interchange Hawker Centre, Bedok Integrated Transport Hub and Bedok Mall.

In a media release, HDB said work on an Outdoor Play Corridor, which provides cycling and pedestrian paths connecting Bedok Town Centre to East Coast Park and Bedok Reservoir Park, will commence in the second half of this year.

A cycling network within East Coast, which will connect MRT stations, schools and Neighbourhood Centres (NCs), will be completed by the first half of 2017. In addition, a heritage trail, which will highlight the heritage sites in the Bedok and East Coast areas, will be completed by the first half of 2016, HDB said.

ROH plans for East Coast also include eight NCs within Bedok Town. New features planned for the NCs include entrance markers, community plazas, floor retiling, playgrounds, mini pavilions, as well as street furniture and lighting unique to each NC.

Upgrading works at Chai Chee and Fengshan NCs are underway, while the rest are under various stages of implementation and are on track for completion by next year, the media release stated.

The opening ceremony for the Bedok Interchange Hawker Centre will be held on Sunday (Jan 11). At the same time, a groundbreaking ceremony will be held for the upcoming Bedok Town Plaza and Heritage Corner - which will be built on the site of the previous hawker centre located at Block 207 Upper Changi Road.

- CNA/dl

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Malaysia: Segamat latest to be hit by flood in Johor

HALIM SAID New Straits Times 9 Jan 15;

JOHOR BARU: A total of 115 flood victims from 31 families in Gemereh and Labis in Segamat district were evacuated to flood relief centres as at 4.30pm today.

The evacuation was carried out after heavy rain since noon which led to floodings in the area, forcing two relief centres, one in Kg Batu Badak and another one in Kg Segamat Kecil to be activated.

According to a National Security Council press updates, a total of 27 victims from seven families were evacuated in Gemereh while 88 victims from 24 families were evacuated from Labis.

Floods: Slight increase in johor evacuees
BEN TAN New Straits Times 10 Jan 15;

JOHOR BARU: The state saw a slight hike in the number of flood evacuees registered with 152 victims from 38 families in temporary flood relief centres as of noon today.

This latest figure was a small increase compared to 145 victims from 36 families as at 8am.

The Johor National Security Council (NSC) said all the flood victims came from the Segamat district, which is the only district in the state that is affected by the floods.

The state has five operational flood relief centres that are currently sheltering the victims.

The flood relief centres are in Balairaya Kampung Batu Badak in Gemereh, Balairaya Kampung Segamat Kecil in Labis, Kompleks Penghulu in Pagoh, Balairaya Kampung Spang Loi and Balairaya Kampung Mensudut Lama, both in Buloh Kasap.

A Johor NSC spokesperson said that as of noon today, no flood victims have returned home pending the weather situation and water levels in the respective areas.

"For motorists heading towards the Segamat district, the Jalan Jabi to Bukit Tempurung roads are temporarily closed to traffic," she said.

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Malaysia: Strong wind, rough sea expected to continue until tomorrow

New Straits Times 10 Jan 15;

KUALA LUMPUR: The category two strong wind and rough sea occurring in the waters of Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang, Johor Timur, Sarawak, Sabah and Labuan currently are expected to persist until tomorrow.

According to the Malaysian Meteorological Department, the North-easterly wind with a speed of 50 to 60 kilometres per hour (kph) and waves of up to 4.5 metres high would be dangerous for all shipping and coastal activities including fishing and ferry services.

“In addition, coastal areas in Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang and Johor Timur are also exposed to a higher sea level today,” the statement said.

Meanwhile, third category strong wind and rough sea in the waters of Condore, Reef North, Layang-layang and Palawan were also expected to continue until tomorrow.

The north-easterly winds with a speed of 60 kph and waves of up to 4.5 metres high would also be dangerous to all coastal activities and shipping including workers on the oil rigs. – BERNAMA

Last year’s cold weather might not repeat
MASRIWANIE MUHAMADING New Straits Times 9 Jan 15;

KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian Meteorological Department (MET) has forecasted that the country would receive lesser rainfall and experience a rise in temperature beginning February.

MET's National Weather Centre senior meteorologist Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip said there is a strong possibility that the extreme cold weather that hit our country in January last year may not occur again this year based on a number of factors.

"The Northeast monsoon season which brings heavy rainfalls is ending in February and March, thus it is expected that beginning February, there will be lesser rainfall and cloud, the cold surge from China will no longer hit our states and during that period of time the sun will move closer to our region and as a result we would experience a rise in temperature.

"Our country is expected to experience its highest average temperature in April and May with the states located in the north Peninsular to record the hottest average temperature of about 35 to 38 degrees Celsius," said Mohd Hisham.

Kosmo! In their report state that expert geographer and urban climate research of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) Professor Datuk Dr Shaharuddin Ahmad claimed that our country would experience cold temperature before the monsoon season ends as the world is experiencing a global climate change.

The Malay tabloid quoted him that high pressure winds from Siberia (which currently experiencing extreme cold temperatures) will bring the cold temperatures to our country as it moves to China and South China Sea and across Southeast Asia throughout the Northeast monsoon season.

A similar phenomenon occurred in January last year caused the temperatures in several parts of the country especially the eastern and northern areas of the Peninsula to drop to as low as 17.2 degrees Celsius.

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Indonesia: After only one year, REDD+ agency future is in doubt

Hans Nicholas Jong, The Jakarta Post 10 Jan 15;

The future of the National Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Agency (BP REDD+) has become uncertain after only one year because of a plan from the Environment and Forestry Ministry to liquidate it.

BP REDD+ head Heru Prasetyo said on Friday that he was concerned about the plan from Environment and Forestry Minister Siti Nurbaya Bakar to merge the agency with the ministry, which she is currently restructuring.

“I met Bu Siti on Tuesday and before I had the chance to ask, she said there was this idea,” he said during a meeting with journalists at his office in Central Jakarta.

Under Siti’s plan, BP REDD+ would be absorbed by the climate change mitigation directorate general, which she is yet to form.

Under Siti’s plan the ministry would have two focuses, environmental issues and forestry.

“Both the forestry ministry and the environmental ministry used to have 13 director generals each. So if she has to handle 26 [echelon I officials], she will get a headache,” Heru said.

Siti planned to have only nine director generals under her: forestry planology and environment management, natural resource conservation and ecosystems, river basin areas (DAS) and conservation forests, forest management and natural products, pollution and environmental damage control, waste management; social forestry and environmental partnership, environmental and forestry law enforcement and climate change mitigation.

The Environment and Forestry Ministry has also won backing from Administrative and Bureaucratic Reform Minister Yuddy Chrisnandi for its plan to absorb BP REDD+ into the ministry.

BP REDD+, established by then president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at the end of 2013, is the world’s first Cabinet-level institution working specifically on deforestation and forest degradation, conservation, the sustainable management of forests and the enhancement of forest carbon stocks.

Contacted separately on Friday, Siti said BP REDD+ would serve as an advisory board to the planned directorate general for climate change mitigation.

“The agency’s authorities overlap with those of the ministry,” she told The Jakarta Post.

Heru balked at the proposal saying his agency should remain independent and that its work could complement the ministry’s.

“Under the current arrangement, BP REDD+ is the only institution that has the knowledge [to address climate change] and its role should not be restricted,” he said.

Heru likened BP REDD+ to the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), which could motivate the National Police and the Attorney General’s Office (AGO) in the campaign against graft.

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Best of our wild blogs: 10 Jan 15

How the west was lost
from The Long and Winding Road

Need more voices on the Macritchie CRL Line
from Inertia Is a Sin

16 Jan (Fri): Talk on "Careers in Conservation and Biodiversity in Singapore"
from wild shores of singapore

Bats in my porch: 23. A juvenile fell from the roost
from Bird Ecology Study Group

Singapore Bird Report – December 2014
from Singapore Bird Group

Sisters Islands Marine Park plans for diving, walkways
from Sisters' Island Marine Park

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Students dive into project to save sharks

Audrey Tan The Straits Times AsiaOne 10 Jan 15;

SINGAPORE - For four months, 15 budding marine conservationists devoted one night a week to the study of fish and coral.

The undergraduates pored over colourful images, studied facts about marine creatures, and took lessons on how to survey them - all in preparation for a shark conservation project in the Philippines last month.

The project is called Reef Alert, an annual marine conservation initiative based at the Singapore Management University (SMU).

The eventual goal is to save the thresher shark.

Project head Keith Leow, 22, said: "Having spent most of my life interacting with the ocean through sailing and scuba diving, I've realised the damage caused by careless human behaviour has become increasingly visible."

The thresher shark, known for having a tail that is as long as its body, is listed as a vulnerable species on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species.

It is an oceanic species, and the underwater Monad Shoal, near Malapascua island in the Philippines, is the only place in the world where the elusive shark can be reliably sighted, said Dr Simon Oliver of the Thresher Shark Research and Conservation Project (TSRCP), the non-profit partner of Reef Alert 2014.

Thresher sharks regularly show up at the shoal's natural cleaning station, Dr Oliver added. Such stations are typically found on coral reefs and are where marine animals such as sharks and manta rays go to have parasites removed from their skin by cleaner fish.

Dr Oliver said: "Cleaning stations control up to 90 per cent of species that visit reefs, and 50 per cent of the species that reside there." Reef Alert 2014 was partially funded by the National Youth Council.

Its spokesman said: "The long-term research facilitated by Project Reef Alert will have a positive impact in helping prevent potential damage to the sea."

To prepare for their project, the 15 student participants also spent a night on board a dive boat anchored off Singapore's "ghost island" in October last year.

During that time, they descended some 5m into the waters around Pulau Hantu to identify and quantify the marine creatures on the seabed.

Their efforts culminated in a two-week adventure in Malapascua island last month, where they dived at the Monad Shoal.

The students - 14 from SMU and one from the National University of Singapore - collected data on the marine life at the shoal.

Describing their work as invaluable, Dr Oliver said: "The students helped us understand the community composition of cleaning stations... the more we understand a species, the better able we are to address related conservation issues."

The data, he said, will be used by TSRCP to "develop, implement and maintain Monad Shoal as a marine protected area with World Heritage potential".

The students also conducted programmes for the local elementary school pupils to educate them on the perils of rubbish in the marine environment.

NUS student Crystle Wee, 20, who led the education team, said: "We wanted to educate them about the rich biodiversity they have, and how trash such as plastic wrappers can affect the marine animals."

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Best of our wild blogs: 9 Jan 15

“Pick as Much as Possible” Cubic Singapore’s Year Round Coastal Cleanup @ West Coast Beach, 22 Dec 2014 from News from the International Coastal Cleanup Singapore

Dark Brand Bush Brown mating
from Bird Ecology Study Group

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Stall owner on floods-affected vegetable prices: It's the worst hike ever

Choo Mei Fang The New Paper AsiaOne 9 Jan 15;

He has been selling vegetables for more than 30 years, but the recent Malaysian floods have resulted in the worst price hike he has ever experienced.

Mr Oh Ah Seng, 55, who owns a vegetable stall in the market at Block 628, Ang Mo Kio Avenue 4, is so worried that he monitors the news daily to see if the flood situation has improved.

He said in Mandarin: "It's common for prices to increase during the monsoon season. But this is the first time it has increased by more than a dollar for one kilogram of vegetables."

Mr Oh used to sell brinjals for $3 per kg. But after the floods, it has gone up to $5 per kg, which translates to slightly lower sales for him.

Last month, Malaysia experienced its worst floods in decades.

The flooding in the north-east of the country killed 21 people, and almost a quarter of a million people had to be evacuated from their homes.

RUINED CROPS

The floods also ruined crops, affecting their supply to Singapore and causing vegetable prices to rise.

The Star newspaper quoted Mr Chong Tek Keong, treasurer of the Federation of Malaysian Vegetables Wholesalers Association, who said the prolonged rainy season has caused a supply drop in Malaysia of between 30 per cent and 40 per cent.

Despite the limited supply, vegetable prices at supermarket chains in Singapore have not gone up.

But the same cannot be said for market stalls.

Besides Mr Oh, Madam Sim Bee Hiang, 57, who co-owns a vegetable stall at the same market, has also increased her prices.

She is selling old cucumbers imported from Malaysia at $3 per kg, up from $2 per kg before the floods.

She said: "We have no choice, if not we will make a loss."

Fruit and vegetable wholesalers have not been spared.

Mr Edmund Lim, general manager of Lim Thiam Chwee Food Supplier, said: "About 50 to 60 per cent of our supplies are imported from Malaysia, so this is a very serious issue for us."

One of the Malaysian farmers he gets his supplies from even sent him a picture of the devastation.

Mr Lim added that the company is doing its best to get supplies from other countries such as Thailand and Vietnam.

He said: "Many items ranging from local fruits to leafy and dry vegetables are affected by floods and landslides on our grower's farms."

Prices of Malaysian vegetables such as spring onions have increased by as much as four times, and common vegetables such as local spinach have doubled in price.

He used to be quoted $1.50 per kg for local spinach, but it has now doubled to $3 per kg.

Mr Lim said: "We can only hope that prices will stabilise after three to four weeks, as new crops need time to grow after the weather improves."

Mr Desmond Bernavey Lee, director of FRESHdirect, said 60 per cent of his imports come from Malaysia.

Due to the floods, there has been a shortage of certain fruits and vegetables.

He said: "There is going to be a very low supply of watermelons and honeydew (melon) next week. We can source for alternatives like rock melon from Australia, but it will cost four times more."

But some customers are not too worried about the price increase.

Madam Anna Kudus, 44, a housewife, frequents the wet market at Toa Payoh Lorong 4 about twice a week.

She said: "No point complaining about the prices, since we cannot do anything about it."

Technician Kang Kum Ying, 48, said: "We will just eat whatever is available in the market."

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Three marine, coastal sites to be enhanced for recreation

NEO CHAI CHIN Today Online 9 Jan 15;

SINGAPORE — Enhancements to draw more visitors to three marine and coastal sites — each with its share of biodiversity offerings — are being planned.

In the coming years, Sisters’ Island Marine Park, which is home to rare species of seahorses, clams and sponges, could feature recreational diving spots and improved walkways and shelters. A floating boardwalk could be built off Labrador Nature Reserve, while Changi Beach Park could offer visitors up-close experiences with marine life.

The National Parks Board (NParks) has these plans in mind, but to ensure the enhancements will not come at the expense of biodiversity, feasibility studies will be done at the three sites identified.

Tender documents the statutory board posted on the Government’s procurement portal last Friday said it wants to enhance biodiversity along the Republic’s coastlines and islands, while making the corals and seagrasses — and the living creatures they attract — more accessible to the public.

Labrador Nature Reserve, for instance, is well known for its coastal vegetation and rocky shore, but its coastal and marine habitats are less known to the public, stated the documents. NParks is exploring options to enhance biodiversity of the shallow water reefs abutting the jetty at the nature reserve and to make them more visible to the public, possibly via a floating boardwalk.

At Sisters’ Islands, there are plans to install fixed and floating coral nursery tables off Small Sister’s island, and to incorporate research and conservation elements in landscaping works. Structures could be built in the big lagoon of Big Sister’s island to allow access to intertidal areas, and recreational dive trails could be installed there.

Changi Beach Park, on the other hand, has an extensive and gently sloping sandy intertidal area with diverse seagrass species. But because most of the seagrass and marine animals can only be seen at the lower intertidal areas, NParks envisions growing the biodiversity at the upper intertidal areas closer to shore so visitors can appreciate marine animals without causing unnecessary damage to the lower areas.

NParks did not explain how the three sites were chosen, but wildlife consultant Subaraj Rajathurai told TODAY that the new Round Island Route recreational corridor would pass through Changi Beach Park.

“For Sisters’ Islands, I guess (NParks) wants to see how people can enjoy it more,” he said. “It’s good that they’re calling environmental impact assessments for these areas... hopefully done by the right people, particularly people with lots of experience with marine life here.”

Having nature areas that the public can use is a win-win situation borne out of necessity, said Mr Subaraj. “Some of us would love to have nature areas that are completely left for nature but that’s not really feasible in a country as small as Singapore. I think the best way is to let at least a part of the area be accessible to the public, and have areas that are out-of-bounds as well.”

Dive instructor Sim Q H, 40, said he would be keen to dive off Sisters’ Islands if possible, given Singapore’s relatively vibrant marine life. Pulau Hantu is currently the most popular local diving spot; an additional area would allow recreational divers to practise their skills without having to pay more to head overseas, although the waters here can be murky and the currents strong, added Mr Sim.

Dr Karenne Tun, deputy director (coastal and marine) at NParks’ National Biodiversity Centre said the feasibility studies would begin next month and are expected to wrap up at the end of the year.

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Leave fossil fuels buried to prevent climate change, study urges

New research is first to identify which reserves must not be burned to keep global temperature rise under 2C, including over 90% of US and Australian coal and almost all Canadian tar sands
Damian Carrington The Guardian 7 Jan 15;

Vast amounts of oil in the Middle East, coal in the US, Australia and China and many other fossil fuel reserves will have to be left in the ground to prevent dangerous climate change, according to the first analysis to identify which existing reserves cannot be burned.

The new work reveals the profound geopolitical and economic implications of tackling global warming for both countries and major companies that are reliant on fossil fuel wealth. It shows trillions of dollars of known and extractable coal, oil and gas, including most Canadian tar sands, all Arctic oil and gas and much potential shale gas, cannot be exploited if the global temperature rise is to be kept under the 2C safety limit agreed by the world’s nations. Currently, the world is heading for a catastrophic 5C of warming and the deadline to seal a global climate deal comes in December at a crunch UN summit in Paris.

“We’ve now got tangible figures of the quantities and locations of fossil fuels that should remain unused in trying to keep within the 2C temperature limit,” said Christophe McGlade, at University College London (UCL), and who led the new research published in the journal Nature. The work, using detailed data and well-established economic models, assumed cost effective climate policies would use the cheapest fossil fuels first, with more expensive fuels priced out of a world in which carbon emissions were strictly limited. For example, the model predicts that significant cheap-to-produce conventional oil would be burned but that the carbon limit would be reached before more expensive tar sands oil could be used.

It was already known that there is about three times more fossil fuel in reserves that could be exploited today than is compatible with 2C, and over 10 times more fossil fuel resource that could be exploited in future. But the new study is the first to reveal which fuels from which countries would have to be abandoned. It also shows that technology to capture and bury carbon emissions, touted by some as a way to continue substantial fossil fuel use in power stations, makes surprisingly little difference to the amount of coal, oil and gas deemed unburnable.

Major fossil fuel companies face the risk that significant parts of their reserves will become worthless, with Anglo American, BHP Billiton and Exxaro owning huge coal reserves and Lukoil, Exxon Mobil, BP, Gazprom and Chevron owning massive oil and gas reserves.

If the world’s nations keep their pledge to combat climate change, the analysis finds the prospects are bleakest for coal, the most polluting of all fossil fuels. Globally, 82% of today’s reserves must be left underground. In major coal producing nations like the US, Australia and Russia, more than 90% of coal reserves are unused in meeting the 2C pledge. In China and India, both heavy and growing coal users, 66% of reserves are unburnable.

While the prospects for gas are better, the study still found 50% of global reserves must remain unburned. But there are stark regional variations, with the giant gas producers in the Middle East and Russia having to leave huge quantities underground, while the US and Europe can exploit 90% or more of their reserves to replace coal and provide local power to their large cities. Some fracking for shale gas is consistent with the 2C target, according to the study, but is dominated by the existing industry in the US, with China, India, Africa and the Middle East needing to leave 80% of their potential shale gas unburned.

Oil has the lowest proportion of unburnable fuel, with a third left unused. However, the Middle East is still required to leave 260bn barrels of oil in the ground, an amount equivalent to Saudi Arabia’s entire oil reserve. The study’s conclusion on the exploitation of Canada’s oil sands is blunt, finding production must fall to “negligible” levels after 2020 if the 2C scenario is to be fulfilled. The research also finds no climate-friendly scenario in which any oil or gas is drilled in the Arctic.

The new analysis calls into question the gigantic sums of private and government investment being ploughed into exploration for new fossil fuel reserves, according to UCL’s Professor Paul Ekins, who conducted the research with McGlade. “In 2013, fossil fuel companies spent some $670bn (£443bn) on exploring for new oil and gas resources. One might ask why they are doing this when there is more in the ground than we can afford to burn,” he said.

“The investors in those companies might feel that money is better spent either developing low-carbon energy sources or being returned to investors as dividends,” said Ekins.

“One lesson of this work is unmistakably obvious: when you’re in a hole, stop digging,” said Bill McKibben, co-founder of 350.org which is campaigning to get investors to dump their fossil fuel stocks. “These numbers show that unconventional and ‘extreme’ fossil fuel – Canada’s tar sands, for instance – simply have to stay in the ground.”

“Given these numbers, it makes literally no sense for the industry to go hunting for more fossil fuel,” McKibben said. “We’ve binged to the edge of our own destruction. The last thing we need now is to find a few more liquor stores to loot.”

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Experts warn governments to plan for climate change migrants

Alister Doyle PlanetArk 9 Jan 15;

Governments need to plan better for rising migration driven by climate change, experts said on Thursday, citing evidence that extreme weather and natural disasters force far more people from their homes than wars.

Projections by leading climate scientists of rising sea levels, heatwaves, floods and droughts linked to global warming are likely to oblige millions of people to move out of harm's way, with some never able to return.

The issue is politically sensitive at a time when economic austerity is straining the generosity of host governments and anti-immigrant sentiment is rising in many countries, especially in Europe.

"Natural disasters displace three to 10 times more people than all conflicts and war in the world combined," said Jan Egeland, head of the Norwegian Refugee Council which runs the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) in Geneva.

IDMC data show that 22 million people were displaced by extreme events in 2013, led by Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, three times more than the number displaced by conflicts. In many other years, the ratio was much wider.

In the early 1970s, the total number of people displaced was only about 10 million. Extreme events also include earthquakes and tsunamis, unrelated to the weather.

"Many more people in a growing population live more exposed to more extreme weather," Egeland told a conference in Oslo about migration and climate change.

Chaloka Beyani, the United Nations' special rapporteur on the human rights of internally displaced persons, told Reuters that governments should step up planning for migrants.

"For the future we are looking more to planned relocations for people who are prone to frequent hazards," he said.

Sea level rise of 19 cm (8 inches) since 1900, caused by factors including a thaw of glaciers from the Andes to the Alps and of Greenland's ice sheet, aggravates storm surges in many coastal regions, according to the U.N. panel of climate experts.

The panel's scenarios point to a further rise of 26 to 82 cm by the late 21st century. The panel says it is at least 95 percent probable that human activities, led by burning of fossil fuels, are the main cause of warming.

"We don't have to wait until an island sinks in maybe 50 years time and an entire population vanishes," Beyani said. "There will have to be a planned movement and relocation."

Climate change also added reasons for people to leave home by disrupting food and water supplies. "Access to resources, constrained by climatic factors, breeds conflict," he said.

(Editing by Mark Trevelyan)

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