Yopi Ilhamsyah Jakarta Post 27 Mar 19;
The worst ever recorded El Niño of 2015 caused the world’s weather to change. Presently El Niño is predicted to be more frequent, turning into a major climate anomaly threat. Given its normal 5-year return period, its early appearance this year has raised alarm bells. It is feared that El Niño-affected regions in Indonesia will severely suffer from sufficient water resources that might alter the planting season, reducing agricultural productivity and threatening national food security.
Many studies have revealed a strong correlation between El Niño and rainfall variability which further leads to retreat of the rainfall onset in Indonesia. A significant shift of the rainy season is found as El Niño signs strengthen, causing a prolonged dry season. Based on monthly average rainfall characteristics in 30 years, Indonesia is identified to have three main types of climatic zones, i.e., monsoonal, equatorial, and local type climates. The peak of the rainy season of the monsoonal type climate occurs in January-February. Meanwhile for the equatorial type climate (e.g., Aceh, North and West Sumatera, Riau and Kalimantan), two peaks of rainfall are found in March and October.
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