Erland Kallen Straits Times 8 Jun 19;
The science of meteorology has made tremendous progress over the last 20 years. Today, the quality of a five-day weather forecast (a weather prediction five days ahead) is about the same as a three-day forecast was 20 years ago. If we assign the value 100 to a perfect forecast, the five-day forecasts today would get about 93 marks. This is particularly true for the mid-latitudes, both in the northern and southern hemispheres.
Over the tropics, forecasts have also improved, but there are still some outstanding issues, such as the prediction of localised thundery showers. For large-scale features such as tropical cyclone tracks and monsoons, the forecasts have become much better - five-day forecasts today are as good as two-day forecasts were 20 years ago.
But regional areas of rain showers and thunderstorms are hard to predict, even a day or two ahead. Thunder showers have a much shorter lifespan than large-scale monsoon winds or tropical cyclones.
But we are now seeing research progress that will improve tropical forecasts. This stems from advances in weather prediction science. Weather scientists rely on observations of temperature, winds, pressure and moisture as well as physics. Using the laws of physics together with supercomputers, scientists are able to set up computer models that calculate the evolution of the weather well ahead of the actual weather events occurring.
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