Keppel to build Singapore's 4th desalination plant in Marina East

Channel NewsAsia 22 Dec 16;

SINGAPORE: Keppel Infrastructure Holdings will design, build, own and operate Singapore's fourth desalination plant, national water agency PUB announced on Thursday (Dec 22).

The company was chosen as the preferred bidder after an open tender that attracted 16 bids from seven local and international bidders, PUB said in a statement.

The plant is expected to commence operations in 2020 and will add another 30 million gallons of water (about 137,000 cubic metres) per day to the nation’s water supply.

Under the arrangement with PUB, Keppel will supply water to PUB for a 25-year concession period at a first-year price of S$1.07867 per cubic metre.

"AN ICONIC PROJECT"

Located in Marina East, the plant will be the first in Singapore with the ability to treat sea water, and fresh water from the Marina Reservoir, by using reverse osmosis and other advanced membrane technology, Keppel Infrastructure said in a separate statement.

Keppel Seghers, the environmental technology arm of Keppel Corporation, will undertake the turnkey construction and commissioning of the project, it added.

Keppel Infrastructure Chief Executive Officer Ong Tiong Guan called the planned desalination plant an "iconic project" due to its ambitions of treating both reservoir and sea water.

"This project affirms Keppel Infrastructure's capabilities to create value and offer innovative and competitive solutions for environmental infrastructure essential for sustainable urbanisation."

PUB said the plant will help to strengthen Singapore’s drought resilience as well as enhance the reliability of water supply for the city and eastern Singapore areas by providing an alternative supply to these areas.

According to PUB’s Deputy Chief Executive of Policy and Development Chua Soon Guan, desalinated water is an important part of Singapore's water supply portfolio.

"As a source independent of weather fluctuations, it is resilient against the vagaries of climate change and bolsters the reliability of our water supply against prolonged periods of dry spells and droughts," he explained.

Mr Chua added that the agency has plans to expand Singapore’s desalination capacity to meet up to 30 per cent of the country's future water needs. Currently, 25 per cent of Singapore's water demand is met by desalination, with the rest of the supply coming from local catchments, imported water from Johor and NEWater.

The transaction, which Keppel Infrastructure and PUB are expected to enter into by January next year, is not expected to have a material impact on the net tangible assets or earnings per share of Keppel Corporation for the current financial year, according to Keppel Infrastructure.

- CNA/mz


Keppel Infrastructure Holdings wins bid to build S'pore’s fourth desalination plant
Today Online 22 Dec 16;

SINGAPORE – Keppel Infrastructure Holdings has been picked to build Singapore’s fourth desalination plant in the Marina East, beating out six other bidders for the project.

National water agency PUB made the announcement on Thursday (Dec 22), adding that Keppel Infrastructure will supply product water to PUB over a 25-year period from 2020 to 2045 at a first-year price of S$1.07867 per cubic metre.

When the plant begins operations in 2020, as expected, it will add another 30 million gallons – approximately 137,000 cubic metres of water – per day to the nation’s water supply.

As the PUB’s preferred bidder, Keppel Infrastructure Holdings will form a concession company to enter into a water purchase agreement with the PUB by January 2017.

The PUB added that the fourth desalination plant will be constructed under a Design, Build, Own and Operate arrangement, like how it was done in the first two desalination plants at Tuas.

The plant will “help to strengthen Singapore’s drought resilience”, said the PUB, as well as “enhance the reliability of water supply”.

The latter will be helped by the plant’s proximity to water demand zones in the city and eastern Singapore by providing an alternative supply to these areas, as the Marina East desalination plant will also have the capacity to treat freshwater from Marina Reservoir.

The tender, which opened on April 15 this year, attracted sixteen bids from seven bidders, including international companies.


Reducing our water dependence on Malaysia
The New Paper 23 Dec 16;

Water conservation was a tough sell on a day like yesterday, when heavy rain pounded the island.

But the burst of rainfall should not mask the real and deep water security issues facing Singapore, with one of its four taps - water from Johor's Linggiu dam, which channels water to treatment plants in the Johor River operated by both the state and Singapore's PUB - at a low of 26 per cent.

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Yesterday, the desalination tap got a boost, with Keppel Infrastructure awarded the latest tender to design, build, own and operate Singapore's fourth desalination plant - the first with the ability to treat seawater and fresh water.

With its ability to pump another 137,000 cubic metres (about 30 million gallons) of water a day into our supplies, the plant brings Singapore closer to its aim of meeting 85 per cent of its water needs through desalination and Newater by 2060, when the demand for water is expected to double.

It will also help decrease Singapore's dependence on importing water from Malaysia for its drinking needs.

Expected to be operational in 2020, the new desalination plant will be able to treat sea and fresh water from Marina Reservoir by using reverse osmosis and other advanced membrane technology.

PREFERRED BIDDER

Keppel Infrastructure was chosen as the preferred bidder for a concession period of 25 years by national water agency PUB, according to a statement released yesterday.

The contract is estimated to be worth $400 to $500 million, according to The Business Times.

Singapore and Malaysia recently agreed on the importance of ensuring reliable and adequate water supply from the Johor River as spelt out in the 1962 Water Agreement.

Both sides agreed to take the necessary measures to make this happen, including working on the Johor River Barrage project, which will be fully operational by March.


Keppel to build S'pore's fourth desalination plant
Samantha Boh and Carolyn Khew, Straits Times AsiaOne 23 Dec 16;

The PUB has announced its choice of builder for Singapore's fourth desalination plant, picking the Temasek-linked Keppel Corp's infrastructure arm, diversifying the range of companies it works with on these strategic projects.

Photo: Hyflux

The PUB has announced its choice of builder for Singapore's fourth desalination plant, which will allow it to boost treated sea water supply by nearly 25 per cent in 2020 and bring the Republic closer to self-sufficiency.

It picked Temasek-linked Keppel Corp's infrastructure arm, diversifying the range of companies it works with on these strategic projects.

National water agency PUB announced yesterday that Keppel Infrastructure Holdings was the "preferred bidder", edging out six other local and international companies.

They included Hyflux, which constructed the country's first two desalination plants.

HSL Constructors is in the midst of constructing the third, expected to be completed next year. The firm did not bid for this tender.

Both Hyflux and HSL Constructors are from the private sector.

The fourth plant in Marina East, which will treat both fresh and sea water, will be completed in 2020.

It will increase water supply by 30 million gallons per day (mgd). The first three plants produce 130 mgd.

The move will help build a more weather-resilient water supply even as the nation's water needs are expected to more than double by 2060.

Singapore currently uses 430 million gallons each day, with around half of the demand met by imported water.

The goal is to have desalination and Newater capacities meet up to 85 per cent of Singapore's water needs by 2060.

Mr Chua Soon Guan, PUB's deputy chief executive of policy and development, said of the new plant: "As a source independent of weather fluctuations, it is resilient against the vagaries of climate change and bolsters the reliability of our water supply against prolonged periods of dry spells and droughts.

"We have plans to expand Singapore's desalination capacity to meet up to 30 per cent of our future water needs."

Keppel Infrastructure said the plant will use reverse osmosis and other "advanced membrane technology", but said it could not provide more details until the agreements are finalised and executed.

Professor Neal Chung, principal investigator at the Environmental Research Institute, said it is important for Singapore to have multiple companies with such capabilities, such that it does not put all its eggs in one basket.

However, the challenge on the horizon, he added, is finding a way to keep energy consumed through the desalination process low.

Conventional reverse osmosis - the method used to turn sea water into drinkable water - is known to be an energy guzzler.

"The key is to produce water at low energy, hence reducing the cost as well," said Prof Chung, who is also from NUS' department of chemical and biomolecular engineering.

Similar to the first two desalination plants in Tuas, the fourth desalination plant will be constructed under a Design, Build, Own and Operate arrangement.

Keppel Infrastructure will sign the Water Purchase Agreement with PUB by next month. It will supply water to PUB over a 25-year period from 2020 to 2045, at a first-year price of around $1.08 per cubic metre.

PUB said the plant's close proximity to the Marina Reservoir provides the opportunity to treat water from the reservoir or the sea.

It added that the structures will be located outside the water sports areas and so will not affect such activities.

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Indonesia: President sets 12.700 million hectares as social forestry project

Antara 21 Dec 16;

Jakarta (ANTARA News) - President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) has issued a license for the cultivation of 12.700 million hectares of land as a social forestry program aimed at improving the welfare of people living around the forests.

"The government has allocated 12.7 million hectares of land to be cultivated as social forestry in the 2015-2019 period," the president said in his address when handing over the license of a social forestry project to PT Nagabhuana Aneka Piranti in Pulau Pisang District, Central Kalimantan, on Tuesday.

He said there are still 25,863 villages inside and in the vicinity of forest areas. "About 70 percent of the villages still use forests as sources of their income."

According to Jokowi, about 10.2 million villagers living in forestry areas are still poor and based on the legal aspect they own rights on forestry sources.

He said the spirit of the social forestry program is to create social justice for the people living around the forest areas while preserving the existence of forestry resources.

The way to achieve these goals is to cultivate forest areas through smallholders forestry, peoples forest, customary forestry and partnership forestry schemes.

But in these schemes, it is the local people, the farmers, the farmers groups and the associations of farmers groups who have the land ownership rights over the social forestry programs.

Apart from cultivating it as a forest estate, to maximally make it productive, the social forestry is to be collaborated with forest resource processing industries so that the products by the farmers could also be oriented to export.

"This will serve as an example. The others will follow. There are many others who are still in queue. With this social forestry model, we want to regain our past glory in the forestry sector on the basis of smallholders forestry estate," the president said.

The president expressed hope that soon after the handing over the license, a plywood factory would be developed which will purchase the peoples timber products.

"The factory is expected to purchase the peoples timber with a fair price but the peoples are also expected to sell it a fair price, they should not ask for too high prices. I hope this would serve as an economic trigger in Pulau Pisang District," he said.

Jokowi promised to always check the utilization of the social forestry lands. "I will check it again later, whether it is productive or not, whether it is exploited or being neglected without tree plantation. The land should not be sold, Surely I will get to know it if they are sold because I will continue to monitor it," the head of state said.

According to Environment and Forestry Minister Siti Nurbaya, the social forestry areas in Central Kalimantan cover 1.6 million hectares.

On the occasion, Jokowi handed over licenses on 1,885 hectares for social forestry scheme with license holders reaching 183 families. He also extended licenses for the cultivation of 7,685 hectare village forestry areas with license recipients totaling 1,455 families.

The president also handed over licenses on smallholders forestry covering 510 hectares with 354 family recipients and ones on 1,542 hectares in Sampit District.(*)

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Philippines: Red tide alert up in Visayas

PNA The Standard 21 Dec 16;

SHELLFISH collected from several areas in the Visayas are still unfit for human consumption due to toxic red tide, the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources warned on Wednesday.

In its latest shellfish bulletin dated December 20, BFAR said the paralytic shellfish poison can still be found in Irong-Irong and Cambatutay Bays in Western Samar, Matarinao Bay in Eastern Samar, Leyte, Naval in Biliran province, Gigantes Islands in Carles, Iloilo and Dauis and Tagbilaran City in Bohol.

“Fish, squids, shrimps and crabs are safe for human consumption provided that they are fresh and washed thoroughly and internal organs such as gills and intestines are removed before cooking,” said the BFAR.

Red tide is a common name for a phenomenon known as an algal bloom (large concentrations of aquatic microorganisms) when it is caused by a few species of dinoflagellates and the bloom takes on a red or brown color. Red tides are events in which estuarine, marine, or fresh water algae accumulate rapidly in the water column, resulting in coloration of the surface water. It is usually found in coastal areas.

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Vietnam's disappearing elephants

AFP Yahoo News 21 Dec 16;

Dak Lak Province (Vietnam) (AFP) - Baby elephant Gold has come a long way since he was found trapped in a well in central Vietnam earlier this year.

Today, the one-year-old jumbo, whose tufts of jet black hair sprout in a mohican from his wrinkly head, frolics around a grassy enclosure where conservationists are trying to save his species.

Gold and his new playmate Jun, another rescue, are among only a handful of young Asian elephants in Vietnam, where low birth rates have see the population dwindle.

Conservationists are hoping to nurse the pair back to health and set up a full-scale breeding centre modelled after successful matchmaking programmes in neighbouring Thailand and Myanmar.

"At the rate they're going now, within a generation or so we'll probably lose the elephants," said Tuan Bendixsen, director of Animals Asia in Vietnam, which helps to care for the elephants.

"As the number gets smaller and smaller, it's going to be harder and harder for the elephants to hang on."

Elephants used to roam freely in the area, mingling with potential mates, but human settlements have cut off once-popular breeding circuits.

Now there are fewer than 100 elephants left in the wild and just 80 or so in captivity, mostly used to ferry tourists around the leafy forests of Vietnam's central highlands.

When it comes to mating, those in captivity are not faring much better.

They rarely get the chance to meet a partner since they spend most of the day chained up. Many are also malnourished and overworked, making it difficult to get pregnant.

- Last hope -

Experts say the Dak Lak Elephant Conservation Centre could be the last hope for Vietnam's disappearing pachyderms.

The first goal is to create a small herd, said volunteer vet Dutchman Willem Schaftenaar.

"The elephants that are here should be kept under the best conditions... not keeping them for rides," he added.

But convincing local mahouts to hand over elephants to breed or be pulled from work while pregnant won't be easy. They can earn about $13 a day ferrying tourists around, more than double the average salary in the country.

For many it means losing their sole source of income and the status that comes with owning an elephant -- a symbol of prestige in a country where the animals were historically paraded in royal courts and ridden by fighters heading to battle.

"The elephant here is a big asset, but more important, it's a spiritual animal for us," said elephant owner Y Vinh who is from the M'nong ethnic minority.

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Best of our wild blogs: 21 Dec 16

Singapore Raptor Report – November 2016
Singapore Bird Group

Birdwatching in Bidadari (18 December 2016)
Rojak Librarian

Birdwatching in Hindhede Nature Park (15 December 2016)
Rojak Librarian

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Singapore not taking breather even as it cuts gas emissions

Lin Yangchen, Straits Times AsiaOne 20 Dec 16;

Something grew more slowly than Singapore's economy in the last decade, and it was good news for the environment.

From 2000 to 2012, the economy grew 5.7 per cent a year on average, while greenhouse gas emissions rose just 2 per cent a year, the National Climate Change Secretariat and the Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources said in a joint statement yesterday.

This means a 35 per cent reduction in "emission intensity", which measures a country's emissions relative to its economic activity.

This was one of the key points in a biennial report submitted to the United Nations last Friday in fulfilment of Singapore's obligations to the UN Framework Convention On Climate Change.

The switch from fuel oil to mostly natural gas, the cleanest form of fossil fuel for power generation, helped Singapore achieve the reduction.

The report also stated that most of the country's emissions in 2012 were from power generation - about 83 per cent - either for the grid or by large industrial companies generating their own power.

Transport, excluding aviation and international shipping, contributed about 15 per cent.

The warming effect of these emissions was equivalent to that of about 48 million tonnes of carbon dioxide - termed "carbon dioxide equivalent" - and carbon dioxide itself constituted about 97 per cent of it.

Singapore has also refined the procedure for calculating emissions. It now factors in land-use categories that absorb carbon dioxide, such as forests.

Such land categories absorbed 0.239 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2012, which offset 0.5 per cent of Singapore's emissions.

More refinements are in store. Last month, Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean announced that the Government would be finding ways to enhance emission monitoring and reporting by big industrial energy users, just as the Paris Climate accord came into force.

The Government will work to reduce Singapore's emission intensity even further. By 2030, emission intensity should be 36 per cent less than it was in 2005, with a peak in emissions around 2030, said yesterday's statement.

Professor Subodh Mhaisalkar, executive director of the Energy Research Institute at Nanyang Technological University, said although renewable energy will play a bigger role in the future, its scope in reducing emissions is limited.

"We only have solar, and solar energy is limited because of humidity and rain and cloud... Renewables can only do so much.

"The biggest improvement that Singapore can hope for would be from energy efficiency," he added - whether in buildings, industrial processes or electric vehicles.

For example, NTU is working with government agencies like the Building And Construction Authority and JTC Corporation to design more efficient buildings that not only feature insulating materials but also consider human behaviour in the design, and use sensors and data analytics to optimise energy consumption.

Ms Nur Adibah A. Majeed, an environmental engineer at the Singapore Environment Council, urged the public to join the cause through actions such as taking public transport and reducing electricity consumption.

"We urge our nation to come together and contribute collectively by leading greener lifestyles... Every bit of action adds up."

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Malaysia: Plantations seen behind more than half Malaysian Borneo deforestation

Rozanna Latiff Reuters 20 Dec 16;

Palm oil and pulp wood companies are responsible for more than half of the rapid deforestation in the Malaysian part of Borneo island, an environmental scientist said in an interview.

David Gaveau, of the Indonesia-based Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), used satellite images and data on concessions from more than four decades to determine how fast deforested land was converted into industrial plantations on Borneo.

"The faster the conversion, the more likely that the lands were cleared by plantation companies," Gaveau told Reuters in an interview on Monday.

Just half of Borneo - which is shared by Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia - is now covered by forests compared with 76 percent in 1973, Gaveau said.

The findings by Gaveau and his group are likely to compound criticism of the palm oil industry in particular, which has faced condemnation for its land-clearing by burning and resulting smoke across Southeast Asia every year.

Malaysia and neighboring Indonesia are the world's top two producers of palm oil, a widely used edible oil found in everything from cookies to soaps. Both countries are also major producers of timber and timber products.

Plantations operating on both the Malaysian and Indonesian parts of Borneo have come under scrutiny over the clearing of forest, which has also resulted in a dramatic loss of habitat for wildlife including orangutans.

"By and large, we can say that the oil palm industry has always been the major driver of deforestation," Gaveau said.

But the link between plantations and deforestation was much more stark in Malaysian Borneo, Gaveau said.

Malaysia lost 4.2 million hectares, or 28 percent, of its original forest cover on Borneo between 1973 and 2015, and up to 60 percent of the cleared land was rapidly converted to plantations, Gaveau said.

At the end of 2015, Malaysia had about 10.8 million hectares still covered by forest on Borneo, he said.

But in Kalimantan, on the Indonesian side of Borneo, only about 16 percent of cleared land was rapidly turned into plantations, he said.

"Most of the plantations in Kalimantan were developed either on land that were cleared much earlier, or in forest areas that had been degraded by recurring fires brought on by droughts," Gaveau said.

"But plantations on the Malaysian side have always expanded into forested areas and this has been constant over the past forty years."

However, he said, Indonesian palm oil plantations were rapidly catching up with Malaysia, clearing swathes of Borneo forest from 2005, following a palm-oil market boom.

(Reporting by Rozanna Latiff; Editing by Robert Birsel)

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Indonesia: Javan Slow Lorises Released Back Into the Wild

Vento Saudale & Ratri M. Siniwi Jakarta Globe 20 Dec 16;

Jakarta. Javan slow lorises that were under the custody of West Java's Natural Resources Conservation Agency, or BKSDA, have been released to Mount Halimun Salak National Park in West Java by an environmental organization.

International Animal Rescue Indonesia (Yiari) has already released 10 slow lorises (Nycticebus javanicus), some of which were confiscated from poachers by BKSDA. The release process had to be done in stages.

"Before [the animals] were released, they had to undergo a series of checkups and microchipping," Yiari veterinarian Wendi Prameswari said on Monday (19/12).

In several weeks 10 more animals will be returned to their habitat.

"We are doing the final preparations for the release of 10 more slow lorises. One or two of them will have radio transmitters, so we'll be able to track their progress," Wendi said.

According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature, Javan slow lorises are critically endangered. Under the Indonesian law, whoever keeps them as pets or is engaged in illegal wildlife trade, can face 5 years in prison.

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Indonesia: The fight to save Earth's smallest rhino in Sumatra's jungles

AFP Yahoo News 20 Dec 16;

Way Kambas National Park (Indonesia) (AFP) - Deep from within the Indonesian jungle a solitary, seldom seen forest giant emerges from the undergrowth.

It is a Sumatran rhino, one of the rarest large mammals on Earth.

There are no more than 100 left on the entire planet and Andatu -- a four-year old male -- is one of the last remaining hopes for the future of the species.

He is part of a special breeding programme at Way Kambas National Park in eastern Sumatra that is trying to save this critically endangered species from disappearing forever.

The species is so rarely seen that even villagers living near the park were stunned when a wild rhino wandered into their community.

“They thought it was a mythical creature,” Zulfi Arsan, head veterinary surgeon at the Sumatran Rhino Sanctuary at Way Kambas, told AFP.

“They chased her, and so we had to rescue her.”

Sumatran rhinos are the smallest of all rhinos, and the only Asian variety with two horns.

Unlike their better-known cousins in Africa, Sumatran rhinos are born covered in shaggy, reddish-brown fur, earning them the nickname “hairy rhino”.

Their woolly covering fades to black or disappears almost entirely over their lifetimes, which span 35 to 40 years.

This hair -- coupled with their smaller stature and short horns -- gives Sumatran rhinos like Andatu a gentler, softer appearance than their imposing, armour-plated cousins.

- Hunted for horns -

They once roamed the vast, dense forests of Sumatra, Borneo and Malaysia but land-clearing and poaching have devastated their numbers.

In 2015, the species was declared extinct in the wild in Malaysia, leaving just tiny herds of two to five rhinos scattered across Sumatra and Indonesian Borneo.

Somewhere within the 1,300 square-kilometres (500 square miles) of Way Kambas live an estimated 36 wild rhinos, Arsan said.

In Sumatra there are also small clusters in the west and the island's northern Leuser ecosystem -- the last place on Earth where wild rhinos, orangutans, tigers and elephants roam together.

Poaching is a serious threat. The last rhino killed in Way Kambas was in 2006, Arsan said, but staff take no chances in this section of lowland forest.

Armed rhino protection units patrol the habitat, disabling snares and notifying authorities of intruders and suspicious activity.

“There’s still illegal activities inside the park,” Arsan said.

“The demand for the horn, for rhino products, is still there.”

Three males, including Andatu, and four females are kept in a 100-hectare natural rainforest enclosure within Way Kambas, where vets and researchers take every opportunity to study their unusual breeding patterns.

Sumatran rhinos are notoriously difficult to breed in captivity.

Females are only fertile for a small window each cycle, and need male contact to ovulate. Even then, intercourse does not guarantee conception.

To make matters worse, Sumatran rhinos are solitary by nature and often clash upon interaction.

“In one hundred years we’ve had just seven babies. It’s very hard,” Arsan said of historic efforts to breed the rhinos.

Andatu’s birth in 2012 was heralded as a milestone: he was the first Sumatran rhino born in an Asian breeding facility in more than 140 years.

Since then he has been joined by a sister, who arrived this May to much fanfare.

Andatu is close to reaching sexual maturity, and conservationists hope he can play a star role in ensuring the longevity of the species.

“Every birth is a hope,” Arsan said.

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El Niño fueled Zika outbreak, new study suggests

University of Liverpool Science Daily 19 Dec 16;

A change in weather patterns, brought on by the 'Godzilla' El Niño of 2015, fueled the Zika outbreak in South America, researchers report.

Scientists at the University of Liverpool have shown that a change in weather patterns, brought on by the 'Godzilla' El Niño of 2015, fuelled the Zika outbreak in South America.

The findings were revealed using a new epidemiological model that looked at how climate affects the spread of Zika virus by both of its major vectors, the yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) and the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus).

The model can also be used to predict the risk of future outbreaks, and help public health officials tailor mosquito control measures and travel advice.

The model used the worldwide distribution of both vectors as well as temperature-dependent factors, such as mosquito biting rates, mortality rates and viral development rates within mosquitoes, to predict the effect of climate on virus transmission. It found that in 2015, when the Zika outbreak occurred, the risk of transmission was greatest in South America.

The researchers believe that this was likely due to a combination of El Niño -- a naturally occurring phenomenon that sees above-normal temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and causes extreme weather around the world -- and climate change, creating conducive conditions for the mosquito vectors.

El Niños occur every three to seven years in varying intensity, with the 2015 El Niño, nicknamed the 'Godzilla', one of the strongest on record. Effects can include severe drought, heavy rains and temperature rises at global scale.

Dr Cyril Caminade, a population and epidemiology researcher who led the work, said: "It's thought that the Zika virus probably arrived in Brazil from Southeast Asia or the Pacific islands in 2013.

"However, our model suggests that it was temperature conditions related to the 2015 El Niño that played a key role in igniting the outbreak -- almost two years after the virus was believed to be introduced on the continent."

"In addition to El Niño, other critical factors might have played a role in the amplification of the outbreak, such as the non-exposed South American population, the risk posed by travel and trade, the virulence of the Zika virus strain and co-infections with other viruses such as dengue."

The World Health Organisation recently declared that Zika, which has been linked to birth defects and neurological complications, will no longer be treated as an international emergency, but as a "significant enduring public health challenge."

Professor Matthew Baylis, from the University's Institute of Infection and Global Health, added: "Zika is not going away, and so the development of tools that could help predict potential future outbreaks and spread are extremely important.

"Our model predicts a potential seasonal transmission risk for Zika virus, in the south eastern United States, southern China, and to a lesser extent over southern Europe during summer."

The researchers now plan to adapt the model to other important flaviviruses, such as Chikungunya and Dengue fever, with the aim of developing disease early warning systems that could help public health officials prepare for, or even prevent, future outbreaks.

The research was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emerging Infections and Zoonoses, a collaboration between the University of Liverpool, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and Public Health England.

The paper 'Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Niño 2015' is published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Journal Reference:

Matthew Baylis et al. Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Niño 2015. PNAS, December 2016 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1614303114

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El Nino-linked cyclones to increase in Pacific with global warming - research

Fiji, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, Marshall Islands and Hawaii could face an increased frequency in powerful storms during El Nino
Umberto Bacchi Thomson Reuters Foundation 20 Dec 16;

LONDON, Dec 20 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Small Pacific island states could be hit by more tropical cyclones during future El Nino weather patterns due to climate change, scientists said on Tuesday.

El Nino is a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific occurring every two to seven years which can trigger both floods and drought in different parts of the world.

Its opposite phase, a cooling of the same waters known as La Nina, is associated with the increased probability of wetter conditions over much of Australia and increased numbers of tropical cyclones.

Between 2070 and the end of the century, Fiji, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, Marshall Islands and Hawaii could face an increased frequency in powerful storms during El Nino of up to 40 percent, Australian meteorologists said in a study.

However cyclones may be up to 60 percent less frequent during the opposite La Nina pattern, according to the study published in Nature Climate Change magazine.

Cyclones bring destructive winds, torrential rain and storm surges that are likely to be exacerbated by rising sea levels caused by global warming, posing a serious threat to Pacific islands, the authors said.

"Storm surge...can lead to massive waves propagating far inland, devastating structures and vegetation in its path," co-author Kevin Tory, of the Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) told the Thomson Reuters Foundation via email.

"Salt water inundation can also damage soil, leading to years of reduced agricultural yield," he said.

Researchers said in the last three decades of the century, the ocean's surface waters will be hotter than usual in the Western Pacific due to global warming, resulting in more frequent cyclones during El Nino.

"These results suggest tropical cyclone activity in these regions will increase in a future warmer climate," one of the study's authors, Savin Chand, of Federation University Australia said in an email.

The latest El Nino, which emerged in 2015 and ended in May this year resulted in sea temperatures rising to the highest levels in 19 years.

Small island developing states are already suffering the impacts of climate change, including rising seas and worsening extreme weather, and have pushed hard for more ambitious international efforts to reduce planet-warming emissions.

The Marshall Islands, Fiji and Palau were the first three countries to ratify the Paris climate change agreement to limit global temperature rise to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius earlier this year.

(Reporting by Umberto Bacchi @UmbertoBacchi, Editing by Katie Nguyen. Please credit the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of Thomson Reuters, that covers humanitarian news, women's rights, trafficking, property rights and climate change. Visit http://news.trust.org)

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Safeguarding of biodiversity must be integrated across agricultural sectors

UN Conference agrees to mainstreaming biodiversity to ensure sustainable development
FAO 20 Dec 16;

20 December 2016, Rome - Governments from 167 countries have given unprecedented recognition to the need to protect biodiversity across the agricultural sectors as a key action to achieve sustainable development, including ensuring food security and addressing climate change.

Meeting in Cancun, Mexico at the UN Biodiversity Conference (CBD COP13) which ended on 17 December, governments agreed on specific steps to promote the integration of the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity within and across the agriculture, fisheries, forestry, and tourism sectors.

The Conference Declaration stresses that the international community must involve different governmental and economic sectors and not just environment ministries to protect biodiversity - the thousands of interconnected species that make up a vital web of ecosystem services upon which global food production depends.

"This is a turning point," said Maria Helena Semedo, FAO Deputy Director-General. "The agriculture sectors and biodiversity have often been regarded as separate and even conflicting concerns, yet they are inextricably connected. Agriculture is by nature a major user of biodiversity, but it also has the potential to contribute to its protection," she added.

"Now that the international community has demonstrated its commitment to link both, we can really start building bridges, breaking down silos and tackling global challenges in a more concerted and coherent manner," Semedo said.

FAO Biodiversity Platform - breaking barriers

At the Cancun meeting, governments welcomed relevant policy frameworks, guidance, and tools developed by FAO and invited countries to use guidance from FAO related to biodiversity and the agricultural sectors.

The Cancun meeting also welcomed the new biodiversity platform launched by FAO at the Conference to build bridges between sectors, identify synergies, align goals and develop integrated cross-sectoral approaches to mainstreaming biodiversity in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors.

Aimed at facilitating cross-sector dialogue, the platform will allow ministries of agriculture, forestry, fisheries and environment to share experiences and explore how to best encourage sectors that depend or have an impact on biodiversity to adopt integrated approaches for its conservation and sustainable use

Stepping up efforts

The Cancun meeting invited FAO to continue supporting countries in the development and implementation of measures, guidance and tools to promote the mainstreaming of biodiversity in the relevant sectors.

Earlier this month, FAO's Council, the organization's executive, endorsed principles of a Common Vision for Sustainable Food and Agriculture as a basis for the policy dialogue and governance arrangements needed to identify sustainable development pathways across sectors and along related value chains.

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