More bird flu outbreaks but where's battle plan?

Straits Times 25 Nov 07

People in general may be ignoring the threat because in today's world they are suffering from alert fatigue.

TOKYO - SOME Asian countries have yet to devise a plan on how to respond to a bird flu outbreak, a disease that continues to be a threat for the whole region, a World Health Organisation (WHO) official warned yesterday.

The comment by Dr Shigeru Omi, WHO's western Pacific director, came amid reports of new outbreaks in recent weeks.

In Vietnam, bird flu has hit three provinces. State media in Myanmar reported yesterday that the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus was detected at a chicken farm in the north-east.

In Hong Kong, an egret found in a park has tested positive for the H5N1 strain, prompting a warning to residents to avoid personal contact with wild birds and live poultry.

Over in South Korea, thousands of ducks have been culled in Gwangju after a low-virulent strain was confirmed.

Dr Omi said Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Singapore were ready to tackle outbreaks, but preparations were inadequate elsewhere. He declined to identify the countries.

The H5N1 strain of bird flu has killed at least 206 people worldwide since late 2003.

AP, Reuters

Many still consider bird flu a threat
Karina Rusk, ABC7/KGO-TV/DT 23 Nov 07

SACRAMENTO, Nov. 23, 2007 - KGO - What ever happened to the bird flu? A couple of years ago it was in the news almost nightly and there were dire predictions about a global pandemic that would kill millions. Many still consider the bird flu a public health threat and are preparing for the worst.

International travelers at SFO are keenly aware of the deadly avian influenza also known as bird flu.

"We are very afraid of it. Right now I'm not even sure they have a vaccine for it or not," said international traveler Warren Jong.

The H5NI virus primarily affects birds, from migratory waterfowl to domesticated poultry. It has not been found in the United States.

More than 250 million birds have died or been slaughtered to control the spread of bird flu and aggressive poultry vaccination campaigns have worked in places such as Vietnam.

For now only people who closely handle infected birds are at risk. The real threat is if the bird flu virus mutates making human to human transmission possible.

Dr. Mark Horton is the state director of public health.

"We think it is a matter of sooner or later, not if but when. it could be next month, next year or five years down the road," said California Department of Public Health Director Dr. Mark Horton.

The World Health Organization is tracking bird flu outbreaks in 60 countries and territories.

There is nearly 350 human cases in 12 countries. More than 200 of those people have died with more than half of the deaths in Vietnam and Indonesia.

The W.H.O. predicts in a pandemic up to 35 percent of the population could be infected and the death toll would be at least seven million people. The ease of travel will accelerate the process.

"The models which exist would indicate that this virus could spread in three months globally," said Former W.H.O Global Influenza Director Klaus Stohr, Ph.D.

The worst pandemic happened in 1918 when a similar bird flu virus did mutate and killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide, 675 thousand in the U.S.

But this is 2007, not 1918. There are antibodies, medical advances and even a pre-pandemic vaccine with others in development.

Dr. Roger Baxter of Kaiser Permanente doesn't agree with a worst case scenario and intentional or not he thinks dire predictions are a way to get attention and money.

"We're a fear driven country that funding for our public services is driven though fear," said Director of Vaccine Study Center Dr. Roger Baxter.

No one knows just how deadly a pandemic would be but the "what if" concerns have triggered billions in spending.

The federal government is investing more than $1 billion dollars alone in ramping up vaccine production capacity.

The people preparing for a pandemic flu say the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 serve as a poignant example of the multi layered coordinated response needed in an emergency.

California is among those taking unprecedented action. The state has spent 241 million dollars stockpiling goods.

This is a sample of some of the supplies which are strategically warehoused around the state; ventilators, respirators, masks.

Antiviral medication is available for 25 percent of the state's residents and the ability to create mobile hospitals.

"We purchased enough medical supplies, equipment and pharmaceuticals for 21 thousand additional beds," said Elisabeth Lyman from the California Public Health Emergency Preparedness.

In the event of a pandemic, there are plans to limit travel, close schools and even have people quarantine themselves at home.

"It's pretty much separating the ill from the non ill, being able to disinfect the household appropriately," said Santa Clara County Public Health Officer Dr. Marty Fenstersheib.

While no one disputes the necessity of planning for a pandemic some do question the huge allocation of resources .

"The monies that go toward this actually do detract from our normal health infrastructure and so I think that is actually dangerous," said Dr. Baxter.

But just like the millions that are spent retrofitting bridges for the next big earthquake, government health officials challenge anyone who says the money preparing for a pandemic is not well spent.

"Quite to the country. I think it would be quite irresponsible not to move ahead," said Horton.

One thing everyone seems to agree on is that people in general may be ignoring the threat because in today's world they are suffering from alert fatigue.