China weather chaos a sign of things to come: experts

Dan Martin Yahoo News 30 Jan 08;

Don't tell the thousands of Chinese stuck at railway stations or airports, but the chaos caused by a vicious cold spell afflicting much of China could be just a taste of things to come, experts say.

The inclement weather and ensuing problems merely highlight the country's increasing vulnerability to the extreme weather swings characteristic of global climate change, experts say, and is likely to be repeated in future years.

Vast areas of central and southern China have experienced the most severe winter in half a century in the past few days, coming on the heels of one of the warmest winters on record last year.

With climate change gaining pace and the planet generally warming up, the social, economic and political impact on China will rise along with the mercury, experts said.

"As a developing country where the vast majority live in poor circumstances, China is unusually vulnerable to this," said Paul Harris, a professor at Hong Kong's Lingnan University, who studies the social impact of climate change.

"But what we've clearly seen this week is the inability of the government to cope with such extreme events."

There is no way to prove climate change is to blame for the extreme cold snap, but some Chinese government scientists see no other explanation for the wild temperature swings, particularly in the areas that have become accustomed recently to mild winters.

"There is no doubt (climate change is to blame) for such weather events," Wang Qiwei, a climatologist with the China Meteorological Administration, wrote in an online forum set up to answer public questions about the cold weather.

"And it's a reminder that mankind must protect this globe of ours and pay more attention to how we impact our environment."

Although climate change is most closely associated with rising world temperatures, many scientists say it also increases the intensity of all kinds of weather.

"Snow in the south of China? Whoever would have imagined that?" said Yang Ailun, climate change campaigner for Greenpeace China.

"China will be one of the countries most affected by climate change and it is in China's best interest to do more to prepare," she adds, suggesting greater disaster-response spending.

China has a history of devastating natural disasters but the current harsh winter is the latest example of increasingly extreme weather as climate change progresses.

Average 2006 temperatures in China were the warmest in 55 years, while last year saw some of the worst regional droughts in decades, leaving huge swathes of farmland withered and rivers at record low levels.

Chinese climatologists expect more extreme weather over the years, with potentially dire effects on people and agriculture.

"Global warming incidents will be more prominent, more frequent and intense, including torrential rains, droughts, and hurricanes," wrote the meteorological administration's Wang.

China's vast numbers of poor usually suffer the most from natural disasters, raising the spectre of weather-induced social unrest, Hong Kong professor Harris said.

"The people hit hardest are the poor and powerless. Climate change will just lead to more (social unrest)," he said.

The current freezing weather has paralysed transportation just as millions of people try to head home for the annual Lunar New Year holiday.

It has also triggered a power crisis as the transport chaos has endangered shipments of coal to electric power plants just as plummeting temperatures have caused energy demand to soar.

The situation starkly illustrates how extreme weather has the potential to bring the country to its knees, said Harris.

He adds that in future China will be forced to spend more on mitigating the effects of climate change, such as efforts to ensure clean and ample water supplies in times of drought.

"China is spending on building Olympic stadiums, sending astronauts into space and building up its military instead of investing in these things," he said.

"Climate change is not a central factor in current economic planning and I think that is a problem."