6.5 million people = A better Singapore?

Nazry Bahrawi, Today Online 2 Feb 08;

TWO decades from now, Singapore will be a hive of even greater activity — an exciting place to live and work in, according to a scenario painted by demographic, healthcare and urban planning experts at a discussion forum organised by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) on Friday.

Panellist Dr Vernon Lee, a public health physician who works for an international institution, envisages Singapore developing into a leading research centre on tropical diseases and selling its healthcare expertise to others in the region.

With further progress — built on the bedrock of order and rationality — the management of waste will reach levels that will allow it to be put back into the system, said Dr Malone-Lee Lai Choo of National University of Singapore's (NUS) Department of Real Estate.

But one worrying thought persisted: Will it become a mite too packed once Singapore hits a targeted population of 6.5 million?

Do we really need 6.5 million people when even a population of 5.5 million seems a staggering crowd, asked one concerned participant.

Another asked: Instead of continuing to depend on imported foreign talent, why not encourage the return of our own local talents who are now living and working overseas?

Responding to that, IPS Senior Research Fellow Dr Yap Mui Teng said that while one preferred enhancing the fertility rate to arrest the decline in population, a faster resolution of the problem in the short term would be to rely on migrants to make up the shortfall.

Explaining the government's rationale, consultant demographer G Shantakumar, a panellist, added: "These migrants are people who bring with them a lot of talent and perhaps money. Who does not want money?"

But despite the rapid inflow of migrants over the last few years, Singapore's social fabric has not been threatened.

Dr Malone-Lee agreed that Singapore should not "overly push" for a bigger foreign population. Providing a fresh perspective into an issue, she said: "More people means we can look after the environment better.

"We are stewards of the environment and we should also know how to look after it and make it productive. Our city will not grow unless we open up and generate more production capacity," she said.

Worker migration 'better way to boost population' in Singapore
Raising fertility is a much slower method: academics
Matthew Phan, Business Times 2 Feb 08;

IMMIGRATION of foreign workers is essential if Singapore wants its population to grow, said academics at a session on population and urban planning at the Singapore Perspectives 2008 conference yesterday.

Assuming fertility rises but there is no net immigration into Singapore, the country's population would be about 4.77 million in 2030, according to projections by Yap Mui Teng and G Shantakumar of the Institute of Policy Studies.

It is only by assuming net immigration of 30,000 workers per annum or more by which Singapore will manage to increase its population to over six million by then.

'Raising fertility is a much slower way of increasing the population than net migration,' said Dr Yap.

Migration will mitigate the burden on the working population, which will have to support a higher number of children and elderly dependants.

By 2030, some 66 per cent of Singapore's population could be aged between 15 and 64, the so-called 'working ages', down from over 70 per cent in 2010, said Dr Yap.

About 19 per cent of the population could be over 65 years of age, and another 15 per cent could be below the age of 15.

This means that the number of workers per elderly person would fall from 8.3 in 2010 to 3.5 in 2030, she said.

However, a larger proportion of migrants will lead to other issues. Singapore's future population base will not be homogenous, said Malone-Lee Lai Choo from the National University of Singapore.

Urban planners will have to deal not only with 'quantitative' issues, like how many homes or roads the country needs, but will also need to accommodate different values, lifestyles and choices.

With more migrants, there may also be a more transient population, with some owning homes here even if they work elsewhere. The question will be how to provide for them without wasting resources or land, Dr Malone-Lee said.

While a few in the audience questioned the need to even grow the population to over six million, Dr Malone-Lee said the key issue was not the actual number of people but how to manage 'excessive consumerism' and 'waste'.