Key question is what's Singapore's correct population size to survive?

Letter from Syu Ying Kwok, Straits Times Forum 7 Feb 08;

I REFER to Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew's comments in the article, 'MM 'not quite sold' on idea of 6.5m population' (ST, Feb 2).

Singapore's leaders can determine whatever population size they want for Singapore in the future, but can we predict and determine what the world will be like in 2030?

The world will grow only smaller with globalisation. People and talents, already highly mobile now, will move to the most exciting cities, and not necessarily cities that have the most space and comfort.

Thus, the important question is: What is the correct size for us to survive and prosper in 2030? Frankly, if even 6.5 million is not enough, can Singapore compete with other mega cities of the future?

Singapore now stands at the crossroads; we can be the most exciting and dynamic global city in Asia in the next 20-30 years; many other cities envy us and do not even have the proper base and infrastructure to achieve what we have.

Do we want to give up before trying? Can we achieve progress year after year with just a population of 4-5 million while the rest of Asia's mega cities steam ahead? Will Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Mumbai stand still in the next decade?

MM Lee does not want to see Singapore becoming like Hong Kong (buildings after buildings), but HK Chief Executive Donald Tsang is paving for a Hong Kong with a 10 million population, and they have 1.2 billion people in their back yard.

Singapore is a small island state with no resources and no hinterland. Is it then wise to limit the only strength and resource that we can have, that is, 'people'? Our economy is not as mature as that of Switzerland, Norway, Finland or Sweden. Thus it's unrealistic to expect Singaporeans to compete against those economies.

New York and Tokyo are big magnets for talented people; there is even a saying about New York: 'If you can make it there, you can make it anywhere'. People don't go there for the crammed housing, expensive car park lots and jammed subways. With a small population size, can we support New York's Broadway or London's West End here in Singapore? No. These are important because the most talented individuals on Earth go to them. The same goes for world famous chefs and restaurants. We want talented people to stay and work in Singapore; they can then afford to buy a big retirement home and big cars in Indonesia or Thailand and enjoy great holidays.

The sudden explosive growth in the past two years has caught many Singaporeans by surprise. The increase in population due to foreigners and investments coming in has strained our transport and housing infrastructures. These are one of the many reasons why so many Singaporeans are against any further increase in our population size as major infrastructures are being strained at the seams. It is inward looking to ask what numbers we are comfortable to live with; we should ask what population can the current and future technology allow our small island to have in order for us to compete with the global cities of the future.

One of the most important shipping lanes, the Straits of Malacca, is so aptly named because Malacca, now a sleepy laid-back 'town', was the most prosperous port in the region hundreds of years ago. The Port of Singapore Authority can be set up anywhere along the eastern Malaysia Peninsula and still prosper. The Straits of Malacca serves as a gentle reminder that we can go very wrong very fast if we set our sights wrongly.