More cars, less pollution in Singapore?

Possible, but only if 1 in 2 are hybrid vehicles
Sheralyn Tay, Today Online 17 Mar 08;

IT'S A tall order, but if one in two cars on our roads were swapped with a hybrid car, we could, theoretically, slow the rate of greenhouse gas emissions — even as the car population increases at present rates.

It is a scenario that gives even more reason to push for greener transport, said Professor S K Chou, executive director of the Energy Studies Institute, at a recent roundtable on clean and sustainable land transport organised by the Singapore Environment Council.

Transportation contributes to almost a quarter of carbon emissions now, noted Prof Chou, who is also the head of the Energy and Bio-Thermal Systems Group at the National University of Singapore's Department of Mechanical Engineering. "Based on present trends, we can expect carbon emissions to double in 50 years," he added.

However, one way to reverse the upward trend and "flatten carbon emissions" is to look at green vehicle alternatives, said Prof Chou, who did a study on the hybrid car, a vehicle powered by internal combustion engine and an electric motor.

Prof Chou conducted a study to calculate the social cost — calculated as the total cost to the country and not just the individual — of the dual-powered car reaching critical mass here. "We wanted to study certain scenarios to show that if we impose certain improvements in vehicle efficiency, we can show that we can slow or reverse carbon dioxide emissions," he explained.

Factoring assumptions on the car replacement rate, the premium cost of owning a hybrid, fuel consumption and price of petrol, Prof Chou worked out that if 50 per cent of the cars here were hybrids, it would still be possible to have gains in fuel efficiency and even see carbon emissions level off.

And if the "ambitious" rate of 95 per cent is reached in 2020, fuel efficiency can be expected to increase to 126 per cent — based on a projected 132 per cent increase in car population. All of Prof Chou's calculations were based on 2006 data on costs and conventional cars.

Even more striking, carbon emissions would increase only about 104 per cent. As for the so-called "return on investment" on the purchase of a hybrid car, financial gains will be even more evident if petrol prices go up, he added.

"For hybrid cars to reach a financially neutral position, all it takes is an increase of 2 per cent in petrol prices," he said, as higher petrol prices makes energy efficient technology more feasible.

The study is still "work in progress", said Prof Chou. He is quite certain the day will come when green technologies become mainstream. "Five, 10 years from now, you never know, there may be so many impositions and taxes on hydrocarbon fuels that we have no choice but to buy hybrid cars," he said.

And in line with the focus on green transport, the third Regional Environment Sustainable Transport Forum, organised by the Land Transport Authority and National Environment Agency will start today.

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