Australian climate report like 'disaster novel': minister

Yahoo News 6 Jul 08;

Heatwaves, less rain and increased drought are the likely prospect for Australia, according to a new report on climate change which the agriculture minister said read like a "disaster novel".

The report, by the Bureau of Meteorology and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, found that the world's driest inhabited continent is likely to suffer more extreme temperatures due to climate change.

It said that exceptionally hot years, which once occurred every 20 to 25 years, were more likely to hit every one or two years. And the hotter weather could begin as soon as 2010.

Agriculture Minister Tony Burke said the assessment indicated that the risk of drought would double, as would the area of Australia declared to be in drought.

"Parts of these high level projections read more like a disaster novel than a scientific report," he told reporters.

"What's clear is that the cycle of drought is going to be more regular and deeper than ever."

The report is part of a government review of drought policy.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said the report, which found that the area of Australia having an exceptionally hot year could increase from just under five percent to as much as 95 percent, was "very disturbing".

"The analysis shows that the extent and frequency of exceptionally hot years have been increasing rapidly over recent decades and this trend is expected to continue," the report concluded.

Rainfall, which has been falling since the 1950s -- partly due to climate change -- is also likely to decline with southern Australia and the southern island of Tasmania among the worst affected, it said.

Australia faces worse, more frequent droughts-study
Reuters 6 Jul 08;

PERTH (Reuters) - Australia could experience more severe droughts and they could become more frequent in the future because of climate change, a government-commissioned report said on Sunday.

Droughts could hit the country twice as often as now, cover an area twice as big and be more severe in key agricultural production areas, the Bureau of Meteorology and Australia's top science organization, the CSIRO, said in a joint report.

The study also found that temperatures currently defined as "exceptional" were likely to occur, on average, once in every two years in many key agricultural production areas within the next 20 to 30 years, while spells of low rainfall would almost double in frequency from current figures.

Australia, suffering its worst drought in 100 years, has seen its wheat exports tumble in the past two years.

The Pacific nation is normally the second-largest wheat exporter in the world, but the harvest has been decimated to just 13 million tonnes last year because of drought.

The report, commissioned by the left-leaning Labor Party government as part of a review of national drought policy, said about 50 percent of the rainfall decrease in south-western Australia since the 1950s was likely due to emissions of greenhouse gases.

It added current policies defining areas eligible for government drought assistance were out-of-date and more areas needed to be included for drought support.

"We've already seen farmers walking off the land and rural communities struggling to stay afloat in the face of widespread stress and depression," Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Tony Burke said in a statement.

"Yet this report suggests this rare event could occur much more often due to climate change. We need to act now to ensure we are better prepared for climate change in the future."

(Reporting by Fayen Wong; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)