Rising heat could trigger water wars

Shobana Kesava, Straits Times 26 Jul 08;

CLIMATE change woes could lead to regional wars over water, according to experts gathered in Singapore to discuss the security impact of global warming.

Changes must begin now, they said, for the world to survive extreme weather conditions. This included flooding and drought, which could be experienced 30 to 70 years from now, the experts said at a forum organised by the S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies at the Nanyang Technological University.

Professor Brahma Chellaney, an analyst in strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research in India, said future wars could be fought not over oil, but water.

He pointed out that Asia has 20 times less water per capita than drought-plagued Australia and that inter-state water disputes are already rife in India. In the south, the lack of clear river-water allocation rules creates high economic and environmental costs.

'Asia has less fresh water per capita than most people realise. China and India are reaching the level of water scarcity matching the Middle East,' he said.

And as global warming takes hold, the fear is that droughts will spread in the region, causing widespread water shortages.

He said models like the Indus Water Treaty, which divides water flow between rivers in Pakistan and India, would be useful to emulate.

In tandem with droughts, floods caused by rising sea levels are expected to hit low-lying countries.

Associate Professor Wong Poh Poh of the National University of Singapore's geography department said that by 2100, most of the tens of millions affected by floods will come from Asia, forcing possible migration.

He cited findings from the Nobel Peace Prize-winning Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change report.

Professor Arnulf Grubler, from Yale University's school of forestry and environmental studies, urged governments to provide incentives, and businesses to take the lead in finding solutions with scientists.

SHOBANA KESAVA