Advice from futurist on Singapore baby crisis: Foreigners are the future
Karen Wong, The New Paper 23 Aug 08;
Dr Canton also thinks that Singapore should work towards achieving self-sufficiency in energy source and be an experimental laboratory for alternative energy.
THEY call him Dr Future.
He claims he can see beyond the horizon.
And his answer to the problem of a talent crunch: Don't just encourage people to have more babies, look towards immigration.
That is futurist James Canton's take on the global war on talent and Singapore's shortage of babies.
He said in an interview yesterday: 'Women in developed countries are putting off marriage and babies for their careers.
'You cannot have wealth and prosperity and more babies. So what's the answer? Immigration.'
'Dr Future' thinks that Singapore, being a pluralistic society and a great place to live, should take a more aggressive role, like the US, in recruiting foreigners to increase its productivity.
The San Francisco-based Dr Canton is a social scientist, business advisor, author and motivational speaker.
He founded and chairs the think-tank Institute for Global Futures and is a member of the Economic Development Board's International Advisory Council.
The council is headed by Defence Minister and Minister-in-charge of the Civil Service Teo Chee Hean.
Well-known for his predictions on future trends, Dr Canton will be speaking to an audience of more than 600business leaders and policy makers at the 27th SIM Annual Management Lecture today.
Dr Canton also thinks that Singapore should work towards achieving self-sufficiency in energy source and be an experimental laboratory for alternative energy.
Looking out of the windows of the meeting rooms in Swissotel the Stamford, where the interview was being conducted, he made a wide sweep with his arm and asked: 'Why aren't there solar collectors on every building out there?'
Our potential
He said that if Singapore can harness alternative energy sources successfully, it will, first, signal to the world that it can be done and, second, that if a company wanted to do business in a place with a secondary energy source, it could come to Singapore.
There is a strong likelihood that oil has peaked, he said.
The next thrust in energy will be nuclear energy, he added.
So, did he predict the current credit crunch gripping the US?
Dr Canton's answer: 'I predicted two things - that there would be an excess of credit which will have an impact on global liquidity, and that certain asset classes, like real estate, would lose its value.'
Of the near future, he said: 'We are going to see Europe slide into recession. We are going to see Asia catch that cold, but not so badly.'
With globalisation, everything is interlinked.
Fast-moving future
And with that, changes are accelerated, he said.
'We are not talking five-year timelines. We are talking about five minutes,' he said.
What Dr Canton calls his 'global sensing network' are key people spread over the world who are either part of his organisation or who share information with it.
Married to a psychologist, he has three children aged 15, 8 and 6.
With his eye always on the future, what does he enjoy about the present?
Dr Canton replied, still about the not-so-distant future: 'As soon as I leave (Singapore), I will be on a dog sled race in Alaska.'
Before his visit, he said, he was trekking in the Alps.
He is also trying to arrange a trip to Bali to surf.
He was coy about revealing his age, but he said he takes his health seriously.
His secret to good health?
'Leading an active life, doing what you love and being with the people you like,' he answered.
Singapore to run out of workers 'in 5 to 8 years'
Robin Chan, Straits Times 23 Aug 08;
IMAGINE calling the SingTel help desk only to find that the person answering your call is an American in Nebraska.
It may seem unthinkable, but outsourcing skilled jobs to equally developed countries like the United States may become a reality here within five years.
The prediction was made here yesterday by Dr James Canton, futurist, author and business adviser to many of the world's top companies, at the 27th SIM Annual Management Lecture.
Dr Canton, who also sits on the international advisory board of Singapore's Economic Development Board, said that because of a low replacement rate, 'Singapore is going to run out of people in the next five to eight years'; so while businesses may continue to set up shop here, they will find no people to do the job for them.
Falling fertility rates and an ageing population are certainly not unique to Singapore, as Dr Canton pointed out.
For many developed countries, the wealthier they are, the lower their fertility rate.
However, this issue is especially sensitive for Singapore, given its small and relatively affluent population.
This problem is also certainly not new. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong used his National Day Rally speech last weekend to announce new measures to encourage couples to have more children.
But ultimately, Dr Canton felt that this may prove elusive as 'it is ambitious to get people to change behaviour' unless there is suddenly a social consensus to reverse this trend.
He suggested that a liberal immigration policy may be needed. And he foresees the workforce here eventually reaching a middle ground by Singapore boosting its fertility rate a little and having a set immigration policy.
Dr Canton constantly asked thought-provoking questions to prompt the 600 or so listeners to think hard about the future yesterday.
Members of the audience were told to embrace innovation, even if they do not understand it. They were also urged to collaborate with competitors as a diversity of ideas will bring competitive value.
He encouraged them to meet people 'you may not want to introduce to your mother', alluding to those with different cultures and lifestyles, as they would be able to teach them something new.
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