Thai climate experts warn of major storm in coming months

Anasuya Sanyal, Channel NewsAsia 20 Aug 08;

SAMUT PRAKARN : Bangkok could be hit by its worst storm in 50 years in the coming months, according to a Thai scientist who also warned the country about the threat of a tsunami in 1998.

The storm, along with 100 kilometre per hour winds and record high sea levels, could potentially create waves of 4.5 metres high - completely inundating coastal communities along the Gulf of Thailand.

The warning from Thai climate and ocean experts came during the prime months for typhoons and cyclones, which could trigger the phenomenon called "storm surge".

But critics said these predictions are sowing unnecessary panic among Gulf residents, who are already alarmed by the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in May.

Climate scientists said the communities along the Gulf would be the most vulnerable in the event of a storm surge, but they also admitted that the likelihood of a storm entering the Gulf is low. However, that has not done much to ease the worries of residents.

Some experts said what is being called scaremongering is better than long-term negligence.

Dr Seree Supratid, director of Thailand's Natural Disaster Research Centre, said: "In terms of disaster management, you have to think about the worst case scenario first. For example, if people are aware of this possibility, they will (be prepared) and will help their families, and they will be safe."

In Bangkok, government preparedness plans for emergency drills and leaflets have not yet come to fruition.

But residents in Samut Prakarn, 29 kilometres south of Bangkok on the Gulf, are confident they will be given ample warning if a storm approaches. They are less sure, though, about what may happen afterwards.

"I have nowhere to go and I don't have relatives who live somewhere else. If it's only flooding, it's still okay for me. But if it's a major storm, I'm worried it might destroy the whole house," said one old lady who resides in Samut Prakarn.

Another resident said: "The local government has given us no official warning about the storm surge. But I've seen my neighbours starting to panic. Some have already moved."

Budget constraints and property disputes have made building a sea wall impossible.

However, experts said a good warning system, awareness campaign and flood prevention measures in the event of a major storm and possible surge could be the difference between life and death. - CNA /ls