The biggest threats to regional security

Esther Ng, Today Online 13 Sep 08;

CLIMATE change and increasing socio-economic divide.

These are the biggest threats to security in South-east Asia today — more so than competition for scarce resources or an increased military spending, four security experts told Weekend Today.

For example, a two-degree rise in global temperature is enough to affect the economies and livelihood of people in Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and to some extent Malaysia, said Dr Desmond Ball, a professor in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University.

He was among the experts who spoke at a panel discussion on sustainable security organised by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) and Oxford Regional Group on Friday

“Most of the large urban areas are along coastal lines. Any increase in sea-level would affect the population and what you’ll get is a large-scale continental people movement,” he said.

“Jakarta and Bangkok are particularly vulnerable — they have been experiencing heavy rainfall or flash floods over the last two years.”

“Extreme weather conditions affect businesses, for instance, a hotel may decide not to set up operations there or it may have to re-locate,” added Dr Ball.

For island states like Tuvalu, Vanuatu and Kiribati, the highest point of some of their islands is only 10m above sea level.

Moreover, increased salinity from rising sea levels has destroyed arable lands along the coast. As a result, many of these islanders are now heading towards the shores of Australia and New Zealand.

While South-east Asia has yet to experience a flow of “environmental refugees” said Dr Ball, the difference between Australia and South-east Asian countries, is that “Australia can accommodate an inward movement of its population” — even though this will be a momentous strain on its scarce water resources — but not so for South-east Asian countries.

The solution?

More active citizenry, said the panel which included Mr Mohamed Jawhar Hassan, chairman of the Institute for Strategic and International Studies in Malaysia and Mr Ma Zhengang, president of the China Institute of International Studies and Professor Simon Tay, SIIA’s chairman.

Mr Jawhar said: “The environment is one area, I think, where active citizenry is most effective — as has been the case with Malaysia. It’s important to make your voices heard and to get that message to the political elite.

“Climate change is everyone’s problem — so join an NGO or start something even if civil society in your country is not very strong. ”

Indeed, according to Prof Tay, dialogue and co-operation has been key to solving the recent haze problem among Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia.

This is made possible not only through inter-government talks, but also through efforts from non-government organisations, such as the World Wildlife Fund, Indonesia’s Centre for Strategic and International St udies and SIIA.

These include putting pressure on big commercial plantations to use machinery instead of resorting to slash and burn.

If that fails, NGOs will report these companies to the authorities or, in some cases, file a lawsuit against these companies.