From energy efficiency to war: thinktank sees 2030 climate future

Yahoo News 13 Oct 08;

The challenge posed by climate change could be resolved by a peaceful switch to a low-carbon economy, or alternatively inflict stresses that could include war and desertification of swathes of the US and Australia, a thinktank said on Monday.

The provocative report is published by a British NGO, Forum for the Future, which carries out strategic analysis on sustainable development on behalf of business.

It sketches a wide range of social consequences from today's global warming crisis, derived from published studies and consultations with more than 60 climate-change specialists. It is published in collaboration with the technology giant HP.

"What we do now could determine the fate of billions of people. These could be the most important years in history," said Peter Madden, Forum for the Future's chief executive, explaining the point of the document.

The study, "Climate Futures," sees five possible scenarios for 2030:

-- ENERGY EFFICIENCY: A swift, peaceful transition to a consumerist economy where heat-trapping carbon emissions are low.

"Artificially-grown flesh feeds hundreds of millions, supercomputers advise governments, and eco-concrete walls protect the USA's eastern seaboard, generating power from the waves and tides," the report suggests.

-- SERVICE TRANSFORMATION: Carbon pollution has become so dangerous that a hefty price is imposed on emissions. People share cars, washing machines and other products, and transport has become so expensive that international sports events are staged virtually, in cyber-space.

"NATO is ready to go to war if necessary to enforce the 2020 Beijing Climate Change Agreement, and water shortages have already forced the abandonment of Central Australia and Oklahoma," Forum for the Future says. "Booming mega-cities are only just managing to cope and fuel poverty is a huge problem."

-- REDEFINING PROGRESS: After a decade-long global depression following the 2008 crash, governments keep a tight regulatory hand on the economy and encourage citizens to put greater priority on quality of life than making money.

"Countries compete to score highest in the World Bank's Wellbeing Index and the EU (European Union) Working Time directive sets a limit of 27.5 hours a week," the report suggests.

"The trend is towards economic resilience and simpler, more sustainable lives, but 'free-riders' plunder resources, several big cities have set up as 'havens of real capitalism' and some governments are aggressively pro-growth."

-- ENVIRONMENTAL WAR ECONOMY: Efforts to craft a post-Kyoto Protocol climate pact beyond 2012 break down.

The treaty is signed only in 2017, and lost time and worsening climate problems force governments to take extraordinary measures, placing their economies on a war footing to tackle greenhouse-gas emissions.

"Civil liberties have been stripped away. You need a licence to have children in some countries, and if you go over your household energy quota the carbon monitor will turn off your appliances," this scenario suggests.

"Climate refugees from Bangladesh and the Pacific islands make up 18 percent of New Zealand's population and are expected to boost Antarctica's population to 3.5 million by 2040."

-- PROTECTIONIST WORLD: A post-Kyoto deal for 2012 collapses amid accusations of cheating and undeclared power stations. Countries launch go-it-alone strategies and fight wars over scarce resources. Mercenaries, fighting for nations and businesses, wage war over oil, gas and gold in the thawing Northwest Passage in the Arctic.

"Violent factions exploit the chaos to launch devastating bio-chemical attacks," says this grim scenario.

"Cyber-terrorists operating from safe havens in failed states have already bankrupted two multinationals. Action to mitigate climate change is all but abandoned."

Exotic climate study sees refugees in Antarctica
Alister Doyle, Reuters 12 Oct 08;

OSLO (Reuters) - Refugees are moving to Antarctica by 2030, the Olympics are held only in cyberspace and central Australia has been abandoned as too dry, according to exotic scenarios for climate change on Monday.

British-based Forum for the Future, a charitable think-tank, and researchers from Hewlett-Packard Labs, said they wanted to stir debate about how to avert the worst effects of global warming by presenting a radical set of possible futures.

"Climate change will affect the economy at least as much as the 'credit crunch'," their 76-page report study said.

The scenarios range from a shift to greater energy efficiency, where desalination plants run on solar power help turn the Sahara green, to one where refugees are moving to Antarctica because of rising temperatures.

"We still have the chance to alter the future," Peter Madden, head of the Forum, told Reuters. "This is what the world could be like and some of these options are not very pleasant."

Madden said that most reports about climate change focused on scientific findings about carbon dioxide emissions, mainly from burning fossil fuels, without taking account of psychological or social responses.

"Historians of the future may look back on these as the 'climate change years'," he said. "They will either look back on our generation as heroes or view us with incomprehension and disgust -- as now we look back on those who allowed slavery."

He said the crystal ball survey did not seek to project what was most likely to happen, just some of the possibilities.

HOTTER

It gave the following five scenarios:

EFFICIENCY FIRST - Technological innovation will help solve climate change and spur strong growth and consumerism. The Sahara is green and the eastern seaboard of the United States, for instance, is "protected by eco-concrete wall that generate power from waves and tidal surges."

SERVICE TRANSFORMATION - Sky-high prices for emitting carbon dioxide have led to a shift to a service-based economy. People no longer own cars but use bicycles. "Central Australia and Oklahoma have been abandoned due to water shortages. Athletes stay at home in the world's first virtual Olympics, competing against each other in virtual space with billions of spectators."

REDEFINING PROGRESSS - A global depression from 2009-18 forces people into more modest lifestyles and focus on well-being and quality of life. In the United States, people "do 25 hours of work a week and up to 10 hours voluntary work."

ENVIRONMENTAL WAR ECONOMY - The world has failed to act on climate change, world trade has collapsed after oil prices break through $400 a barrel. Electrical appliances get automatically turned off when households exceed energy quotas. Refugees are moving to Antarctica, with the population set to reach 3.5 million people by 2040.

PROTECTIONIST WORLD - Globalization is in retreat after a poorly coordinated response to climate change. Morocco has been asked to join the European Union in exchange for exclusive access to solar energy supplies until 2050.

(Editing by Richard Balmforth)