Maldives and rising sea levels: An uncertain fate

Sam Bateman, Straits Times 27 Dec 08;

MOHAMED 'Anni' Nasheed, the new President of the Maldives, has said his government will start saving to buy a new homeland in case global warming and sea level rise cause the Maldives to disappear. The small Indian Ocean country comprises numerous atolls and small islands, which on average are only about 1.5m above sea level. If the predictions of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are correct and sea levels rise by up to 58cm by 2100, significant parts of the Maldives could be submerged.

International lawyers are now consumed by the legal implications of a sovereign state disappearing beneath the sea. Not everyone agrees with the IPCC's predictions, but if it is correct, will the affected country be gone for good? Can it - and how would it - go about securing another homeland? Can it retain statehood? And what would be the legal status of the submerged reefs remaining after land areas of the Maldives disappear?

Similar problems could confront low-lying atoll countries elsewhere, including Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands in the Pacific.

The Maldives is an archipelagic state. Its large exclusive economic zone (EEZ) is rich in marine resources. Apart from fish, tourism is the major income earner for the Maldives. Even if its land area were to disappear, large areas of submerged reefs would remain that would still have potential for resource exploitation and tourism. Under international law, sovereignty over land is necessary to generate sovereign rights at sea. The legal dictum is that 'the land dominates the sea'.

If it does occur, sea level rise will proceed progressively. Some of the outermost islands and reefs now used as base points for the Maldives' archipelagic baselines might disappear. Should that happen, the Maldives would either have to redraw its baselines - and thus lose some of its EEZ - or build up key islands with reclamation works and other structures. While it is not acceptable in international law to turn a 'rock' into an 'island' with man-made structures, it is a different situation if the structures are built to maintain or protect an existing island.

By 2100, if the IPCC's predictions were correct, some of the present land area of the Maldives would indeed be submerged. However, it might still be possible to preserve most, if not all, of the Maldives' present archipelagic nature by judicious use of reclamation works and other man-made structures. The country would still have sovereign rights over its rich EEZ, although it would be more vulnerable to storms and tsunamis.

In the longer term, if sea level rise continued past 2100, or if the rise were greater than the IPCC predicts, all present land areas of the Maldives might disappear. However, there could still be a large EEZ, with the Maldives retaining sovereign rights by reclaiming numerous islands and building structures on them, including possibly port facilities and tourist resorts. As Hollywood might have it, we could have a form of Waterworld.

It may be difficult over the longer term to support the current population of the Maldives of nearly 400,000. The people would still have income from the EEZ and tourism, but many would have to live elsewhere. President Nasheed did not speculate on the status of the land his fund might buy to provide an alternative home for his people, but he cannot expect sovereignty. No other country is likely to cede any territorial sovereignty over land purchased by the Maldives.

Australia is often mentioned as a country where the Maldives might purchase land. However, while Australia might grant civil title over land, this would not be sovereignty. Special joint citizenship arrangements would need to be developed for the Maldivians. Their situation might be similar to the Cocos and Norfolk islanders, both of whom have a degree of independence as residents of self-governing territories of Australia. The Maldivians might be able to have dual nationality while living within the community of the host state.

The problems involved in relocating some of the current population of the Maldives are not impossible to solve. And they might not have difficulty in retaining statehood even over the longer term. The greatest problem will be finding a suitable tract of land in Australia or elsewhere; but if President Nasheed's fund grows large enough, even that might not be insurmountable.

In the longer term, sea level rise might become a security threat, though at present it has low priority. Other non-traditional security threats, such as food security, disease, loss of fish stocks, energy security, natural disasters and poverty, are clear and present dangers that rate more highly and require more urgent attention.

The adverse consequences of sea level rise will emerge slowly. Even with the IPCC's worst-case scenario, much of the land area of the Maldives will still be above water in 2100. There is time, therefore, for effective policies to be developed to manage the phenomenon. It will not occur overnight with massive disruption of population and mass flows of people from the affected areas to elsewhere.

Meanwhile, many PhDs in international law will be written on the legal implications of sea level rise.

The writer is a Senior Fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University.