Mapping Southeast Asia’s vulnerability to climate change

Imelda V. Abaño, The Business Mirror 23 Feb 09;

THERE is mounting evidence that climate-related disaster events are having an impact on developing countries in Southeast Asia, home to more than 570 million people. While researchers and scientists reveal that climate change is set to reverse decades of social and economic progress, the international climate change spotlight has not yet fallen on Southeast Asia as attention is focused more on the industrializing giants China, India and Brazil.

Multiple stresses make most of Southeast Asian countries highly vulnerable to environmental changes, and climate change is likely to increase this vulnerability. These impacts include drought, sea-level rise, cyclones, desertification, deforestation, forest degradation, coral bleaching, the spread of diseases and impacts on food security.

“Millions of people in the region tend to suffer most from the catastrophic impacts of global warming coupled with recurring food, oil and financial crisis,” said Herminia Francisco, director of the Singapore-based Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (Eepsea).

Typically, according to Francisco, these will be the poorest people and the most vulnerable communities who may have little information about impending hazards and are often the least able to rebuild their lives and livelihoods after having suffered a setback.

“The threats posed by climate change are real and it is widely recognized that developing countries need help to prepare for the disasters that climate change is likely to bring. Some countries are already experiencing climate change-related catastrophes,” Francisco said.

The Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Laos, Sumatra and Indonesia are among the countries identified as climate change “hotspots”—countries particularly vulnerable to some of the worst manifestations of climate change, such as the increase in extreme drought, flooding, sea-level rise, landslide and cyclones expected in the coming decades. This, according to a new report of Eepsea funded by Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC), an international organization public corporation created in 1970 to support research in developing countries.

The report titled, “Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia” conducted by Francisco and economist Arief Anshory Yusuf from Indonesia, is expected to be highly valuable to policymakers, as well as external donors in better targeting their support on climate-change initiatives in the region.

“Climate change will greatly complicate efforts to manage political, social, demographic, economic and security challenges in Southeast Asia. IDRC is embarking on a research program on climate change in the region to guide and assist policymakers and donors in framing their adaptation and mitigation actions,” said Richard Fuchs, IDRC regional director for Southeast and East Asia.

Fuchs told the BusinessMirror this vulnerability assessment is an essential step to better understand the potential impacts of climate change on the region, and move toward more effective and adaptive management.

The report, inspired by the IDRC’s series of climate-change workshops for the media, policy-makers and researchers held last year, will be launched on March 6 at the Manila Golf Club in Makati. It will also be launched in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia.

To draw up the climate-change map report, Fuchs said the authors averaged three factors, namely, normalized indicators of exposure (multiple hazard risk exposure), sensitivity (human and ecological), and adaptive capacity.

According to the report, the Philippines, unlike other countries in Southeast Asia, is not only exposed to tropical cyclones, especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country, but also to many other climate-related hazards, especially floods (such as in Central Luzon and Southern Mindanao), landslides (due to the terrain of the country) and droughts.

The National Capital Region (NCR), Southern Luzon, Bicol region and the northern regions of Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon and Cordillera Administrative Region were found to be the most vulnerable regions in the Philippines susceptible to multiple climate hazards, especially cyclones and floods.

Francisco explained that the results of their study did not come to them as a surprise, as the Philippines’ vulnerability to climate change due the number of tropical cyclones had long been a “commonly held suspicion.” State weather forecasters say the country is hit by about 20 to 22 typhoons annually.

However, while the entire stretch of the Philippine territory has been considered prone to changes in climate, it is not the most vulnerable in the region. Jakarta in Indonesia came out as the top most vulnerable region in Southeast Asia. Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index.

“This is because this district is the intersection of all the climate-related hazards, except tropical cyclones. It is frequently exposed to regular flooding but, most important, it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely populated regions in Southeast Asia,” the report said.

The study also reveals that Kelantah and Sabah in Malaysia, Vietnam’s Mekong River Delta, Cambodia, North and East Laos and Bangkok are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

The results were drawn up by considering each area’s exposure to disasters and its ability to adapt to such threats, and comparing those findings with the vulnerability assessment framework of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

“The most effective interventions to reduce vulnerability are to strengthen the response capacity of the government institutions and to empower local communities in mitigation and adaptation response strategies,” Francisco said.