Population to cross 9 billion in 2050

Straits Times 12 Mar 09;

Most of the additional 2.3b people will be from the developing countries
UNITED NATIONS: The world population is projected to exceed nine billion in 2050, up from 6.8 billion this year, according to United Nations estimates released yesterday.

Most of the additional 2.3 billion people will swell the population of the developing world, estimated to soar from 5.6 billion this year to 7.9 billion in 2050.

The 2008 Revision of the official UN population projections, however, forecasted minimal change in the population of the more developed nations, which should rise from 1.23 billion to 1.28 billion during the same period.

That figure would have in fact dipped to 1.15 billion without the projected net migration from developing countries, expected to average 2.4 million people annually from this year to 2050, it noted. The United States, Canada, Britain, Spain, Italy, Germany, Australia and France are likely to be the major net receivers of foreign migrants during this period.

Major countries of net emigration are expected to be Mexico, China, India, the Philippines and Pakistan.

Already, from 2005 to 2010, net migration will have more than doubled the contribution of natural increase (births minus deaths) to population growth in Singapore and seven other countries and regions: Belgium, Macau, Czech Republic, Luxembourg, Qatar, Slovenia and Spain.

The population of the 49 least developed nations is meanwhile slated to double from 0.84 billion this year to 1.7 billion in 2050. Growth in the rest of the Third World is estimated to be less rapid, from 4.8 billion to 6.2 billion.

But the increase in population will coincide with reduced fertility, the report said. From 2.56 children per woman in 2005 to 2010, fertility rates will fall to 2.02 children per woman in 2045 to 2050.

The data, prepared by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, also shows a corresponding trend of population ageing.

In the more developed countries, 22 per cent of people are already 60 and over and that proportion is expected to reach 33 per cent in 2050. By then, the number of older people in the developed world is expected to be more than twice that of children.

By contrast, just 9 per cent of the population of developing countries today is aged 60 or over but the proportion will more than double by 2050 to reach 20 per cent.

The study incorporated findings of the most up-to-date national population censuses and of several specialised population surveys conducted around the world.

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

Full press release with key findings (PDF) and online data on the UN website