China study urges greenhouse gas caps, peak in 2030

Chris Buckley, Reuters 17 Aug 09;

BEIJING (Reuters) - China should set firm targets to limit greenhouse gas emissions so they peak around 2030, a study by some of the nation's top climate change policy advisers has proposed ahead of contentious talks on a new global warming pact.

The call for "quantified targets" to cap greenhouse gas pollution marks a high-level public departure from China's reluctance to spell out a proposed peak and date for it.

"By 2008 China had become the world's biggest national emitter of greenhouse gases and faces unprecedented challenges," says the preface of the 900-page report, setting aside China's reluctance to say it has passed the United States as the top emitter of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas from burning coal, gas and oil.

"As soon as possible, study and draft relative and (then) absolute targets to cap the total volume of carbon dioxide emissions," says the preface of the report, obtained by Reuters.

"Establishing and acting on quantified targets and corresponding policies to address climate change in the medium to long-term is already a matter of great urgency."

The "2050 China Energy and C02 Emissions Report" proposes that, with the right policies, emissions growth could slow by 2020, with levels peaking around 2030.

If China can reach these goals, by 2050 its carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel "could fall to the same emissions levels as in 2005 or even lower," the report says.

The report in Chinese is on open sale and builds on earlier research exploring pathways to a "low-carbon" economy. It adds to recent signals that Beijing wants to play an active role in seeking agreement for a new international climate change pact.

With its fast-rising greenhouse gas emissions, China's stance will be crucial in efforts to create a successor to the current Kyoto Protocol, which expires at the end of 2012.

Western nations have pressed Beijing to set specific goals on slowing emissions growth in coming years, leading to early cuts in absolute volumes as part of a new pact governments hope to seal in Copenhagen by the end of 2009.

Under current treaties, China and other developing countries need not shoulder the quantified limits on emissions that rich economies must take on.

Beijing has said that principle must not change and resisted specifying when its emissions may peak, pointing out its average emissions per person remain much lower than the average in rich nations.

But the airing of proposals for emissions caps comes after signs that Beijing has become more open to stronger steps against global warming as negotiators struggle to build agreement before Copenhagen.

"This report is intended to advise the government what its options are," said Deborah Seligsohn, China Program Director with the World Resources Institute, a Washington-based organization promoting policies to fight global warming.

"I think they're making a pretty concentrated push to move the negotiations forward," said Seligsohn.

Early this month, China's ambassador to the climate talks, Yu Qingtai, said his government wanted to curb greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible.

Next week, the Standing Committee of China's parliament -- a Communist Party-controlled body that echoes government priorities -- will consider a separate report on climate change policy and a resolution on the issue, the Xinhua news agency said.

NOT A CONCRETE POLICY BLUEPRINT

The dozens of contributors to the "2050 China Energy" report included climate policy experts from Chinese state think-tanks, including the Energy Research Institute and the State Council Development Research Center, which advises the cabinet.

Participating scholars stressed that the study was a research exercise, not a definitive policy blueprint, and there was no suggestion that the senior officials listed as its advisers endorsed its specific proposals for targets and a 2030 peak.

But the proposals have been circulated among officials and were echoed in a cabinet meeting last week that urged making "controlling greenhouse gas emissions" an important part of development plans, said an expert familiar with the project, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The report spells out possibly disastrous consequences of global warming, as growing amounts of human-caused greenhouse gases retain more of the sun's energy in the atmosphere.

"The potential threat to China from climate change exists and it is massive," states the report, warning of worsening droughts and floods, retreating glaciers, shrinking farm productivity and threats to water supplies for the country of 1.3 billion people.

To curb emissions, China could push financial steps and price reforms to favor clean energy, a "carbon tax" on fossil fuels and cautious steps toward a "cap-and-trade" system for buying and selling emissions rights, says the report.

Beijing may seek to use such domestic initiatives to show other nations it is serious about fighting global warming, even if the steps are not directly included in any international pact.

"The problem now is not China making its own domestic commitments and targets, it's how we treat those commitments internationally," Dai Yande, a deputy director of the Energy Research Institute and one the report's organizers, told Reuters.

A graphic on China's emissions scenarios

(Editing by Ken Wills and Dean Yates)

FACTBOX: China climate change report sets out options
Reuters 17 Aug 09;

BEIJING (Reuters) - A new study by some of China's top climate change policy advisers has urged the government to set firm targets to curb greenhouse gas emissions so they peak around 2030.

Following are some of the key proposals of that study, "2050 China Energy and C02 Emissions Report."

SETTING GREENHOUSE GAS TARGETS

The study proposes setting relative and then absolute targets for limiting China's emissions of the greenhouse gases from human activities that are stoking global warming. The "relative" targets could involve carbon intensity goals, curbing the amount of emissions needed to create each unit of economic worth.

Later, it says, the government could apply absolute caps on emissions, also allowing for the emergence of a "cap-and-trade" market so companies could buy and sell emissions rights, domestically and internationally.

Movement to such a carbon-trading market should be cautious, the study says. "Once allocation of pollution rights is handed to the government, that may create room for rent-seeking, so ultimately it becomes impossible to effectively allocate rights."

CARBON TAXES

The report devotes a chapter to the potential benefits and costs of a "carbon tax." Such a tax, applied to fossil fuels such as coal, gas and oil, "would play a clear role in curtailing our country's future carbon dioxide emissions."

A tax of 100 yuan ($14.6) on every metric ton of carbon from 2010, which would rise to 200 yuan on every metric ton in 2030, could by 2030 reduce emissions by up 24 percent less than they would have been under a "business as usual" scenario.

ENERGY MARKET AND FINANCIAL REFORMS

The study examines proposals to deepen market reforms of the energy sector and force coal-users to pay more for the estimated environmental costs. It also encourages reforms to encourage more investment and private capital in clean energy.

EMISSIONS SCENARIOS

In the study, Jiang Kejun of the Energy Research Institute says that if China continues a "business as usual" approach focused on economic growth and does little to curb emissions, its carbon dioxide output from fossil fuel alone could peak at the equivalent of 3.5 billion metric tons of pure carbon a year by 2040. That does not include greenhouse gas emissions from other sources, such as livestock and land-use changes.

If China adopts policies to promote "low-carbon development," emissions could reach 2.4 billion metric tons of carbon a year by 2050.

Under an "enhanced low carbon scenario" of even more stringent steps, they could reach a maximum of 2.2 billion metric tons a year in 2030 and fall to 1.4 billion metric tons in 2050.

"An enhanced low-carbon growth strategy would be difficult but doable," Jiang told Reuters.

The U.S. Oak Ridge National Laboratory has estimated China emitted 1.8 billion metric tons of carbon from burning fossil fuels in 2007, compared with 1.6 billion metric tons from the United States. (Emissions are also measured in CO2, with each metric ton of carbon equal to 3.67 metric tons of CO2).

(Reporting by Chris Buckley; Editing by Ken Wills and Dean Yates)