Closing the Science Gaps on What is Happening to the World's Oceans and Seas

UN Experts' Report to Governments Charts Ways Forward
UNEP 31 Aug 09;

New York/Nairobi/Paris, 31 August 2009 - The world's oceans and seas-covering 70 per cent of the planet - may soon be subject to the same kind of systematic scientific scrutiny as the globe's land surface.

Governments are meeting today to consider a series of options and recommendations on establishing just such a monitoring process. It is aimed at plugging significant and serious knowledge gaps that are undermining humanity's ability to better manage a wealth of natural and nature-based marine resources.

If governments give the process the green light, the first globally integrated oceans assessment could be delivered under the auspices of the United Nations by 2014.

Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary General and UNEP Executive Director, said: "The marine environment is facing a multiplicity of challenges. Some, such as the decline in fish stocks and land-based sources of pollution are persistent ones. Others, from the emergence of 'dead zones' and the impacts of climate change including acidification are rapidly emerging ones. A systematic assessment process is long overdue. This meeting in New York represents a tremendous opportunity for governments to put the best marine science at their service in order to make the best management choices over the coming years and decades."

"Significantly, a very real concern has been acknowledged today with the launch of the Assessment of Assessments report - the first ever comprehensive overview of the marine assessment landscape - which also considers socio-economic factors. The report is a clear signal that the world needs a more inclusive approach on its oceans and resources. It provides a framework and options for how this can be done," said Mr. Koïchiro Matsuura, Director-General of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization.

Despite the central role oceans play in the economic, environmental and social affairs of the planet's 6.7 billion inhabitants, significant gaps exist in our understanding and management of the complex processes at work - from the global climate system, to the water cycle and circulation of nutrients, to changes affecting marine habitats.

In addition, the vastness of the world's oceans have for far too long been perceived as impervious and indestructible to human impact.

The clearing of mangroves and coastal wetlands, the over-exploitation of fish stocks, rising tides of pollution, among many other challenges, are affecting the marine environment's ability to sustain livelihoods and life itself.

Meanwhile, climbing concentrations of greenhouse gases - equal to a third or more of annual carbon dioxide emissions - are being absorbed, as well as untold amounts of heavy metals, triggering mounting concern over the marine food chain.

To deal with this situation, improved monitoring and observation practices, regular assessments to provide a deeper understanding of the status and trends of environmental changes, and the know-how and ability to prevent, mitigate and adapt to these changes are urgently required.

That is why governments - at the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) and, subsequently, the UN General Assembly in 2005 - recommended that a regular UN process for the global reporting and assessment of the state of the marine environment, including its socio-economic aspects, be initiated. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC-UNESCO) were asked to serve as the lead agencies in this work.

The initial phase of the process came to be known as the "Assessment of Assessments". Under it, an Expert Group set up in 2006 examined various existing marine assessments, evaluating factors central to the influence of assessments, such as scientific credibility, policy relevance and legitimacy, which also helped identify best practices; thematic, geographic or data gaps, scientific uncertainties, as well as research and capacity-building needs, particularly in the developing world.

The Group will today present their findings to a special Working Group of the UN General Assembly, which will have before it a set of options and recommendations for governments to consider, on ways to move the envisioned "Regular Process" forward. These include clear formulations of the overall objective, the products to be delivered in the first five years of the process, its functionality and funding.

If established, the Regular Process for the reporting and assessment of the state of the marine environment will "serve as the mechanism to keep the world's oceans and seas under continuing review by providing regular assessments at global and supra-regional levels."

The Working Group will also have before it a set of organizational options. These deal with the relationship of the "Regular Process" to the UN at the intergovernmental level; and the establishment of a management oversight body, a new expert group, and secretariat support mechanisms. The report provides a set of financing options which could average between $4 million and $5.6 million a year.

The GA Working Group was established to recommend a course of action on the Regular Process to the General Assembly at its sixty-fourth session in late 2009.

U.N. talks hope to improve climate data and aid poor
Alister Doyle and Laura MacInnis, Reuters 31 Aug 09;

GENEVA (Reuters) - Delegates from 150 nations met in Geneva on Monday to try to plug gaps in climate information to help the world cope with global warming and threats like floods, wildfires and rising sea levels.

The August 31-September 4 World Climate Conference aims to improve everything from weather monitoring to distributing forecasts, especially to help poor nations adapt in areas such as health, agriculture, fisheries, transport, tourism and energy.

"There's a major gap: how can we better link decision-making with information?" Michel Jarraud, secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization which is a leading organizer of the talks, told a news conference.

"What we need is a formal system that all people can trust to access vital information that can save their lives and protect property and economies," he said of the planned "Global Framework for Climate Services" to be agreed in Geneva.

People living on the coast, for instance, are sometimes not alerted in time to a looming storm. Cyclone Nargis killed about 84,000 people in May in Myanmar.

In the longer term, shifts in monsoon rains could affect where a company decides to site a hydro-power dam. Better understanding of ice sheets in Antarctica or Greenland could help predict sea level rise and risks of coastal floods.

"It's not only governments, it's the private sector, it's individuals, it's farmers -- everyone who has to make a decision that is affected by the climate," Jarraud said of the spinoffs of the planned framework.

The conference, of about 2,500 delegates with leaders from about 20 nations and ministers from 80 attending the final two days, is due to agree to set up the framework and a task force to work out details.

HURRICANES

Better advance warning of disasters like hurricanes has already helped cut the number of people killed in climate-related disasters to 220,000 in the decade to 2005, from 2.66 million in the decade to 1965, U.N. data show.

But the number of weather-related disasters rose almost tenfold and economic losses surged 50-fold in the same period, it said. Damaging wildfires, such as those in California now, are projected to become more frequent with rising temperatures.

Delegates said most of those taking part in the talks were scientists and big disputes were unlikely.

"There is an expectation that we are closely aligned -- everybody wins if we move forward on this," said Sherburne Abbott, associate director for environment at the White House.

She told Reuters that a lot could be achieved with available resources, rather than new cash. Jarraud also said the initiative would not lead to the creation of a new U.N. agency.

Among people left out, farmers in the Horn of Africa were not told of a widely predicted drought in 2006, said Gro Harlem Brundtland, a special envoy for U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon at the conference.

If they had been alerted, they could have slaughtered and sold their animals earlier, rather than see them starve to death. "It is always the poor who are left out of the information stream," she said.

FACTBOX: Climate risks, and how to limit damage
Reuters 31 Aug 09;

(Reuters) - A 150-nation conference in Geneva is looking at ways to improve climate information to help people cope with ever more droughts, floods, sandstorms and rising sea levels projected this century.

The August 31-September 4 talks are to agree a "Global Framework for Climate Services" that will improve information in areas ranging from health to energy.

Among examples of risks and solutions from around the world given by U.N. agencies:

DISASTER RISKS

Between 1991 and 2005, natural disasters killed 960,000 people and economic losses totaled $1.19 trillion. Nine out of 10 natural disasters in the past 50 years have been caused by extreme weather and climate events.

-- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) supplies early warnings of disasters including cyclones and dust storms. Vietnam is replanting mangroves along the Mekong River delta to help protect low-lying areas from floods as seas rise.

HUMAN HEALTH

Water-borne diseases may become more frequent because of climate change -- for instance, warmer oceans can lead to toxic algal blooms and cholera epidemics. A heatwave in Europe in 2003 caused 70,000 more deaths than normal.

-- Botswana is using seasonal rain forecasts to help predict malaria outbreaks. The forecasts give time to deploy resources against mosquitoes and provide nets to keep the insects at bay.

TRANSPORT AND TOURISM

Tourism generated $735 billion in revenue in 2006, of which $221 billion was in developing nations. Projected sea level rise this century would worsen coastal erosion and lead to the loss of beaches on tropical islands that depend on tourists.

-- Some ski resorts are using temperature projections for coming decades to site ski lifts. In Vermont, one ski resort has built a reservoir to feed water to snow-making machines.

MANAGING WATER

More than 1 billion people worldwide lack access to clean water. Drought and desertification worldwide threaten the livelihoods of 1.2 billion people.

-- Countries in the Himalayas are working to assess risks of floods from lakes, now held in behind glaciers. A thaw of the glaciers could lead to an "outburst flood."

ENERGY

In 2005 hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroyed more than 100 offshore oil and gas platforms off the United States. Energy industry losses from hurricanes in 2005 were estimated at $15 billion.

-- Developing countries such as India and Mali are turning to jatropha, which grows with little rain on wasteland and does not compete with crops. Jatropha can be burned as fuel, helps store carbon in the ground and slows desertification.

SECURING FOOD SUPPLIES

Climate change will disrupt farming and fishing just as the world population rises to a projected 9 billion by 2050 from more than 6 billion now.

-- Farmers in the Ningxia region of China are trying to work out better ways to allocate water during droughts and think how crops will change in the next 70 years.

UN meet aims to boost global network against climate change
Peter Capella Yahoo News 31 Aug 09;

GENEVA (AFP) – Meteorologists opened the World Climate Conference on Monday in what a US official called a "critical" attempt to share information globally and help communities worldwide adapt to climate change.

Some 2,500 experts gathered against the backdrop of troubled negotiations to strike a global agreement on climate change at another conference in Copenhagen in December, which are marked by a rift between rich and poor nations.

The Geneva conference would discuss how to boost long-term weather and climate forecasting, especially in Africa and developing nations, said Michel Jarraud, director general of the UN's World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

"We have now come to the point that we feel there is a major gap that needs to be filled," he told journalists.

The proposed "Global Framework for Climate Services" under discussion in Geneva could shape decisions on water, agriculture, fisheries, health, forestry, transport, tourism, energy, and preparations for natural disasters.

It would largely build on successful, existing international cooperation on weather forecasting to expand the scope of climate predictions, Jarraud said.

Instead of looking at timescales of days and sometimes weeks ahead, the aim was to "extend the window" and produce forecasts that look seasons and even decades ahead, a US weather official explained.

The Geneva conference is not part of the Copenhagen process, which includes talks on steps to help countries prevent or adapt to the impact of more extreme weather conditions produced by global warming, including finance for poor nations.

But officials said that by allowing all countries to access information that would help them assess and adapt to changing temperatures, humidity levels, storm and wind patterns, it would provide a key building block.

The outcome of the five-day meeting was "critical to coping with climate variability," White House associate director for environment Sherburne Abbott told reporters in Geneva.

After years of scepticism on climate change under the administration of former president George W. Bush, the United States had turned up with a 50-strong delegation.

And they were intent on "sharing a large amount of information with the developing world," Abbott said.

During the conference scientists will take the opportunity to swap the latest research on issues such as the warming of the Arctic Circle and the potential social and economic impacts of climate change.

The WMO has warned that global warming is transforming thinking on issues such as flood defences, farming or power generation, which have often relied on experience of past weather patterns and sea levels.

"Now we need to anticipate change," said Jarraud before the conference. "We can no longer base ourselves on the past to take decisions for the future."

The proposed framework is also aimed at improving forecasts of localised effects that can be much harsher than those predicted at a national or global level, especially in mountain and coastal areas.

About 15 heads of state or government mainly from from African, European and island states, as well as several dozen ministers, are due to attend from Thursday, led by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Chinese Vice Premier Hui Liangyu.

The United Nations has only held two World Climate Conferences before, the last of which was 19 years ago.

The first, in 1979, was credited with pinpointing a problem with carbon build-ups in the earth's atmosphere and setting in motion a global approach to climate research.

And that ultimately produced the panel of international scientists which provided groundbreaking scientific evidence of climate change -- and of humanity's influence on global warming.

UN seeks better data on hurricanes, droughts
Writer Alexander G. Higgins, Associated Press Yahoo News 31 Aug 09;

GENEVA – The world needs more innovative projects - like putting weather stations on cellular phone towers across Africa - to help it better predict the increased hurricanes, tsunamis, droughts and floods that climate change will bring, Kofi Annan said Monday.

The former U.N. chief was referring to a new system that brings more accurate weather information to farmers and fishermen in five African nations.

"We cannot hope to manage climate change unless we measure it accurately," Annan told 1,500 officials, diplomats and scientists as a weeklong U.N. meeting opened on adapting to climate change.

The World Climate Conference in Geneva is seeking to help developing countries generate better data on their own changing climates and share that information with other countries.

This week's meeting will not discuss the controversial issue of cutting carbon emissions — those talks will come in Copenhagen, Denmark, in December.

In a keynote speech, Annan said wealthy countries must provide large amounts of money, knowledge and equipment to the developing world. He suggested a model should be the project announced in June by his Global Humanitarian Forum to install automated weather stations on mobile phone towers across Africa.

Weather data will be fed into national — and global — networks and sent back to farmers, fishermen and others on Africa's rapidly expanding cell phone system, alerting "them to storms which threaten crops, livestock and lives," Annan said.

Annan's project began with the installation of 19 stations in East Africa's Lake Victoria region, taking advantage of the security, maintenance and electrical power already provided for the towers.

Phone towers in almost every part of Africa already greatly exceed the continent's traditional weather monitoring systems, Annan said.

The project, which will cost $9 million for complete coverage of Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi and Rwanda by 2012, has the backing of wireless equipment maker LM Ericsson and mobile company Zain. The long-range goal is to install 5,000 automatic weather stations on towers across Africa.

"Around the world, the costs for adapting to climate change will run to several tens of billions of U.S. dollars every year, with more than half of the expenditure being required in developing countries," said Swiss President Hans-Rudolf Merz.

Merz said better weather forecasts and hazard maps "could also prevent deaths and reduce the extent of the damage."

"What we need is a formal system that all people can trust to access vital information that can save their lives and protect property and economies," said Michel Jarraud, head of the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization.

He noted that hydrological networks in Africa are "totally insufficient" and that "many water basins are managed without any information about precipitation and runoff."

A large U.S. delegation is attending the conference, eager to highlight the new Obama administration's commitment to combatting climate change.

Jane Lubchenco, administrator of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said decision-makers need reliable information about the current and projected impacts of climate change but many countries lack even basic weather information.

The Geneva conference will set up a task force to determine what each country can do to create a global network that makes sure early warnings for tsunamis and hurricanes reach everyone.

Governments across the globe are facing a December deadline for separate U.N. talks aimed at forging a new accord to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on reducing greenhouse gases blamed for global warming and climate change.

Organizers of the Dec. 7-18 U.N. meeting in Copenhagen hope to reach an agreement on limiting the warming of the Earth's temperature to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above levels 150 years ago.

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Associated Press writers Eliane Engeler and Bradley S. Klapper contributed to this report.