Targets Demand Dogs Poor Nations' Steps To Cut CO2

David Fogarty and Deborah Zabarenko, PlanetArk 18 Sep 09;

SINGAPORE/WASHINGTON - In the game of climate poker, developing nations might feel they have the right cards on the table in U.N. talks after ramping up efforts to curb greenhouse gas output.

China, India, South Korea and other emerging economic powers have announced a series of measures this year to make their economies greener and limit the increase of carbon dioxide emissions from their farms, forests and factories.

The question is whether these domestic steps are enough to seal a new global climate deal, prompt rich nations to toughen their emissions reduction pledges and lead to billions in annual financing to help poorer countries fight global warming.

The measures, focusing on renewable energy and energy efficiency, have drawn international praise and helped strengthen the hand of developing nations in talks to try to agree on a replacement to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.

The U.N. hopes those talks will culminate in December in the Danish city of Copenhagen.

But some rich nations want more. Some in the U.S. Congress say China, now the world's top greenhouse gas polluter, and other big developing nations, must agree to binding emissions curbs. It comes down to trust and accountability.

U.S. Sen. John Kerry, who heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that will help to craft U.S. climate legislation, was encouraged by China's climate moves.

"I'm confident that China is prepared to take some steps that will be meaningful," Kerry told reporters on Tuesday, in advance of a flurry of global climate gatherings in the United States.

"I think the crucial question is, can we together, America and China, forge a partnership that's capable of acting boldly enough to prevent a climate catastrophe?" Kerry said.

China said it would unveil new plans to tackle global warming during a U.N. meeting later this month.

"GET REAL"

The U.N.'s top climate change official says it is not the time to be asking poorer nations to take on binding cuts.

"I'd say get real, quite honestly. We know that the bulk of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are there because of industrialized countries and that's why industrialized countries have to take responsibility and act first," said Yvo de Boer, head of the U.N.'s Climate Change Secretariat.

"China is setting targets already. It is setting targets for industrial energy efficiency, for renewable energy, for buildings efficiency, for sustainable cities," he told Reuters.

He also said it was "nonsense" to ask India, the world's fourth-largest emitter, to reduce its emissions at the same time as it fights poverty with increased development.

The Kyoto Protocol, whose first phase ends in 2012, requires only rich nations to limit greenhouse emissions.

The Copenhagen talks aim to draw up the outlines of an agreement that brings all nations, plus aviation and shipping, into the fight against climate change.

Without domestic efforts, there is no prospect for an effective global deal, Elliot Diringer of the Washington-based Pew Center on Global Climate Change, said by telephone.

"How serious the initiatives are and what they could actually deliver remain to be seen, but they certainly create a more positive momentum going into Copenhagen."

EMISSIONS SET TO SOAR

A major concern is the pace of emissions growth from the developing world, which is set to jump over the next 20 to 30 years. India said this month its greenhouse gas emissions could double or more than triple to 7.3 billion tonnes by 2031.

China's emissions are also expected to soar and a Beijing energy think-tank said this week China needs huge flows of clean technology investment to maintain hope of keeping emissions below levels that could help push the planet deep into dangerous global warming.

"In the short run, the developing nations are sitting ducks and they can do nothing to stop global warming," said climate policy expert Graciela Chichilnisky of Columbia University.

"In the long run ... developing nations are going to have the global warming issue by the tail."

How efforts to curb emissions will be funded has been a major sticking point in talks leading up to Copenhagen, with developing nations insisting the rich world should meet most of the cost of tackling a problem they caused in the first place.

Developing countries must use their pledged actions to try to win the best possible deal in Copenhagen, said Kim Carstensen, head of conservation group WWF's Global Climate Initiative.

"Most of what we see at the moment coming from these countries is what they intended to do in any case, funding or no funding," he said.

Instead, domestic steps should be part of the grand climate bargain to try to win the best possible funding for climate change mitigation and adaptation programs in poorer countries and the transfer of clean-energy technology.

"What we lack is some kind of agreement of how that translates into something international," he said of domestic steps.

For some nations, though, backing away from insisting on emissions targets is just too hard.

Any steps by big developing nations to curb emissions were positive and would help their negotiating positions, said Peter Backlund, a former science adviser in the Clinton White House.

"But there's still a kind of a superficial level where the line that's got to get passed to really make a huge difference is about setting a target," said Backlund, now director of research relations at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.

"Even though the steps themselves might be more consequential than a target, it's just a kind of superficial marker that's been established."

(Editing by Alex Richardson)

FACTBOX: Steps By Developing Nations To Fight Climate Change
David Fogarty, PlanetArk 18 Sep 09;

Major developing nations have announced steps over the past year to curb their growing greenhouse emissions as the world tries to negotiate a broader, and tougher, U.N. pact to slow the pace of climate change.

Rich nations have demanded China, India, Brazil and others to set binding emissions reduction targets to help seal a global climate deal in December, but poorer nations instead say they will take steps according to their abilities.

Following are actions or pledges by leading developing nations.

CHINA

-- Government aims to cut energy consumption per unit of GDP by about 20 percent by 2010 compared with 2005 levels, which it says will save more than 1.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) from being emitted.

-- Goal for renewable energy to account for 15 percent of total energy consumption by 2020. Wind power generation is forecast to rise to 100 gigawatts by 2020 and the official forecast is 1.8 gigawatts for solar, though this may be conservative.

-- Fuel economy standards among toughest in the world.

-- Top climate diplomat said last month he wants to see emissions peak as soon as possible and major Chinese study released in August called for the government to set firm targets to limit greenhouse gas emissions so that they peak around 2030.

INDIA

-- Government has pledged to ramp up investment in renewables and has set a solar power target of 20 gigawatts by 2020, up from a fraction of that now.

-- Aims for energy efficiency targets for more than 700 industrial operations as a step toward a national trading system centered on energy efficiency certificates.

-- Enforce energy efficiency for appliances, lighting, power distribution transformers.

-- Mandatory fuel efficiency standards for the transport sector by 2011.

MEXICO

-- Plans to put a detailed offer to cut growth of its greenhouse gas emissions at climate talks in Copenhagen in December.

-- President Felipe Calderon said in June Mexico would voluntarily cut 50 million tonnes of verifiable annual emissions by the end of his term in 2012 by bolstering efficiency in the state-run electricity and oil industries and improving rural land use. But CO2 emissions from the oil industry soared in 2008.

-- Agreed with the United States and Canada to build infrastructure to cooperate on CO2 emissions trading.

BRAZIL

-- To announce targets to substantially curb carbon emissions. Announcement to come before the Copenhagen meeting.

-- Last year presented a plan to slash Amazon deforestation in half over 10 years and thereby avoid the release of 4.8 billion tonnes of CO2.

-- Will announce on September 17 new restrictions on sugar cane planting and ban new cane mills in the Amazon rain forest and the Pantanal wetland area in the country's west.

SOUTH KOREA

-- Unveiled plan in August to opt for a voluntary 2020 reduction target. To decide on three options with a minus-four percent target by 2020 from 2005 levels being the most ambitious.

-- Also plans to trial emissions trading and tax incentives to achieve the 2020 goal, boost use of hybrid cars and renewable energy and increase nuclear power output as part of steps to spark a "green revolution" of the economy.

INDONESIA

-- Government-back National Climate Change Council in August set out roadmap for government to adopt measures in forestry, energy, transport and industry to slash greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

-- Created government-backed clean technology fund to ramp up renewable energy investment.

-- Government is a leading supporter of U.N.-backed forest preservation scheme called REDD that aims to reward developing nations with valuable carbon credits for saving forests.

-- Government has crash program to add 10,000 megawatts of power through coal and renewable energy such as geothermal power.

(Editing by Alex Richardson)

FACTBOX: Quotes On Steps By Developing Nations To Curb CO2
David Fogarty, PlanetArk 18 Sep 09;

Developing nations have stepped up pledges to curb growth in greenhouse gas emissions as U.N.-led talks trying to seal a broader pact on fighting climate change intensity ahead of a major climate meeting in December.

Following are comments from leading climate officials and policy analysts on how these steps will affect the tone of the talks and the outcome.

KIM CARSTENSEN, HEAD OF WWF'S GLOBAL CLIMATE INITIATIVE

"The good news is that these new developments show that a large number of developing countries are taking climate change seriously and are preparing themselves for significant action on the mitigation side and on the adaptation side.

"What we lack is some kind of agreement of how that translates into something international. And that I think is one of the technical problems in the negotiations, that these things have been put forward in a domestic political context for each of the countries, but they are not at the moment seen or defined as part of a negotiated international framework."

CHEW TAI SOO, SINGAPORE'S CLIMATE CHANGE AMBASSADOR

"The problem is not one of whether countries are doing enough, or doing anything. It's a question of the demand by developed countries that developing countries must commit themselves to these targets internationally. That is a difficult issue.

"China, India, domestically they are doing something. In China's case, even the U.S. admits that it is doing a lot. But these are domestic actions, domestic programs and the line that needs to be crossed will be whether the Chinese or other developing countries are prepared to commit themselves to what they are doing domestically, internationally."

MATTHEW CLARKE, SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AND POLITICAL

STUDIES, DEAKIN UNIVERSITY, MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA

"Developing countries are now seeing the value in engaging with climate change negotiations. As the most vulnerable in the long term, it is to their advantage to support an international climate change protocol.

"Until now, the reluctance of developing countries to commit to measures to reduce measures has allowed developed nations an excuse to also not commit: 'If they aren't going to reduce emissions, why should we'. Given the engagement of developing countries, this approach by wealthy countries will no longer suffice."

DIVYA REDDY, ANALYST IN EURASIA GROUP'S GLOBAL ENERGY &

NATURAL RESOURCES PRACTICE

"I think it makes it harder for the U.S. and other industrialized countries to say that they need to see action from China and India before acting themselves. People in the Obama administration and some in Congress have already backed away from that position, pointing to significant progress in China, in particular.

"But I don't think it's undermined pressure on developing countries to accept binding targets. I think that is something that will still come up in Copenhagen, even though they won't accept taking on mandatory targets.

"But it will increase pressure on industrialized countries to show that they too are willing to do more, especially in the 2020 timeframe and in helping developed countries by putting forward more money. And that's likely where talks will break down."

PETER BACKLUND, FORMER SCIENCE ADVISOR IN THE CLINTON

ADMINISTRATION

"All these things are very positive and it's accelerating and it's happening faster than I would have expected in the run-up to Copenhagen.

"But there's still a kind of a superficial level where the line that's got to get passed to really make a huge difference is about setting a target.

"Even though the steps themselves might be more consequential than a target, it's just a kind of superficial marker that's been established."

(Editing by Alex Richardson)