FACTBOX: How to judge success, failure at U.N. climate talks

Reuters 30 Oct 09;

(Reuters) - Talks on a new U.N. climate deal are bogged down before a December 7-18 meeting of 190 nations in Copenhagen -- the following lays out how to judge success or failure.

Negotiators will meet in Barcelona, Spain, from November 2 to November 6 for their last session before Copenhagen

Yvo de Boer, head of the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat, says there are four "political essentials" for a deal even though it will be impossible to agree a legally binding treaty in Copenhagen and some details will be left for 2010.

1) DEVELOPED COUNTRIES -- "Ambitious" targets for each nation to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists in the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in 2007 that developed nations would have to cut emissions by between 25 and 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 to avert the worst of climate change. So far, planned cuts average 11 to 15 percent -- the Secretariat calls these "woefully short" of the IPCC range.

A U.S. Senate committee will aim to pass a carbon cutting bill in early November, but full U.S. legislation is unlikely by Copenhagen.

2) DEVELOPING NATIONS -- "Nationally appropriate mitigation actions" by developing nations. Such actions, slowing the rise of emissions rather than demanding absolute cuts, could include making more use of renewable energy such as wind or solar power; more efficient coal power plants; and better building insulation.

3) CASH AND TECHNOLOGY -- Agreement on ways to raise "new, additional and predictable financial resources and technology." It says the cash needed both to curb emissions and help people adapt to changes such as droughts or floods could total $250 billion per year in 2020. The Secretariat also wants developed nations to come up with at least $10 billion in Copenhagen to kick-start a deal.

4) INSTITUTIONS -- "An effective institutional framework with governance structures that address the needs of developing countries." Copenhagen needs to work out the nuts and bolts of how to share out new funds and technologies.

RECENT VIEWS

* The European Union agreed on October 30 to three conditional offers of cash for developing nations. "I think this is a breakthrough that ... makes a Copenhagen agreement possible," British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said.

* Jairam Ramesh, India's minister of state for environment, cautioned on October 16: "We may not get the perfect agreement. This is Copenhagen 1.0. You may have Copenhagen 2.0 a couple of months later.".

* "The real negotiations will be after Copenhagen," said Yi Xianliang, a Chinese Foreign Ministry official. "Copenhagen will be a starting point, not an ending point."

* "We are still keeping ambitious expectations and targets," U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said on October 28

FACTBOX: Climate negotiating positions of top emitters
Reuters 30 Oct 09;

(Reuters) - Following are the negotiating positions of top greenhouse gas emitters in the run-up to a U.N. meeting in Copenhagen in December where a new pact for combating climate change is due to be agreed:

1) CHINA (annual emissions: 6.8 billion metric tons, 5.5 metric tons per capita)

* Emissions - President Hu Jintao promised on September 22 that China would cut its carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of economic output by a "notable margin" by 2020 compared to 2005. The "carbon intensity" goal is the first measurable curb on national emissions for China. Hu reiterated a promise that China would try to raise the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 15 percent by 2020.

* Demands - China wants developed nations to cut their greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and to give far more aid and green technology.

2) UNITED STATES (6.4 billion metric tons, 21.2 metric tons per capita)

* Emissions - President Barack Obama wants to cut U.S. emissions back to 1990 levels by 2020 and by 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. He told the United Nations on September 23 that the days when the United States "dragged its feet" on climate change were over.

Democratic U.S. senators will try to push a bill through the Environment and Public Works Committee as early as the first week of November. The bill would cut emissions by 20 percent from 2005 levels by 2020 -- about 7 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. It would still face a long road to become law.

* Finance - The United States says a "dramatic increase" is needed in funds to help developing nations.

* Demands - "We cannot meet this challenge unless all the largest emitters of greenhouse gas pollution act together," Obama said.

3) EUROPEAN UNION (5.03 billion metric tons, 10.2 metric tons per capita)

* Emissions - EU leaders agreed in December 2008 to cut emissions by 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and by 30 percent if other developed nations follow suit.

* Finance - EU leaders made progress toward an agreement on funding at a summit on October 30. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said an accord had been reached but diplomats said leaders were still trying to seal an east-west rift. A draft declaration says developing nations will need 100 billion euros ($148 billion) a year by 2020.

* Demands - The EU wants developing nations to curb the rise of their emissions by 15 to 30 percent below a trajectory of "business as usual" by 2020.

4) RUSSIA (1.7 billion metric tons, 11.9 metric tons per capita)

* Emissions - President Dmitry Medvedev said in June that Russia's emissions would be around 10 to 15 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. That means a rise from now -- emissions were 34 percent below 1990 levels in 2007.

* Demands - Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on September 11 that Russia would reject any new climate pact that imposed restrictions on Russia but did not bind other big polluters such as the United States or China.

5) INDIA (1.4 billion metric tons, 1.2 metric tons per capita)

* Emissions - India is prepared to quantify the amount of greenhouse gas emissions it could cut with domestic actions, but will not accept internationally binding targets, Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh said on September 17. India has said its per capita emissions will never rise to match those of developed nations.

* Demands - Like China, India wants rich nations to cut emissions by at least 40 percent by 2020. But Ramesh signaled room to compromise on October 16: "It's a negotiation. We've given a number of 40 percent but one has to be realistic."

6) JAPAN (1.4 billion metric tons, 11.0 metric tons per capita)

* Emissions - Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama wants to cut Japan's emissions by 25 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 if Copenhagen agrees an ambitious deal, toughening a goal set by the previous government of an eight percent reduction.

* Finance - Hatoyama told the United Nations on September 22 that Tokyo would also step up aid.

(Note: Greenhouse gas emissions are 2008 data by Germany's Energy industry institute IWR except EU, which are from 2007 submission to United Nations)