Australian sea-level rise report not watertight

Peter Ker, The Age 17 Nov 09;

THE Victorian Government has questioned the reliability of a Federal Government report on rising sea levels, declaring the state would soon release work that was "20 times" more accurate.

Responding to claims that up to 45,000 homes in Victoria - worth more than $10 billion - would be threatened by rising sea levels by 2100, State Environment Minister Gavin Jennings said the report had taken a "broad brush" approach to the issue and did not involve the best analytical science available.

The warning of sea-level damage was made in a Federal report released by Climate Change Minister Penny Wong on Saturday, ahead of this week's debate on emissions trading in Federal Parliament.

The Victorian Government has its own sea-level rise document due for release early next year, and Mr Jennings said he could not yet corroborate the sort of predictions released by Senator Wong.

"The reason I'm not jumping into providing numbers immediately is that we think we need a finer grain of detail," he said. "The difference between our work and the Commonwealth's is that it's at least 20 times more accurate …"

Mr Jennings also released two new CSIRO reports on predicted sea-level rises.

Under the most modest scenario considered in the CSIRO reports, sea levels during storms are likely to be about 15 centimetres higher in 2030 than they are during storms today.

The documents show Stony Point in Western Port is likely to face some of the biggest inundation problems in Victoria.

Within Melbourne, the bayside suburb of Elwood was named as one of the suburbs most likely to suffer inundation.

By 2070, the most modest sea-level rise considered by the reports would have inundated "a significant area of Elwood".

Altona, Queenscliff and Port Fairy were also forecast to suffer from sea-level rises and storm activity.

The report to be released by Victoria next year will consider three sea-level rise scenarios by 2100: rises of 80 centimetres, 110 centimetres and 140 centimetres.

Victorian planning regulations tell builders to expect an 80-centimetre rise by the end of the century, but Friends of the Earth spokesman Damien Lawson said that estimate should now be revised upwards.

"We should be making planning decisions based on worst-case scenarios," he said.