Climate talks resume but Copenhagen hopes fade

Richard Ingham Yahoo News 4 Nov 09;

BARCELONA, Spain (AFP) – Climate talks in Barcelona resumed on Wednesday after an angry spat but negotiators admitted chances for sealing a hoped-for UN treaty on global warming by year's end had almost vanished.

"The impasse that we had yesterday seems to have been overcome and we are indeed content with that," said Anders Turesson, chief negotiator for Sweden, which holds the European Union (EU) presidency.

Work on one of the twin tracks under negotiation slammed to a halt on Tuesday after African countries staged a boycott.

The bloc of some 50 nations accused rich counterparts of backsliding on promises to curb man-made carbon emissions blamed for global warming.

It demanded they slash their pollution by at least 40 percent by 2020 over 1990 levels.

The squabble blocked talks among countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the cornerstone pact of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

It did not affect the other path of the UNFCCC negotiations, which includes the United States, the big Kyoto holdout.

Under a behind-the-scenes deal, delegates agreed to devote more time to scrutinising emissions cuts in a panel under the Kyoto track.

"Work has resumed fully in the contact group," said Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping of Sudan, for the Group of 77 bloc of developing countries.

"We are guardedly optimistic, and indeed a degree of focus (on emissions reductions) is something we can record we have started to witness, and that's a very important indication."

UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer told AFP the problem "has been temporarily settled."

He cautioned, though: "Unless we see some substantial movement from industrial countries on targets and finance, the problem will remain the same today as it was yesterday."

The twin-track process was launched in Bali in 2007 with the goal of concluding a post-2012 treaty among the UNFCCC's 192 parties at a December 7-18 showdown in Copenhagen.

But negotiations have been hamstrung over how to apportion emissions curbs between rich countries and developing giants.

Another headache is how to muster hundreds of billions of dollars to wean poor countries off carbon-intensive technology and strengthen their defences against climate change.

Artur Runge-Metzger, the European Commission's chief negotiator, said there was still only a "fragmented" view as to what countries were offering in these extremely complex issues.

"We will probably only have the full picture in the last days of Copenhagen, maybe even only during the last night... the (emission) numbers and the financial figures are probably, politically, the hardest part of the entire deal," he said.

Runge-Metzger insisted the EU "will still be pushing to come to a legally binding, or let's say a fully-fledged, treaty.

"But we hear more and more voices, including some of our political leaders, who say maybe time has run out and we need to look for something as a kind of a framework agreement which will allow for immediate action after Copenhagen, and then side by side you can continue to talk on the fully-fledged treaty and you can conclude that in the next year.

"I think these things that are being discussed openly at the present point in time," he said.

European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso said in Washington on Tuesday it was "obvious" that a "full-fledged binding treaty, Kyoto-type" could not be completed in Copenhagen.

He hoped for a framework agreement at Copenhagen that would then be fleshed out in later negotiations, but warned against a protracted process akin to the stalled Doha round of global trade liberalization talks.

Di-Aping, at a press conference, heaped scorn on any "political" deal that was devoid of legal teeth.

Developing countries had a well-founded suspicion about rich countries, he said.

"Tell me of any politician who delivers on his political manifesto," he asked. "Is it (British Prime Minister) Gordon Brown? Is it (Australian Prime Minister) Kevin Rudd?"

Nicholas Stern sees good chance for deal in Copenhagen
Dave Graham, Reuters 4 Nov 09;

BERLIN (Reuters) - World powers have a "very good chance" of reaching a political deal to target global curbs in carbon emissions at a U.N. conference in Copenhagen next month, British climate change expert Nicholas Stern said on Wednesday.

Stern, author of an influential 2006 report for the British government on the impact of global warming, said he did not expect a "formal treaty" to be signed in Copenhagen, partly due to resistance in the United States.

"But we can and should put together a strong and clear political deal. I think that a complete failure in Copenhagen would be very damaging. But I don't think that will happen.

"I think so many people want it to succeed that we've got a very good chance," Stern told a news conference before delivering a lecture at Berlin's Technical University.

A deal at the December 7-18 Copenhagen conference ought to contain a commitment to cutting global annual output of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions to 35 gigatonnes from almost 50 gigatonnes now, and to around 20 gigatonnes by 2050, he said.

"Those numbers are crucial. This is the first generation that through its negligence could destroy the relationship between human beings and the planet," said the 63-year-old Stern, a former chief economist of the World Bank.

"We must agree in Copenhagen to those maxima for 2030 and 2050," he added, noting that the numbers implied a reduction in emissions in Europe of around 80 percent per capita by 2050.

Failure to take the necessary steps would lead to major population shifts and create serious conflict, Stern said.

"The biggest difficulty I think will come in the U.S., but I think we've seen progress there as well," he added.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and U.S. President Barack Obama discussed climate change in Washington on Tuesday, with Obama saying the U.S. and the European Union had agreed to redouble their efforts to achieve success in Copenhagen.

Progress toward a climate deal has been hampered by obstacles in the U.S. Senate and at U.N. negotiations this week in Barcelona, Spain -- the last session before Copenhagen.

Stern said he felt the United States should spend more on helping developing economies to lower carbon emissions.

"If there is $50 billion per year to help the poorer parts of the world make their adjustments by 2015, I would hope that the U.S. would make a significant share of that -- maybe $15 or $20 billion, with a priority for adaptation in Africa and fighting deforestation," he said.

(Editing by Mark Trevelyan)

Ban Ki-moon says detailed climate deal unlikely
Peter Griffiths, Reuters 3 Nov 09;

LONDON (Reuters) - Governments are unlikely to agree on all the details of a new global climate change deal when they meet in Copenhagen next month, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on Tuesday.

While optimistic that the 192 countries will be able to reach some sort of political agreement, Ban warned it would not be the last word on a successor to the United Nations' carbon-cutting Kyoto Protocol.

"We need the political will because if there is the political will I am sure that there is a political way that we can conclude a binding agreement in Copenhagen," he said after talks with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown in London.

"I am reasonably optimistic that Copenhagen will be a very important milestone. At the same time, realistically speaking, we may not be able to have all the words on detailed matters."

Instead, countries should aim to agree on four points: the level of rich nations' emissions cuts; poor nations' plans to reduce their emissions; a financial package to help developing countries to adapt and a system for managing the process.

RICH AND POOR DIVIDED

Negotiations on a new treaty to cut greenhouse gas emissions in an attempt to slow global warming have faltered repeatedly since their launch in 2007.

Rich and poor nations are divided over how to share cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and over the amount of money developing countries need to adapt to global warming and how to raise it.

Speaking later at a conference on religion and the environment near London, Ban urged rich states to take the initiative.

"First and foremost, the developed countries should lead this campaign, considering all these historic responsibilities and also considering that they are the countries that have most of the capacities -- financial and technological," he said.

Failure to reach a deal will lead to more energy, food and water shortages and endanger millions of people, particularly those in poorer nations, he said.

Brown, who has said he will attend the talks in Copenhagen next month, said he and Ban were determined to make progress in the Danish capital.

"We believe it is possible to get an agreement on long-term targets and on intermediate targets and at the same time to get the finance in place that will allow developing countries to know that they are being given the proper protection when they take action to deal with climate change," he said.

In a sign of the divisions to be overcome, African nations boycotted U.N. climate talks in Barcelona on Tuesday in a protest to urge rich countries to set deeper 2020 cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.