World leaders needed at talks to cut climate deal

Katy Daigle And Arthur Max, Associated Press Yahoo News 6 Nov 09;

BARCELONA, Spain – After two years of tough U.N. climate talks often pitting the world's rich against the poor, negotiators said Friday a new global agreement now rides on industrial nations pledging profound emissions cuts next month in Copenhagen.

Negotiators from industrial nations, including the United States, said eleventh-hour promises are possible and a global warming pact can be reached.

But developing countries complained that pledges so far were nowhere near enough to avoid a catastrophe, and that world leaders need to take part in the 192-nation conference on Dec. 7-18 to cut a meaningful deal.

"Part of the frustration is that a deal is so close ... all the elements are there," said Kevin Conrad, the delegate from Papua New Guinea. "But it's absolutely conceivable for senior people to come together and spend a week and clean all this up."

The United States was universally seen as the linchpin to a deal, but it has been unable to present its position or pledge emissions targets because of the slow progress of climate legislation in Congress. "Everyone else wants to calibrate against" the Americans, Conrad said.

With the U.S. position still unclear, expectations at this week's U.N. talks in Spain shifted toward a political agreement in which rich nations would pledge to reduce emissions and to finance aid to help the world's poorest cope with the effects of Earth's rising temperatures.

Under such a deal, nations would agree to stick to their promises while negotiating the treaty, taking as long as a year. If world leaders come to Copenhagen to endorse the deal, those promises would carry more weight, delegates said.

At least 40 leaders are expected, including British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Former Vice President Al Gore said he believes President Barack Obama will attend, although the White House has not confirmed that. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil has indicated he may come, and a spokesman for Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said she is keeping the date open.

Yvo de Boer, the U.N. official who is shepherding the talks, said negotiators still hoped to achieve a significant agreement setting specific goals.

"Governments can deliver a strong deal in Copenhagen," de Boer said, adding that it would be hard for developed countries "to wiggle out" of any written commitments.

The deal may take the form of consensus decisions, including an overarching statement of long-term objectives, along with a series of supplemental decisions on technology transfers, rewards for halting deforestation, and building infrastructure in poor countries to adapt to global warming, delegates said.

Developing nations were mistrustful of any result that did not hold wealthy nations to legally binding targets, citing past broken promises in development aid and famine relief.

The aim of the negotiations has been to broker an agreement building on the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. Without a new one, carbon emissions will have no international regulation, which would hinder the ability of industry to factor in the price of carbon and plan future business.

While some countries, such as Germany and Britain, are meeting their Kyoto emission-reduction targets, others have not. Canada's emissions grew by more than 25 percent from 1990 to 2007, U.N. figures show, although it committed to reduce them 6 percent from 1990 levels by 2012. Japan's grew 9 percent in that period, compared with a target of minus 6 percent.

De Boer was looking to Washington to announce a clear emissions target for 2020, saying "a number from the president of the United States would have huge weight."

"The United States is interested in the strongest possible agreement we can get from this process," said Jonathan Pershing, the chief U.S. delegate to the talks. He showed impatience with developing nations for wanting to hold rich nations to legally enforceable targets while arguing they should be exempt from them.

"We are looking for parallelism. We are not looking for imbalance," he said.

He declined to say whether the U.S. will be ready to submit a target for the Copenhagen accord, adding that Obama has the authority to make a commitment without congressional approval, "but a decision on whether or not we will do it has not yet been made."

U.N. scientists say rich countries must cut carbon emissions by 25 percent to 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2020 to prevent Earth's temperatures from rising 2 degrees Celsius (3.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above its average temperature before the industrial era began 150 years ago. Anything rise beyond that could trigger climate catastrophe.

So far, reduction pledges total 11 percent to 15 percent. But those could be seen as negotiable.

The wider issue of ending the Copenhagen conference without a legally binding agreement disappointed developing nations already suffering droughts, floods and other disasters blamed on rising temperatures. Those countries urged negotiators not to give up on a binding pact in Copenhagen.

South Africa's chief negotiator, Alf Wills, warned against promoting a watered-down text, saying "we will not accept a weak, green-wash outcome."

The European Union said it wanted the most ambitious deal possible. "We are going to change the fundamentals of industrial civilization, so it's no wonder there is a lot of activity going on in a negotiation like this," said Anders Turresson of Sweden.

Forty leaders plan to attend climate talks: U.N.
Alister Doyle and Gerard Wynn, Reuters 6 Nov 09;

BARCELONA, Spain (Reuters) - About 40 world leaders plan to go to Copenhagen next month to boost the chances of clinching a U.N. climate deal, the United Nations said Friday as preparatory talks wound down with scant progress.

Developing nations in Barcelona accused rich countries of seeking to lower ambitions for an 190-nation deal in Copenhagen with suggestions that up to an extra year may be needed to tie up details of a legally binding treaty.

Inviting world leaders to the end of the Copenhagen meeting on December 7-18 could help overcome disputes, said Yvo de Boer, head of the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat, on the final day of the week-long Barcelona talks.

"My understanding is that 40 heads of state have indicated their intention to be present," he said. They include British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy as well as leaders of African and Caribbean nations.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is considering attending, a spokesman said in Berlin. U.S. President Barack Obama is among those undecided.

Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen has not formally invited leaders to the talks, currently due to be limited to environment ministers. "There is no official figure" of how many leaders will come, a Danish spokesman said.

The 175-nation Barcelona meeting made little progress toward a deal but narrowed options on helping the poor to adapt to climate change, sharing technology and cutting emissions from deforestation, delegates said.

RICH-POOR SPLIT

The meeting exposed a deep rich-poor divide about sharing out the burden of curbs on greenhouse gas emissions meant as part of a worldwide assault to avert droughts, wildfires, extinctions and rising seas.

"Developed countries are acting as a brake toward any meaningful progress" said Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping of Sudan, chair of the Group of 77 and China, representing poor nations. African nations boycotted some talks Tuesday in protest.

"We do not have the option of delay," said Dessima Williams of Grenada, representing small island states which say they risk being swamped by rising sea levels. She said a Copenhagen deal had to be legally binding and rejected talk of a delay.

De Boer said Copenhagen "can and must be the turning point in the international fight against climate change" but said time was too short to seal a full legal treaty in 2009.

He said Copenhagen should at least set 2020 greenhouse gas emissions goals for all rich nations, agree actions by the poor to slow their rising emissions and agree ways to raise billions in funding and mechanisms to oversee funds.

"I believe that the U.S. can commit to a number in Copenhagen," de Boer said.

A U.S. climate change bill cleared its first hurdle in the U.S. Senate Thursday, but Democrats are likely to fall far short of their goal of passing legislation in the full Senate before Copenhagen.

That would make it difficult for the United States, the number two emitter after China, to offer an internationally binding emissions reduction target in Copenhagen. That in turn makes it hard for other nations to make commitments.

"That's a decision yet to be made," Jonathan Pershing, head of the U.S. delegation, said when asked if Obama would give a number before the Senate agreed legislation.

Activists criticized a lack of leadership in the run-up to Copenhagen, including from Obama. Two protesters wandered the conference hall dressed as aliens with green faces Friday asking: "Where are your climate leaders?" in robotic voices.

"Where is the great Rudd?," one of them asked a group of Australian delegates, referring to Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

In St Andrews, Scotland, British finance minister Alistair Darling said he would seek progress to raise cash to fight climate change at a group of 20 finance ministers' meeting.

"I want to use this weekend to engage finance ministers in the task of making sure we can get money on the table. We have been very clear we think $100 billion will be required," he said.

(With extra reporting by Anna Ringstrom in Copenhagen, Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)

Leaders 'likely' to go to summit
Richard Black, BBC News 6 Nov 09;

At least 40 world leaders are likely to attend December's UN climate summit in a bid to secure a new global treaty.

Some observers say only intervention from heads of state and government can close the deal, given the gulf between industrialised and developing nations.

Others maintain the harsh words bandied here at the final preparatory meeting amount to no more than posturing.

The UN's top climate official said firm US targets for reducing emissions were necessary for a deal.

"I believe the US can commit to a number [at the summit] in Copenhagen," said Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN climate convention (UNFCCC).

"There was a number in Mr Obama's campaign, there are numbers in the legislation [going through Congress] - so I believe it's perfectly possible for the US to sign up to a specific pledge."

'Fair share'

US legislation setting caps on emissions is under discussion in the Senate, and unlikely to be finalised this year.

Quizzed by reporters as to whether the US would bring an emissions target to Copenhagen, its delegation chief here, Jonathan Pershing, said it was possible but a decision had not yet been taken.

"The science demands urgent action, and the US is committed to our fair share," he said.

"Developed countries including the US must put numbers forward; developing countries except the least developed countries must [also] make commitments."

The Copenhagen summit is supposed to conclude the two-year process that began at the Bali summit two years ago of formulating a treaty to supplant the Kyoto Protocol.

The absence of a US target is the most glaring hole in the draft treaty's complex tapestry that weaves together concerns over reducing emissions from rich countries, reducing the rate of emissions growth in more prosperous developing nations, and providing financial assistance to the developing world.

Developing countries have regularly accused the West - and the US in particular - of failing to live up to its international obligations.

"It seems that developed countries have been negotiating with their economic interests at heart rather than [the world's] environmental interests," said Angelina Navarro Llanos, head of the Bolivian delegation.

But Mr Pershing insisted that developing countries were also to blame for the apparent impasse that earlier in the week brought a walkout from African delegations.

"Developing countries want a legal deal that applies to us but not to them," he said.

The rancour evident during the week has led some observers to conclude there is no chance of achieving a legally binding deal in Copenhagen.

Many people close to the talks - including Mr de Boer - have played down the chances of tying up a full treaty this year, and there are suggestions it could take a further full year to conclude.

'Political posturing'

But others said the picture was not as dark as it seemed, and that last-minute policy revelations and compromises were still likely.

"There's a fair degree of political posturing," said Kumi Naidoo, chair of the activist coalition tcktcktck.

"[But] some of the negotiators from developed countries have come to the conclusion that they're not going to deliver what was promised in Bali, and there's a lowering of expectations going on."

Most developed countries set out targets for reducing their emissions well before this meeting convened - and they add up to a lot less than the 40% (from 1990 levels by 2020) that developing nations are demanding.

On the face of it, this is an unbridgeable divide; but other delegates suggested the G77/China bloc of developing countries would probably settle for about 30% provided other elements of a package - such as plentiful finance - were also on offer.

Mr de Boer said the Danish conference hosts had a list of 40 heads of state or government intending to attend - though it is not known whether US President Barack Obama is among them.

Some delegates suggested only political engagement at this level could turn the current situation into a new binding agreement.

Most of the negotiating here has taken place in small groups tackling specific issues; and it is clear that progress has been uneven.

Negotiations towards an agreement on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (Redd) were progressing well, delegates said, with a good chance of agreeing something in Copenhagen that could see money begin to flow into forest protection next year.

Mr de Boer cited the transfer of clean technology from the industrialised to the developing world as another area where progress has been made.

But other areas of negotiation - notably on raising money to help poor countries adapt to climate impacts, and on commitments to reduce emissions - have clearly been more difficult.

There is still disagreement too over the legal form of a new agreement at or after Copenhagen - whether it should take the form of an extension to the Kyoto Protocol, which Mr de Boer noted was the only legal agreement in existence that had curbed carbon emissions, or another legal entity.

Elements of the draft treaty remain in the form of "non-papers", delegates said - documents that do not carry the weight of a formal negotiating text.

Delegates will convene in the Danish capital on 7 December for two weeks of negotiations; although the introduction of key elements is likely to be withheld until the final few days.