Crop failures could disrupt entire societies

Crucial to help farmers cope with effects of climate change on harvests
Nirmal Ghosh, Straits Times 10 Dec 09;

BANGKOK: For many years, Laotian farmers around the capital Vientiane and across the Savannakhet plains have been using traditional methods to predict the weather. Some routinely observe nature's signs, inspecting the colour of frogs' legs and lizards' tails, and the height of anthills.

The accuracy of their interpretations is critical, even if the methods appear unscientific: Like the vast majority of farmers across Asia, they live from harvest to harvest, and depend on the weather for good yields.

In recent years, the signs have been dismal, especially around Vietnam and north-eastern Thailand. The rains have been getting heavier, concentrated over shorter periods, and the dry spells have been getting longer. As a result, planting and harvesting cycles for rice have been badly affected. Thailand's tapioca harvests have also been hit.

Likewise, changes in rain patterns, increasing air temperatures and rising sea levels have hit Indonesia's padi fields, with floods and droughts resulting in more fields failing to provide a harvest.

Farther away, Bangladesh's crops have been hit by a double whammy of climate change and natural disasters. Officials predict a continued decline in average yields - 17 per cent for rice, 50 per cent for wheat and 6 per cent for maize in 2050.

In India, farms have had their share of irregular monsoons, floods, and droughts.

'We have evidence that by 2025, in some parts of the world including... parts of Asia and Africa, crop yields will drop by anything between 20 and 40 per cent,' president of the United Nation's International Fund for Agricultural Development, Mr Kanayo Nwanze, was reported as saying last month.

And the worry is not just for nations whose crops are suffering. Thailand, Vietnam and India are the world's top three exporters of rice, accounting for around 60 per cent of exports.

Thailand's tapioca harvest - the country is one of the world's top three exporters - is not only a major source of carbohydrates, but also has potential as a biofuel when converted to ethanol.

More than a matter of food security, crop failure is also an issue of socio-economic security. If not managed well, the cascading effects of climate change could disrupt whole societies.

In a 2009 report on the impact of climate change on agriculture, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) gave some dire predictions. By 2050, it said, climate change could increase child malnutrition by 20 per cent more than if there was no climate change.

So, what can be done?

Cutting man-made emissions to slow down global warming, of course, is the long-term, all-encompassing approach.

Meanwhile, farmers from the fertile basin of the Mekong River to India's Ganges plain will need help more urgently. In the shorter term, they need government subsidies and direct aid to cope with the effects of uncertain weather.

In the middle term, more funding and input is needed from science, government agencies and non-government organisations to bring back effective traditional farming methods as well as introduce new innovative methods. More research is needed to come up with new breeds of seeds that are more weather- and pest-resistant, for instance.

Such innovations, however, are not so clear-cut. Opposing them are critics of genetically modified organisms, who argue that the consequences of genetic engineering are still largely unknown.

In Indochina, the United States Geological Service has been working with local universities to help farmers in the Mekong Delta region, coming up with computer models to predict the impact of climate change and other factors like hydroelectric dams on the flow of the river.

All this does not come cheap - and more is needed. The IFPRI in its report estimated that 'aggressive' investments of more than US$7 billion (S$9.7 billion) are needed every year, just to raise calorie consumption enough to offset the negative impacts of climate change on the health and well-being of children.

It's also an urgent matter. Sophisticated computer modelling shows that climate change will continue to induce unpredictable shifts in the start and end of rainy seasons, affecting the timing of crop planting and harvesting cycles.

Agriculture specialist Suppakorn Chinvanno from South-east Asia START, a research unit in Bangkok dedicated to climate change, puts it plainly.

'There will still be good (harvest) years,' he said. 'But the bad years will be very, very bad.'

Additional reporting by Tay Hwee Peng
Additional information from Xinhua

How the climate hits crops

ON FARMS

# Uncertain weather patterns affect planting and harvesting cycles.
# Unusually heavy rains, floods and droughts hit crops, pastures, forests and livestock directly.
# Soil and water quality also affected by floods and drought, which affect quality of crops.
# Warmer weather encourages weeds and pests.
# Rising sea levels affect water salinity, which can hit fisheries. Warmer waters also affect health of fish.

AROUND THE WORLD

# Drop in yields and production.
# Reduced GDP from agriculture.
# Higher and fluctuating food prices.
# More people at risk of hunger and food insecurity.
# Increased migration and civil unrest.

Source: UN Food and Agriculture Organisation