Abu Dhabi 2100: under water?

Vesela Todorova, The National 15 Jan 10;

ABU DHABI // The UAE could lose up to six per cent of its populated and developed coastline by the end of the century because of rising sea levels, according to a government-sponsored report on the local impact of climate change released yesterday.

A rise of one metre, the most modest scenario presented as not “unlikely” in the report, would put 1,155 square kilometres of the country’s coast under water by 2050; while nine metres – the most dire – would see almost all of the capital and much of Dubai submerged.

“While we may not be able to pinpoint exactly when to expect a one-metre gradual rise in sea level, we do know that it may be sooner than most scientists ever thought possible,” the report said.

Climate Change: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation was commissioned by the Environment Agency – Abu Dhabi (EAD) and compiled by researchers from the Stockholm Environment Institute in the United States. It marks the country’s first effort to examine the impact on the coastline, interior and ecosystems from ongoing climate change caused by burning fossil fuels.

“The UAE is seriously concerned about climate change on many levels,” said Majid al Mansouri, the EAD secretary general, at the release of the study yesterday.

“We are a country that already faces extreme climatic conditions and has precious natural resources, so long-term variations in temperature and precipitation will produce adverse impacts.”

The report urges the UAE to make plans to mitigate its impact and accommodate changes. Officials said the study would be used to help the country address coming climate change, and also by UAE diplomats arguing the country’s case in international climate negotiations that aim to set new limits on the emission of greenhouse gases.

Dr El Waleed Mohamed Hamad el Malik, a legal adviser at the EAD, said the study was commissioned as part of the country’s dedication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

“We have an obligation under the convention to highlight the impacts of climate change,” he said.

The report, which focuses on Abu Dhabi in greatest detail, cautions that some of the emirate’s most biologically-productive ecosystems, such as mangrove forests and seagrass beds, as well as flagship species such as the houbara bustard and marine turtles, are at an increased risk of extinction.

Populated coastline areas across the country are also extremely vulnerable, it said.

“For coastal zones in the UAE – home to approximately 85 per cent of the population, over 90 per cent of the infrastructure, many sensitive ecological subsystems, and important cultural heritage sites – the vulnerability to climate change is very high,” the study said.

It warned that unless future development planning accounted for the changes, there would be unacceptable economic damages for the UAE’s coastal zones.

The International Panel on Climate Change, the world’s most authoritative scientific body on the subject, estimates that sea levels will rise by between 0.37 metres and 0.59m by the turn of the century. The actual fluctuation will depend on a number of variables, including how much global temperatures rise, and how that will affect glaciers and snow cover on polar caps.

Because of the variability, the study focused on several scenarios. The first, involving the one-metre sea-level rise by 2050, would see Abu Dhabi lose a total of 344 square kilometres to the sea, including extensive mangrove areas, more than a hundred square kilometres of urban green spaces as well as 10 sq km of built-up area and roads.

Dubai would lose important infrastructure as well, the report said.

The second assesses what would happen if the sea rose three metres by 2050, a scenario that would see flooding in the Mangrove Village development as well as parts of Industrial City south of the main island, with Abu Dhabi losing more than 800 sq km under water.

A further projection for the entire country put sea levels rising nine metres by 2100, which would see 5,000 sq km – including all of the capital and Dubai – submerged. The shore would migrate south by up to 30km, and Jebel Dhanna and Al Mirfa would become islands.

“All coastal cities in the UAE will experience progressively increasing inundation, depending on the scenario analysed,” the report said.

The UAE report warns that despite uncertainty, some degree of global warming can be expected resulting in an unavoidable increase in sea levels.

“The uncertainty of ‘when’ and ‘to what extent’ are we really vulnerable placates many into a ‘wait and see’ mentality,” the report said.

The EAD last year drafted a policy on climate change, but the document is not likely to be released before the Ministry of Environment and Water, which is working on a national strategy, is ready with its own recommendations, Mr al Mansouri said.

Developers plan to keep the sea at bay
Loveday Morris, The National 17 Jan 10;

ABU DHABI // With hundreds of billions of dirhams invested in developing the capital’s low-lying, sandy islands, prudent measures have been taken to ensure the landmark projects do not one day disappear under the sea.

Abu Dhabi’s 2030 plan shows an idyllic archipelago, with arched bridges stretching across still, turquoise waters, joining eco-villages and residential zones to cultural landmarks and the lofty towers of the financial district.

But much of the natural land earmarked for development lies at less than two metres above sea level, meaning defences are essential, especially in light of increasingly pessimistic data on the extent sea levels may rise.

Last week, a report commissioned by the Environment Agency-Abu Dhabi said the UAE could lose up to six per cent of its populated and developed coastline by the end of the century because of rising sea levels, and unless adequate planning is taken the economic impact will be “unacceptably high”.

According to a study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences last month, the average global sea level may rise by as much as 1.9 metres before 2100, much more than previous forecasts.

From ambitious land-raising projects to sea walls and barriers, safeguards against the impact of climate change must be considered by any coastal development.

The Abu Dhabi 2030 plan states: “The emerging reality of global warming and its potential to raise sea levels means all new waterfront development should be planning for higher water levels at their edge.”

Originally lying at about two metres above sea level, Saadiyat Island, where Abu Dhabi plans to create a US$27 billion (Dh99bn) cultural district, has undergone massive landscaping to protect it from rising tides.

Developers used 106 million tonnes of rock and dredged sand to raise the level of the land by as much as 13 metres on parts of the island, which now stands between four and 15 metres above sea level.

“We have also built breakwaters to protect the three exposed museums on the water’s edge,” said Dominique Bombaert, the project manager for Jan De Nul, the Belgian company that undertook the massive job. The island is also relatively naturally sheltered from sea swells, he said.

Abu Dhabi’s Tourism Development & Investment Company said in a statement it had “ensured that the development of Saadiyat Island has been conducted with potential sea level and climatic changes in mind”.

Many plans for the islands were also under way before the Urban Planning Council (UPC) was formed in 2007. But the council, which is organising the capital’s development, has met developers and is “confident” they have taken sufficient measures.

Developers currently have no legal obligation to take into account the potential for rising tides, but the UPC is writing new guidelines to be published before the end of the year.

The Abu Dhabi 2030 plan says developers should take into account a 75cm rise in sea levels. Neil Mallen, the UPC’s planning manager for the environment, said most developers had taken “very safely conservative estimates. It’s the prudent thing to do in the absence of any reliable, official information”.

However, the UPC still estimates that property and infrastructure valued at $400m now in place would be put at risk by a half-metre rise in sea level.

The economic impact is expected to rise exponentially as construction grows in line with the Abu Dhabi 2030 plan.

Nakheel officials have said engineers of the Palm Jumeirah in Dubai factored in a possible sea level rise of 50cm in its design, plus an additional buffer to protect against tides, storm surges and high seas. The level of the island is a minimum of four metres above the top water level at high tide.

According to last week’s report, a rise of one metre in the UAE, the most modest scenario presented as not unlikely, would put 1,155 square kilometres of the country’s coast under water by 2050. A rise of nine metres the most dire scenario would see almost all of the capital and much of Dubai submerged.

It is easier, and more pleasing to the eye, to engineer protection into a project rather than add it later, according to Dr Paul Ashley, who is responsible for environment practice at Mott MacDonald, a British engineering and development company that worked on several developments in Dubai Marina.

“You could always aid coastal protection by retrofitting, but doing that and keeping a development attractive to live in could be tricky,” he said.

Though its geography may make the UAE susceptible to the effects of a rising sea, the Arabian Gulf’s shallow waters, with a maximum depth of 90 metres, mean it is far less prone to storm surges.

“The reality with the Gulf is that it’s a rather small, shallow water basin so the risk of storm surges and really sudden dramatic impact from sea-level rise is if anything a little less,” Mr Mallen said.

Larger landmark projects, which have teams of experts working on preventive measures, are not as much a concern to the UPC as smaller developments that may not take into account the potential for increased flooding.

“There’s certainly been a massive investment in development on relatively low-level land, and it’s a concern,” Mr Mallen said.