El nino to trigger drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia

Antara 9 Apr 10;

Jakarta (ANTARA News) - El Nino is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010 and transition to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions by Northern Hemisphere summer 2010, according to a weather forecast.

"Expected El Nino impacts during April-June 2010 include drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia and enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean," said a press statement of the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) received by ANTARA, Friday.

El Nino weakened to moderate strength during March 2010, with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreasing slightly, but still exceeding +1 degree Celsius across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at the end of the month.

Anomalous tropical convection remained consistent with El Nino, with enhanced convection over the central and eastern Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia, according to the weather forecast.

The equatorial low-level easterly trade winds strengthened near the Date Line, while upper-level easterly wind anomalies became confined to the eastern Pacific.

"Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect an ongoing, but weakening El Nino," the statement said.

For the contiguous United States, potential El Nino impacts include above-average precipitation for the southeastern states, while above-average temperatures are most likely for the Pacific Northwest.

The forecast is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA`s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions.

Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site. Forecasts for the evolution of El Nino/La Nina are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC`s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin.

In 1997-98, Indonesia was affected severely by strong El Nino leading to significant social and economic implications for the country. A large part of the country suffered from severe drought, resulting in a huge shortfall in rice production.

The El Nino also triggered forest fires which damaged more than 9.7 million ha of forest area. The smoke and transboundary haze from the forest fires affected not only Indonesia but also other Southeast Asian countries, in particular Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia and Singapore.