U.N. climate talks resume, scant chance of 2010 deal

Alister Doyle, Reuters 8 Apr 10;

BONN, Germany (Reuters) - Climate negotiators meet in Bonn on Friday for the first time since the fractious Copenhagen summit but with scant hopes of patching together a new legally binding U.N. deal in 2010.

Delegates from 170 nations gathered on Thursday for the April 9-11 meeting that will seek to rebuild trust after the December summit disappointed many by failing to agree a binding U.N. deal at the climax of two years of talks.

Bonn will decide a programme for meetings in 2010 and air ideas about the non-binding Copenhagen Accord, backed by more than 110 nations including major emitters China, the United States, Russia and India but opposed by some developing states.

The Accord seeks to limit world temperature rises to below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F), but without saying how.

"We need to reassess the situation after Copenhagen," said Bruno Sekoli of Lesotho, who speaks on behalf of the least developed nations who want far tougher cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to limit temperature rises to less than 1.5 C.

Many nations favor progress on practical steps in 2010, such as aid to developing nations to combat climate change that is meant to total about $10 billion a year from 2010-12 under the Copenhagen Accord, rising to $100 billion a year from 2020.

Delegates said perhaps two extra sessions of talks were likely to be added before the next annual ministerial talks in Cancun, Mexico, from November 29-December 10. That would mean a less hectic pace than last year's run-up to Copenhagen.

"There has been a constructive attitude" in informal preparatory talks in Tokyo and Mexico, said Harald Dovland, a Norwegian official who is the vice-chair of U.N. talks on a new deal to succeed the existing Kyoto Protocol.

COPENHAGEN

But it is unclear what will happen to the Copenhagen Accord.

The United States is among the strongest backers of the Copenhagen Accord, but many developing nations do not want it to supplant the 1992 Climate Convention which they reckon stresses that the rich have to lead the way.

"I don't believe that the Copenhagen Accord will become the new legal framework," Yvo de Boer, head of the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat, told reporters in a briefing about Bonn last week.

He also doubted a legally binding deal would be reached in 2010, saying he hoped Cancun would agree the basic architecture "so that a year later, you can decide or not decide to turn that into a treaty." The 2011 meeting is in South Africa.

Wendel Trio, of environmental group Greenpeace, said many nations had to toughen their targets for curbing greenhouse gas emissions if they wanted to stay below a 2 degrees Celsius rise.

"The pledges so far will probably take us to somewhere between 3.5 and 4 degrees Celsius," he said. That would spur dangerous changes such as floods, heatwaves, droughts, more extinctions and rising sea levels.

In other signs of a revival of talks, the United States will host a meeting of major economies in Washington on April 18-19, top U.S. climate negotiator Todd Stern said on Wednesday.

He said he did not know if a legal U.N. treaty could be reached in 2010. One hurdle to a pact is that U.S. legislation to cap emissions is stalled in the U.S. Senate.

(Editing by Matthew Jones)

Factbox: National goals for combating global warming
Yahoo News 8 Apr 10;

(Reuters) - U.N. climate talks in Bonn from April 9-11 will review efforts to tackle global warming after the Copenhagen summit in December fell short of a legally binding text sought by many nations.

Following are national plans for curbing greenhouse gas emissions submitted this year to the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat. Many of the pledges hinge on actions by others:

INDUSTRIALISED NATIONS -- EMISSIONS CUTS BY 2020, FROM 1990 LEVELS UNLESS STATED (A scenario by the U.N. panel of climate scientists indicate industrialized nations would have to cut by 25 to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 to avoid the worst impacts)

UNITED STATES - President Barack Obama wants to cut U.S. emissions by 17 percent from 2005 levels, or 4 percent from 1990 levels. But legislation is stalled in the U.S. Senate and public concern about global warming has declined in 2010.

EU (27 nations) - 20 percent, or 30 percent if others act.

RUSSIA - 15 to 25 percent.

JAPAN - 25 percent as part of a "fair and effective international framework."

CANADA - 17 percent from 2005 levels, matching U.S. goal.

AUSTRALIA - 5 percent below 2000 levels or as much as 25 percent if there is an ambitious global deal. The range is 3-23 percent below 1990.

BELARUS - 5 to 10 percent, on condition of access to carbon trading and new technologies.

CROATIA - 5 percent.

KAZAKHSTAN - 15 percent.

NEW ZEALAND - 10 to 20 percent "if there is a comprehensive global agreement."

SWITZERLAND - 20 percent, or 30 percent if other developed nations make comparable cuts and poor nations act.

NORWAY - 30 percent, or 40 if there is an ambitious deal.

ICELAND - 30 percent in a joint effort with the EU.

LIECHTENSTEIN - 20 percent, or 30 percent if others act.

MONACO - 30 percent; aims to be carbon neutral by 2050.

DEVELOPING NATIONS' ACTIONS BY 2020 (U.N. climate panel scenarios show that major emerging economies should slow the growth of emissions by 15 to 30 percent below projected levels by 2020).

CHINA - Aims to cut the amount of carbon produced per unit of economic output by 40 to 45 percent from 2005 levels. This "carbon intensity" goal would let emissions keep rising, but more slowly than economic growth.

INDIA - Plans to reduce the emissions intensity of gross domestic product by 20 to 25 percent from 2005 levels.

BRAZIL - Intends to cut emissions by between 36.1 and 38.9 percent below "business as usual" levels with measures such as reducing deforestation, energy efficiency and more hydropower.

SOUTH AFRICA - Says that, with the right international aid, its emissions could peak between 2020-25, plateau for a decade and then decline in absolute terms from about 2035.

INDONESIA - Intends to reduce emissions by 26 percent by 2020 with measures including sustainable peat management, reduced deforestation, and energy efficiency.

MEXICO - Will seek to cut greenhouse gases by up to 30 percent below "business as usual."

SOUTH KOREA - Plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 30 percent below "business as usual" projections.

OTHERS' PLEDGES

ARMENIA - Increase renewable energy output, modernize power plants, restore forests.

BENIN - Develop public transport in Cotonou, better forest management, methane recovery from waste in big cities.

BHUTAN - Already absorbs more carbon in vegetation than it emits from burning fossil fuels; plans to stay that way.

BOTSWANA - Shift to gas from coal. Nuclear power, renewables, biomass and carbon capture also among options.

CONGO - Improve agriculture, limit vehicles in major cities, better forestry management.

COSTA RICA - A long-term effort to become "carbon neutral" under which any industrial emissions will be offset elsewhere, for instance by planting forests.

ETHIOPIA - More hydropower dams, wind farms, geothermal energy, biofuels and reforestation.

ERITREA - Improve energy conservation, efficiency, reduce deforestation, enhance soil carbon stocks.

GABON - Increase forestry, bolster clean energy

GEORGIA - Try to build a low-carbon economy while ensuring continued growth.

GHANA - Switch from oil to natural gas in electricity generation, build more hydropower dams, raise the share of renewable energy to 10-20 percent of electricity by 2020.

ISRAEL - Strive for a 20 percent cut in emissions below "business as usual" projections. Goals include getting 10 percent of electricity generation from renewable sources.

IVORY COAST - Shift to renewable energies, better forest management and farming, improved pollution monitoring.

JORDAN - Shift to renewable energies, upgrade railways, roads and ports. Goals include modernizing military equipment.

MACEDONIA - Improve energy efficiency, boost renewable energies, harmonize with EU energy laws.

MADAGASCAR - Shift to hydropower for major cities, push for "large scale" reforestation across the island, improve agriculture, waste management and transport.

MALDIVES - Achieve "carbon neutrality" by 2020.

MARSHALL ISLANDS - Cut carbon dioxide emissions by 40 percent below 2009 levels.

MAURITANIA - Raise forest cover to 9 percent by 2050 from 3.2 percent in 2009, boost clean energy.

MOLDOVA - Cut emissions by "no less than 25 percent" from 1990 levels.

MONGOLIA - Examining large-scale solar power in the Gobi desert, wind and hydropower. Improve use of coal.

MOROCCO - Develop renewable energies such as wind, solar power, hydropower. Improve industrial efficiency.

PAPUA NEW GUINEA - At least halve emissions per unit of economic output by 2030; become carbon neutral by 2050.

SIERRA LEONE - Set up a National Secretariat for Climate Change, create 12 protected areas by 2015, protect forests.

SINGAPORE - Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 16 percent below "business as usual" levels if the world agrees a strong, legally binding deal.

SIERRA LEONE - Increase conservation efforts, ensure forest cover of at least 3.4 million hectares by 2015. Develop clean energy including biofuels from sugarcane or rice husks.

TOGO - Raise forested area to 30 percent of the country by 2050 from 7 percent in 2005; improve energy efficiency.

(Compiled by Alister Doyle in Bonn)


Climate deal fear as talks resume
Richard Black, BBC News 8 Apr 10;

The first round of UN climate talks since December's bitter Copenhagen summit opens in Bonn on Friday with the future of the process uncertain.

Developing countries are adamant that the UN climate convention is the right forum for negotiating a global deal and want it done by the year's end.

But others, notably the US, appear to think this is not politically feasible.

Some delegates are concerned that the whole process could collapse, given the divisions and lack of trust.

"There is the political will among developing countries. They are working for an agreement that includes further emissions reductions under the Kyoto Protocol," Martin Khor, executive director of the South Centre, an intergovernmental organisation of developing countries, told the BBC.

"Whether there is political will among the industrialised countries is another matter," he said.

Developing nations have been pressing to agree a series of preparatory meetings this year - as many as five - in order that outstanding differences on the text of a new agreement can be worked out in time for the next major summit in Mexico, in November and December.

But delegates here said that richer countries were resisting this, holding out for just one more meeting before November, which would leave no chance of agreeing a new global treaty or even agreeing a framework.

Analyses released since the end of the Copenhagen summit suggest that without further constraints soon, it will be very difficult to keep the rise in average global temperatures since pre-industrial times below 2C, a threshold commonly cited as indicating dangerous climate change.

Cross parties

The US, in particular, is in a sticky situation regarding domestic legislation.

An initial bill, introduced to the Senate last September, is widely seen as having no chance of passing.

A cross-party group of senators has been drawing up a new one, containing concessions to some states and industries.

But this version, if enacted, may reduce US emissions by considerably less than the 17% figure (from 2005 levels by 2020) that President Barack Obama pledged when he addressed Copenhagen.

"There's considerable uncertainty about whether there is going to be a US domestic bill that follows through on the president's 17% commitment," said Alden Meyer, director of strategy and policy at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).

"[The administration is] very sceptical about the ability to get a full-blown legal deal that replaces the Kyoto Protocol or builds on it, given the state of play back home."

As to whether growing scepticism about the science of climate change - evidenced in some US opinion polls - was slowing the legislative process, Mr Meyer suggested it was not.

"The manufactured debate over the science is in our view just an excuse for [opposing senators] not to do what they weren't going to do anyway," he said.

"The attempts to swing votes behind the new bill aren't anything to do with climate science, they're to do with alleviating concerns from industries the senators are close to."

BASIC instinct

Immediately after the Copenhagen summit, the US appeared to have formed a powerful new alliance with the BASIC group of countries - Brazil, China, India and South Africa - that steered through the controversial and weak Copenhagen Accord on the summit's final day.

There were signs that this group saw the accord, with its voluntary nature, as more attractive than the traditional negotiations and supposedly binding commitments of the UN process.

However, the BASIC countries have now affirmed that the UN climate convention (UNFCCC) should be the sovereign body for international climate talks.

More than 120 countries have sent letters to the UNFCCC secretariat saying whether or not they endorse the accord.

A majority do endorse it, but many with the rider that they see it as just a political declaration leading to a full-blown treaty at some stage, and certainly not be a replacement for such a treaty.

Sources said the US was "bullying" small developing countries into endorsing the accord, claiming they would not be eligible for financial help from rich nations unless they did so.

Whereas this accusation appears to be straining relations that were already stretched, there are signs that the EU is preparing to give ground on one of the major demands of developing countries - that further emissions cuts for rich countries are made under the Kyoto Protocol.

In a strategy document released last week, the UK said it was prepared to consider the idea; and other EU leaders are also reportedly sympathetic.

"This is a pretty good first step," said Mr Khor. "It's not enough, but if more countries in the EU take this position, that could be the foundation of something that could be a salvation to this situation."

However, if the EU did formally move in this direction, it would put the bloc at odds with traditional allies such as the US, Canada and Japan.

The meeting here runs until Sunday evening.