U.N. lists Kyoto plan B options if no climate deal

Gerard Wynn Reuters 21 Jul 10;

LONDON (Reuters) - The U.N.'s climate agency has for the first time detailed contingency options if the world cannot agree a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, whose present round expires in 2012 with no new deal in sight.

The document reflects the stuttering pace of U.N. talks to extend or replace the Kyoto pact and disappointment at the outcome of a summit in Copenhagen last December.

Countries which are party to the Kyoto Protocol in June asked the U.N. climate secretariat to report on legal options to avoid a political vacuum or gap.

Kyoto placed carbon emissions caps on nearly 40 developed countries from 2008-2012. Under existing rules, a new round of targets needs the agreement of at least 143 countries -- or three quarters of all parties to the Protocol.

But a new deal appears months or years off, and even after an agreement its implementation would require ratification by the national parliaments or relevant bodies of more than 100 countries. The process of national ratification of the original Protocol took eight years.

"Domestic ratification processes are likely to involve ... national legislative bodies, a process that may involve a considerable amount of time," said the U.N. paper, published online and dated July 20.

Ratifying a successor agreement should be quicker, focused mostly on amending the targets in the existing text.

"A delay in the entry into force beyond 1 January 2013 would result in a gap between the end of the first commitment period and the beginning of the subsequent commitment period (of emissions targets)," the paper added.

CARBON MARKET

Legal remedies to avoiding a gap focused on tweaks to the treaty, such as cutting the number of countries required to approve any new targets or extending the existing caps to 2013 or 2014, the U.N. document said.

U.N. talks are now in their third year to agree a new deal, having missed a deadline in Copenhagen, with the next major conference due to start in November in Cancun, Mexico.

With so little time to agree a complex climate deal, which will shift the way the world supplies and consumes energy away from fossil fuels, attention is shifting to how countries could soften that legal requirement.

However, such changes to the treaty would have to be made "provisional," to avoid relying on lengthy, national approval, which would defeat their purpose.

Such an approach would leave uncertainty over the final form of any deal, the paper acknowledged, doubt which investors say is mounting in particular for the carbon market.

Without a deal by the end of 2012, the future of a $20.6 billion trade in carbon emissions rights under Kyoto was unsure, said the paper, titled "Legal considerations relating to a possible gap between the first and subsequent commitment periods."

The full paper http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/awg13/eng/10.pdf

(Reporting by Gerard Wynn, Editing by Janet Lawrence)

Factbox: What next for the Kyoto Protocol?
Reuters 21 Jul 10;

LONDON (Reuters) - Uncertainty is growing over the future of the Kyoto Protocol, the first legally binding treaty to cut emissions of greenhouse gases blamed for heating up the planet.

Nearly 40 industrialized nations -- all except the United States -- are supposed to meet agreed emissions targets during the pact's 2008-2012 first phase. Many countries are on track to meet their targets.

But agreement appears months or years off on a new round of targets for developed countries from 2013.

The complex talks have seen a stand-off where developed countries want emerging economies, and especially top carbon emitter China, to shoulder more responsibility in the fight against climate change.

The U.N.'s climate agency has for the first time detailed contingency options if the world cannot agree a new round to the pact in time before 2013.

Here are some questions and concerns about Kyoto:

* WHAT IS THE KYOTO PROTOCOL?

It is a pact agreed by governments at a 1997 U.N. conference in Kyoto, Japan, to reduce greenhouse gases emitted by developed countries by an average of 5.2 percent below 1990 levels during 2008-2012.

A total of about 190 nations have ratified the pact. Developing nations do not have binding emissions targets under Kyoto but are encouraged to take voluntary steps to curb the growth of carbon dioxide pollution from power stations, cars and industry.

* IS IT LEGALLY BINDING?

Kyoto has legal force from February 16, 2005. It represents more than 60 percent of developed nations' total emissions.

The United States, the world's second largest carbon emitter after China, decided against implementing Kyoto in 2001, reckoning it would be too expensive and wrongly omitted developing nations from a first round of targets to 2012.

* HOW IS IT ENFORCED?

Countries overshooting their targets in 2012 will have to make both the promised cuts and 30 percent more in a second period from 2013.

* WILL ALL COUNTRIES MEET THEIR TARGETS?

Unlikely. Canada has said it will miss its targets by a wide margin, despite the threat of penalties. This has led to criticism that Kyoto is a failure, raising doubts nations will meet much tougher targets for the second compliance period from 2013.

* SO WILL KYOTO FADE AWAY?

There's a real chance of that happening. Negotiators remain far apart on deciding the shape of a future, broader, climate pact that extends the fight against climate change.

One idea is to extend Kyoto into a second period and create another climate treaty, perhaps based on an Accord agreed in Copenhagen in December which is not legally binding.

Big developing nations India and China, while broadly supporting the Accord, firmly back Kyoto and the current U.N. talks to try to extend it and do not want to turn the Accord into a legal text. The United States refusal to join Kyoto and the failure of the U.S. Congress to pass emissions targets is another big uncertainty.

(Compiled by Alister Doyle, David Fogarty and Gerard Wynn; Editing by Janet Lawrence)