"Big-bang" approach not possible at COP-16, says Jayakumar

S Ramesh Channel NewsAsia 29 Nov 10;

SINGAPORE: Senior Minister S Jayakumar said ministers attending the UN Climate Change Conference, better known as COP-16, starting on Monday in Cancun, agree that a "big-bang" approach is not possible, where all the outstanding issues are resolved in one single meeting.

Professor Jayakumar, who oversees the government's climate change policies, was speaking to the Singapore media together with National Development Minister, Mah Bow Tan and Minister for the Environment and Water Resources, Dr Yaacob Ibrahim.

He explained that all countries acknowledged that a comprehensive, legally-binding global agreement is not achievable by the end of this year.

He said the general consensus is that in Cancun, countries must work towards a balanced package of decisions and will send a strong signal that countries remain committed to the process.

However, Professor Jayakumar said there is still no consensus on what would constitute a balanced package with different countries placing emphasis on different elements.

"The major players are not agreed on how to move the process forward. To compound matters, there is declining domestic political support in some of the major developed economies on climate change.

"Developing countries also want developed countries to take greater responsibility for their past emissions. Developed countries, on the other hand, want developing countries to curtail their future emissions.

"A small group of countries are politically opposed to the Copenhagen Agreement and any elements associated with it...so moving the negotiations forward on the basis of the Copenhagen Agreement has been difficult, even though the Copenhagen Agreement represents a good basis for negotiations."

Singapore supports a balanced package, but such a package of decisions must lead to a future global agreement that is legally-binding.

Professor Jayakumar also acknowledged that climate change negotiations will be a long haul.

"It can go two ways. If there is a positive outcome it will mean a rules-based kind of regime which is better than the other outcome where there is failure in the negotiations and then countries resort to unilateral arbitrary measures which will clearly not be in our interests, including trade barriers and so on. So we prefer a negotiated outcome and therefore we are playing a constructive role.

Professor Jayakumar added that the future climate change regime cannot be based just on political understanding alone, or a non-binding UN General Assembly-type resolution.

It has to be grounded on legally-binding international agreements whereby countries undertake actions on the basis of reciprocity.

Secondly, if any deal is to succeed, there must be reasonable certainty of implementation of all actions and commitments.

"For us if there is to be a rules-based regime, you undertake to cut your emissions by so much, I undertake to cut my emissions by so much, at the end of the day whether it works there must be certainty of implementation.

"If there is a valid point of view of some of the developed countries we do not off hand reject it. Our position to the conference is, we are in this with a common endeavour, let us find solutions which are workable."

While there is no perfect solution, Professor Jayakumar said a legally-binding agreement will help give confidence to governments that this is a global endeavour and that others will not renege on the decisions made.

He said it is possible that Cancun might launch focused negotiations to conclude a legally-binding agreement by COP-17 next year in South Africa and that would depend on the major players and if they are willing to make some incremental progress.

Domestically, Professor Jayakumar explained that Singapore takes its pledge of 16 per cent below Business As Usual by 2020 very seriously, on the provision that there is a binding global agreement.

"We face constraints in terms of our low alternative energy potential. For example, solar has some potential in Singapore but there is limited space to deploy solar panels because of our small land mass and high urban density. There is also insufficient wind speed in Singapore for wind power to be commercially viable.

"In addition, we have also undertaken significant measures to reduce our emissions in the past. For instance, since 2001, the power generation sector, which contributes more than 50 per cent of our total emissions, has been switching from fuel oil to natural gas."

He said in the absence of a global agreement, Singapore will still take significant steps to implement the energy efficiency measures already announced under the Sustainable Singapore Blueprint. One such plan is to install solar panels in HDB estates.

Pilot tests have been going on and more will come on stream.

Mr Mah said: "What these pilot trials do, they will give us a sense of the economics of installation of solar panels, at the same time they are already giving us direct benefits as they are supplying electricity to the common areas and lifts. The results so far have been positive."

These will significantly reduce national emissions and require all households, firms and the economy to make adjustments. There will be trade-offs to be made and hence this required careful study.

Singapore's resilience to global warming is also being studied.

"We are also conducting what is called a Risk Map Study. The idea is to look across our coastlines which are the areas to face a higher risk if there is a sea level rise and what's the possibility of land loss and flooding," said Dr Yaacob.

"We hope to commence the study early the next year and complete by the fourth quarter of 2013. This requires a bit of time as the secondary impact of climate change is a bit more complex for example in the area of biodiversity and public health we need to study the impact of a rise in temperatures on public health in terms of mosquito breedings, these are things we need to understand," Dr Yaacob added.

Professor Jayakumar explained that global warming will lead to rising sea levels which will affect Singapore and future generations may feel the real impact.

"We will have to put in place measures and we are already doing that. If there is a global agreement and countries agree to a legal regime whereby different pledges are made, then we will have to do our part. That will entail some adjustments to the way we conduct ourselves, industries and household as and there may be some other implications like financial implications. What exactly these will be, we have to wait and see."

Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong had recently mentioned at the Singapore Energy Lecture 2010 that a carbon price may be applied to take into account the social cost of carbon emissions.

Professor Jayakumar explained that if there is a global deal to curb carbon emissions and if Singapore has to reduce emissions sharply, the Republic will have to make the carbon price explicit to send the right price signals.

"The mitigation working group looking into this very carefully. It is a complicated matter and we are taking seriously precisely because there are a lot of implications, on the kind of costs it will have on various sectors including the industry, the households and so on.

"The Inter ministerial Committee on Climate Change has directed the working group to finalise its report in the middle of next year and the proposals would have to go through different iterations, stakeholders consulted before it is put up to cabinet and so that's the directive given them. It is being carefully being studied."

Professor Jayakumar said he has called for proposals on policies and measures needed, by middle of next year and will consult with stakeholders, before making the final decisions and announcing them.

-CNA/ac/fa

Singapore wants a climate deal with legal bite
Jessica Cheam Straits Times 30 Nov 10;

SINGAPORE is all for a new approach to this year's United Nations climate change negotiations, but wants the eventual deal to be legally binding.

Senior Minister S. Jayakumar said that such a treaty cannot be based on political understandings alone, but must be legislated to give confidence to governments that all countries will deliver on what they promise.

If a deal is to succeed, there must be reasonable certainty that all commitments will be implemented.

He was speaking at a press conference at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday, just as negotiations began in Cancun, Mexico.

The Cancun talks are aimed at inking a deal that will see all nations curb their greenhouse gas emissions, which scientists say are responsible for climate change.

Last year's talks in Copenhagen were highly divisive and did not yield a global agreement.

Professor Jayakumar, who oversees climate change policy matters, said a 'balanced package' approach to the negotiations this year was more realistic than the 'big bang' approach taken last year.

It would not be possible to have all outstanding issues resolved in a single meeting, he said.

Rather, countries should work towards achieving a more manageable package of decisions that should include issues such as deforestation, finance and technology transfer.

If countries can agree on a new Climate Fund in Cancun, it will help encourage developing countries to adopt measures to deal with the effects of climate change.

He felt that the issue of transparency of developing nations' emissions-curbing actions should also be included in the package.

'If political will is present, it is possible that Cancun might launch focused negotiations to conclude a legally binding agreement by COP-17 next year in South Africa,' he said, referring to next year's Conference of the Parties.

Singapore has pledged to reduce its emissions growth to 16 per cent below 'business as usual' levels by 2020 if a global treaty is reached.

This level refers to how much Singapore would emit if the economy continued to grow but nothing was done to curb emissions.

Also at yesterday's press conference were National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan and Environment and Water Resources Minister Yaacob Ibrahim.

Professor Jayakumar and Dr Yaacob will be representing Singapore in Cancun.

Mr Mah said that while this year's negotiations are unlikely to produce a binding deal, Singapore has already been studying and implementing green measures on many fronts.

Prof Jayakumar said a working group is already studying the possible introduction of a carbon tax and its cost impact on households and industries.

The report will be done by the middle of next year and will go through a consultation process before being finalised.

Dr Yaacob said Singapore is not ruling out any option, not even nuclear energy.

'If technology improves over time, it may become viable for Singapore. So rather than wait for that time, we might as well build up our understanding and expertise for now,' he said.

Former Nominated MP and chief executive of waste-to-energy firm IUT Global Edwin Khew said yesterday that the private sector was waiting for something definitive from the talks to give political certainty.

'Businesses are very concerned about what happens, as any policy will have an impact on companies,' he said.

Singapore Environment Council executive director Howard Shaw noted that Singapore was moving quickly on technology and infrastructure, such as rolling out pilot projects for solar energy and electric vehicles.

'But there is still a lot of work to be done on the software - the hearts and minds of people. Singapore has to look at changing habits,' he said.

Senior Minister S. Jayakumar on...

THE INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS

'We need to look at climate change negotiations as a long-term, long-haul process. We will have COP-17 in South Africa in end-2011.

'South Korea and Qatar are now bidding to host COP-18 the following year. Cancun is one stepping stone in the process.'(COP refers to Conference of the Parties)

WHY MAN IN THE STREET SHOULD CARE

'We have to go with the experts. Global warming will lead to rising sea levels and is going to affect Singapore. It may be generations down the road that may feel the real impact, but we have to put in place measures and we are already doing that.'

Singapore backs Cancun's balanced package move with key caveat
It says package of decisions must result in a legally binding future global pact
Joyce Hooi Business Times 30 Nov 10;

SINGAPORE will be throwing its weight behind the 'balanced package' approach at the ongoing 16th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP16) - with a key caveat.

That package of decisions must eventually result in a future global agreement that is legally binding, Senior Minister and Coordinating Minister for National Security S Jayakumar told the media yesterday.

'The future climate change regime cannot be based just on political understandings alone, best endeavour basis, or a non-binding UN General Assembly-type resolution. It has to be grounded on legally binding international agreements whereby countries undertake actions on the basis of reciprocity,' he said.

The balanced package approach that COP16 is working on in Cancun, Mexico will be a marked departure from the 'big bang' approach that characterised COP15 last year in Copenhagen - where nations tried and failed to get a legally binding global agreement on emissions reduction in one meeting.

According to Professor Jayakumar, Singapore sees the issues of mitigation and measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of pledges as central to the package and negotiations.

'We do not align ourselves with some of the countries who take a doctrinal position of opposing (MRV). . . We must be sure that other countries in Asia and elsewhere are also going to carry out their pledges, or else our competitiveness will be affected,' he said.

While he called the balanced package approach a realistic one, he also acknowledged that it was not without its challenges. 'The balanced package approach still has a big question mark over it as to whether it will succeed,' said Prof Jayakumar.

Singapore's pledge to reduce emissions growth by 16 per cent from 'business-as-usual' levels by 2020 is also conditional on a binding global agreement being reached.

Prof Jayakumar reiterated that regardless of whether such an agreement is achieved, Singapore remains committed to carrying out the Sustainable Singapore Blueprint (SSB). The blueprint has the objective of increasing energy efficiency and reducing the country's emissions, which will contribute to the 16 per cent mitigation pledge.

A key part of the government's sustainability initiatives, the drive to increase energy efficiency in buildings might soon take a more concentrated turn.

While all new buildings currently have to meet minimum environmental standards, there is no such mandatory requirement for existing buildings. That might eventually change.

'We also need to consider mandating minimum standards for existing buildings, down the road,' said Minister for National Development Mah Bow Tan. 'We will consult the industry and study this regulatory option carefully before making a decision.'

Singapore's team, along with its chief negotiator Ambassador Burhan Gafoor, is already in Cancun. Professor Jayakumar and Minister for the Environment and Water Resources Yaacob Ibrahim will join them next week, for the high-level segment of the conference.

Singapore will have something to offer both the developing and developed blocs of countries at COP16, said Professor Jayakumar.

'We bring to the table as an advantage that we are seen to be helpful and not act rigidly, taking a doctrinal position where we think some of the developing countries' views have validity,' he said. 'On the other hand, if there is a valid point of view from some of the developed countries, we do not off-hand reject it.'

Singapore to support legally-binding climate-change deal: Jayakumar
Esther Ng Today Online 30 Nov 10;

SINGAPORE - With the failure to reach a legally-binding agreement at last year's Copenhagen climate change meeting still fresh in his mind, Senior Minister S Jayakumar reiterated yesterday that, ultimately, there would be no two ways about it.

"If you want countries to reduce (carbon) emissions, it must be on the basis that everybody implements what he has pledged on a reciprocal basis. We cannot have a climate change regime based on good faith," said Professor Jayakumar, who would be attending the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Cancun next week with Minister for the Environment and Water Resources Yaacob Ibrahim.

But, there would be no "big-bang" approach at the Cancun meetings, said Prof Jayakumar. What countries will be working towards is a "balanced package", he added.

Noting that negotiations would be a long-haul process, Prof Jayakumar revealed that all countries acknowledged that a comprehensive and legally-binding global agreement was not achievable by the end of the year.

Even then, that must remain the long-term objective, said Prof Jayakumar, who stressed that the climate change regime cannot be based just on political understanding alone or a non-binding UN General Assembly-type resolution.

It has to be grounded on legally-binding international agreements whereby countries undertake actions on the basis of reciprocity, he said. If any deal is to succeed, Prof Jayakumar pointed out, there must be reasonable certainty of implementation of all actions and commitments.

Otherwise, some countries might choose to be lax in implementing climate change measures. And Singapore might lose out economically if companies decide to relocate to such countries, Prof Jayakumar noted.

With Singapore pledging to reduce its emissions growth to 16 per cent below 'business as usual' levels by 2020 if there is a legally binding deal inked, Prof Jayakumar said the Republic would have to do its part even though this would entail some adjustments in the behaviour of industries and households, including "financial implications".

In the meantime, Singapore would take steps to implement energy efficiency measures already announced under the Sustainable Singapore Blueprint, such as making public housing estates and Government buildings more energy efficient.

Said National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan, who was also at the press conference: "(The pilot trials) will give us a sense of the economics of installation of solar panels. At the same time, they are already giving us direct benefits as they are supplying electricity to the common areas and lifts."